The Ipswich Town Doomsday Scenario
Written by Pessimistic on Friday, 1st Mar 2013 13:05

May 4th is the date in question. Ipswich Town will be away to Burnley, who may still be desperate for points to claim a last ditch play-off place. We may be desperate for points for entirely different reasons!

That date May 4th is synonymous with a number of historical happenings. On this date in 1932, Al Capone began life as convict 40886 in Atlanta Federal Penitentiary, in which he was to serve 11 years for income tax evasion and on the same day in 1945 in the Netherlands and Denmark, German troops surrendered to the British Army.

Not close enough to home? Well, it was on May 4th, 1979 that Margaret Thatcher came to power and incidentally she predicted at Wembley the year before that the blues of Ipswich Town winning the FA CUP could prove to be a lucky omen!

It was also on May 4th, 1982 that Argentina returned fire on at British Forces following the sinking of General Belgrano by submerging the British warship HMS Sheffield.

A lot has happened on May 4th and we can only hope that we do not enter the history book of football for all the wrong reasons. I am seriously worried though. Very seriously worried!

When Mick McCarthy tells us before the game against Huddersfield that a point would be a good result, it fills me with fear. A good result? How can this be, when we are so perilously close to the drop zone and playing against a team that to use his own words, "have been spanked by Forest" just a few days before 6-1!

You go telling Captain Fantastic Carlos Edwards that a draw is a good result and you can be sure he will leave the field with a smile on his face!

This was an opportunity missed. Huddersfield were feeling very fragile and we should have exploited it. Instead we managed two shots on goal in 90 minutes and only one on target which is an absolute disgrace. Mark Robins, the Huddersfield boss summed it up perfectly, "They came for a point and got a point. We tried to get all three."

And where are these magical 50-plus points that Mick the Man boldly states we need, going to come from? Let us look at these remaining last games and try to analyse the likely outcomes.

Saturday 2nd March, Ipswich v Leicester: This is a game that Town badly need to win but it seems unlikely. This team whipped Blackburn 3-0 in the middle of the week and still foster hopes of an automatic Premier League place and will be very focused. If David Nugent fails a fitness test then we may be able to sneak a draw.

Score Prediction 1-1 (one point)

Tuesday 5th March, Forest v Ipswich: A tough away game this, made all the more difficult because Forest need the points to fight for a play-off berth. The best we can probably hope for is a draw but I fear the worst!

Score Prediction 2-1 (0 points)

Saturday 9th March, Peterborough v Ipswich: Anyone who thinks this will be easy is fooling themselves. Darren Ferguson has got this lot playing well above their station and as last season proved, write them off at your peril! It will not be another 7-1 humiliation but I still think we will lose.

Score Prediction 3-1 (0 points)

Saturday 16th March, Ipswich v Bolton: The men from Lancashire have finally found some form and by the time we play them could be even closer to the play-offs, so this game will certainly mean something for them. They started the season lethargically but with Keith Andrews in the team you can almost guarantee him to score - even if it is a penalty!

Score Prediction 2-2 (one point)

Saturday 30th March, Ipswich v Leeds: Town have a good record against Leeds, which is just as well because they too, will be desperate for points to propel themselves into the play-offs and they have quality in abundance. I can see Town sneaking this but not before we have bitten all our nails off in the process!

Score Prediction 1-0 (three points!)

Monday 1st April, Millwall v Ipswich: Yes, you have noticed it is April Fools' Day and I fear that it will be Town who will be made the fools here! Millwall have had a bad run of late but it is unlikely that by the time we play them they will still be in free fall. At The Den they are always a handful and the best we could hope for here I think is a draw.

Score prediction 1-0 (0 points)

Saturday April 6th, Derby v Ipswich: In 17 home games they have only lost twice so this will be another big ask. Nigel Clough will still foster hopes of a play-off place and by the time we play them could be back in the top six! To use Mick McCarthy's script, a point here would be a good result.

Score Prediction 1-1 (one point)

Saturday 13th March, Ipswich v Hull: We will do very well to get anything from this game too. Hull could well be in the automatic promotion places by now and will want a win badly. Town will want a win badly for entirely different reasons and it could end in stalemate.

Score Prediction 0-0 (one point)

Tuesday 16th April, Ipswich v Crystal Palace: The surprise package of the Championship perhaps but as this goes to print, Palace remain after 33 games four points adrift of an automatic promotion spot! Even if they have a poor run, it is unlikely they won't still have a good chance of the play-offs and on these grounds alone they will be looking to win!

