| What's next ref Suellagate? 10:47 - Nov 14 with 3233 views | bluelagos |
So Sunak's move was fairly clear - sacked Suella, cleared out some of the cr*p and clearly shifted the govt towards the center.
The "New Conservatives", "The common sense" group and other Suella cheerleaders will be miffed - they were clearly behind her and will be far from happy at recent moves.
One letter of no confidence has gone in (From Andrea Jenkins) but that aside seems very quiet with very little noise from them (Including Tom Hunt, vice chairman of the Common Sense group). Even Rees-Mogg half welcomed Cameron's appointment.
So what's next? Are they going to go for Rishi or hold their ire until after the election? Just waiting 'til Wednesday's court ruling on the Rwanda scheme?
Or are they are a busted flush? Can the post Brexit realignment really be being ditched and are the experiments of letting the far right Brexiteers run things finally be a thing of the past?
Thoughts?
[Post edited 14 Nov 2023 11:34]
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 10:53 - Nov 14 with 2687 views | nrb1985 |
I doubt much will happen pre election.
What would be the point in toppling Sunak, if indeed they even can, just for her to lose the election in the next 12 months?
Sadly I fear you're on the wrong path with your last paragraph as much as I wish it was true :( They have used so much of the Trump playbook to date but it doesn't resonate here like in the U.S. as we are a far less divided country (even now) than in the U.S.
I fear their solution therefore is to double down until we are divided enough for them to get traction. Hence you had the actual Home Secretary last week trying to instigate a race riot! They may also be emboldened by the fact Trump will likely be the next President too. |  | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 10:55 - Nov 14 with 2673 views | Pinewoodblue |
Wednesday’s debate in HoC is “Conclusion of adjourned debate: Reducing serious violence and violence against women and girls, and raising confidence in policing and the criminal justice system”
Expect Suella to contribute, all guns blazing. |  |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:00 - Nov 14 with 2648 views | ElderGrizzly |
I can't see anything before an election now. Certainly not publicly.
She'll come out and have a go at him, but that will be it.
What will be interesting is to see how Reform play up to the 'disenfranchised'. Do we see defections? An alliance? |  | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:01 - Nov 14 with 2639 views | bluelagos |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 10:55 - Nov 14 by Pinewoodblue |
Wednesday’s debate in HoC is “Conclusion of adjourned debate: Reducing serious violence and violence against women and girls, and raising confidence in policing and the criminal justice system”
Expect Suella to contribute, all guns blazing. |
Am sure she'll contribute but if she goes all in, two footed and nothing comes of it, then she is very much a busted flush surely?
Have been surprised at how little vocal support she has received from within the parliamentary party. She's been proven to be ineffective at introducing changes, much like Patel before her. Hot bluster might excite some but ultimately her supporters want change - and she's failed miserably on that front.
That said - if Wednesday's ruling allows deportations to Rwanda then I guess she will be further emboldened... | |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:04 - Nov 14 with 2611 views | bluelagos |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:00 - Nov 14 by ElderGrizzly |
I can't see anything before an election now. Certainly not publicly.
She'll come out and have a go at him, but that will be it.
What will be interesting is to see how Reform play up to the 'disenfranchised'. Do we see defections? An alliance? |
Does feel a bit like Rishi has called their bluff and they have stood back from the fight.
Guess Wednesday will be the day when it becomes clearer what she'll do and how many will follow her. | |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:20 - Nov 14 with 2553 views | Steve_M |
Lots of Tory infighting, picked up by credulous 'journalists' like Cole and Hodges. Slightly improved government as Cameron and Cleverly is clearly an upgrade on where we were last week. Not much else and every chance Sunak manages another three pivots this side of Christmas.
Also, the most damning evidence about Sunak is clearly that he appointed her in the first place:
[Post edited 14 Nov 2023 11:26]
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:26 - Nov 14 with 2500 views | Swansea_Blue |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:20 - Nov 14 by Steve_M |
Lots of Tory infighting, picked up by credulous 'journalists' like Cole and Hodges. Slightly improved government as Cameron and Cleverly is clearly an upgrade on where we were last week. Not much else and every chance Sunak manages another three pivots this side of Christmas.
