| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? 22:32 - Jun 22 with 9460 views | Vic |
I hear many doomsday warnings, but no one says what the worst actually is. Will we become a third world country in Europe? Will we become like Romania or one of the former communist countries?
Genuine question. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:43 - Jun 22 with 7458 views | blue_oyster |
Define 'Brexit'. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:46 - Jun 22 with 7449 views | SWGF |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:43 - Jun 22 by blue_oyster |
Define 'Brexit'. |
Brexit means Brexit. A glorious red, white and blue Brexit.
God help us. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:51 - Jun 22 with 7433 views | Vic |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:43 - Jun 22 by blue_oyster |
Define 'Brexit'. |
For the sake of argument, let's say the Hard Brexit option - basically leaving pretty much everything.
Caveat - I actually think we'll have a pretty 'soft' brexit now. | |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 23:58 - Jun 22 with 7373 views | bluelagos |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:51 - Jun 22 by Vic |
For the sake of argument, let's say the Hard Brexit option - basically leaving pretty much everything.
Caveat - I actually think we'll have a pretty 'soft' brexit now. |
No deal would mean we default to WTO trading terms. These are basically tariffs on all imported goods (so we pay more) and exported goods (we sell less)
Consequences would be severe and impact on jobs and future growth, but how much is pure speculation/guess work.
But I doubt we'd end up like Romania rather that we face an avoidable recession and a decade or more of stagnation.
Having said all that, I think a deal will be done, albeit I doubt without some negative impact. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 00:12 - Jun 23 with 7350 views | ANNA3ROA |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:46 - Jun 22 by SWGF |
Brexit means Brexit. A glorious red, white and blue Brexit.
God help us. |
Brexit means Brexit = OUT of EU Soft Brexit = Staying in EU which means trouble god help us all 52% of UK voted brexit get over it. I will never vote again if we stay in the EU. |  | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 00:23 - Jun 23 with 7317 views | Darth_Koont |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 00:12 - Jun 23 by ANNA3ROA |
Brexit means Brexit = OUT of EU Soft Brexit = Staying in EU which means trouble god help us all 52% of UK voted brexit get over it. I will never vote again if we stay in the EU. |
You shouldn't even be allowed a vote on X Factor. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 00:56 - Jun 23 with 7278 views | bluejake78 |
Buy British.I note the COOP have got in early..Hat off. |  | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 01:33 - Jun 23 with 7257 views | benrhyddingblue |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 00:12 - Jun 23 by ANNA3ROA |
Brexit means Brexit = OUT of EU Soft Brexit = Staying in EU which means trouble god help us all 52% of UK voted brexit get over it. I will never vote again if we stay in the EU. |
52% of people who voted, voted to leave the EU. Not as you state 52% of the UK. |  | | |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 03:56 - Jun 23 with 7230 views | FrowsyArmLarry |
Rapid decline of the banking sector leaving us virtually bankrupt. The massive recession ushers in a communist dictatorship (initially posing as socialists) and within 25 years we look like NK... some board members are happy. [Post edited 23 Jun 2017 3:57]
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 04:43 - Jun 23 with 7210 views | RimmersBrace |
If we went to WTO, there would be some extra admin for businesses. Extra tariffs on some imports. Some goods would be much cheaper as we could source these outside the EU more cheaply. Some maybe more expensive.
The UK would earn significant tax income from imports on things like cars. This would be used to reduce corporation tax rates. This is what people are taking about when they say the UK will become a tax haven on the edge of Europe. On the financial side, not much will change. The internet and modern comms means that firms and their systems can be 'in Europe' while the real people are still in London.
Personally, I think the EU has served its purpose. We were right to go in and now we're right to go out. We live in a modern world, the EU has not changed with the times. Strategically, this is the right choice. But we do need to avoid a cliff edge.
