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I understand the statistical argument, but its really not evidence of life. We might be unique, or exceedingly rare. Most experts think there is a good likelihood, but to say that they all think life exists is, I think, stretching it. Most would say we dont know- and would point to things like the Fermi paradox which raises some interesting questions. They would say, I imagine, that the likelihood is high, but not that they have any certainty.
I would say intelligent life "exceedingly rare", but given the number of "earthlike planets" that must exist IMO in the universe due the number of stars/galaxies there must be some somewhere. Basic life probably more common and indeed in existence on these pages it would appear. To believe that we are the only intelligent life in the universe is simillar to the old belief that the Earth is at it`s center. Then what about all the other universes?
Thing is, we don't know enough yet about how life initiates to be able to say whether it would occur on an even statistical basis across the whole universe, or if chance factors (e.g. water-carrying asteroid impact at a particular stage in the development of a planet with exactly the correct chemical composition, the right distance away from the apropriate sort of star) might make it extremely rare.
Chances are more likely it's some sort of biochemical goo either very close (if such is found to exist almost everywhere), or more like 21 million light years away.
As for the theological implications, I can't think of any of the major world religions which specifically excludes the possibility of inhabited places elsewhere.
Thing is, we don't know enough yet about how life initiates to be able to say whether it would occur on an even statistical basis across the whole universe, or if chance factors (e.g. water-carrying asteroid impact at a particular stage in the development of a planet with exactly the correct chemical composition, the right distance away from the apropriate sort of star) might make it extremely rare.
Chances are more likely it's some sort of biochemical goo either very close (if such is found to exist almost everywhere), or more like 21 million light years away.
As for the theological implications, I can't think of any of the major world religions which specifically excludes the possibility of inhabited places elsewhere.
It seems a lot of solar systems seem to have planets within the habitable zone (Look at Trappist) and that the habitable zone is widening as we find out more about life on our own planet. It's becoming much more frequent to find planets within the habitable zone now.
With regards to the type of star, that matters less. The habitable zone moves in proportion to the radiation given off by the star, so the habitable zone around Trappist is much closer in because it's a dwarf star. Still a relevant factor as you point out though.
It's incredibly unlikely we will hear radio waves, our civilisation will stop emitting them soon enough in favour of more point-to-point systems like lasers. There are other ways to detect civilisations though depending on their level of advancement from orbital structures to the composition of the atmosphere (the James Webb telescope will help with that analysis).
Studies have shown that the whole of the milky way could be colonised in around 1 million years by a civilisation with slower-than-light propulsion methods. However you are probably right that we won't be able to contact any existing civilisation. That does not mean given the numbers they don't exist.
Realistically if we contact/meet aliens they are likely to be robotic in nature or some form of von neumann machine.
It's a very interesting topic.
SB
"Realistically if we contact/meet aliens they are likely to be robotic in nature or some form of von neumann machine."
It was/is genuine on my part, Anonymous group are claiming NASA is preparing to announce the existence of aliens basically and they seem pretty legit about it.
"Realistically if we contact/meet aliens they are likely to be robotic in nature or some form of von neumann machine."
Why?
Because time is irrelevant to a machine, in the case of robots they can idle for the long periods of travel and are far more versatile on where they can live. It could even be a machine with a consciousness from an original living being.
Von neumann machines are self-replicating machines, migrating to the next solar system, building more and expanding exponentially. It's the exponential expansion which means they will spread out faster and more liberally which means they are a likely suspect if we have contact.
There are a number of articles available on this, here is the first one that came up on Google:
Because time is irrelevant to a machine, in the case of robots they can idle for the long periods of travel and are far more versatile on where they can live. It could even be a machine with a consciousness from an original living being.
Von neumann machines are self-replicating machines, migrating to the next solar system, building more and expanding exponentially. It's the exponential expansion which means they will spread out faster and more liberally which means they are a likely suspect if we have contact.
There are a number of articles available on this, here is the first one that came up on Google:
Because time is irrelevant to a machine, in the case of robots they can idle for the long periods of travel and are far more versatile on where they can live. It could even be a machine with a consciousness from an original living being.
Von neumann machines are self-replicating machines, migrating to the next solar system, building more and expanding exponentially. It's the exponential expansion which means they will spread out faster and more liberally which means they are a likely suspect if we have contact.
There are a number of articles available on this, here is the first one that came up on Google:
This. It's bordering on a statistical impossibility that we are the only planet with life.
People don't like being told they aren't special and there is a host of religious ramifications as 95% of people on Earth align themselves to a faith.
As SB implies there is little chance it will be some chap with antennae who wants to challenge us to a galaxy Olympics but more likely a badger like creature 21 light years away.
Given the statistics we should expect every possiblity and be surprised by nothing.
Brian Cox thinks we are alone. He's a scientist. He doubts the existence of God, but doesn't dismiss the possibility completely (as no good scientist should).
Brian Cox thinks we are alone. He's a scientist. He doubts the existence of God, but doesn't dismiss the possibility completely (as no good scientist should).
Well, he thinks aliens have existed but that intelligent life has the tendency to kill itself off.
Quite an interesting position given we know of 1 intelligent species and they haven't killed themselves off yet.
But the probability is that we will not last as long as the dinosaurs...
A salient point, the dinosaurs were very successful but they were many species and they weren't intelligent. We at least have the ability and knowledge to attempt to do something about what caused their demise.
Although once/if humans leave the earth all bets are off. Once a species becomes multi planet, many of the large extinction events cannot kill off the whole population any more.
A salient point, the dinosaurs were very successful but they were many species and they weren't intelligent. We at least have the ability and knowledge to attempt to do something about what caused their demise.
Although once/if humans leave the earth all bets are off. Once a species becomes multi planet, many of the large extinction events cannot kill off the whole population any more.
SB
But will life from Earth go interplanetary before or after Homo Sapiens is subject to a speciation event (a bifurcation in our branch of the Tree Of Life)? And once we have different environments to adapt to will this increase mutations and we become the mere basis for other species?
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