Also, the most damning evidence about Sunak is clearly that he appointed her in the first place:
[Post edited 14 Nov 2023 11:26]
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I’m struggling to think of anything that could damage his reputation further, short of murder or being a Norwich supporter. |  |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:32 - Nov 14 with 2468 views | WeWereZombies |
I wonder if any more Conservative 'wets' are likely to be let back into the party, Parliament, the Cabinet even. Do we see a return to prominence for Theresa May, Phil Hammond, Rory Stewart ? Whatever happens I guess they look a bit more electable now, they even have Cameron in place to become the 'Comeback Kid' if Sunak does start to look a total loss to the electorate. Perhaps a bigger question is what does this all mean for Labour, can they respond by differentiating themselves more clearly from the Government without incurring negative media coverage ? |  |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:38 - Nov 14 with 2434 views | Mookamoo |
There will be some huffing and puffing from Braverman and the right of the Tory party, but they all hate Sunak and Cameron anyway, so I'm not sure it will make much difference.
What will make a difference is those on the right that truly believe in Trussonomics. The tax burden is much more of a political problem for Sunak that Braverman's antics. If there is some sort of movement that combines Braverman's language and demands for sweeping tax cuts prior to the election, Sunak might have a problem.
I think they all know they're too close to the election to make too many waves though. Having said that, they're all idiots so I wont put anything past them. |  | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:39 - Nov 14 with 2430 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
Ministers who resign are allowed to make a speech to the House of Commons.
In the past one or two have been assassination attempts.
She will be weighing her options. Many Tory grandees will be offering her wise counsel to keep her powder dry, maintain a dignified silence, and play the long game. They will tell her that is in her long term interests, but they really will mean that it is in the Party's interests.
The people closest to her should be helping her to work out whether she has the emotional energy to begin the internal war now. It is unlikely that she would be able to persuade over half the current Tory MPs to back her and decapitate Sunak. But she could begin the offensive now and thus be in the pole position after/"if" he loses the next General Election.
But the key question is whether she has the energy and inner resources to go all out now and sustain that for the next 18 months, with constant scrutiny and a permanent need to be working the tea rooms at Westminster, driving round the country to appear to local Conservative Associations, and everything else that playing the long game might entail.
Only the people who are closest to her will be able to advise her on whether she is in the best place herself to do that right now. And who knows whether she will listen to them if they don't tell her what she wants to hear?
I think she seems a touch on the edge, and I question whether she has the depth of inner resources to go to war with the Prime Minister and half her Parliamentary colleagues right now. Then there is the whole other question of whether she has the wit to do it in a manner which means that she is seen as the oracle and prophet who warned against an upcoming General Election defeat, rather than caused it by dividing the party and distracting the Prime Minister.
Penny Mordaunt seems so much more comfortable in her own skin, and seems to have the ability to glide, swan-like, up the rankings, whereas it all seems such an effort for Braverman. | | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:39 - Nov 14 with 2428 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
Has Sunak actually verbalised his reasoning for sacking Suella? I was hoping to see him squirm as he explained it in diplomatic terms but I haven't seen anything other than she's gone. Was there an official line put out? |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:41 - Nov 14 with 2421 views | baxterbasics |
Suella and her supporters would be nuts to make moves pre-election, unless she is happy risking it all just for an unlikely shot at being PM for six months. The party as a whole would be nuts to facilitate any more leadership contests. The two it has been through (since winning a decent majority) have been damaging and chaotic enough (remember the phrase 'strong and stable'!) . IMO they should have stuck with BJ and let the voters decide next year.
Also, whoever takes over post-election wipeout should be prepared for a long haul in opposition, history suggests it will be two labour terms minimum. Tories went through three leaders before David Cameron got his shot. |  |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:47 - Nov 14 with 2360 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:01 - Nov 14 by bluelagos |
Am sure she'll contribute but if she goes all in, two footed and nothing comes of it, then she is very much a busted flush surely?
Have been surprised at how little vocal support she has received from within the parliamentary party. She's been proven to be ineffective at introducing changes, much like Patel before her. Hot bluster might excite some but ultimately her supporters want change - and she's failed miserably on that front.
That said - if Wednesday's ruling allows deportations to Rwanda then I guess she will be further emboldened... |
She should skip this debate. It is Jess Phillips' home turf and it will be Braverman's (and all the many other Tory Home Secretaries') record under scrutiny.
Let's see, but it would be idiotic to sit there whilst Phillips is giving it both barrels.
