| Championship Season 2013/14: A Foolhardy Forecast Written by AndrewPC on Tuesday, 16th Jul 2013 12:20 With less than a month to go before the opening of the new season, Championship clubs’ squads are back in training and playing friendlies. Internet chatter amongst their supporters is rife with speculation: about arrivals to and departures from squads; prospects for the new campaign; and assessments of managers, owners and the impact of the Financial Fair Play rules. Foolhardy though it may be (didn’t Yogi Berra say “Forecasting is difficult. Especially about the future�), this contributor has fallen foul of the temptation to make a forecast on the outcome of the 2013/14 season. The forecast result is found at the end. Before you conclude that this forecast is arrant nonsense and just a mishmash of subjective preferences, let me first set out the formal framework and analytic approach applied to reach this result. Each team’s prospects were evaluated under five headings, each of which is believed to have direct impact on performances and results. Other influences could have been chosen, but the view was taken that the last four of these five are persistent and tangible all season long, and the first has an important bearing on at least the opening quarter. Hence, all five are key determinant variables. Issues like suspensions and injuries always play a role too but, over a season, probably even themselves out across the 24 clubs. The five categories adopted are: (1) The team’s momentum during the last quarter of the previous season and final league positions. (2) The current manager: his overall track record; and performance and prospects at the club. (3) The first team squad: squad quality; team balance, cohesion & resilience; likely net improvements through new additions. (4) The club’s owners: their approach to managing the club, its finances, and all footballing matters. (5) The ‘12th Man’: impact of the club’s supporters and match crowds on the club and team. A score of between one and five was awarded to each category per club, so that a total score of 25 was possible. No weighting of the scores per category was made as it was considered an unhelpful complication. To attain a final league ranking, where two teams had equal points, prime position was awarded to the side assessed to have the superior manager, as recent season end results in the Championship demonstrate that outcomes are positively correlated with the quality of manager (eg Malky Mackay, Steve Bruce, Ian Holloway and Mick McCarthy from last season).
Championship Season 2013-14 Final League Table Rankings forecast, points, out of 25, allotted in parenthesis.
1/ Leicester City (21) 2/ Watford (20) 3/ Queens Park Rangers (19) 4/ Nottingham Forest (19) 5/ Ipswich Town (18) 6/ Sheffield Wednesday (18) 7/ Bolton Wanderers (18) 8/ Birmingham City (18) 9/ Reading (17) 10/ Wigan (17) 11/ Derby County (17) 12/ Brighton (16) 13/ Middlesboro (16) 14/ Leeds United (16) 15/ Barnsley (15) 16/ Charlton Athletic (15) 17/ Burnley (14) 18/ Yeovil (12) 19/ Blackburn Rovers (12) 20/ Doncaster Rovers (11) 21/ Bournemouth (11) 22/ Millwall (11) 23/ Huddersfield Town ( 9) 24/ Blackpool ( 9)
Commentary on Top Six Resilient and consistent playing style, team performances and tight defences are the hallmark of successful sides over 46 games. Attaining these attributes comes incrementally, not overnight. That is why the top six is headed by Leicester City. They have been doing all the right things under Nigel Pearson in the back end of last season and arguably have the strongest squad. They squeeze ahead of Watford because the latter concedes too many goals. Rarely do all three relegated sides make the top six the following season. There will be no exception this year. With QPR slated for the winning play-off spot, no place for Reading or Wigan. QPR’s problems last season both on and off the pitch could be viewed as a recipe for turmoil and further disappointment in the Championship. This will not happen though under Harry Redknapp, who unquestionably is the Championship’s number one manager this season (and has brought with him his key coaching staff of Joe Jordan and Kevin Bond; and even added Steve McClaren). “My way or the highway,†Harry will tell the players. After a short spell of inconsistency, QPR will be in the top six for the rest of the campaign and then win the play off at Wembley. All part of the ‘Arry magic and mythology. The other three play-off teams will be Forest, Ipswich and Wednesday. In each case, the underlying reasons will be identical: they have managers who are among the best in the league; they have incremental momentum from the end of last season, and they have made judicious additions to their squads. Their respective managers – Billy Davies, Big Mick and David Jones – have the managerial ‘nous’ at this level to take their teams to the next level in terms of resilience, performance and consistent results. They will instil into their players the competitive grit and collective determination