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Inflation up to 2.3% 09:51 - Mar 21 with 3637 viewsBOjK

How are the Brexiteers going to spin this as good news?

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 09:53 - Mar 21 with 2797 viewsITFC_Forever

It's not any higher?

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 09:57 - Mar 21 with 2772 viewsbluefunk

There is an economic theory that inflation at around 2% is a good thing, the Govrner of the BoE used to have to write to the Chancellor when that target was missed IIRC
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Inflation up to 2.3% on 09:58 - Mar 21 with 2765 viewsblueconscience


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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:03 - Mar 21 with 2740 viewseireblue

We haven't left yet?
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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:14 - Mar 21 with 2715 viewsclive_baker

I don't get your point. 2% is widely regarded as a healthy level of inflation.

'Brexiteer' or otherwise, the economic outlook for the UK is good outside of the EU. The world isn't going to end post Brexit. Similarly we're not going to have gold plated hospital beds with our billions of savings we were promised. Both sides were fed nonsense and 90% of the general public lapped it up in one side of the fence or the other.

Would you rather we were in a period of economic deflation? Job cuts and increasing consumer debt. Sounds wonderful.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:18 - Mar 21 with 2690 viewsgiant_stow

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:14 - Mar 21 by clive_baker

I don't get your point. 2% is widely regarded as a healthy level of inflation.

'Brexiteer' or otherwise, the economic outlook for the UK is good outside of the EU. The world isn't going to end post Brexit. Similarly we're not going to have gold plated hospital beds with our billions of savings we were promised. Both sides were fed nonsense and 90% of the general public lapped it up in one side of the fence or the other.

Would you rather we were in a period of economic deflation? Job cuts and increasing consumer debt. Sounds wonderful.


isn't it more a case of this is probably just the beginning of the rises? I've seen predictions of a c. 5% rate soon...

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:20 - Mar 21 with 2670 viewsStokieBlue

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:18 - Mar 21 by giant_stow

isn't it more a case of this is probably just the beginning of the rises? I've seen predictions of a c. 5% rate soon...


Where did you see 5%? If you believe it then you should be looking into inflation linked bonds. The BoE implied forward inflation curve shows a maximum predicted value of ~4% in 2032 and then recedes back down to ~3.3% by 2042.

Bottom graph:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/pages/yieldcurve/default.aspx

This puts the inflation rate at 2.2% by 2020:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

Obviously lots of unknowns with Brexit looming though.

Realistically inflation has always been far higher than they have said but it's restricted by the basket of assets they use to calculate it. For example, if house prices were included then inflation over the last 15 years would be in double digits easily and it's pretty easy to argue that house price inflation is just as valid as the inflation on a loaf of bread.

SB
[Post edited 21 Mar 2017 10:25]

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:22 - Mar 21 with 2661 viewsDubtractor

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:20 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue

Where did you see 5%? If you believe it then you should be looking into inflation linked bonds. The BoE implied forward inflation curve shows a maximum predicted value of ~4% in 2032 and then recedes back down to ~3.3% by 2042.

Bottom graph:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/pages/yieldcurve/default.aspx

This puts the inflation rate at 2.2% by 2020:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

Obviously lots of unknowns with Brexit looming though.

Realistically inflation has always been far higher than they have said but it's restricted by the basket of assets they use to calculate it. For example, if house prices were included then inflation over the last 15 years would be in double digits easily and it's pretty easy to argue that house price inflation is just as valid as the inflation on a loaf of bread.

SB
[Post edited 21 Mar 2017 10:25]


Even more so if you were gluten intolerant.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:23 - Mar 21 with 2660 viewsBOjK

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:14 - Mar 21 by clive_baker

I don't get your point. 2% is widely regarded as a healthy level of inflation.

'Brexiteer' or otherwise, the economic outlook for the UK is good outside of the EU. The world isn't going to end post Brexit. Similarly we're not going to have gold plated hospital beds with our billions of savings we were promised. Both sides were fed nonsense and 90% of the general public lapped it up in one side of the fence or the other.

Would you rather we were in a period of economic deflation? Job cuts and increasing consumer debt. Sounds wonderful.


I'd hope that wages were able to rise in real terms. They didn't for ages after the financial crash, and are starting to shrink again now. We've had no real term wage rises for a decade.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:24 - Mar 21 with 2648 viewsgiant_stow

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:20 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue

Where did you see 5%? If you believe it then you should be looking into inflation linked bonds. The BoE implied forward inflation curve shows a maximum predicted value of ~4% in 2032 and then recedes back down to ~3.3% by 2042.

Bottom graph:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/pages/yieldcurve/default.aspx

This puts the inflation rate at 2.2% by 2020:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

Obviously lots of unknowns with Brexit looming though.

Realistically inflation has always been far higher than they have said but it's restricted by the basket of assets they use to calculate it. For example, if house prices were included then inflation over the last 15 years would be in double digits easily and it's pretty easy to argue that house price inflation is just as valid as the inflation on a loaf of bread.

SB
[Post edited 21 Mar 2017 10:25]


Can't remember tbh, but the gist of inflation continuing to rise is sound isn't it?

Agree re house prices.

edit: found some boids predicting 4%: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37838087

No idea how sound that is, but the Bofe is predicting 2.7%.
[Post edited 21 Mar 2017 10:27]

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:27 - Mar 21 with 2631 viewsStokieBlue

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:24 - Mar 21 by giant_stow

Can't remember tbh, but the gist of inflation continuing to rise is sound isn't it?

