| The Atlantic is looking busy 12:13 - Sep 12 with 2855 views | StokieBlue |
Been a quiet hurricane season but looks like maybe there is a sting in the tail:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Helene and Disruption 2 might give us some grief next week. Looks like the US are on top of their evacuation so hopefully all should be fine when Florence hits.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:20 - Sep 12 with 2831 views | Kieran_Knows |
Do we know if any of them are hitting Orlando way....? Would just be my luck as I'm off on holiday there this Friday..... |  |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:31 - Sep 12 with 2798 views | Kieran_Knows |
Ha, wouldn't surprise me!
Cheers for that, looks like we may just miss them all! | |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:32 - Sep 12 with 2795 views | hype313 |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:20 - Sep 12 by Kieran_Knows |
Do we know if any of them are hitting Orlando way....? Would just be my luck as I'm off on holiday there this Friday..... |
Stay put, and go to Hull instead... |  |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:34 - Sep 12 with 2787 views | Kieran_Knows |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:32 - Sep 12 by hype313 |
Stay put, and go to Hull instead... |
Tempting, especially at £12 a ticket!
That said, I'm watching Orlando City v Houston Dynamo whilst i'm there, £20 for the ticket wasn't too bad I thought ..... 'lets go Orlando, lets go'. | |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:42 - Sep 12 with 2761 views | hype313 |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:34 - Sep 12 by Kieran_Knows |
Tempting, especially at £12 a ticket!
That said, I'm watching Orlando City v Houston Dynamo whilst i'm there, £20 for the ticket wasn't too bad I thought ..... 'lets go Orlando, lets go'. |
Should see some goals then, Senderos plays for Houston! | |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:44 - Sep 12 with 2755 views | Kieran_Knows |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 12:42 - Sep 12 by hype313 |
Should see some goals then, Senderos plays for Houston! |
Didn't realise that, goal fest for sure! | |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:20 - Sep 12 with 2715 views | BlueinBrum |
Watching with a lot of interest as it will be of crucial importance to my industry (which is commercial & specialty insurance).
A lot of hurricane-exposed risks are insured in London, either on a direct basis for the more complex stuff or they are insured locally and then resinsured in the London market. London insurers are already having a tough time with the market being very competitive and another bad hurricane season could finish a few of them off. Last year was one of the most expensive years on record but unfortunately for the insurers it wasn't quite bad enough to drive prices up in a big way, but another year of battering could do. |  | | |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:25 - Sep 12 with 2701 views | ElephantintheRoom |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:20 - Sep 12 by BlueinBrum |
Watching with a lot of interest as it will be of crucial importance to my industry (which is commercial & specialty insurance).
A lot of hurricane-exposed risks are insured in London, either on a direct basis for the more complex stuff or they are insured locally and then resinsured in the London market. London insurers are already having a tough time with the market being very competitive and another bad hurricane season could finish a few of them off. Last year was one of the most expensive years on record but unfortunately for the insurers it wasn't quite bad enough to drive prices up in a big way, but another year of battering could do. |
And why precisely does London 'reinsure North Carolina hurricane risk'? Could it be that they have no idea just how risky that business is? Or do reinsurers take the money and run leaving someone else to pick up the debris? |  |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:33 - Sep 12 with 2682 views | StokieBlue |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:20 - Sep 12 by BlueinBrum |
Watching with a lot of interest as it will be of crucial importance to my industry (which is commercial & specialty insurance).
A lot of hurricane-exposed risks are insured in London, either on a direct basis for the more complex stuff or they are insured locally and then resinsured in the London market. London insurers are already having a tough time with the market being very competitive and another bad hurricane season could finish a few of them off. Last year was one of the most expensive years on record but unfortunately for the insurers it wasn't quite bad enough to drive prices up in a big way, but another year of battering could do. |
Do you pass on some of the risk through catastrophe bond issuance?
With the reinsurance, the risk is pretty much in your control depending on where you want to be on the structure isn't it?
This year doesn't look like it's going to shape up as badly as last year - only a month or so left in the season but I guess all it takes is one big one. Looks like the US are on top of it though so hopefully just property damage and no loss of life.
SB [Post edited 12 Sep 2018 13:42]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:37 - Sep 12 with 2674 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
It's lucky it didn't shift north and hit a much more populated area. SC/NC are going to get it though. Over 100 MPH when it hits land. Also it's been a very wet summer all down the east coast (we have had an entire years rainfall in 3 months) basically the opposite to the UK by the sounds of it.
That is an issue for
1) Flooding
2) Trees coming down much easier
My mate picked a good week to go on holiday to the outer banks! |  | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:39 - Sep 12 with 2669 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:20 - Sep 12 by BlueinBrum |
Watching with a lot of interest as it will be of crucial importance to my industry (which is commercial & specialty insurance).