And then Yvette Cooper, and Harriet Harman, and Mhairi Black and Angela Eagle and Caroline Lucas to dissect the Tory record further.
If she turns up and speaks then I can't see it ending well for her.
She doesn't need to, right now. Better to keep the "will she, won't she" mystique. | | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:50 - Nov 14 with 2347 views | WeWereZombies |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:41 - Nov 14 by baxterbasics |
Suella and her supporters would be nuts to make moves pre-election, unless she is happy risking it all just for an unlikely shot at being PM for six months. The party as a whole would be nuts to facilitate any more leadership contests. The two it has been through (since winning a decent majority) have been damaging and chaotic enough (remember the phrase 'strong and stable'!) . IMO they should have stuck with BJ and let the voters decide next year.
Also, whoever takes over post-election wipeout should be prepared for a long haul in opposition, history suggests it will be two labour terms minimum. Tories went through three leaders before David Cameron got his shot. |
Sticking with Boris Johnson would have meant having a Prime Minister who came terribly out of the COVID-19 inquiry, it was bad enough for him as a recent Member of Parliament but as Prime Minister surely he would have had to resign over the matter ? | |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:56 - Nov 14 with 2306 views | bluelagos |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:50 - Nov 14 by WeWereZombies |
Sticking with Boris Johnson would have meant having a Prime Minister who came terribly out of the COVID-19 inquiry, it was bad enough for him as a recent Member of Parliament but as Prime Minister surely he would have had to resign over the matter ? |
From the evidence coming out seems clear BJ never was fit for PM position (Even to his supporters). But surely if the Tories had stuck with him then he would have ensured the inquiry was delayed until after the election?
I'll be honest - am amazed the Tories haven't engineered it so that it is delayed. For sure the findings will be post election but nothing that is coming out is painting them in a good light. | |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:57 - Nov 14 with 2304 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:50 - Nov 14 by WeWereZombies |
Sticking with Boris Johnson would have meant having a Prime Minister who came terribly out of the COVID-19 inquiry, it was bad enough for him as a recent Member of Parliament but as Prime Minister surely he would have had to resign over the matter ? |
And a Prime Minister who appointed a Deputy Chief Whip who was accused of sexually assaulting members of staff and possibly Members of Parliament openly and with impunity.
They gave Johnson a free pass over many things that hurt others, but drew the line when they were at risk of being violated themselves. | | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:02 - Nov 14 with 2265 views | bluelagos |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:57 - Nov 14 by ArnoldMoorhen |
And a Prime Minister who appointed a Deputy Chief Whip who was accused of sexually assaulting members of staff and possibly Members of Parliament openly and with impunity.
They gave Johnson a free pass over many things that hurt others, but drew the line when they were at risk of being violated themselves. |
"...drew the line when they were at risk of being violated themselves"
Nah, that was the straw that broke the camel's back. It was an accumulation and slow realisation that he was wholly unfit for the position. Dishonesty, especially his constant lies over partygate, will never go down well with the electorate.
Once he moved from being an electoral asset or an electoral liability he was toast. They will always act in their own interests... | |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:04 - Nov 14 with 2229 views | BlueBadger |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:02 - Nov 14 by bluelagos |
"...drew the line when they were at risk of being violated themselves"
Nah, that was the straw that broke the camel's back. It was an accumulation and slow realisation that he was wholly unfit for the position. Dishonesty, especially his constant lies over partygate, will never go down well with the electorate.
Once he moved from being an electoral asset or an electoral liability he was toast. They will always act in their own interests... |
It wasn't even the realisation that he was wholly unfit.
He was wholly unfit in 2019. They didn't care because he did politics equivalent of buying away fans a beer and inviting Terry Butcher out for lunch which the easily conned lapped up.
They got rid because he'd become deeply, deeply unpopular. |  |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:12 - Nov 14 with 2155 views | StokieBlue |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 11:01 - Nov 14 by bluelagos |
Am sure she'll contribute but if she goes all in, two footed and nothing comes of it, then she is very much a busted flush surely?
Have been surprised at how little vocal support she has received from within the parliamentary party. She's been proven to be ineffective at introducing changes, much like Patel before her. Hot bluster might excite some but ultimately her supporters want change - and she's failed miserably on that front.