Agree re house prices.

edit: found some boids predicting 4%: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37838087

No idea how sound that is, but the Bofe is predicting 2.7%.
[Post edited 21 Mar 2017 10:27]


I've added some more information since your replied.

Inflation is a function of various parameters, if any was to change significantly then the trend of increase could be stopped or reversed.

SB

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:28 - Mar 21 with 2619 viewsgiant_stow

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:27 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue

I've added some more information since your replied.

Inflation is a function of various parameters, if any was to change significantly then the trend of increase could be stopped or reversed.

SB


we've crossed edits!!

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:30 - Mar 21 with 2607 viewsclive_baker

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:23 - Mar 21 by BOjK

I'd hope that wages were able to rise in real terms. They didn't for ages after the financial crash, and are starting to shrink again now. We've had no real term wage rises for a decade.


I'm sure we all would. We've seen relative wage deflation for over a decade now, well before Brexit reared it's head.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:31 - Mar 21 with 2600 viewsclive_baker

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:18 - Mar 21 by giant_stow

isn't it more a case of this is probably just the beginning of the rises? I've seen predictions of a c. 5% rate soon...


Ahh those reliable predictions.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:32 - Mar 21 with 2593 viewsTJS

Any prediction for 2032 or 2042 is laughable !
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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:35 - Mar 21 with 2559 viewsBOjK

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:30 - Mar 21 by clive_baker

I'm sure we all would. We've seen relative wage deflation for over a decade now, well before Brexit reared it's head.


Indeed. But wages were rising before we voted for Brexit - for about 2 years, but then the pound collapsed and the Brexiteers all shouted about how great this was as our exporters would get a great boost.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:36 - Mar 21 with 2549 viewsBOjK

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:32 - Mar 21 by TJS

Any prediction for 2032 or 2042 is laughable !


I imagine inflation will be pretty unchanged this evening.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:39 - Mar 21 with 2540 viewsIpswich_Crazy


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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:39 - Mar 21 with 2536 viewsFrowsyArmLarry

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:18 - Mar 21 by giant_stow

isn't it more a case of this is probably just the beginning of the rises? I've seen predictions of a c. 5% rate soon...


I wouldn't worry too much. When we do a trade deal with India and hundreds of thousands of web developers come over here you'll be out of work anyway, and this will all seem quite trivial
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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:46 - Mar 21 with 2515 viewsgiant_stow

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:39 - Mar 21 by FrowsyArmLarry

I wouldn't worry too much. When we do a trade deal with India and hundreds of thousands of web developers come over here you'll be out of work anyway, and this will all seem quite trivial


cheers fella!

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:48 - Mar 21 with 2495 viewsStokieBlue

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:46 - Mar 21 by giant_stow

cheers fella!

I have a grand plan to become a therapist - tell me about yourself....


Start a web coding for kids class in one of the coffee shops in Walthamstow.

I am sure the parents want little Archie to have the best possible start in life and surely willing to pay for coding. You could even provide avocado on toast for a bit extra.

SB

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:49 - Mar 21 with 2486 viewsNo9

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:20 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue

Where did you see 5%? If you believe it then you should be looking into inflation linked bonds. The BoE implied forward inflation curve shows a maximum predicted value of ~4% in 2032 and then recedes back down to ~3.3% by 2042.

Bottom graph:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/pages/yieldcurve/default.aspx

This puts the inflation rate at 2.2% by 2020:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

Obviously lots of unknowns with Brexit looming though.

Realistically inflation has always been far higher than they have said but it's restricted by the basket of assets they use to calculate it. For example, if house prices were included then inflation over the last 15 years would be in double digits easily and it's pretty easy to argue that house price inflation is just as valid as the inflation on a loaf of bread.

SB
[Post edited 21 Mar 2017 10:25]


Isn't it just a few weeks ago the the Brexiteers were damning the BoE for their incorrect forecasts?

the trading economics site isn't reliable is it?
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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:50 - Mar 21 with 2485 viewsgiant_stow

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:48 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue

Start a web coding for kids class in one of the coffee shops in Walthamstow.

I am sure the parents want little Archie to have the best possible start in life and surely willing to pay for coding. You could even provide avocado on toast for a bit extra.

SB


That's not such a bad idea!

There's so many new places openning up there its unreal, but have you tried avocado chocholat cake?! I haven't but the mrs made the boy try it and they both agreed it was sh1t.

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:50 - Mar 21 with 2476 viewsStokieBlue

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:49 - Mar 21 by No9

Isn't it just a few weeks ago the the Brexiteers were damning the BoE for their incorrect forecasts?

the trading economics site isn't reliable is it?


I don't know the answer to either question.

Unfortunately those are the best public sources I had time to find at the moment. The BoE forward curve should be pretty good, likely based off interpolation between traded futures contracts expiry.

SB

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Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:51 - Mar 21 with 2473 viewsStokieBlue

Inflation up to 2.3% on 10:50 - Mar 21 by giant_stow

That's not such a bad idea!

There's so many new places openning up there its unreal, but have you tried avocado chocholat cake?! I haven't but the mrs made the boy try it and they both agreed it was sh1t.


It sounds pretty awful, I think I will go with their judgement.

SB

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