A lot of hurricane-exposed risks are insured in London, either on a direct basis for the more complex stuff or they are insured locally and then resinsured in the London market. London insurers are already having a tough time with the market being very competitive and another bad hurricane season could finish a few of them off. Last year was one of the most expensive years on record but unfortunately for the insurers it wasn't quite bad enough to drive prices up in a big way, but another year of battering could do. |
I'm praying for you, is it ok if I give an after thought for the people fleeing for their lives and about to lose their homes and possessions? | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:13 - Sep 12 with 2608 views | BlueinBrum |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:33 - Sep 12 by StokieBlue |
Do you pass on some of the risk through catastrophe bond issuance?
With the reinsurance, the risk is pretty much in your control depending on where you want to be on the structure isn't it?
This year doesn't look like it's going to shape up as badly as last year - only a month or so left in the season but I guess all it takes is one big one. Looks like the US are on top of it though so hopefully just property damage and no loss of life.
SB [Post edited 12 Sep 2018 13:42]
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Cat bonds are an important (and fast growing) source of capital for the reinsurance market but the majority is still supplied by "traditional" means, i.e. through a reinsurance company. Off the top of my head i think around 10-15% of capital is now supplied by "non-traditional" insurance linked securities including cat bonds.
Yes, i think that's fair to say in essence. The global insurance market (and London particularly) is setup so that insurance carriers can take a stance on where they want to play on a certain programme, for example by only participating on "excess" rather than "primary" layers, and/or by purchasing reinsurance of some kind. Reinsurers themselves also often by reinsurance (called retrocession), so the big risks get spread around the market quite effectively.
The challenge has been that for the last decade or more the market has generally been softening, that is to say there's too much supply and it's been very much a buyers' market. There are lots of reasons for this but in-short the (re)insurance market still remains an attractive place for investment, exacerbated by low global interest rate environment, and therefore the capital keeps on coming. Harvey, Irma and Maria (insured loses of $100m or so) did enough to slow the downward pricing trend last year but insurers still haven't been able to push up rates to the level they would like to. | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:19 - Sep 12 with 2595 views | No9 |
You know, the most surprising thing about any of this is that the USA has had this problem for many, many years but they still never seem to be prepared ? | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:27 - Sep 12 with 2579 views | BlueinBrum |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 13:39 - Sep 12 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I'm praying for you, is it ok if I give an after thought for the people fleeing for their lives and about to lose their homes and possessions? |
I work for a broker mate don't worry about me. It's those poor underwriters across the road you should spare a thought for. Bless their cotton socks.
In seriousness I don't mean to de-humanise the event. It must be terrifying and I hope it turns out better than it looks like it could. I just find it interesting from a professional perspective too. | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:28 - Sep 12 with 2577 views | StokieBlue |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:13 - Sep 12 by BlueinBrum |
Cat bonds are an important (and fast growing) source of capital for the reinsurance market but the majority is still supplied by "traditional" means, i.e. through a reinsurance company. Off the top of my head i think around 10-15% of capital is now supplied by "non-traditional" insurance linked securities including cat bonds.
Yes, i think that's fair to say in essence. The global insurance market (and London particularly) is setup so that insurance carriers can take a stance on where they want to play on a certain programme, for example by only participating on "excess" rather than "primary" layers, and/or by purchasing reinsurance of some kind. Reinsurers themselves also often by reinsurance (called retrocession), so the big risks get spread around the market quite effectively.
The challenge has been that for the last decade or more the market has generally been softening, that is to say there's too much supply and it's been very much a buyers' market. There are lots of reasons for this but in-short the (re)insurance market still remains an attractive place for investment, exacerbated by low global interest rate environment, and therefore the capital keeps on coming. Harvey, Irma and Maria (insured loses of $100m or so) did enough to slow the downward pricing trend last year but insurers still haven't been able to push up rates to the level they would like to. |
Are cat bonds still a growing market?
They are almost impossible to model so they are basically a punt for whoever is buying them. Massive coupons of course but only for the very risk keen investor.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:56 - Sep 12 with 2552 views | floridablue |
Exactly a year ago Orlando area was hit by Hurricane Irma. Thousands of homes suffered damage, mine needed a complete re-roof shingle and pool screens and cost my home insurance $15,000. You can still see some homes with blue tarps covering roof damage a year later. Would hate to be in the path of this monster! | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:06 - Sep 12 with 2532 views | BlueinBrum |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:28 - Sep 12 by StokieBlue |
Are cat bonds still a growing market?
They are almost impossible to model so they are basically a punt for whoever is buying them. Massive coupons of course but only for the very risk keen investor.
SB |
Apparently so. I'm far from an expert on the subject but just reading a trade press article from last week saying ILS market is now at $100bn. https://www.insuranceinsider.com/articles/121562/ils-market-approaches-100bn-aon
I that's behind a paywall so here's the opening couple of paras:
Alternative reinsurance capital swelled to a record $98bn at mid-year, driven by 16 percent year-on-year growth in the now-$30bn cat bond market, said Aon Securities in its latest ILS market review.
The collateralised reinsurance and ILW segments both increased by 10 percent from a year earlier.
ILS managers more than replenished the capital lost in the third quarter of 8 percent of assets under management or around $7bn during fundraising at the end of 2017.
