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Interesting from carney 20:39 - Sep 13 with 2446 viewsgiant_ullaa

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/13/no-deal-brexit-could-be-as-bad-

Call the whole thing off?

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry.
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Interesting from carney on 20:43 - Sep 13 with 2429 viewsJ2BLUE

Go on then. Do it

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Interesting from carney on 21:14 - Sep 13 with 2410 viewsclive_baker

Don’t get me wrong I’m a remained but 30% fall in house prices? I’ll believe that when I see it.

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Interesting from carney on 21:22 - Sep 13 with 2392 viewsclive_baker

Interesting from carney on 20:43 - Sep 13 by J2BLUE

Go on then. Do it


Thought you wanted oot?

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Interesting from carney on 21:36 - Sep 13 with 2345 viewsJ2BLUE

Interesting from carney on 21:22 - Sep 13 by clive_baker

Thought you wanted oot?


Brexit has dominated everything for over two years. It had divided the country and other serious issues have been pushed aside while the two factions battle over Brexit. Eventually there will probably be a compromise where, to quote Chico, instead of being half in we'll be half out.

The leave argument has been dismantled in several key areas and we're seemingly left with a gamble that things will carry on as normal. Not be better, but get back to the pre-referendum level. Seems a pointless exercise now. It seems the next leadership contest will mainly come down to Brexit. If we see BJ or Rees-Mogg etc become leader the country will be further divided. I have said for a while we'll end up having a second referendum at the last minute. I think they are laying it on thick now so May can 'backtrack' and offer a deal vs remain vote which remain will win comfortably.

Lets just get on with it and then we can properly focus on the NHS and other key issues.

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Interesting from carney on 21:39 - Sep 13 with 2339 viewsclive_baker

Interesting from carney on 21:36 - Sep 13 by J2BLUE

Brexit has dominated everything for over two years. It had divided the country and other serious issues have been pushed aside while the two factions battle over Brexit. Eventually there will probably be a compromise where, to quote Chico, instead of being half in we'll be half out.

The leave argument has been dismantled in several key areas and we're seemingly left with a gamble that things will carry on as normal. Not be better, but get back to the pre-referendum level. Seems a pointless exercise now. It seems the next leadership contest will mainly come down to Brexit. If we see BJ or Rees-Mogg etc become leader the country will be further divided. I have said for a while we'll end up having a second referendum at the last minute. I think they are laying it on thick now so May can 'backtrack' and offer a deal vs remain vote which remain will win comfortably.

Lets just get on with it and then we can properly focus on the NHS and other key issues.


Couldn’t agree more fam. Big waste of time and money. Sack it off.

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Interesting from carney on 22:05 - Sep 13 with 2297 viewsjjblue84

More incorrect predictions from Carney? He never gives up does he...
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Interesting from carney on 10:33 - Sep 14 with 2037 viewsLord_Lucan

Carney is a very astute man but I disagree with him.

Quite frankly I am appalled at they way the government has handled Brexit talks, as a very small businessman with a tin pot company I am sure I could have done a better job.

In fact I don't actually understand why they are faffing about, I was / am a remainer but I lost. I have dealt with this. If we are out we have to be OUT and the only answer is a hard Brexit.

We should have immediately said "Ok, we are gone, if you want to trade let's talk". Unfortunately we are going to end up with this stupid Chequers deal at best, we are going to retain all the bad parts of the European Union and give up any good bits.

I don't think the whole thing could have been handled any worse.

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Interesting from carney on 10:36 - Sep 14 with 2029 viewsCotty

Interesting from carney on 21:14 - Sep 13 by clive_baker

Don’t get me wrong I’m a remained but 30% fall in house prices? I’ll believe that when I see it.


There already has been if you look at the prices in Euros or dollars!
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Interesting from carney on 12:22 - Sep 14 with 1970 viewsTractorWood

The Guardian talking about Carney, about Brexit. That's likely to be glass half full.

I'm an absolute remainer and that's too much to read.

I know that was then, but it could be again..
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Interesting from carney on 12:22 - Sep 14 with 1978 viewsWestStanderLaLaLa

Interesting from carney on 22:05 - Sep 13 by jjblue84

More incorrect predictions from Carney? He never gives up does he...


