Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread
A pathway to safety 14:52 - Nov 4 with 4596 viewsGuthrum

If all the teams continue on the same recent form trajectory, then the table as the transfer window opens will look roughly something like this:



Ipswich will be (taking GD into account) nine points from safety. A difficult ask, but still not impossible.

However, if we can tighten up the defence (particularly free kicks/corners) and keep up an attacking style of play which forces the opposition to concede set pieces (with Downes continuing to deliver corners as well as he was doing yesterday) it ought to be possible to increase our points accrual by a significant amount, from the current average of around 0.7 per game to more like 1.25 (say: Reading a W, WBA h D, Bristol h W, Forest a L, Stoke a D, Wigan h W, Sheff U h L, QPR a D, Boro a L = 12 points). That would be enough to lift Town off the bottom of the table and keep us well in touch with 21st place.

Then if, in January, we can acquire a striker to score goals from open play as well, plus continuing to progress team cohesion and the hardening of younger and less experienced players, it ought to be possible to raise the rate yet again. An average of 1.33 points per game (win-draw-lose) would see us finish on something like 48-50 points, enough to escape the drop in eight out of the last ten seasons.
[Post edited 4 Nov 2018 15:15]

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

7
A pathway to safety on 15:14 - Nov 4 with 4487 viewsJ2BLUE

I don't think it's as dire as people are making out. Lambert is going to get us well drilled. We might lack quality to win games but we've only lost two out of eight at home. 1-2 key additions and suddenly Portman Road could be a fortress.

Three points at Reading would be huge.

Truly impaired.
Poll: Will you buying a Super Blues membership?

3
A pathway to safety on 16:41 - Nov 4 with 4317 viewshomer_123

A pathway to safety on 15:14 - Nov 4 by J2BLUE

I don't think it's as dire as people are making out. Lambert is going to get us well drilled. We might lack quality to win games but we've only lost two out of eight at home. 1-2 key additions and suddenly Portman Road could be a fortress.

Three points at Reading would be huge.


In some respects (and not surprising given Lambert has had less than a week), yesterdays match was very much Hurst'esq.

We played some decent football in the first half (more akin to the spells we had against Blackburn and Rotherham early doors) but without really threatening. Couple that with the rather worrying last 25 to 30 mins where they were reduced to 10 men, we reverted to long balls and they opened us up.

There is still a huge amount of football to be played and points to be had - so relegation is far from a foregone conclusion. But - as I posted earlier, for all the good work Lambert has done this week and will continue to do - if we don't start winning games, the confidence the lads showed yesterday won't last.

I have no doubt that they would have felt yesterday was a loss (it was certainly 2 points dropped).

As Guthers has said, between now and Jan - we have to stay with the those around the bottom of the league otherwise it will be a very difficult task to stay up.

It's not impossible but I do think it's a grave situation - arguably worse than when Mick took charge - as we are so lightweight in front of goal. Let's face it - had it not been for the pen yesterday I doubt we would have scored.

If we can build on yesterday and find some goals, then we can do it - and quite possibly quite comfortably. However, we were saying the same with Hurst and those spells in games - if we could only build on them. It didn't happen because confidence ebbed away as we were not picking up points - the same applies here.

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll: As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

2
A pathway to safety on 16:47 - Nov 4 with 4292 viewsBtreeBlueBlood

A pathway to safety on 16:41 - Nov 4 by homer_123

In some respects (and not surprising given Lambert has had less than a week), yesterdays match was very much Hurst'esq.

We played some decent football in the first half (more akin to the spells we had against Blackburn and Rotherham early doors) but without really threatening. Couple that with the rather worrying last 25 to 30 mins where they were reduced to 10 men, we reverted to long balls and they opened us up.

There is still a huge amount of football to be played and points to be had - so relegation is far from a foregone conclusion. But - as I posted earlier, for all the good work Lambert has done this week and will continue to do - if we don't start winning games, the confidence the lads showed yesterday won't last.

I have no doubt that they would have felt yesterday was a loss (it was certainly 2 points dropped).

As Guthers has said, between now and Jan - we have to stay with the those around the bottom of the league otherwise it will be a very difficult task to stay up.

It's not impossible but I do think it's a grave situation - arguably worse than when Mick took charge - as we are so lightweight in front of goal. Let's face it - had it not been for the pen yesterday I doubt we would have scored.

If we can build on yesterday and find some goals, then we can do it - and quite possibly quite comfortably. However, we were saying the same with Hurst and those spells in games - if we could only build on them. It didn't happen because confidence ebbed away as we were not picking up points - the same applies here.


With no loanees available unity hantavirus , we are in a bad position.
0
A pathway to safety on 16:55 - Nov 4 with 4266 viewsbackwaywhen

Don’t like the look of the top end ....8 points clear of 3rd !
0
A pathway to safety on 17:21 - Nov 4 with 4220 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 16:41 - Nov 4 by homer_123

In some respects (and not surprising given Lambert has had less than a week), yesterdays match was very much Hurst'esq.

We played some decent football in the first half (more akin to the spells we had against Blackburn and Rotherham early doors) but without really threatening. Couple that with the rather worrying last 25 to 30 mins where they were reduced to 10 men, we reverted to long balls and they opened us up.

There is still a huge amount of football to be played and points to be had - so relegation is far from a foregone conclusion. But - as I posted earlier, for all the good work Lambert has done this week and will continue to do - if we don't start winning games, the confidence the lads showed yesterday won't last.

I have no doubt that they would have felt yesterday was a loss (it was certainly 2 points dropped).

