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Is It All Over?
Written by paulthebluealien on Wednesday, 8th Apr 2015 12:21

Sorry, that title is meant to be completely tongue-in-cheek and a slight dig at those Ipswich fans who have suddenly become disillusioned with our promotion push over the course of a single game.

Before we start, let me just say I was at the Huddersfield and like every other Ipswich fan trailing out after the game I was frustrated at what I viewed.

Mostly, however, at just how poor we were in the first half. It was for me, almost as bad as the dark days under Paul Jewell and the Dark Lord where we simply had no idea what to do with the ball. We hoofed it and huffed and puffed but had absolutely no end product.

Then, I come onto here afterwards and see people taking one look at the league table and automatically branding the season over. Then, people decided to participate in the TWTD League Calculator and place Ipswich into eighth. Before the game we were dead certs for coming sixth or, even more extraordinarily, fifth!

The league table does not lie. We are sat on 68 points and both Brentford (69), Wolves (71) and Derby (71) sit above us. Now that doesn't read particularly encouraging with only five games left of this season. But is it all over for Ipswich?

Of course it isn't. This blog will build a strong case as to why our season is by no means over. Hopefully, in doing so, it will lead to a few of the more idiotic fans to reconsider their naive positions that followed our recent result.

Now firstly, let's have a look at the fixtures. Wolves especially, actually still have a worse goal difference for starters, similar to Brentford, and they have difficult away trips away to Birmingham and then Middlesbrough who are hunting down automatic promotion. A gimme six points? I doubt it.

Meanwhile, Derby play Brentford, meaning one of them or both will drop points. Let's say for argument's sake that Derby beat Brentford and Wolves nick a point at Birmingham (a derby remember so anybody thinking Birmingham won't be up for it are mistaken) and Town beat Blackpool.

That would leave Derby fairly well cemented on 74 points. Ipswich would be on 71, Wolves on 72 and Brentford on 69. Town would also still have a superior goal difference over Wolves.

HANG ON. That table does not look even twice as bad. Even if Wolves were to win at Birmingham they'd then face Middlesbrough and then us. If we win our next two home games, which admittedly we really could do with, we'll go to Wolves on the 18th dead bang in contention. Beat Wolves and we go ahead of them with two games left. And what if Brentford pull off a result at Derby? That simply drags Derby back into the mix.

Indeed, that scenario would read Brentford on 72, Wolves 72 (if they drew), Derby on 71 and Ipswich on 71. Exciting, huh?

What I'm trying to point out is before we jump to blunt conclusions take a quick look at the fixtures and you'll see, as ours are, that there are no games that will be simply won. There will be thrills and spills to come.

Let us not forget that the Championship top eight has been changing consistently throughout the season. Moreover, Wolves' other fixtures consist of games against Wigan and Millwall. Two teams who will need to pick up points for survival. I would rather face Blackburn and Nottingham Forest like Town than the previous two for that simple reason.

Moreover, both Brentford and Derby as well as playing each other also face a game against either Millwall or Wigan respectively. Brentford face Wigan on the last day were chances are Wigan may need a win to stay in this division whilst Derby travel to Millwall second from last where a similar scenario may be faced.

Town also have home advantage. We have won 12 out of 20 home games this season which is an admirable effort. We have Blackpool, Cardiff and Forest to come to Portman Road. These are all winnable games and, of course, to stand any chance we do need to win these games. Or, pick up a win at Wolves.

Of course, this is all very hypothetical. But we also have experience on our side with Mick McCarthy and as my mate said to me in reply to my blunt text of frustration after Huddersfield, "McCarthy will be firing rockets up their arses in these next games, starting against Blackpool."

He's spot on. There is absolutely no way that McCarthy will accept a dire display like Huddersfield on Saturday. As a crowd it is important we get behind the lads and beat Blackpool, put them to bed and see where it leaves us.

My message? Don't give up yet. Because quite simply, it is not over. Many will suggest that we need everything to go our way, and my response is no. We have three points to make up. With Wolves still to play it is a big task but not a mammoth one. We can still do this and if we can sneak into the top six then anything is possible.

COYB. Give us a follow at https://twitter.com/puffman180 to hear more than often, controversial views.