It's not a prediction. Its one element of a stress test scenario to test if the banks can survive a major shock to the global economy.
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Interesting from carney on 12:48 - Sep 14 with 1931 viewsSwansea_Blue

Interesting from carney on 21:14 - Sep 13 by clive_baker

Don’t get me wrong I’m a remained but 30% fall in house prices? I’ll believe that when I see it.


Yep, he’s going to suffer from crying wolf (however well intentioned) before. I imagine most people aren’t going to believe him.

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Interesting from carney on 13:07 - Sep 14 with 1905 viewsclive_baker

Interesting from carney on 10:36 - Sep 14 by Cotty

There already has been if you look at the prices in Euros or dollars!


In what respect? The 5 year average GBP:EUR pre Brexit (2011 - 2016) was circa GBP 1 : EUR 1.25 and today it's at 1:1.12, which is 10% lower.

Even at GBP's strongest point vs. the EUR since the 2009 global recession of 1 : 1.4 that would represent 20%, and that was relatively short lived in 2015 and by no means a norm.

Either way, that's not the metric MC is referring to and his forecast is wildly unrealistic. I appreciate what he's trying to do in scaremongering those with the power to influence in order to protect Britain crashing out of the EU though. He rightly commands a lot of respect, I just think sound bites like that are neither helpful nor remotely realistic.

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Interesting from carney on 13:17 - Sep 14 with 1881 viewsBent_double

Interesting from carney on 10:33 - Sep 14 by Lord_Lucan

Carney is a very astute man but I disagree with him.

Quite frankly I am appalled at they way the government has handled Brexit talks, as a very small businessman with a tin pot company I am sure I could have done a better job.

In fact I don't actually understand why they are faffing about, I was / am a remainer but I lost. I have dealt with this. If we are out we have to be OUT and the only answer is a hard Brexit.

We should have immediately said "Ok, we are gone, if you want to trade let's talk". Unfortunately we are going to end up with this stupid Chequers deal at best, we are going to retain all the bad parts of the European Union and give up any good bits.

I don't think the whole thing could have been handled any worse.


I'm with you on this. I was a remainer, but if there was another referendum tomorrow I would probably vote leave, I am so peed-off with the attitude of people like Juncker and the ineptitude of the British government.

Just want to get it over and done with, so let's have a hard Brexit now and deal with the consequences as they appear.

I'm sure we'll cope.

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Interesting from carney on 13:55 - Sep 14 with 1820 viewsgiant_ullaa

Interesting from carney on 13:07 - Sep 14 by clive_baker

In what respect? The 5 year average GBP:EUR pre Brexit (2011 - 2016) was circa GBP 1 : EUR 1.25 and today it's at 1:1.12, which is 10% lower.

Even at GBP's strongest point vs. the EUR since the 2009 global recession of 1 : 1.4 that would represent 20%, and that was relatively short lived in 2015 and by no means a norm.

Either way, that's not the metric MC is referring to and his forecast is wildly unrealistic. I appreciate what he's trying to do in scaremongering those with the power to influence in order to protect Britain crashing out of the EU though. He rightly commands a lot of respect, I just think sound bites like that are neither helpful nor remotely realistic.


didn't house price dip by roughly that much in the early 90s? don't see why it couldn't happen again, especially as they're relatively so much higher now and all that debt's been based on low interest rates? Run on the pound, interest rate bumped up drastically to protect, perfect house price storm...

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry.
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Interesting from carney on 13:57 - Sep 14 with 1819 viewsbrazil1982

Interesting from carney on 21:36 - Sep 13 by J2BLUE

Brexit has dominated everything for over two years. It had divided the country and other serious issues have been pushed aside while the two factions battle over Brexit. Eventually there will probably be a compromise where, to quote Chico, instead of being half in we'll be half out.

The leave argument has been dismantled in several key areas and we're seemingly left with a gamble that things will carry on as normal. Not be better, but get back to the pre-referendum level. Seems a pointless exercise now. It seems the next leadership contest will mainly come down to Brexit. If we see BJ or Rees-Mogg etc become leader the country will be further divided. I have said for a while we'll end up having a second referendum at the last minute. I think they are laying it on thick now so May can 'backtrack' and offer a deal vs remain vote which remain will win comfortably.