“Following record catastrophe bond issuance in 2017, and the losses from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria that year, the ILS market has maintained its robust performance and has actually moved to a new level in terms of the number of bonds active in the market,” said chief executive officer of Aon Securities Paul Schultz.
“We believe that 2018 will see another strong performance.” | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:12 - Sep 12 with 2518 views | StokieBlue |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:06 - Sep 12 by BlueinBrum |
Apparently so. I'm far from an expert on the subject but just reading a trade press article from last week saying ILS market is now at $100bn. https://www.insuranceinsider.com/articles/121562/ils-market-approaches-100bn-aon
I that's behind a paywall so here's the opening couple of paras:
Alternative reinsurance capital swelled to a record $98bn at mid-year, driven by 16 percent year-on-year growth in the now-$30bn cat bond market, said Aon Securities in its latest ILS market review.
The collateralised reinsurance and ILW segments both increased by 10 percent from a year earlier.
ILS managers more than replenished the capital lost in the third quarter of 8 percent of assets under management or around $7bn during fundraising at the end of 2017.
“Following record catastrophe bond issuance in 2017, and the losses from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria that year, the ILS market has maintained its robust performance and has actually moved to a new level in terms of the number of bonds active in the market,” said chief executive officer of Aon Securities Paul Schultz.
“We believe that 2018 will see another strong performance.” |
There are hedge funds that take on a lot of cat bond risk, it is still essentially a punt though.
Usually 3 years of ~20% coupons so if there are no trigger events then you get a 60% ROI which is clearly massive. However given the modelling of the risk is essentially total guesswork (otherwise scientists would be able to predict hurricanes 3 years in advance) it's too risky for many.
That market doesn't just cover wind, it will also cover earthquake triggered bonds which are even more harder to model than wind based triggers.
Interesting from a scientific/mathematical perspective though.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:30 - Sep 12 with 2500 views | BlueinBrum |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:12 - Sep 12 by StokieBlue |
There are hedge funds that take on a lot of cat bond risk, it is still essentially a punt though.
Usually 3 years of ~20% coupons so if there are no trigger events then you get a 60% ROI which is clearly massive. However given the modelling of the risk is essentially total guesswork (otherwise scientists would be able to predict hurricanes 3 years in advance) it's too risky for many.
That market doesn't just cover wind, it will also cover earthquake triggered bonds which are even more harder to model than wind based triggers.
Interesting from a scientific/mathematical perspective though.
SB |
Yeah that's true. And a good diversification tool given they have little/no correlation to other markets. | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:55 - Sep 12 with 2472 views | Guthrum |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:19 - Sep 12 by No9 |
You know, the most surprising thing about any of this is that the USA has had this problem for many, many years but they still never seem to be prepared ? |
They do seem pretty well prepared (evacuation plans, advice on the TV). It's just you don't get that much warning of how a storm is developing or exactly which way it's heading. There's a vast length of coastline at risk over the season, from west of New Orleans right up to southern Virginia, any part of which could potentially be hit. |  |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 16:03 - Sep 12 with 2463 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:19 - Sep 12 by No9 |
You know, the most surprising thing about any of this is that the USA has had this problem for many, many years but they still never seem to be prepared ? |
I can only comment from my experiences over there, and we were in a very rural area, but it seems much more community orientated (as is much of their local governance) than here where you'd have a lot more agencies organising things on the ground. As such, there's only so much people can do when faced with a major natural event.
Obviously they have high level warnings, but then people are pretty much left to get on with it themselves and help out neighbours where they can. The sheer scale and distances involved also makes response difficult - we went without power for a week after a storm created havoc last autumn (edit - it wasn't even a big storm by our standards, let alone a hurricane).
My take home message from America was that it's a wild place where lots of things are out to kill you and you need to learn to deal with it yourself! [Post edited 12 Sep 2018 16:05]
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 16:11 - Sep 12 with 2448 views | Illinoisblue |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 14:56 - Sep 12 by floridablue |
Exactly a year ago Orlando area was hit by Hurricane Irma. Thousands of homes suffered damage, mine needed a complete re-roof shingle and pool screens and cost my home insurance $15,000. You can still see some homes with blue tarps covering roof damage a year later. Would hate to be in the path of this monster! |
it often seems the more the media hype these storms up, the less impactful the storm event actually is. BUT... in this case, it does appear to be a beast. Our Raleigh office is pretty much closing down for the rest of the week. |  |
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| The Atlantic is looking busy on 16:18 - Sep 12 with 2439 views | blueislander |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 15:30 - Sep 12 by BlueinBrum |
Yeah that's true. And a good diversification tool given they have little/no correlation to other markets. |
I have a cat bond in a diversified portfolio. It got "badly hit" a year or so ago , but only went down around 10% which was less than half of the prevous three year's appreciation. | | | |
| The Atlantic is looking busy on 17:45 - Sep 12 with 2384 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
The one beginning with H is coming our way....either very wet and windy or if it stays west will throw up a lovely warm plume from Spain/N.Africa. Time will tell. |  |
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