Score prediction 2-3 (0 points)

Saturday 20th April, Sheffield W v Ipswich: Wednesday will still need the points just as desperately as Ipswich and it will be another nail-biter from start to finish. McCarthy will no longer be proclaiming that a draw against a fellow struggler would be a good result. On the contrary, it is a game that Town must strive to win!

Score Prediction 1-1 (one point)

Saturday 27th April, Ipswich v Birmingham: This could be a banker for Town, who are still desperately in need of points. Birmingham will have pulled clear of the drop zone I believe and for once Town are not playing a side who need the points badly.

Score Prediction 3-0 (three points!)

Saturday 4th May Burnley v Ipswich: It could just be that when we play Burnley in the last game of the season they will need all three points to stand a chance of making the play-offs. We will need all three to secure our Championship survival. I see this one ending in a draw, which perhaps is not good enough for both teams? Time will tell.

Score Prediction 1-1 (one point)

This would of course mean we would have gleaned a total of 12 points in our remaining fixtures, which would give us 51 points and just two wins in all.

It should be enough to keep us up but who really knows, with so many of the teams in the lower reaches of the league pulling out all the stops? To expect to cull four or five victories from our remaining fixtures seems about as likely as the Pope going on a guided tour of Amsterdam's infamous red light district!

There is no doubting that Town's defence has improved beyond all recognition under McCarthy but the midfield still can't score and Carlos Edwards is a woeful captain.

What Town need perhaps most of all is some inspiration and some iron will. Tommy Smith may be young but he has all the necessary attributes to lead us forward with fight and passion. This is what we need most of all in our time of need, if we want to avoid May 4th and the dreaded doomsday scenario!

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tractorblue99 added 18:45 - Mar 1 Living up to your name in this article! We'll be absolutely fine.
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HARRY10 added 21:02 - Mar 1 lilely outcome ? I think you mean result this is the UK, just
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Pessimistic added 21:52 - Mar 1 And Harry Is lilely a new English word I may have missed that perhaps just applies to the U.K.?
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Arthur added 11:03 - Mar 2 mmmmm well you've put a lot of thought into it. Perhaps the world will end in the meantime.
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Fatcatevans added 20:57 - Mar 2

What a load of drivel. The Huddersfield point was invaluable as it also effectively deprived them of two more home points. Your first prediction of a 1-1 draw with Leicester has already been shot to pieces by today's win. For goodness sake have a little faith and lose the pessimism and ignore the so called coincidences of the past. Man Up and get behind the Town. You must be a real laugh a minute at a party.

Pessimistic added 02:11 - Mar 3

With respect Fatcatevans the drivel is coming from you! Don't be so sensitive my man. I have been a Town fan since you were in nappies so there is no need to wet your pants. I want Ipswich to avoid the drop just as much as you do but I am not convinced that we are going to get there sadly. I sincerely hope we do and I am genuinely delighted if I am proved wrong. Anyway, football is all about fine margins and we got through today by the skin of our teeth and let us be honest and admit it! Leicester could and arguably should, have sneaked a late equalizer and then you would not have complimented me on getting it right, of that I am absolutely sure! I will be the first to admit I got it wrong if this proves to be the case but until we are mathematically certain of avoiding the drop then I suggest you follow my predictions a little more closely and without the flippancy!

Kropotkin123 added 11:05 - Mar 3 The game against Huddersfield cemented it for me, there is no chance we are going down. Smart points like that, when others are free-falling. We may even end up finishing mid-table. I think Bristol and Peterborough will also stay up.
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Pessimistic added 15:11 - Mar 3

I agree Kropkin, I think Peterborough, under the expert guidance of Darren Ferguson will stay up. As for Bristol City well I am not too sure? Jon Stead is somebody that I think Town should have hung on to but like our current strikers, he is not exactly prolific up front and this too is where our troubles mainly lie? It would not be so bad if the midfielders chipped in a bit more often but sadly this is not happening.

I predicted that David McGoldrick would score yesterday though which gave me an extra couple of points in the prediction league - even if my 1-1 scoreline did not happen.( Thankfully!)

The truth is, 51 points could well be enough to keep the blues up so yesterday was a real bonus! I suspect that Wolves could be the other team that go under because the are in free-fall at the worst possible time and Dean Saunders has not managed a win in two months at the helm, which is very worrying for their club I guess.