That said - if Wednesday's ruling allows deportations to Rwanda then I guess she will be further emboldened... |
One could very reasonably argue that someone fired from the same job twice is already a busted flush.
The fact that might not be the case is an insight into the state of our politics at present.
SB |  |
| Avatar - M51 - The Whirlpool Galaxy - Taken on 29th April 2024 |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:58 - Nov 14 with 2018 views | crouchendyachtclub |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 10:53 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
I doubt much will happen pre election.
What would be the point in toppling Sunak, if indeed they even can, just for her to lose the election in the next 12 months?
Sadly I fear you're on the wrong path with your last paragraph as much as I wish it was true :( They have used so much of the Trump playbook to date but it doesn't resonate here like in the U.S. as we are a far less divided country (even now) than in the U.S.
I fear their solution therefore is to double down until we are divided enough for them to get traction. Hence you had the actual Home Secretary last week trying to instigate a race riot! They may also be emboldened by the fact Trump will likely be the next President too. |
I am aligned to this view.
Currently the papers (Murdoch and Rothermere) sit to the right of the majority of the British public. They are stoking a culture war to detract from economic policies that will provide an even larger moat around the 1% and in their Tufton Street disciples they've found a willing audience in a small number of tory MPs.
The question for me is will they succeed in pulling the British public to the right, or will they move back to the centre when they realise that they won't succeed. The Sun back Labour when it was clear that they'd captured the goodwill of the public so it will be interesting to see how they react if Starmer does win by a landslide at the next election.
Until there is a pivot on that front though I (mostly just copying the view of Alastair Campbell) suspect that Suella will be the front runner for leadership from that right wing of the Tory party and have a good shot at leadership. Who takes over after her 4 years of ineffective opposition is currently anyone's guess though, nobody on that right side of the party has the charisma and competence required to turn things around as they stand. Either they move back to the centre and become competitive again, the public gradually moves right or a black swan event occurs that knocks Labour sideways, otherwise I can see them being out of power for at least 3 terms. Especially if just by being vaguely competent Labour can bring back their 90s feel good factor. | | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 13:17 - Nov 14 with 1965 views | nrb1985 |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:58 - Nov 14 by crouchendyachtclub |
I am aligned to this view.
Currently the papers (Murdoch and Rothermere) sit to the right of the majority of the British public. They are stoking a culture war to detract from economic policies that will provide an even larger moat around the 1% and in their Tufton Street disciples they've found a willing audience in a small number of tory MPs.
The question for me is will they succeed in pulling the British public to the right, or will they move back to the centre when they realise that they won't succeed. The Sun back Labour when it was clear that they'd captured the goodwill of the public so it will be interesting to see how they react if Starmer does win by a landslide at the next election.
Until there is a pivot on that front though I (mostly just copying the view of Alastair Campbell) suspect that Suella will be the front runner for leadership from that right wing of the Tory party and have a good shot at leadership. Who takes over after her 4 years of ineffective opposition is currently anyone's guess though, nobody on that right side of the party has the charisma and competence required to turn things around as they stand. Either they move back to the centre and become competitive again, the public gradually moves right or a black swan event occurs that knocks Labour sideways, otherwise I can see them being out of power for at least 3 terms. Especially if just by being vaguely competent Labour can bring back their 90s feel good factor. |
On your last paragraph, I know of one senior person at a right wing newspaper (who is also a Town fan and hails from this parish) whose base case is that they'll lurch to the right post Rishi, then potentially Farage (god help us), before eventually in two or three cycles coming back to the centre and finding a Cameron mark II.
However, as you say, the above thesis relies on the right wing press and the like of GB News not being able to pull the country away from the centre ground. [Post edited 14 Nov 2023 13:18]
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 14:00 - Nov 14 with 1887 views | Ryorry |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 12:58 - Nov 14 by crouchendyachtclub |
I am aligned to this view.
Currently the papers (Murdoch and Rothermere) sit to the right of the majority of the British public. They are stoking a culture war to detract from economic policies that will provide an even larger moat around the 1% and in their Tufton Street disciples they've found a willing audience in a small number of tory MPs.
The question for me is will they succeed in pulling the British public to the right, or will they move back to the centre when they realise that they won't succeed. The Sun back Labour when it was clear that they'd captured the goodwill of the public so it will be interesting to see how they react if Starmer does win by a landslide at the next election.