The UK has drawn a great big red line in the sand now with immigration and cut off dates. It doesn't really matter if it takes 2 years or 10 years to leave the single market. It doesn't really matter if we don't get a trade deal as long as businesses have time to adapt. |  | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 05:34 - Jun 23 with 7179 views | Illinoisblue |
We lose to Luton |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 07:26 - Jun 23 with 7104 views | homer_123 |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 01:33 - Jun 23 by benrhyddingblue |
52% of people who voted, voted to leave the EU. Not as you state 52% of the UK. |
Indeed - anyone that didn't vote that could have has no reason to complain.
Those that voted to Remain cannot complain either....the fact their campaign didn't galvanise enough people to vote is telling....let's face neither....neither the Remain or Leave side could actually really tell us with any certainty what the outcomes of staying and going are. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 07:33 - Jun 23 with 7094 views | homer_123 |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 23:58 - Jun 22 by bluelagos |
No deal would mean we default to WTO trading terms. These are basically tariffs on all imported goods (so we pay more) and exported goods (we sell less)
Consequences would be severe and impact on jobs and future growth, but how much is pure speculation/guess work.
But I doubt we'd end up like Romania rather that we face an avoidable recession and a decade or more of stagnation.
Having said all that, I think a deal will be done, albeit I doubt without some negative impact. |
'Consequences would be severe and impact on jobs and future growth, but how much is pure speculation/guess work. '
The fact remains that no one can say for certain whether remaining in the EU or leaving the EU will actually be better in the long run, no one knows nor can accurately predict.
If the EU continues on its current course, I'd argue that being within it could be as severe for the UK as leaving. Look at the top German bank for example and it's looming financial issues. Greece is still a major headache as well as Italy's financial situation. Factor in the moves that have been mooted with regards to more decision being taken centrally (see the Canadian trade deal and the comments from Brussels stating that these sorts of deals are too important to be held up/ scuppered by regional provinces and that these should be ratified o behalf of memeber states centrally by committee).
So, one can put a strong argument forward to say the consequences of staying are equally if not more severe than leaving.
Any with an ounce of understanding of business will know that, if we move to WTO then as a country there will be areas where we can benefit and areas that will be tougher....so your note about tarriffs isn't quite the full story Lagos.
Anyways - I said from the outset that what I believe will happen is that we end on not leaving the EU - that, in some way or other our current relationship (where we are not exactly within the EU) will broadly remain. | |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 07:40 - Jun 23 with 7078 views | Steve_M |
No deal, forced to take whatever WTO rates we are offered by anyone, enormous queue at borders for goods because there is no customs infrastructure to process them. Large volumes of financial services and other companies leaving London to go to an EU country, greatly reducing tax take.
And add that to a loss of global influence which we are already suffering from because of the bluster of May and Johnson; we don't appear a serious country any more to many Europeans. It isn't the decision to leave but the wilful refusal of our government to allow any criticism or discussion of risk for the last year.
Regardless of the supposed long-term benefits, they can't be achieved within a two year framework; there are too many areas of legislation to review properly. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 07:58 - Jun 23 with 7045 views | Herbivore |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 00:12 - Jun 23 by ANNA3ROA |
Brexit means Brexit = OUT of EU Soft Brexit = Staying in EU which means trouble god help us all 52% of UK voted brexit get over it. I will never vote again if we stay in the EU. |
Yet another reason to remain. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 08:15 - Jun 23 with 7017 views | meekreech |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 03:56 - Jun 23 by FrowsyArmLarry |
Rapid decline of the banking sector leaving us virtually bankrupt. The massive recession ushers in a communist dictatorship (initially posing as socialists) and within 25 years we look like NK... some board members are happy. [Post edited 23 Jun 2017 3:57]
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You must be talking of the results of corbyn and his fellow travellers ever becoming the government of this country! | |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 08:19 - Jun 23 with 7011 views | Freddies_Ears |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 07:40 - Jun 23 by Steve_M |
No deal, forced to take whatever WTO rates we are offered by anyone, enormous queue at borders for goods because there is no customs infrastructure to process them. Large volumes of financial services and other companies leaving London to go to an EU country, greatly reducing tax take.