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Fatboy added 13:05 - Apr 8
It's worth noting that the bar for the play-offs is particularly high this season. A few years back, Leicester finished sixth with 68 points; the same total we reached this season with six games remaining! Teams in Leagues One and Two with similar points totals to us are sitting comfortably in the play-offs. The seventh placed teams in those divisions are on 59 and 61 points. I think whoever finishes 7th and 8th in the Championship can count themselves unlucky in that respect. I have a feeling our season will come down to our match against Wolves and if MM can't raise the team for that challenge, given his connection to the club, then the play-offs would probably be a waste of time anyway.
2

rossi added 13:14 - Apr 8
What an absolutely ridiculous, disingenuous, and narrow-minded synopsis by this idiot blogger. People are3 not disillusioned about or promotion push on the basis of the result of one game - but on the general form displayed since the turn of the year
-6

paulthebluealien added 13:32 - Apr 8
Thank you rossi.
Your comment has made my day. I'm about to have a fry up and you've made me chuckle whilst making it. An idiot blogger you say? A beautiful criticism.
I stand by my point made; many Town fans on here and on twitter are blowing a fuse because of our defeat against Huddersfield. My blog is more tongue-in-cheek and aimed to spell out and provide a bit of optimism that regardless of hot-headed people like yourself our season is still in motion.
Thank you for reading.
6

Harry_Palmer added 13:35 - Apr 8
As Rossi says above it is not simply one game that has caused people to become dismissive of our chances it is our overall form since the turn of the year. Whichever way you look at our remaining games it is clear we are going to need to win at least four of them to stand any chance, I personally cannot see this happening.

I don't see how this opinion makes me an idiot really, maybe you will look one come the 2nd May though, we will see.
2

Stato added 13:38 - Apr 8
Let's just hope Murph stays fit as otherwise the task ahead will look a lot more difficult than it already does.
1

Cat_ITFC added 13:55 - Apr 8
Our points total at the end of the season is arguable going to be high enough to have made the play offs every season since the turn of the century. People always love a moan when we lose, to be fair some only appear when they do! Yes a set back, but telling me it's all over is rubbish. Yes Harry Palmer, maybe on 2nd May we will all look silly, but I would rather look silly than stand there in my Ipswich shirt and be saying, "You see, I told you we were rubbish."
8

TR11BLU added 14:02 - Apr 8
I must be one of the idiotic fans then, as I believe we have blown it.

Not on the basis of one result, but more the team selection and what it signalled. Lack of intent, lack of belief. The selection of Wood and Fryers was, I think most would agree, absolutely bonkers.

This game WAS pivotal for me, building on the two wins prior to the international break and the fair, hard fought point against the 'best team in this league' we should have played a team that would get at Huddersfield and give them the run around. Instead we change the personnel and look a shambles.

I would have been more than happy with our position BEFORE the season started but we have wasted an opportunity.......Big Time.

Call me a pessimist, an idiot, whatever but the truth is the dinosaur in charge has peaked too soon.
2

DurhamTownFan added 17:50 - Apr 8
I really appreciate that the blog is trying to raise everyone's spirits. I know a lot of people often go with whatever other people think about football. Those of us who have played the game week in week out and even manage amateur sides have more of an idea about what football is about and how games are won and lost (other than the nutters who just scream blue murder because they don't know why things are happening on the pitch)

However, precisely because of this experience I feel like the play-offs are gone, and it is down to one thing: confidence. Mick seems to have lost the will to go for the jugular early on in games through conservative selection, formation and playing style and this has transmitted to the players, who now look more suttery (433 is NOT automatically more attacking: when we use it in my team it is usually so we can get more bodies in CM and win the loose ball better).

I REALLY hope Mick now just says: we're not going to make it by sitting back, so let's bloody go for it and win some games. In my eyes, that's the only way we'll finish top 6
3

dav86 added 22:54 - Apr 8
We'll be back in the top six by this time next week ready for the big clash at Wolves
4

paulthebluealien added 23:10 - Apr 8
Thank you DurhamTownFan I see someone grasped what the aim was. To try and raise the doom and gloom and as for, not everyone is seeing it as over that's certainly the impression some of us are getting!
2

NorwichBlue138 added 08:58 - Apr 9
Nice article. Form aside, for me the underlying reason behind our dip in form is the lack of goals, rather than anything else people use as excuses (Jay Tabb, lack of January signings, Chambers being at right back, Smith being out of form etc). Murphy was scoring for fun before Christmas, but has only scored 6 in 2015 - hardly prolific when he is the main, and arguably only, big goal threat, and this is the single biggest difference between 2014 and 2015.

Our midfield has never scored loads of goals, and we've always been surprised by the odd goal here or there from Tabb, Anderson, Chaplow etc, rather than expecting them, so the fact they still don't score lots isn't a surprise. Sears has looked good, and scored 5 in 16 (equates to 14 or 15 goals over a full season - a good return), but for me, Murphy going from 17 in 24 (2014 - equates to a 32 goal per full season return) to 5 in 17 (13 or 14 goals) is the difference, and we've relied too heavily on Murphy to haul us up the league, and he's just running out of steam (as the misses at Leeds from the spot, and Brentford from 5 yards, prove).

