| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? 11:01 - May 16 with 2990 views | DJR |
One of Labour's pledges this morning is the following.
5) Crack down on antisocial behaviour with more neighbourhood police paid for by ending wasteful contracts, tough new penalties for offenders, and a new network of youth hubs.
Interestingly though, the following article suggests public perceptions of crime bear no relation to reality. It's almost as if the parties are scaremongering to win votes, which seems a crazy state of affairs.
https://theconversation.com/most-crime-has-fallen-by-90-in-30-years-so-why-does-
Here are some extracts.
Seventy-eight per cent of people in England and Wales think that crime has gone up in the last few years, according to the latest survey. But the data on actual crime shows the exact opposite.
As of 2024, violence, burglary and car crime have been declining for 30 years and by close to 90%, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) – our best indicator of true crime levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording.
The drop in violence includes domestic violence and other violence against women. Anti-social behaviour has similarly declined. While increased fraud and computer misuse now make up half of crime, this mainly reflects how far the rates of other crimes have fallen.
All high-income countries have experienced similar trends, and there is scientific consensus that the decline in crime is a real phenomenon.
There are, of course, exceptions. Some places, times and crime types had a less pronounced decline or even an increase. For many years, phone theft was an exception to the general decline in theft. Cybercrime, measured by the CSEW as fraud and computer misuse, has increased and is the most prominent exception.
But this increase was not due to thwarted burglars and car thieves switching targets: the skillset, resources and rewards for cybercrime are very different. Rather, it reflects new crime opportunities facilitated by the internet. Preventive policy and practice is slowly getting better at closing off opportunities for computer misuse, but work is needed to accelerate those prevention efforts. [Post edited 16 May 11:04]
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:18 - May 16 with 1677 views | chicoazul |
So crime has gone down but the police still don’t solve 93% of them. I strongly suspect this supposed decline has something to do with definitions. |  |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:36 - May 16 with 1641 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:18 - May 16 by chicoazul |
So crime has gone down but the police still don’t solve 93% of them. I strongly suspect this supposed decline has something to do with definitions. |
Yep, I'm inclined to agree. I don't believe any statistics this government trot out. They are constantly fiddling with the definitions of the stats they produce to paint a better picture of their governance. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:40 - May 16 with 1631 views | lowhouseblue |
crime and anti-social behaviour, even when it is declining, isn't evenly distributed. your likelihood of being a victim varies with class and locality. hence why it remains high on the political agenda - a lot of red wall constituencies and voters experience a higher than average incidence of crime and anti-social behaviour. suffolk is towards the bottom of the crime risk regions. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:42 - May 16 with 1598 views | chicoazul |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:36 - May 16 by tonybied |
Yep, I'm inclined to agree. I don't believe any statistics this government trot out. They are constantly fiddling with the definitions of the stats they produce to paint a better picture of their governance. |
The idea violence burglary and car crime is nearly extinct is particularly laughable. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:47 - May 16 with 1573 views | BrentwoodBlagger2 |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:42 - May 16 by chicoazul |
The idea violence burglary and car crime is nearly extinct is particularly laughable. |
Reported crime of that type probably is almost extinct as no one bothers reporting it anymore unless you need a crime reference number for insurance purposes. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:49 - May 16 with 1570 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:36 - May 16 by tonybied |
Yep, I'm inclined to agree. I don't believe any statistics this government trot out. They are constantly fiddling with the definitions of the stats they produce to paint a better picture of their governance. |
Pretty sure the statistics the OP is referring to aren't government statistics. You and chico are essentially just reinforcing the OP's point as well. |  |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:53 - May 16 with 1541 views | lowhouseblue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:47 - May 16 by BrentwoodBlagger2 |
Reported crime of that type probably is almost extinct as no one bothers reporting it anymore unless you need a crime reference number for insurance purposes. |
that's why the article doesn't use police data. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| It’s OK, we’ll have a new government…. on 11:56 - May 16 with 1497 views | Bloots |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:36 - May 16 by tonybied |
Yep, I'm inclined to agree. I don't believe any statistics this government trot out. They are constantly fiddling with the definitions of the stats they produce to paint a better picture of their governance. |
….by the end of the year.
