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Sam Allardyce – The Sensible Choice?
Written by realprojection on Thursday, 21st Jul 2016 22:50

My view of Sam Allardyce is heavily influenced by the most exciting match I’ve ever watched. Ipswich’s 5-3 (AET) defeat of Bolton in a play-off semi-final second leg in May 2000.

A match memorable not only for Jim Magilton’s heroic hat-trick, but also the fact that Bolton managed to concede three penalties and receive two red cards (and still nearly win).

Allardyce’s unbridled indignation at the manner of defeat appeared comically hypocritical given the brutal nature of his team’s tactics (which had prevailed in a play-off semi-final between the same two teams in 1999).

Yet at the same time I grudgingly respected a team and manager that were so resolutely aggressive (and talented, with players such as Eidur Gudjohnsen and Claus Jensen), qualities that saw them promoted the following season.

In the intervening period, after a long spell with Bolton, he’s managed Newcastle, Blackburn, West Ham and Sunderland; winning nothing other than promotion for West Ham. Yet, 16 years on, Allardyce seems set to become England manager. How can this be?

Big Sam is one of a select band of British managers that persevere with tactics that seem to defy modern football wisdom. Year after year his teams post low possession and pass completion numbers, in an era of tiki taka tactics where possession is king. The graph below shows the relationship between points and pass completion % for every Premier League finish since 2009/10.

Allardyce’s teams are highlighted in red. Since 2009 he’s only broken 50 points once – and his direct tactics are reflected by meagre pass completion, never getting near the league average of 77% (although it did improve for the later years at West Ham).

So what is it that impressed the FA at that big job interview? Actually I think he was able to present a compelling case.

Firstly, he wants the job. He really wants it. He’s been let down before, yet still comes back. At any job interview, genuine desire and enthusiasm goes a long way.

Secondly he always meets his objectives. At the clubs he’s managed the objective has been promotion or Premier League survival – not to win anything. He’s ticked every box.

Then there’s the tactics. Industrial? Old fashioned? Look at that lonely point on the graph above, with 81 points at 70% pass completion. That’s Premier League winners Leicester City – proving that teams can win without keeping the ball.

Sam can point to consistency and pragmatism. This is sometimes unpopular, to fans demanding more excitement – perhaps explaining his short tenure at some clubs.

But this isn’t as big an issue for international football, where big matches only happen once every two years at most. Also, pragmatism often works for international football – look at what Portugal achieved with a group of players at a collective level similar to England.

Allardyce can also point to his early adoption of analytics to improve performance. His tactics may seem old-fashioned but his methods aren’t. A manager that knows what he wants to achieve with his tactics (whatever they are) and consistently applies them has to be a step forward for England. I’m looking forward to the arrival of the Allardyce era with optimism.

Incidentally, the other British managers in this select band of applying direct tactics, over many years, include fellow contender Steve Bruce, Tony Pulis and Mick McCarthy.

It’s perhaps surprising that Pulis wasn’t considered (despite being Welsh). And even McCarthy, despite now operating at such an ultra-frugal level, should perhaps have been in with a shout, given his international experience!




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ITFC_Forever added 10:18 - Jul 22
One minor point of order.... Allardyce wasn't Bolton manager for the PO Semis in 1999, Colin Todd was, Fat Sam didn't take over until Sept 1999.
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GenericIpswichFan added 18:37 - Jul 22
I would add to the excllent blog above that this all works perfectly well for Mourinho too. The top 2 coaches in the world demonstrate the extremities of footballing styles and that accusations of being prehistoric or wide of the mark when you consider the success of Mourinho and the other managers mentioned.

Is Sam right for England? I don't know but I do think he deserves his chance.

Eddie Howe in 5 to 8 years.
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Daleyitfc added 10:22 - Jul 23
Tactically he makes Mick McCarthy look like Kevin Keegan : cue a massive increase in England red cards and opposition broken legs. A horrible man whose sides play horrible football, and he has no experience of managing top-class players in his 95+ years in the game. After he's done with the national team, people will look back on the Roy Hodgson years as a golden age of English football.
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Kitman added 15:40 - Jul 25
..A win ugly manager. Not sure that the national team should be portrayed in this genre but after years- no, decades of failure this is what its come down to...

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