| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:31 - May 22 with 3112 views | chicoazul |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:47 - May 21 by brazil1982 |
They need the Scottish vote to get anywhere near Govt. |
Correct, and Scotland has gone forever. |  |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:34 - May 22 with 3100 views | factual_blue |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 08:26 - May 22 by Herbivore |
Glassers has become a full blown parody of himself. |
He's probably seeking a line to take from central office on your observation. |  |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:43 - May 22 with 3090 views | WD19 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:28 - May 22 by Gromheort |
Sorry, still laughing! A perfectly accurate poll with margin of error? Lovely!
We have to assume that the questioning is not leading; we have to also assume that the sample is random. Even then we don't have certainty over the margin of error. That is a term referring to likelihood. In short, it is cretinous to talk about a perfectly accurate poll [Post edited 22 May 2017 9:41]
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Remember that bit where I said ...'You don't understand sampling and statistics do you!?'....
The question will never be leading.
The sampling (and subsequent weighting) will be extremely diligent.
To disregard a poll because it doesn't fit your agenda could be described as 'glassersesque'.
You are the ying to his yang.
The dong to Kippers pong. |  | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:47 - May 22 with 3082 views | Gromheort |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:43 - May 22 by WD19 |
Remember that bit where I said ...'You don't understand sampling and statistics do you!?'....
The question will never be leading.
The sampling (and subsequent weighting) will be extremely diligent.
To disregard a poll because it doesn't fit your agenda could be described as 'glassersesque'.
You are the ying to his yang.
The dong to Kippers pong. |
I've been 'perfectly accurate' in my use of stats. There is no such thing as a perfectly accurate poll. The statistical methods used will always be prone to mistake. Even if those mistakes are avoided (and they're typically only avoided with the large data sets used for academic study), you have a confidence interval and no means to talk about certainty. There's a reason statistical analysis never accepts hypothesis, referring instead to failing to reject. |  | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:57 - May 22 with 3064 views | CaptainObvious |
Because as the last election proved, opinion polls are so accurate. [Post edited 22 May 2017 9:57]
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:03 - May 22 with 3049 views | WD19 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:57 - May 22 by CaptainObvious |
Because as the last election proved, opinion polls are so accurate. [Post edited 22 May 2017 9:57]
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Whilst not great, the polls were within the stated margin of error.
The issue was the use/interpretation of them. As a nation we have almost become addicted to them....to fill the 24 hour news agenda if nothing else.
The exit poll is a different beast and was pretty much spot on. | | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:06 - May 22 with 3041 views | Gromheort |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:03 - May 22 by WD19 |
Whilst not great, the polls were within the stated margin of error.
The issue was the use/interpretation of them. As a nation we have almost become addicted to them....to fill the 24 hour news agenda if nothing else.
The exit poll is a different beast and was pretty much spot on. |
Its more than addiction. They're now used as part of political manipulation. This of course makes reference to 'perfectly accurate' even more problematic, given you have issues of endogeneity. | | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:06 - May 22 with 3032 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 09:43 - May 22 by WD19 |
Remember that bit where I said ...'You don't understand sampling and statistics do you!?'....
The question will never be leading.
The sampling (and subsequent weighting) will be extremely diligent.
To disregard a poll because it doesn't fit your agenda could be described as 'glassersesque'.
You are the ying to his yang.
The dong to Kippers pong. |
Why would it be glasseresque? I have been consistent on opinion polls, good or bad, and at the beginning if this thread clearly stated the latest polls showing a huge improvement for labour are entirely accurate.
Please don't turn into a poster who reads what he believes rather than what is actually written. |  |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:32 - May 22 with 3010 views | CaptainObvious |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:03 - May 22 by WD19 |
Whilst not great, the polls were within the stated margin of error.
The issue was the use/interpretation of them. As a nation we have almost become addicted to them....to fill the 24 hour news agenda if nothing else.
The exit poll is a different beast and was pretty much spot on. |
they said the parties were dead level yet the Conservatives were not only the largest party, but they won a majority. getting totally the wrong result is a pretty huge margin of error. | |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:41 - May 22 with 3002 views | WD19 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:32 - May 22 by CaptainObvious |
they said the parties were dead level yet the Conservatives were not only the largest party, but they won a majority. getting totally the wrong result is a pretty huge margin of error. |
Share of popular vote and # of seats are two different things. | | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:43 - May 22 with 3001 views | Dolly2.0 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 23:07 - May 21 by GlasgowBlue |
I'd say that the polls are entirely accurate and reflect a week where Labour promised the moon on a stick without offering any explanation how they would fund it and the Tories honestly announced a series of unpopular measures.
At the moment Labour are polling where they were three weeks before the election in 2015 whereas the Tories are roughly 11 points ahead of where they were in 2015.