They’ll sort it. |  |
| Enduringly lovable, intelligent and thunderingly exquisite. |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:06 - May 16 with 1458 views | RegencyBlue |
As the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and government statistics!
If crime figures are down then for me there are probably two major reasons:
1. The figures are being skewed by how things are recorded/acknowledged etc.
2. People have given up reporting many crimes to the police because they realise it’s pointless in doing so. The police are hard to contact, unless it’s an out and out emergency, and show little interest in following anything up once you do. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:07 - May 16 with 1438 views | lowhouseblue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:06 - May 16 by RegencyBlue |
As the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and government statistics!
If crime figures are down then for me there are probably two major reasons:
1. The figures are being skewed by how things are recorded/acknowledged etc.
2. People have given up reporting many crimes to the police because they realise it’s pointless in doing so. The police are hard to contact, unless it’s an out and out emergency, and show little interest in following anything up once you do. |
"according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) – our best indicator of true crime levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording." | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:17 - May 16 with 1378 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:49 - May 16 by Herbivore |
Pretty sure the statistics the OP is referring to aren't government statistics. You and chico are essentially just reinforcing the OP's point as well. |
Serves me right for skim reading...
...but as alluded to by another poster above these figures can be massively skewed by the area results are taken from. I live in a not-so-salubrious area in a town in the Midlands. Crimes like fly-tipping and anti-social behaviour are at worse levels than at any point since I moved here nearly 30 years ago. I can't imagine half the families around here would entertain any kind of survey they have been asked to participate in to give these statistics any kind of "real world" merit. The other take from this is car crime is going to be in decline as technology has improved massively over the years to hamper car thieves, you can't just prize a window open and hot-wire a car nowadays. | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:21 - May 16 with 1364 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:06 - May 16 by RegencyBlue |
As the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and government statistics!
If crime figures are down then for me there are probably two major reasons:
1. The figures are being skewed by how things are recorded/acknowledged etc.
2. People have given up reporting many crimes to the police because they realise it’s pointless in doing so. The police are hard to contact, unless it’s an out and out emergency, and show little interest in following anything up once you do. |
These statistics aren't reliant on recording or reporting of crime. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:26 - May 16 with 1336 views | chicoazul |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:53 - May 16 by lowhouseblue |
that's why the article doesn't use police data. |
What data is it based on? All I can see in the article is “from the ONS”. Where does the ons get its stats from? | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:26 - May 16 with 1337 views | WD19 |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:36 - May 16 by tonybied |
Yep, I'm inclined to agree. I don't believe any statistics this government trot out. They are constantly fiddling with the definitions of the stats they produce to paint a better picture of their governance. |
This is not government statistics as most people would consider them, this is the Crime Survey for England and Wales. It is a kosher random probability survey of the UK population and the government has no control over the results and how they are packaged.
In short, any trend shown by this long running survey is real. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:27 - May 16 with 1324 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 11:47 - May 16 by BrentwoodBlagger2 |
Reported crime of that type probably is almost extinct as no one bothers reporting it anymore unless you need a crime reference number for insurance purposes. |
I was going to say the very same thing. I was in an area of particularly high crime until recently. I initially reported a number of crimes I was a victim of. However, I got fed up of waiting ages to get through to speak to someone, and then never have any follow up or a visit, so ended up not bothering to report it.
Neighbours also noted they avoided reporting crimes so as to avoid insurance premiums rising (e.g motor or household where a loading is applied based on local crime rates).
I suspect this is a reduction in crime in the same way Blair ‘reduced’ the number of economically inactive by sending them all to uni… | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:27 - May 16 with 1331 views | WD19 |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:26 - May 16 by chicoazul |
What data is it based on? All I can see in the article is “from the ONS”. Where does the ons get its stats from? |
A company called Verian (previously Kantar Public) does the fieldwork. | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:29 - May 16 with 1323 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:17 - May 16 by tonybied |
Serves me right for skim reading...
