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It's still a big lead though, hard to see Labour actually pulling it off. Their biggest hope would've been the Lib Dems pulling some support from the Tories in strong remain constituencies but that doesn't seem to be happening. Looks to be a very polarised election with only two parties of any significance, which is hardly surprising in these divided times.
I'm very tempted to make a donation to Labour. According to an email from them they are heavily targeting Facebook advertising and are asking for donations to help fund it.
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:26 - May 21 by J2BLUE
I'm very tempted to make a donation to Labour. According to an email from them they are heavily targeting Facebook advertising and are asking for donations to help fund it.
You have only got to take a look at this place over the last month to see that is the way they want to go; it's smart when funds are tight. You may as well write a cheque directly to Gromeort to save the money hitting the Labour Party accounts altogether.
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:47 - May 21 with 4280 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:20 - May 21 by C_HealyIsAPleasure
Haha. With a lead of 9 points, I'm going to guess he's probably still fairly confident...
Only the lead was 20 points against a man who was considered at best a lame duck.
That lead has steadily been reduced.
A few more points movement away from the Tories and their increased majority will be non existent , and it could even end up as no overall control - and the full affects of the social care for the elderly policy has yet to have fully sunk in.
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:51 - May 21 by HARRY10
Only the lead was 20 points against a man who was considered at best a lame duck.
That lead has steadily been reduced.
A few more points movement away from the Tories and their increased majority will be non existent , and it could even end up as no overall control - and the full affects of the social care for the elderly policy has yet to have fully sunk in.
Not looking good, at all.
The polls showing the lead down to about 9 are from polling after the tory manifesto was launched, but before most of the media response to the dementia tax policy.
If you then imagine a situation in which the Labour party had supported it's leader over the last couple of years...
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:04 - May 21 with 4224 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:02 - May 21 by gordon
The polls showing the lead down to about 9 are from polling after the tory manifesto was launched, but before most of the media response to the dementia tax policy.
If you then imagine a situation in which the Labour party had supported it's leader over the last couple of years...
If they had supported their leader we wouldn't have a GE right now and could focus on discussion re: release of the squad numbers instead.
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:05 - May 21 with 4226 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:47 - May 21 by brazil1982
They need the Scottish vote to get anywhere near Govt.
I'd be up for a Labour/SNP/LibDem coalition. Lots of common ground and a far more modern and realistic grasp of our country's position in the world and what needs to be done to secure a better long-term future for our kids and pensioners.
Certainly no more bizarre, and far less frightening, than the current Conservative/UKIP/Unionist coalition that we've effectively got now. That also happens to be led by a self-serving and incompetent waste of space.
I'd put Sturgeon in the hot seat and see if we've still got a UK worth keeping together. Might be the only hope to stop Scotland and perhaps NI leaving anyway.
Pronouns: He/Him
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:30 - May 21 with 4118 views
For LD sake, I hope the Polls are wrong, but if we can get to 15 we'll be doing well.
The worry for Labour is as this article says, the national polls are missing the local issues
[Post edited 21 May 2017 21:07]
That is not Labour's own internal analysis but a seperate blog.
To say in is inaccurate would be to over praise it.
It has -
"Currently Labour is set to lose just over 90 seats but a relatively small deterioration of the party’s position on the ground could see dozens more fall."
"While the national polls suggest Labour’s vote is holding up, potentially even advancing on 2015, "
So far from a relatively small deterioration of the party’s position' we are seeing a steady day on day increase. One that is not 'potentially even advancing on 2015' but has advanced. 30.4% (2015) to 35% is not 'potentially' but actual.
Whilst no poll at this stage is set in stone and the percentage could fall back again, it is more the steady increase over the past couple of weeks that should be understood as a more accurate assessment of Labour's position.
A few more polls after the full impact of the social care plicy might give us a better idea of whether the narrowing of the polls is more than just a blip.
However there are good reasons why many may turn out this time and vote against the Torys. Fracking, cutting school meals, universities being forced to pay for free schools, fox hunting. If those single issue voters choose to vote tactically it may well not go as well as they expected come June 8th.
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:38 - May 21 with 4099 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:30 - May 21 by HARRY10
That is not Labour's own internal analysis but a seperate blog.
To say in is inaccurate would be to over praise it.
It has -
"Currently Labour is set to lose just over 90 seats but a relatively small deterioration of the party’s position on the ground could see dozens more fall."
"While the national polls suggest Labour’s vote is holding up, potentially even advancing on 2015, "
So far from a relatively small deterioration of the party’s position' we are seeing a steady day on day increase. One that is not 'potentially even advancing on 2015' but has advanced. 30.4% (2015) to 35% is not 'potentially' but actual.
Whilst no poll at this stage is set in stone and the percentage could fall back again, it is more the steady increase over the past couple of weeks that should be understood as a more accurate assessment of Labour's position.
A few more polls after the full impact of the social care plicy might give us a better idea of whether the narrowing of the polls is more than just a blip.
However there are good reasons why many may turn out this time and vote against the Torys. Fracking, cutting school meals, universities being forced to pay for free schools, fox hunting. If those single issue voters choose to vote tactically it may well not go as well as they expected come June 8th.
It's a report by Labour Uncut, the key members who are effectively the Labour party and closely aligned to Momentum.
It might be inaccurate, but neither you or I can say that, as it's their analysis and senior Labour figures/activists appear to be taking it seriously.
I hope it isn't true or anywhere near true in fact or we're screwed. Even Owen Jones recognised the authenticity of the analysis this morning
Even at 35% that would give 20 or so fewer seats than 2015 due to where the Tory gains are?