You are basically saying look how wonderful it is that Ipswich only lost 9-0 against Manchester United when everyone was saying it would be 10-0.
And weren't you blubbing earlier that I mentioned you in a thread you weren't involved in?
Hypocritastic.. |
You justified calling me out on a thread I wasn't involved in by saying it was a subject I was. I'm just returning the favour.
Or is it now a case of you're allowed to do it and I'm not?
Your analogy is utterly wrong BTW. No-one's lost yet, and Labour aren't as far behind as a football team losing 9-0. The other football analogy above is more accurate. |  |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:56 - May 22 with 2979 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:43 - May 22 by Dolly2.0 |
You justified calling me out on a thread I wasn't involved in by saying it was a subject I was. I'm just returning the favour.
Or is it now a case of you're allowed to do it and I'm not?
Your analogy is utterly wrong BTW. No-one's lost yet, and Labour aren't as far behind as a football team losing 9-0. The other football analogy above is more accurate. |
This is how far Labour have sunk that being 9 points behind is seen as being good. | |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 11:07 - May 22 with 2978 views | Dolly2.0 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:56 - May 22 by GlasgowBlue |
This is how far Labour have sunk that being 9 points behind is seen as being good. |
It's the trend, though, that I'm talking about. As well you know.
Last week it was 20 points. | |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 00:49 - May 26 with 2892 views | HARRY10 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:33 - May 21 by HARRY10 |
The landslide scenario is long gone. The constant narrowing of the lead demonstrates that. These are not rogue polls but a steady movement.
As stated it will require another week of narrowing of that lead to suggest it might be a hung Parliament or narrow Tory win.
Either would put May on the spot given how she called the election, supposedly, to get a bigger backing for brexit.
In football terms she was 2-0 up at half time. Offered to take the result as it stood she chose to play the second half to increase the lead. It is now 2-1 and her team are under the cosh.
This week will show us which way it is really going. |
Five days on and the lead has halved yet again.
This being AFTER the Manchester bomb, where some thought that Corbyn would lose ground because of his supposed associations with terrorists. Maybe it is nothing more than a reaction to May's social care fiasco.
However although this is only one poll, and it will need others to back it up it does seem to suggest that the lead is closing.
The question does it reflect Labour scoring, or Tory own goals ? |  | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 00:54 - May 26 with 2885 views | Kievthegreat |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 00:49 - May 26 by HARRY10 |
Five days on and the lead has halved yet again.
This being AFTER the Manchester bomb, where some thought that Corbyn would lose ground because of his supposed associations with terrorists. Maybe it is nothing more than a reaction to May's social care fiasco.
However although this is only one poll, and it will need others to back it up it does seem to suggest that the lead is closing.
The question does it reflect Labour scoring, or Tory own goals ? |
They have favourability ratings for JC,TM, Lab and Con that show after the manifesto JC and Lab jumped and TM and Cons slipped, but since the attack it's reversed again (although not entirely).
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 01:01 - May 26 with 2879 views | HARRY10 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 00:54 - May 26 by Kievthegreat |
They have favourability ratings for JC,TM, Lab and Con that show after the manifesto JC and Lab jumped and TM and Cons slipped, but since the attack it's reversed again (although not entirely).
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I think you'll find that it was only "Corbyn's favourability ratings" that slipped slightly and I should imagine the narrowing has much more to do with the social care fiasco.
The question is are these just reactions to either event, that will cool off in a few more days or are they part of a continuous shift away from the Tories
13 days to go. | | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 01:17 - May 26 with 2869 views | Kievthegreat |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 01:01 - May 26 by HARRY10 |
I think you'll find that it was only "Corbyn's favourability ratings" that slipped slightly and I should imagine the narrowing has much more to do with the social care fiasco.
The question is are these just reactions to either event, that will cool off in a few more days or are they part of a continuous shift away from the Tories
13 days to go. |
Not sure why you think only JCs ratings slipped. Between 22nd May (aftermath of Dementia tax debacle) and 24th/25th (after Manchester). JC has gone down 3% and Labour 5%, while TM was up 9% and Tories up 6%. So in fact JC had the smallest change of all of them.
Then again as people start campaigning in earnest again tomorrow it might all change in the next week. | | | |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:48 - May 26 with 2846 views | CaptainObvious |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:41 - May 22 by WD19 |
Share of popular vote and # of seats are two different things. |
So opinion polls are irrelevant as well inaccurate then. | |
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| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 15:06 - May 26 with 2803 views | HARRY10 |
| Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 10:48 - May 26 by CaptainObvious |
So opinion polls are irrelevant as well inaccurate then. |
eh ?
How did you come up with that ?
Opinion polls give an 'opinion' (the clue is in the name) of a small number of voters
They cannot be inaccurate as they are merely as stated above. | | | |
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