...but as alluded to by another poster above these figures can be massively skewed by the area results are taken from. I live in a not-so-salubrious area in a town in the Midlands. Crimes like fly-tipping and anti-social behaviour are at worse levels than at any point since I moved here nearly 30 years ago. I can't imagine half the families around here would entertain any kind of survey they have been asked to participate in to give these statistics any kind of "real world" merit. The other take from this is car crime is going to be in decline as technology has improved massively over the years to hamper car thieves, you can't just prize a window open and hot-wire a car nowadays. |
There are established methodologies for ensuring samples are representative in this kind of research and they use a very large number of participants. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:30 - May 16 with 1309 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:27 - May 16 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was going to say the very same thing. I was in an area of particularly high crime until recently. I initially reported a number of crimes I was a victim of. However, I got fed up of waiting ages to get through to speak to someone, and then never have any follow up or a visit, so ended up not bothering to report it.
Neighbours also noted they avoided reporting crimes so as to avoid insurance premiums rising (e.g motor or household where a loading is applied based on local crime rates).
I suspect this is a reduction in crime in the same way Blair ‘reduced’ the number of economically inactive by sending them all to uni… |
I wonder how many more people are going to say stuff like this without reading the OP or looking into the data it's based on. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:35 - May 16 with 1282 views | lowhouseblue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:26 - May 16 by chicoazul |
What data is it based on? All I can see in the article is “from the ONS”. Where does the ons get its stats from? |
it's survey data - it asks a statistically selected sample of people if they have experienced crime of any sort in the past period. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:38 - May 16 with 1266 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:29 - May 16 by Herbivore |
There are established methodologies for ensuring samples are representative in this kind of research and they use a very large number of participants. |
Indeed, I'm sure that is the case. The point I'm raising is that these surveys will be voluntary, most likely by way of a letter being posted or cold callers knocking on doors both of which are highly likely to be ignored in areas like where I live! | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:41 - May 16 with 1251 views | RegencyBlue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:21 - May 16 by Herbivore |
These statistics aren't reliant on recording or reporting of crime. |
Indeed, that will teach me to read more slowly!
However having checked out the methods used by this survey I have even less faith in the data produced.
Apparently this is based on a sample size for the 2022 to 2023 CSEW of 34,000 interviews per year (this was reduced from 46,000 in the year ending March 2012). So they are asking less people about their experiences of crime in a country where the population increased by the best part of 4 million between 2012 and 2022.
No doubt somebody more intelligent than me will explain why this sort of survey is statistically sound but I still think it’s an exercise in wishful thinking more than anything else. | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:45 - May 16 with 1209 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:41 - May 16 by RegencyBlue |
Indeed, that will teach me to read more slowly!
However having checked out the methods used by this survey I have even less faith in the data produced.
Apparently this is based on a sample size for the 2022 to 2023 CSEW of 34,000 interviews per year (this was reduced from 46,000 in the year ending March 2012). So they are asking less people about their experiences of crime in a country where the population increased by the best part of 4 million between 2012 and 2022.
No doubt somebody more intelligent than me will explain why this sort of survey is statistically sound but I still think it’s an exercise in wishful thinking more than anything else. |
That is a significant sample size and they will have ensured their sampling strategy is representative, so the results will be valid. I think what this thread shows is that the OP is right, basically. People's perceptions of crime are very different from reality. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:46 - May 16 with 1200 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:38 - May 16 by tonybied |
Indeed, I'm sure that is the case. The point I'm raising is that these surveys will be voluntary, most likely by way of a letter being posted or cold callers knocking on doors both of which are highly likely to be ignored in areas like where I live! |
They will sample purposively to ensure they have representation otherwise there is no point at all in doing the survey. If they get more responses from certain demographic and geographical categories than others then there are weighting mechanisms that they use to ensure the data is representative. The survey will have a high degree of validity I am sure. [Post edited 16 May 12:51]
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:03 - May 16 with 1128 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:46 - May 16 by Herbivore |
They will sample purposively to ensure they have representation otherwise there is no point at all in doing the survey. If they get more responses from certain demographic and geographical categories than others then there are weighting mechanisms that they use to ensure the data is representative. The survey will have a high degree of validity I am sure. [Post edited 16 May 12:51]
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If you don't have the data from all groups then surely overall data is not representative no matter how you weigh it up! | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:08 - May 16 with 1098 views | eireblue |
Perceptions, from what studies I have seen in the past, are mostly informed by news and media, not what actually happens.
E.g. in the US when gun crimes have gone down, but reporting has gone up, perception is gun crime is worse, when it isn’t. |  | | |
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