[Post edited 21 May 2017 21:45]
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:45 - May 21 with 4065 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:38 - May 21 by ElderGrizzly
It's a report by Labour Uncut, the key members who are effectively the Labour party and closely aligned to Momentum.
It might be inaccurate, but neither you or I can say that, as it's their analysis and senior Labour figures/activists appear to be taking it seriously.
I hope it isn't true or anywhere near true in fact or we're screwed. Even Owen Jones recognised the authenticity of the analysis this morning
Even at 35% that would give 20 or so fewer seats than 2015 due to where the Tory gains are?
[Post edited 21 May 2017 21:45]
But the analysis is based upon outdated figures
However it might serve it's purpose by getting the Labour vote out
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:49 - May 21 with 4053 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:45 - May 21 by HARRY10
But the analysis is based upon outdated figures
However it might serve it's purpose by getting the Labour vote out
Report was published yesterday, so it's fairly recent?
Anyway, the point of the report is saying the national gains might be hiding a worse situation in key seats and i assumed that was the point the media were picking up on this morning off the back of it.
Whatever the data now, as you and Dolly are saying it looks like the lead is narrowing which is good for most of us in the country!
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:01 - May 21 with 4029 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 21:49 - May 21 by ElderGrizzly
Report was published yesterday, so it's fairly recent?
Anyway, the point of the report is saying the national gains might be hiding a worse situation in key seats and i assumed that was the point the media were picking up on this morning off the back of it.
Whatever the data now, as you and Dolly are saying it looks like the lead is narrowing which is good for most of us in the country!
The comments suggest the dat was based on Labour still only around the previous 2015 election results (30.4).
They don't take into account tactical voting either, which has been, and will be anti Tory. More so given the number of single issue voters who will vote in response to what I posted above.
The huge number of younger voters also suggest that the Tories will face a harder task.
It is still all up for grabs and the Tory manifesto does show that one 'slip' can have a big effect, so there's plenty of time for the others to mess up as well.
But for Labour voters it looks one helluva lot better than a fortnight agao. Will that still be the case in 7 days time ?
And at last he is beginning to show a bit of passion
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:23 - May 21 with 3985 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:01 - May 21 by HARRY10
The comments suggest the dat was based on Labour still only around the previous 2015 election results (30.4).
They don't take into account tactical voting either, which has been, and will be anti Tory. More so given the number of single issue voters who will vote in response to what I posted above.
The huge number of younger voters also suggest that the Tories will face a harder task.
It is still all up for grabs and the Tory manifesto does show that one 'slip' can have a big effect, so there's plenty of time for the others to mess up as well.
But for Labour voters it looks one helluva lot better than a fortnight agao. Will that still be the case in 7 days time ?
And at last he is beginning to show a bit of passion
The graph does refer to some tactical voting, worryingly the switch from UKIP to Tories to sure up Brexit.
But, the overall message appears to be, look at the key constituencies, not just the overall picture.
What i want to see is Corbyn appealing to non-core voters, which is the only way they will stop a landslide.
But i agree, the dementia/death tax is a huge slip up for the Tories.
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:33 - May 21 with 3961 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:23 - May 21 by ElderGrizzly
The graph does refer to some tactical voting, worryingly the switch from UKIP to Tories to sure up Brexit.
But, the overall message appears to be, look at the key constituencies, not just the overall picture.
What i want to see is Corbyn appealing to non-core voters, which is the only way they will stop a landslide.
But i agree, the dementia/death tax is a huge slip up for the Tories.
The landslide scenario is long gone. The constant narrowing of the lead demonstrates that. These are not rogue polls but a steady movement.
As stated it will require another week of narrowing of that lead to suggest it might be a hung Parliament or narrow Tory win.
Either would put May on the spot given how she called the election, supposedly, to get a bigger backing for brexit.
In football terms she was 2-0 up at half time. Offered to take the result as it stood she chose to play the second half to increase the lead. It is now 2-1 and her team are under the cosh.
This week will show us which way it is really going.
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:40 - May 21 with 3948 views
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 20:51 - May 21 by HARRY10
Only the lead was 20 points against a man who was considered at best a lame duck.
That lead has steadily been reduced.
A few more points movement away from the Tories and their increased majority will be non existent , and it could even end up as no overall control - and the full affects of the social care for the elderly policy has yet to have fully sunk in.
Not looking good, at all.
No you're right actually, Labour will clearly win this election
Highlighting crass stupidity since sometime around 2010
Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 22:40 - May 21 by C_HealyIsAPleasure
No you're right actually, Labour will clearly win this election
Or you are just being silly... due to being upset I should imagine
If you care to point out where I said Labour would win, never mind clearly, then you might have a point. However as I did state halving a 20 point lead does suggest something is going awry.
The momentum is now against the Tories so if it continues then it will still be hard to predict how they will finish. The current pools were they to be right across the board would give a Tory majority of 10.
Not the victory expected, nor the majority to carry some of their more unpopular policies.
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Labour-Tory gap now single figures in latest YouGov poll on 23:07 - May 21 with 3886 views
I'd say that the polls are entirely accurate and reflect a week where Labour promised the moon on a stick without offering any explanation how they would fund it and the Tories honestly announced a series of unpopular measures.
At the moment Labour are polling where they were three weeks before the election in 2015 whereas the Tories are roughly 11 points ahead of where they were in 2015.
You are basically saying look how wonderful it is that Ipswich only lost 9-0 against Manchester United when everyone was saying it would be 10-0.
And weren't you blubbing earlier that I mentioned you in a thread you weren't involved in?
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