Lets just get on with it and then we can properly focus on the NHS and other key issues.


Why would "remain" win comfortably?
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Interesting from carney on 14:12 - Sep 14 with 1801 viewsjaykay

Interesting from carney on 13:57 - Sep 14 by brazil1982

Why would "remain" win comfortably?


well most sane people only make the same mistake once
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Interesting from carney on 16:01 - Sep 14 with 1750 viewsclive_baker

Interesting from carney on 13:55 - Sep 14 by giant_ullaa

didn't house price dip by roughly that much in the early 90s? don't see why it couldn't happen again, especially as they're relatively so much higher now and all that debt's been based on low interest rates? Run on the pound, interest rate bumped up drastically to protect, perfect house price storm...


No, not even close. The average house price in Q1 of 1990 was £59.5k, bottoming out at £50.1k in 1993 before recovering back up to £63k in 1998. It's also worth noting that 1988 - 1990 saw a 33% price increase. So even at it's low in 1993 house prices were still 10% higher than 5 years prior.


There's not a cat in hells chance of a 35% drop in house prices. There's a significant lack of stock.

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Interesting from carney on 16:18 - Sep 14 with 1730 viewsBlueinBrum

I got my haircut next to Mark Carney once. He is a suave looking geezer up close.
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Interesting from carney on 16:30 - Sep 14 with 1704 viewsgiant_ullaa

Interesting from carney on 16:01 - Sep 14 by clive_baker

No, not even close. The average house price in Q1 of 1990 was £59.5k, bottoming out at £50.1k in 1993 before recovering back up to £63k in 1998. It's also worth noting that 1988 - 1990 saw a 33% price increase. So even at it's low in 1993 house prices were still 10% higher than 5 years prior.


There's not a cat in hells chance of a 35% drop in house prices. There's a significant lack of stock.


Fair dos I stand corrrrcted

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry.
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Interesting from carney on 18:14 - Sep 14 with 1650 viewsGromheort

Interesting from carney on 16:01 - Sep 14 by clive_baker

No, not even close. The average house price in Q1 of 1990 was £59.5k, bottoming out at £50.1k in 1993 before recovering back up to £63k in 1998. It's also worth noting that 1988 - 1990 saw a 33% price increase. So even at it's low in 1993 house prices were still 10% higher than 5 years prior.


There's not a cat in hells chance of a 35% drop in house prices. There's a significant lack of stock.


You're a tad too confident. Despite that limited stock, average prices fell by 0.5% in August. To get more significant change we'd just need a collapse in London prices (with the rest of the South East then following) and a ratcheting up of mortgage costs. That could be delivered by capital flight etc.

It may be a worst case scenario, but there is a relevant chance.
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Interesting from carney on 19:26 - Sep 14 with 1582 viewsFreddies_Ears

Interesting from carney on 18:14 - Sep 14 by Gromheort

You're a tad too confident. Despite that limited stock, average prices fell by 0.5% in August. To get more significant change we'd just need a collapse in London prices (with the rest of the South East then following) and a ratcheting up of mortgage costs. That could be delivered by capital flight etc.

It may be a worst case scenario, but there is a relevant chance.


Upper end of London market is in a big retreat, due to a fall in overseas buyers (despite the fall in £ making it relatively cheap in international terms). Clearly, the uncertain political outlook is a factor, maybe the lack of EU status on a British passport in future is also a factor.
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Interesting from carney on 19:32 - Sep 14 with 1573 viewsGromheort

Interesting from carney on 19:26 - Sep 14 by Freddies_Ears

Upper end of London market is in a big retreat, due to a fall in overseas buyers (despite the fall in £ making it relatively cheap in international terms). Clearly, the uncertain political outlook is a factor, maybe the lack of EU status on a British passport in future is also a factor.


Yep. That's not necessarily a bad thing mind you, given speculators are a housing bubble curse. The problem though is that we're all linked. London collapses and the southern counties fall like dominoes.

Fortunately I'm not going anywhere until the government steals my house to fund regular beatings in a poorly run nursing home. However, given the importance of the housing market for our economy, it does look a little dicey.
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