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First Half Analysis
Written by luke_38 on Friday, 27th Dec 2013 17:06

After the 342-mile round trip to Doncaster, a lot of fans were left with a renewed sense of optimism, which they perhaps hadn't felt since the start of August.

Town haven't made a better start to the season since the Joe Royle days, stretching back to the 2004/05 season!

Being one point off the play-off places on 34 points is obviously a huge improvement from recent times under Paul Jewell and Roy Keane. Some now consider us serious contenders for the top six, myself included in that.

Are we seriously good enough then? I've done a bit of research and noted how much points we have collected against teams in the top six, seventh-12th, 13th-18th and 19-24th. Here are the points collected so far:

First-Sixth: Won 0, Drawn 2, Lost 4, collecting 2 points.

Seventh-12th: Won 3, Drawn 1, Lost 1 gaining 10 points.

13th-18th: Won 2, Drawn 2, Lost 1 gathering 8 points.

19th-24th: Won 4, Drawn 2, Lost 0 picking up 14 points.

Say what you will, but not winning against a top six team yet is quite disappointing, but we have managed to breach the opposition's defences in three out of those six games.

The Derby game aside, we've only scored two in five games against the top teams, suggesting we need someone who can take their chances.

Hopefully now we have that player, however, with the recent acquisition of Sylvan Ebanks-Blake. The former Wolves man has scored 87 goals in just over 260 appearances in his professional career, averaging a goal every three games.

But if we look elsewhere and focus on the teams below us, we've picked up 32 points out of a possible 48. A very respectable total. So it leaves me thinking we can definitely threaten the play-off places, we just need that extra bit when we play against the top six.

We may now have that, as I've said, in Sylvan Ebanks-Blake. Firstly though, he has to regain his fitness, which will be a big challenge having been out injured for over six months.

With all of the analysis done, it's time for predicting. Using our previous results and averaging them to the points that were on offer, I came up with a final points total of 71

Obviously that's a huge number of points which would easily see us into the play-offs, but if Mick keeps this squad and maybe tweaks it a bit in January that target is achievable.

I hope this adds to the optimism a lot of us are now feeling, and I'd like to wish everybody associated with Town a Happy New Year.




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carsey added 18:00 - Dec 27
I am of the age where I was fortunate enough to recall the arrival of one Robert (Bobby) Robson at Portman Road and enjoyed the rise of Ipswich Town FC in English football to the point of being a real power house. A club where the supporters never doubted that the team could and probably would win, no matter who they played. I recall great european nights at Portman Road when if you didn't skip school early to get home and have tea you would be lucky to get to the ground in time to get a decent spot.
I have been a season ticket holder through all that time up to the present day and you can do all the calculations you like, the fact remains by comparison both the club and the team are in a poor state. I realise I was spoiled and I saw things no home supporter will ever see again.
What concerns me is, should we gain promotion to the premier league, we would be destroyed and I'm not sure I could stand that sort of humiliation. When Burley took us up in 2000 and we had that great 2001 finishing 5th and getting back into europe the club got carried away and the following season.................well everyone knows what happened.
If we should get up there again I just hope MM & TC stay and do a proper job to keep us there and Mr Evans doesn't suddenly think his prayers have been answered because getting there is by comparison the easy bit.
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bluelodgeblue added 20:22 - Dec 27
carsey top man some very valid points. if and when you get to the PL its not a given its part of a plan which involves investment which goes as far to help ensure the longevity of the club within the PL. there are some classic examples of short sighted plans. We have to guard against owners grabbing the cheap n easy money of the premier league. You just have to look at west ham, Cardiff, Blackburn, Portsmouth, reading, QPR, and other examples and who knows ITFC ????? I hope I am wrong
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reaper added 09:54 - Dec 29
@Carsey I wouldn't care if we got promotion and then got relegated straight away. The financial impact of promotion would benefit the club for years to come. We might have one season of struggle in the Premiership but we would be able to afford better players and play better football in the Championship. Of course saying that I personally think Mick has a fantastic record of dodging relegation, so would hope he could keep us steady in the bottom half of the Premiership (though I'm not sure he can do any better than that).

A very interesting blog, a bit worrying that we haven't beaten the top 6. Of course we are building momentum now, and I think the confidence that comes from that could be the difference between finishing in the top 6 or just outside. You have also forgotten about the fairly recent signing of Hunt - him and Cresswell down the left could be deadly - if we manage to find a similar threat on the right side in January we could well become a real top 6 contender


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ChrisFelix added 13:38 - Dec 29
Although we lost to the top clubs I felt we were very unlucky against Reading & Wigan. As for the home games fortune wasnt with us when we played Burnley, Leeds & Leicester. If luck evens its self out then I suspect we will make the top 6. As i look at it I know the team is not good enough, however the manager has a predigree & thats whats important
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