As fans we are all in this together and I would be delighted if most of my forecasts were wide of the mark, if it meant that Town steered clear of trouble. Remember we hold a broad church of opinions as supporters of the blues and some of us are more optimistic than others quite obviously.

mattraisin added 23:56 - Mar 4

"Not close enough to home? Well, it was on May 4th, 1979 that Margaret Thatcher came to power and incidentally she predicted at Wembley the year before that the blues of Ipswich Town winning the FA CUP could prove to be a lucky omen!"

This sentence makes no sense at all. Could you explain? I don't think Her Mags ever made a prediction about Ipswich, or any football results for that matter. Also, if you meant presided then your use, or rather lack off use, of punctuation and construction of sentences should probably be looked in to.

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Bergholtblue added 07:44 - Mar 5 You forgot the Star Wars connection May the Fourth be with you!
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62WasBest added 18:57 - Mar 5

The benchmark for an average season is a point per game to survive, which is 46 points. In a season such as we face 50 points may be enough but ideally a target of around 53 would be safer. At that level a team would be extremely unfortunate to be relegated. It would take a collapse of the middle order for that scenario to transpire, and a study of the fixtures would probably reveal that many rivals for relegation take points of each other.
At the time of writing we have 42points, having dispatched Leicester. So 11 needed from 11. That isn't unachievable. 50 points only requires 8 out off 11 games. So long as we don't collapse through a couple of poor results I think we should remain optimistic.

Pessimistic added 22:44 - Mar 5

Oh my dear mattraisen, you are either too young or too foolish to consider that this may of actually happened. It did and the interview was conducted by Tony Lorenzo for BBC Radio Two Sports (sssh ...they did not have Five Live then...) immediately after the 1978 cup final when Ipswich beat Arsenal 1-0 and I have two programmes from that game by the way if you want one? Oh to be so innocent of all this suffering is a true wonder my boy! If you are still unconvinced I still have the recording but sadly on tape and not on a DVD...

Pessimistic added 22:49 - Mar 5 That should of course have read: this may HAVE actually happened... Yes, I too, make mistakes but perhaps not as many as you dear Mattraisen.
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Fatcatevans added 20:05 - Mar 6

I wouldn't compliment you mate on any thing. you are a peddler of the worst kind of cynicism. I'm in my sixties so I doubt you were following itfc whle I was in nappies. bottom line is you were wrong about the Leicester result. End of. You area doomsday merchant who thrives on the fact we aren't doing well. I'm not flippant with you. Just being realistic. Your pessimism just compounds a difficult situation .. We will be fine.

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Pessimistic added 11:54 - Mar 7

Look Fatcatevens you are completely missing the point. ( A bit like Ipswich just now dear I say old chap.)

This is the reality. We are ALL in this together and because a democracy is all about expressing views in the public domain, it is simply a case of your opinions do not conform with mine. Simple as that.

I am proud to be an Ipswich supporter, through the good times and the bad. I am totally committed to this club, as I am sure we all are and if you scrutinized my article more succinctly you will see that I never said Ipswich would go down. I only posed the question: is 51 points enough to keep Town up? Chris Bamber a sports journalist with the East Anglian Daily Times said in an article today that he thinks Town might need as much as 55 points to avoid the drop and this was based on what he thought the other ten teams in around the drop zone would do in their last batch of matches. Remember Millwall once went down with 52 points so one should not be blaze about ones chances.

I was very proud of Ipswich Town's performance in mid-week against Forest when they defied all the odds only to lose to a dreadfully fortuitous deflected goal in the dying embers of the game. The nine remaining Town players on the field proved that they were totally committed to the Town and if it had not been for some poor refereeing decisions my prediction would not have been correct.

The game away to Peterborough on Saturday will be another big ask. We will be missing Lee Martin and Richard Steerman and we all know what happened last season so we won't want a repeat of that! Under Mick McCarthy we have renewed self-belief however and I think that the blues will put up a jolly good show - although I fear the outcome will be not be quite as good as the teams endeavors. I hope I am proved wrong!

Pessimistic added 12:00 - Mar 7 Typing corrections: line one DARE old chap and not dear old chap. The third paragraph last sentence: should be BLASE and not blaze. Sorry about those typo's but I hope it reads better now.
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