And add that to a loss of global influence which we are already suffering from because of the bluster of May and Johnson; we don't appear a serious country any more to many Europeans. It isn't the decision to leave but the wilful refusal of our government to allow any criticism or discussion of risk for the last year.
Regardless of the supposed long-term benefits, they can't be achieved within a two year framework; there are too many areas of legislation to review properly. |
It is hard to assess how bad it might be. Even the government, by their own admission, have carried out no impact assessment on hard Brexit, and have not begun to look at the practical implications.
Border customs checks would mean huge difficulties for many manufacturers, so some would relocate, for example. Port infrastructure would need massive development.
Financial services would start to move quickly. There was a front page story in a reputable German paper this week that several major banks are looking for much more office space in Frankfurt, anticipating around 10,000 highly-paid jobs moving there in the first wave. (That would mean around 30000 lost jobs here - the 10000 plus the knock-on impact on spending on everything from shops to bars and restaurants to transport, as well as the service jobs that don't move, such as reception, canteen, admin services, back office stuff).
That's just one bit of chapter one. I think I am glad I don't understand the big picture. | | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 08:43 - Jun 23 with 6995 views | hampstead_blue |
It will be fine. The reason the press are spinning stories of doom is that when we leave, Europe in it's current state will be shown in it's true colours.
If you read "Adults in the Room" and "The weak suffer what they must", both about Greece and how Europe treated it's people, you will see that provided David Davis has a hefty set of balls we will give them a few bloody noses.
If we do get a good deal, this should be the end of Europe in it's current rotten state.
The louder and more rabid the press get, the better it is for the UK. They are getting fed BS on a grand scale by Europe.
Europe has so much to lose, we don't!!! |  |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 09:03 - Jun 23 with 6968 views | BOjK |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 08:19 - Jun 23 by Freddies_Ears |
It is hard to assess how bad it might be. Even the government, by their own admission, have carried out no impact assessment on hard Brexit, and have not begun to look at the practical implications.
Border customs checks would mean huge difficulties for many manufacturers, so some would relocate, for example. Port infrastructure would need massive development.
Financial services would start to move quickly. There was a front page story in a reputable German paper this week that several major banks are looking for much more office space in Frankfurt, anticipating around 10,000 highly-paid jobs moving there in the first wave. (That would mean around 30000 lost jobs here - the 10000 plus the knock-on impact on spending on everything from shops to bars and restaurants to transport, as well as the service jobs that don't move, such as reception, canteen, admin services, back office stuff).
That's just one bit of chapter one. I think I am glad I don't understand the big picture. |
The worst case scenario (which is pretty unlikely) is that the financial sector take flight out of London. Then we are in serious trouble that will result in a permanent reduction in tax revenue for the government. There would pretty obviously be a big recession after that followed by many more years of grinding austerity.
But that isn't going to happen imo. The government understand the financial sector - or at least have visibility of it - so are going to go out hard to protect it and encourage the banks to stay. Same with manufacturers like Nissan. They are so visible that there is no way the government will let them leave. They'll subsidise their new costs if they have to.
It is the small, less visible companies you need to worry about.
Border checks are a potential nightmare with knock-on affects to hundreds of small manufacturers. Getting this sorted out if we are out of the customs union could be a real struggle.
Immigration is a massive challenge too. If we are serious about reducing the numbers coming into this country, we need to identify those sectors where we will stop immigration. I work in the tech sector (for companies who either sell mobile phones - you'll have heard of those - or who sell components that go into mobile phone - you won't have heard of those). The companies are rarely British, instead they are satellite development offices of multinationals. These are almost without exception entirely untenable without easy movement of Labour from within the EU. The workforces have British represenation, sure, but are very diverse. If immigration is difficult they'll have no choice to move elsewhere to main effectiveness.
And that's in the little bit of the economy that I know about. Agriculture, tourism, leisure, healthcare, universities and so on are industries hugely dependent upon access to a wider jobs market.
