 If Stats Won Games: Ipswich 3-1 LeedsWritten by Kropotkin123 on Sunday, 30th Nov 2014 00:46 Born out of the impending tedium of the international break. Popularised through shameless self-promotion. Forced by GavTWTD from the depths of the forum to the dizzying heights of blog status. Ostensibly here for content, but perhaps more likely so PhilTWTD can make it comprehensible. It’s the third instalment of If Stats Won Games. Last Match Prediction Charlton 1-1 Ipswich: Incorrect Charlton to score in the first half: Incorrect Ipswich to score in the second half: Correct Charlton to score between 0-15mins: Incorrect Ipswich to score between 61-75mins: Incorrect Overall success rate: 20% Conclusion: Charlton really let me down on this one. It is probably worth noting that Leeds will get a disproportionate amount of abuse in this blog. It’s not due to the fact that they are the dirtiest team in the league - top of the all competitions discipline table. Rather, on May 15th 2014, Leeds United retired their number 17 shirt due to Massimo Cellino's somewhat bizarre superstition relating to that number. This is, indubitably, nonsense; and furthermore it a clear insult to the axioms of probability. In reality, Cellino should consider himself lucky if Leeds manage to finish 17th this season. Leeds are heavily reliant on their home form, picking up a massive 78% of their points at Elland Road. Sure, victories against Derby and Boro suggest an underlying potential for causing an upset. However with a meagre five points taken from away fixtures, we should have nothing to fear. Being at Portman Road then, this game should be considered an excellent opportunity to secure three points, and potentially propel us from third to first in the home league table. The foundation of this home form is an impressive six goals conceded. This has helped spur us on to victory in 67% of home games, losing a mere 11%. Leeds' away record, as you now know, is atrocious. They sit 21st in the away league table, and could scrape into 17th, on goal difference, if they achieve victory at The Fortress. Their away record is a complete reversal to our home record. They have lost 67% of games, and won 11%. Whilst their sole away win came against a highly respected southern side – Bournemouth. Ipswich’s came against some poor northern outfit – Norwich. I would encourage anyone who can get down to Portman Road on Saturday to do so. Leeds have conceded in 100% of their away games. Ipswich have scored in their last 15 games. In 60% of Ipswich’s home games, we have score two goals. In 60% of Leeds away games, they have conceded two or more goals. In 44% of home games we have conceded one goal. In a further 44% of home games, we have kept a clean sheet. In 78% of away games Leeds have score one or more goals. 2-1 is looking highly likely, but when will we score? Out of our 14 home goals this season, only one has occurred between 16-30 mins. Out of the 18 goals Leeds have conceded away from home, only one has occurred between 16-30 mins. So, nearly no chance we will see a goal in the 17th minute this weekend. Ipswich’s scoring at home is pretty evenly distributed, with 43% of our goals occurring in the first half. With this high percentage, I am obligated to state that we are most likely to open our account between 31-45 mins. 21% of our home goals have come at this point in the match, which is tied with 61-75 mins and 76-90 mins. Leeds have conceded a massive 10 goals in the last 30mins of away games, which are evenly split, five-a-piece, when divided into their 15-minute sections. This atrocious statistic, couple with our scoring statistics, means I am once again obligated to give us a goal in both 61-75 mins and 76-90 mins. Leeds will score their goal between 76-90mins, as 50% of their away goals have been score here, and 50% of our home goals have been conceded here. Unfortunately, the statistics do not indicate whether they will give us a scare by pegging us back to 2-1, or whether we will concede whilst we are coasting at 3-0. So there you have it, what looked like a definite 2-1 victory, is now the first time we will hit 3 this season. Enjoy it people! Summary Ipswich 3-1 Leeds No-one scores in the 17th minute Ipswich score between 31-45mins Ipswich score between 61-75mins Ipswich score between 76-90mins Leeds score between 76-90mins NB: I’ve asked PhilTWTD to retire the 17th comment option to help our cause, but he’s assured me this blog won’t be that popular. Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.
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