As a team we've only scored once in each of our last seven games - unless you keep a clean sheet you aren't going to win scoring one, so hardly surprising the wins have started to dry up since the losses to Derby and Southampton in January removed the feeling of invincibility which was no doubt spurring the team on.


1

rickw added 09:25 - Apr 9
I agree it's not over, but you started by criticising fans for now predicting we'll finish 8th and then did the same!
I think last weekend's results now means the odds are against us, to make the play-offs I think we need to win all 3 home games and either beat Blackburn away and draw at Wolves, or perhaps just a win at Wolves will do.

I put the results calculator link up on a Championship fans forum, and several fans of different Championship clubs did it, and they all had us 8th!!!! It's not impossible, but we've now made it very difficult for ourselves!!
0

PJH added 09:43 - Apr 9
Very good blog and it is certainly not all over.

The first half at Huddersfield was probably our worst 45 minutes of the season and if that performance is replicated in the upcoming games we will not make the playoffs.
On the up side is that we could be going to Wolves in 6th place and IF we put in a performance like at Watford when we go there we could be back in a reasonably healthy position.

The point that NorwichBlue makes about Murphy is very valid, to which I would add that IF he had taken that chance in the first 30 seconds at Rotherham, that game and quite possibly subsequent games may have been very different.

The feeling of disappointment at what might have been after the position we were in at the turn of the year is understandable but the ultimate goal of promotion this season is still a possibility.
COYB
2

Les57 added 09:47 - Apr 9
I think we should remain optimistic/ hopeful that the playoffs are still within reach as there is no way we can play as bad again this season as we did at Huddersfield in the first half.
1

KiwiBlue2 added 11:13 - Apr 9
We just need one final push over the next 5 games and given 3 are at home we have an edge over some of our closest rivals. I think that our present situation is largely a result of playing most of the season with a small squad so more vulnerable to injuries to key players and tiredness. I certainly agree with others that the timing of the injuries to key players has been inopportune but again that can happen to any side, sadly we have been more affected than some others.
1

KiwiBlue2 added 11:17 - Apr 9
I am still picking us to finish sixth but we need a fair slice of the rub of the green ........
3

itfc1981 added 15:23 - Apr 9
I wont what your on..

Ignore our 2015 form, which is also our current form and we will be on to win the league.

I expect us to win our next two home games then, blow it as we have been doing for months.
-2

KiwiBlue2 added 22:03 - Apr 9
itfc1981 - I think that optimism is a necessary part of any supporters kit (especially an Ipswich's one) but appreciate what you are saying. However I do think that we can get into 6th if we perform at our best level ......................
2

rossi added 12:23 - Apr 10
paulthebluealien - I made the remark 'idiot blogger' in reference to your comment that people complaining about the Huddersfield loss are idiotic. Pity you could not see the irony. As for me being hot-headed, well.....you don't know me, and this was my first comment on this board. So you really are in no position to make such observations as they are extremely ill-informed, rather like your post I would say.
0

StowTractorBoy added 13:50 - Apr 10
Whilst I know we still have a chance of making the top 6 it is hard to be optimistic after recent performances. The blog certainly reads in our favour but Millwall and Wigan will be all but down when they play our promotion contenders so could theoretically have little to play for. Forest at home will be very difficult with players trying to earn new contracts under Freedman. Do we ever play well at Blackburn - what a horrible last game of the season when Bournemouth are the only other side at the top to be away. The others in contention all have winnable home games. At the moment it is hard to be optimistic but you never know in football and if we do make it a Norwich Ipswich play off semi final should be mouth watering but an awful fear for me.
1

topguy added 15:22 - Apr 10
As for the here and now its 3 pts and goal diff atm is not the most important issue so we have a chance I think we will beat blackpool like for one im glad Lewis is injured as against Brentford he alone kept the score to single figures, and Derby will beat Brentford and Wolves will prob draw at Birmingham then 4 days later wolves have Middlesboro and we are at home to a leaky Cardiff may mean by then the wolves match may not matter but if we got a win or a draw it would be over with then we could enjoy the last two games.
0

paulthebluealien added 18:13 - Apr 10
Yes, I must make a self correction by the way that Brentford are on 70 points. My bad, I was to busy hoping they'd lost when they were two down!
Just add a point to each and it still works but that doesn't, for me, change that much anyway.

No matter whether you agree or disagree with what I'm trying to say here, I do appreciate the comments and the reading of. Even you rossi haha!
0

Europablue added 17:10 - Apr 22
It is interesting to revisit this blog a few matches on.
The situation looks much different now.
The season has been frustrating at times because we never really quite kicked on after Christmas.
Still I'm enjoying looking at the results at the top of the table and still being in with a chance.
I still don't get the continuing unrest when we are still in with a shout.
I'd take five lucky one nil wins playing hoofball if it means we get up!
0
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