Still, we can now act on the important issues that have been holding us back for years:
[Post edited 23 Jun 2017 9:04]
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 09:51 - Jun 23 with 6923 views | No9 |
Because we rely heavily on the EU for almost everything it is very difficult to ascertain just how bad it can get.
Look around you and take stock of what comes from the EU & then work out how we are gojng to manage without that.
Without masive investment in the UK and a change in the tax environment from one where we have little or no incentive to invest long term but are encouraged to rip out profits short term things could get really bad.
The reason no one wants to talk about it is because no one wants to contemplate it.
I read this morning a barrister has released an opinion that the triggering of Article 50 didn't happen
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-article-50-illusion-never- | | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 09:56 - Jun 23 with 6909 views | blue_oyster |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:51 - Jun 22 by Vic |
For the sake of argument, let's say the Hard Brexit option - basically leaving pretty much everything.
Caveat - I actually think we'll have a pretty 'soft' brexit now. |
Agree, we will almost certainly have to remain in the EEA as I said last year.
If we were 'out of everything', hardest things to overcome will be non-tariff barriers and the border we'll have to implement and maintain between British mainlaid and Northern Ireland. | |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 11:47 - Jun 23 with 6824 views | No9 |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 22:51 - Jun 22 by Vic |
For the sake of argument, let's say the Hard Brexit option - basically leaving pretty much everything.
Caveat - I actually think we'll have a pretty 'soft' brexit now. |
"Caveat - I actually think we'll have a pretty 'soft' brexit now."
The tories will have to split first, it is inconcieveable the likes of redwood, Rees-Mogg, Cash, Bone, Fox, IDS et al will bow to that | | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 12:35 - Jun 23 with 6797 views | Guthrum |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 09:51 - Jun 23 by No9 |
Because we rely heavily on the EU for almost everything it is very difficult to ascertain just how bad it can get.
Look around you and take stock of what comes from the EU & then work out how we are gojng to manage without that.
Without masive investment in the UK and a change in the tax environment from one where we have little or no incentive to invest long term but are encouraged to rip out profits short term things could get really bad.
The reason no one wants to talk about it is because no one wants to contemplate it.
I read this morning a barrister has released an opinion that the triggering of Article 50 didn't happen
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-article-50-illusion-never- |
It's an Act of Parliament passed to specifically authorise the Prime Minister to give notice, as required by Article 50, of an intention to leave the EU. The Act was passed with the full knowlege that Theresa May (in line with declared government policy) intended to carry out such an action within a very short time after. How much more definite does he want?
Tortuous semantic special pleading is not the way to go about dealing with this situation. |  |
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| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 13:00 - Jun 23 with 6757 views | No9 |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 12:35 - Jun 23 by Guthrum |
It's an Act of Parliament passed to specifically authorise the Prime Minister to give notice, as required by Article 50, of an intention to leave the EU. The Act was passed with the full knowlege that Theresa May (in line with declared government policy) intended to carry out such an action within a very short time after. How much more definite does he want?
Tortuous semantic special pleading is not the way to go about dealing with this situation. |
The barrister has made a legal case, have you read his opinion?
The opinion is given based on the way in which things were done, but you think his opinion is wrong, based on what?
The EU law is quite simple and states the member wishing to leave must do so in accordance with it's own constitution. What the piece says, broadly, is that this hasn't been done.
This is anyone of a number of challenges that may yet emerge | | | |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 13:10 - Jun 23 with 6732 views | blue_oyster |
| What's the worst that can happen after Brexit? on 13:00 - Jun 23 by No9 |
The barrister has made a legal case, have you read his opinion?
The opinion is given based on the way in which things were done, but you think his opinion is wrong, based on what?
The EU law is quite simple and states the member wishing to leave must do so in accordance with it's own constitution. What the piece says, broadly, is that this hasn't been done.
This is anyone of a number of challenges that may yet emerge |
Then he's ignoring the fact that the trigger to leave was discussed in Parliament, and legislation passed which is constitutional. | |
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