that is the differentiator over 46 Championship games to yield a top four to six finish. Each club has massive ‘12th Man’ once positive results start to generate a buzz amongst supporters; Commentary on Bottom Six The clubs comprising the bottom six are somewhat unsurprising, being made up of two of the three promoted clubs plus three others all of which ended last season in the relegation fight with final positions X, Y and Z respectively. Blackpool occupy the foot of the table because the magic that was Ian Holloway’s presence is long gone. Even if Paul Ince holds on to his son for another season this will be insufficient to secure their Championship status. Blackpool’s owner Oysten runs the club on a tight financial budget and there will be no margin for the manager to buy-in a successful squad. This season may prove to be Paul Ince’s swansong as a football manager. Huddersfield and Millwall will join Blackpool in League One. Both had very poor results in the last quarter of 2012/13 and this negative momentum is likely to carry over into the new season. Their respective managers are inexperienced relative to most others in the Championship and their squads at best workman-like. Huddersfield do not have strong ‘12th Man’ support and Millwall’s, while strong, is quixotic and likely to turn against the team when a string of defeats leaves them near the foot of the table. Blackburn experience another season of underperformance. Their problems in terms of ownership interference in footballing matters, managerial instability, and underperforming squad are not likely to disappear. However, they avoid relegation – just. But not another mid-season managerial change which necessarily will cause further disruption at the club. Commentary on Mid-Table 12 At the top end of the mid-table 12 are Bolton and Birmingham. They both experienced good last quarter momentum at the end of the 2012/13 season. They are ‘big clubs’ in terms of their past achievements and relative scale of support. For each, the ‘12th Man’ effect has great potential if their teams can sustain a run of form and results. Home crowds in excess of 20,000 would be attainable. Both possess managers who are amongst the best of the Championship’s younger generation. Lee Clark worked wonders at Huddersfield before being prematurely sacked. Dougie Freedman had Crystal Palace flying high in the top six last season before accepting the Bolton job. Both will create sides that perform better than their previous campaign’s efforts. However, the enhanced managerial stability and team results will fall tantalisingly short of securing for them play-off places. Pipped to the post by Town and Wednesday because of their managers’ marginally greater know-how at making the whole (team/squad) more than the sum of the parts. Last year’s Premiership relegation sides Reading and Wigan occupy ninth and 10th. Despite having proven managers at this level they will not make the play-offs. In Wigan’s case, even the marquee signing of Grant Holt will not be sufficient. Owen Coyle will bring a different style of football to that previously witnessed under Wigan’s Roberto Martinez. It will not yield them the return to the top flight at the first attempt. In the middle six of the mid-table 12, are some well-known clubs who underperform relative their owners’, managements’ and supporters’ expectations. Derby County, Leeds United and Middlesbrough in particular will find themselves in mid-table obscurity, with little or no evident progress from their on-field efforts of last term. Quality is missing from Leeds’ squad, plus the ongoing uncertainties of their owner’s plans and management direction will impact negatively on team performances. The respective managers at Derby and Boro – Clough and Mowbray – have both run out of steam in terms of extracting results improvements from their pedestrian teams. Expect management changes. Brighton will be down among this group. The club will regret having lost Gus Poyet and Mauricio Taricco because the quality and momentum they created in the team will atrophy. A ‘return to the mean’ effect will see Brighton again start to look like the League One side that they were only three seasons ago. Unfancied Barnsley, under the guidance of new manager David Flitcroft, will continue to surprise. They will stay well away from relegation struggles this term and secure notable and unexpected victories against some opposing sides who adopt a less than ‘full on’ attitude to playing them. Conclusion Forecasting is a fool’s game. Come mid-May 2014 when the real results will be known, this forecast will have been proven probably very wrong and humble pie will be the order of the day. But it is human nature to try to foresee the future. As a Town supporter hope springs eternal, and I can assure you that subjective preference had absolutely no role in Town’s achieving fifth place in the forecast rankings! (lol). Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.
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