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If Stats Won Games: Bolton 1-1 Ipswich
Written by Kropotkin123 on Wednesday, 10th Dec 2014 11:32

Not good enough to have associated pictures. Not interesting enough to be a feature. Not veridical enough to assist gamblers.

Neither detailed nor eloquent enough to be talked about in the same breathe as HarryFromBath. It’s the brand new instalment of If Stats Won Games.

[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]

Ipswich 3-1 Leeds: Incorrect

First time we will score more than two goals: Correct (one in 20 chance, called it like a pro!)

No one to score in the 17th minute: Correct

Ipswich score between 31-45mins: Correct

Ipswich score between 61-75mins: Incorrect

Ipswich score between 76-90mins: Incorrect

Leeds score between 76-90mins: Incorrect

Overall success rate: 43%

Conclusion: We scored more than two!!

Ipswich face Bolton in what is, statistically, the worst time of the season, so far. On paper the game may seem relatively straight forward, due to their position in the table. However, Bolton have won four straight home games, including a 3-1 victory over Brentford, who were in impressive form themselves, prior to receiving the curse we narrowly avoided.

Perhaps we can take some comfort though, from the fact that two of those teams are in the bottom six, and their win against Brentford is an anomaly in the wider context of top six opponents. Bolton have lost to the other three top six sides that they have faced at home this season.

Similarly to Leeds, Bolton are highly dependent on their home form. Bolton have won 50% of their home games, compared to losing 70% of their away games. Unlike last week though, we have the misfortune of playing them away from home.

When Neil Lennon took over, Bolton’s fortunes started to change, and it would be unwise to ignore his affect. If we take the league table over the last nine games, Ipswich are third and Bolton are fourth. This is not like Leeds, it is no longer an easy game, we must take our good form to Bolton, if we are to get something from the game.

Ipswich’s form is still highly impressive. One loss in 15. Scored in our last 16, six wins in our last seven. Our top scorer is on course to get 29.9 goals this season. It was suggested in the chatroom that new goal-line technology will be the likely reason for the 0.9. In all seriousness, if this Ipswich team was coming to my ground, I would be happy with a point.

Chances are, this is what we’ll get. Fifty per cent of our away games have been a draw. If we treat Bolton as a top six side, which is how they have been performing, 100% of our away games against top six sides have been draws.

However, Bolton have only drawn 20% of their home games. This statistic was at 33% prior to Lennon taking over. In fact, since Lennon has taken over, Bolton have won 100% of their home games. Four home games though, cannot be taken in isolation, and recent draws to Blackpool and Reading show that they aren’t sweeping everyone aside.

The statistics really are in uncharted water then. The safest prediction, in this case, would be a score draw. It is a little non-committal, but there are too many conflicting statistics to come to a different perspective. On this basis, we are most likely to witness a 1-1 draw, despite Bolton only partaking in this score line 5% of the time this season.

On the account of there being absolutely no correlation between when we score away from home and when they concede at home, it is best to look at when we score. Our away goal is most likely to be scored between 16-30 mins or 61-75 mins, where we have score four goals apiece this season. At a flip of a coin, 16-30 becomes the most likely

With the 29% chance of Bolton scoring a goal between 76-90 mins, and a 15% chance of Ipswich conceding in between 76-90 mins, this is probably the most certain occurrence in the entire blog. Aside from this underlining the fragility of this week’s predictions, it should also reflect on what an impressive positive change Lennon has made to Bolton’s results, since joining in mid-October.

Next Saturday we’ll see for ourselves what’s going on at Bolton, and how these unruly statistics manifest on the pitch, but I can’t stress enough how foolish we would be to think this will be an easy game. Due to their change of manager and the extreme lack of correlation, this was definitely the most difficult one to write so far. I hope Ipswich fair better!

[b]In summary[/b]

Bolton 1-1 Ipswich

Ipswich to score first

Ipswich to score between 16-30mins

Bolton to score between 76-90mins




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Carrotblue added 15:09 - Dec 10
Take that
draw your awy games win your home and you are up
1

Carrotblue added 15:09 - Dec 10
even away
0

paulthebluealien added 18:27 - Dec 10
Wouldn't be to dissatisfied with a point - then go on and beat Middlesbrough.
2

GeoffSentence added 20:22 - Dec 10
I love these Kropotkin, even if you do talk a load of bollix :)
2

Kropotkin123 added 01:34 - Dec 11
:P

I was panicking earlier, when no-one was commenting. But people will have to suffer me for another week, now that I have positive feedback!
3

TR11BLU added 09:19 - Dec 12
Love these weekly prediction/sitrep blogs
Bring back the gambling blog, was it SE Blue?

Would take a point....but we will win!!

Keep up the good work Kropotkin123

2
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