Until there is a pivot on that front though I (mostly just copying the view of Alastair Campbell) suspect that Suella will be the front runner for leadership from that right wing of the Tory party and have a good shot at leadership. Who takes over after her 4 years of ineffective opposition is currently anyone's guess though, nobody on that right side of the party has the charisma and competence required to turn things around as they stand. Either they move back to the centre and become competitive again, the public gradually moves right or a black swan event occurs that knocks Labour sideways, otherwise I can see them being out of power for at least 3 terms. Especially if just by being vaguely competent Labour can bring back their 90s feel good factor. |
"suspect that Suella will be the front runner for leadership from that right wing of the Tory party and have a good shot at leadership"
I very much doubt it. She doesn't have the 'charm' factor to rely on that Johnson did once the appalling politics, incompetence & corruption were all laid bare; and I suspect most tory MPs know that she's likely to be very unappealing to even dyed-in-the-wool-blue voters too. |  |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 14:06 - Nov 14 with 1861 views | baxterbasics |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 13:17 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
On your last paragraph, I know of one senior person at a right wing newspaper (who is also a Town fan and hails from this parish) whose base case is that they'll lurch to the right post Rishi, then potentially Farage (god help us), before eventually in two or three cycles coming back to the centre and finding a Cameron mark II.
However, as you say, the above thesis relies on the right wing press and the like of GB News not being able to pull the country away from the centre ground. [Post edited 14 Nov 2023 13:18]
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You may be right in terms of how this plays out - Tories went from Hague (in my opinion excellent but came out the blocks far too soon - he could have cured cancer and figured out how to turn lead into gold and still lose to Blair) to Duncan-Smith, who was a grassroots/right of the party favourite but no charisma or wide appeal, to caretaker/ship-steadier Howard (safer-pair of hands but old guard) before Cameron took the stage. A young and fresh face who at least gave the impression of a return to the centre (appreciate not everyone agrees on describing Cameron as moderate or centre, but he did persuade just enough of middle-England as much to win power).
My prediction looking forwards, Mordaunt (poss Tugendhat) will be the next Hague, Braverman or Badenoch the Duncan-Smith, Hunt the Michael Howard, and someone as yet unknown will be the Cameron about ten years from now. | |
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| What's next ref Suellagate? on 14:34 - Nov 14 with 1822 views | nrb1985 |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 14:06 - Nov 14 by baxterbasics |
You may be right in terms of how this plays out - Tories went from Hague (in my opinion excellent but came out the blocks far too soon - he could have cured cancer and figured out how to turn lead into gold and still lose to Blair) to Duncan-Smith, who was a grassroots/right of the party favourite but no charisma or wide appeal, to caretaker/ship-steadier Howard (safer-pair of hands but old guard) before Cameron took the stage. A young and fresh face who at least gave the impression of a return to the centre (appreciate not everyone agrees on describing Cameron as moderate or centre, but he did persuade just enough of middle-England as much to win power).
My prediction looking forwards, Mordaunt (poss Tugendhat) will be the next Hague, Braverman or Badenoch the Duncan-Smith, Hunt the Michael Howard, and someone as yet unknown will be the Cameron about ten years from now. |
The same guy said in his view, albeit with a lower conviction, it would be Badenoch next before Farage. | | | |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 14:52 - Nov 14 with 1778 views | Mookamoo |
| What's next ref Suellagate? on 14:06 - Nov 14 by baxterbasics |
You may be right in terms of how this plays out - Tories went from Hague (in my opinion excellent but came out the blocks far too soon - he could have cured cancer and figured out how to turn lead into gold and still lose to Blair) to Duncan-Smith, who was a grassroots/right of the party favourite but no charisma or wide appeal, to caretaker/ship-steadier Howard (safer-pair of hands but old guard) before Cameron took the stage. A young and fresh face who at least gave the impression of a return to the centre (appreciate not everyone agrees on describing Cameron as moderate or centre, but he did persuade just enough of middle-England as much to win power).
My prediction looking forwards, Mordaunt (poss Tugendhat) will be the next Hague, Braverman or Badenoch the Duncan-Smith, Hunt the Michael Howard, and someone as yet unknown will be the Cameron about ten years from now. |
If you want a name for the 'Cameron about ten years from now', how about Alicia Kearns. Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee is a good way to get a name and build alliances.
They will go for Tugendhat next | | | |
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