Boss Mick McCarthy believes a top two finish could be beyond the Blues come 5pm on Saturday if Town lose at Middlesbrough and results elsewhere don’t go their way.
The seventh-placed Blues, who face Boro live on Sky at 12.15pm, are currently five points behind leaders Bournemouth and also Derby in second, third-placed Watford and the Teessiders, who are fourth.
"If we lost on Saturday and there are then two teams eight points in front of us, we’re not going to be getting into the top two,” McCarthy said.
"We’re not going to win three more games than the ones at the top. I doubt that very, very much. That would take a huge effort.
"It’s unlikely. So in the games that we’ve got coming up it’s important that we stay in that pack, get back in the top six, get something out of them and that we’re not even thinking about that, that we’re thinking about the top two until it’s impossible.”
The Cherries, who are currently top, are at home to table-propping Blackpool, the Rams are away at Norwich, who are fifth, while the Hornets take on Reading, who are 16th, at home.
The Blues manager, who made the trip to Ewood Park to watch Tuesday's opponents Bolton lose 1-0 to Blackburn on Wednesday evening, is pleased that Town have the likes of Boro, Bournemouth and Watford still to play so their fate is to some extent in their own hands.
"We can affect things and we can be right out of it,” he added. "That’s the picture we’ve got in front of us at the moment.
"I guess our focus is making sure we’re still in it. That we don’t get beaten, that we get something out of the games and we’re still in it right to the very end.”
He says talk about the possibility of winning promotion is far from banned from the training ground.
"[We talk about it] all the time. At least be in the top six, at least be in the promotion shake-up, that’s [how it's been from day one],” he continued.
"Why would that change? Nothing’s changed with 10 games to go. I find it’s strange that anyone would think differently, that we wouldn’t.
"We look at the papers, we know what position we’re in, we know how many points we’ve got, we know what everybody else has got.
"But then you have to focus on Middlesbrough and if we don’t get anything there then it’s going to make it very tough for us.”