As Guthers has said, between now and Jan - we have to stay with the those around the bottom of the league otherwise it will be a very difficult task to stay up.

It's not impossible but I do think it's a grave situation - arguably worse than when Mick took charge - as we are so lightweight in front of goal. Let's face it - had it not been for the pen yesterday I doubt we would have scored.

If we can build on yesterday and find some goals, then we can do it - and quite possibly quite comfortably. However, we were saying the same with Hurst and those spells in games - if we could only build on them. It didn't happen because confidence ebbed away as we were not picking up points - the same applies here.


I think it also happened because Hurst did not build on any of the successes. There was no incremental growth, it was all too drastic.

Sportspeople like routine, rhythm. It allows them to do the basic things instinctually, adding their talent on top as a bonus, rather than needing to work for understanding of every element. You can ping those passes and move with confidence if you know who's there, where they're likely to be and what they'll do afterwards - also that the opposition are unlikely to come straight back through your position with the ball.

Drill builds confidence. So does consistent selection and well-explained tactical plans.

Even under Hurst, our problem was not losing matches (on the day he was sacked, three other teams had lost seven, the same as us, Reading were on 8 and Hull on 9), but drawing too many of them. Cutting out silly defeats should not be that hard, but we don't need to be turning many draws into wins to make significant progress (in four of our eight League draws this season, we have taken the lead).

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

2
A pathway to safety on 17:24 - Nov 4 with 4199 viewsTrequartista

Bolton are going to collect 5 points in their next 9 games? Bit hopeful.

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

0
A pathway to safety on 17:30 - Nov 4 with 4182 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 16:47 - Nov 4 by BtreeBlueBlood

With no loanees available unity hantavirus , we are in a bad position.


If we can get set-pieces right (corners, free kicks, the occasional penalty) and keep getting them by fast, probing attacks on the deck, then it's a lot less necessary to have forwards who can score from open play. They allow us to pack the opposition area, giving more heads and feet (plus knees, backsides, etc.) to put ball in net. Dead-ball goals all count.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

1
A pathway to safety on 17:31 - Nov 4 with 4179 viewshomer_123

A pathway to safety on 17:21 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

I think it also happened because Hurst did not build on any of the successes. There was no incremental growth, it was all too drastic.

Sportspeople like routine, rhythm. It allows them to do the basic things instinctually, adding their talent on top as a bonus, rather than needing to work for understanding of every element. You can ping those passes and move with confidence if you know who's there, where they're likely to be and what they'll do afterwards - also that the opposition are unlikely to come straight back through your position with the ball.

Drill builds confidence. So does consistent selection and well-explained tactical plans.

Even under Hurst, our problem was not losing matches (on the day he was sacked, three other teams had lost seven, the same as us, Reading were on 8 and Hull on 9), but drawing too many of them. Cutting out silly defeats should not be that hard, but we don't need to be turning many draws into wins to make significant progress (in four of our eight League draws this season, we have taken the lead).


Certainly on yesterdays showing, Lambert had them going back to basics.

It was well organised, people knew where they were playing and what they needed to do - no doubt at all. I posted that effect this morning. And, as you say, those simple things will allow us to build - again, I'd absolutely agree that with the basics in place in then allows some freedom to add the talent on top.

I'm certainly not saying the position we are in is impossible - we saw evidence yesterday that there is most definitely hope.

We also saw, however, a fragility (not surprising) and a naivety when they were down to 10 men. It's early doors and Lambert has only had less than a week.

My issue is that, to really build confidence, we need wins and we are still not looking likely to score. Pen aside yesterday, did we test their keeper? I'm taking the game in isolation and the main positive from yesterday was Roberts - but we look lightweight up front. It's hard, at the moment, to see where goals are coming from.

Lambert can get us to tighten up but we have to be able to turn possession and good play into goals and I'm not convinced we have the quality. I think SWGF said earlier - what on earth was Hurst thinking? How can that front line compete at this level?

Your theory is sound, we should be able to run those draws into wins, but the extra zip and guile shown by the lads could soon peter out without a win - yesterday was great opportunity and another missed. Draws at home aren't enough are they?

Reading away, WBA and Brizzle at home.

I can see - maybe 2 points from those three? Draw at Reading and one draw from the other two? Maybe I'm being too pessimistic?

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll: As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

2
Login to get fewer ads

A pathway to safety on 17:31 - Nov 4 with 4177 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 17:24 - Nov 4 by Trequartista

Bolton are going to collect 5 points in their next 9 games? Bit hopeful.


That's how many they got in their last nine.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

1
A pathway to safety on 17:32 - Nov 4 with 4173 viewsNthsuffolkblue

A pathway to safety on 16:55 - Nov 4 by backwaywhen

Don’t like the look of the top end ....8 points clear of 3rd !


Form changes and this table looks very different depending on whether you are basing form on the past 5 games, the past 10 or the past 16. One thing is sure, that table will not be the same as the real one at the beginning of January (I know that wasn't Guthrum's point).

Ultimately we need to worry about finding our way to some form and 50ish points. I am hopeful Norwich will have found their way to more ordinary form by then too. The top half of the table is so tight. In fact so is the bottom half aside from that gap to us! To think, a goal against Rotherham, beating Bolton or Birmingham or winning yesterday and that gap would be much smaller. Hey ho, it is what it is and Lambert has nearly 2/3 of the season to get us out of it.

Poll: Is Jeremy Clarkson misogynistic, racist or plain nasty?
Blog: [Blog] Ghostbusters

0
A pathway to safety on 17:32 - Nov 4 with 4164 viewshomer_123

A pathway to safety on 17:30 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

If we can get set-pieces right (corners, free kicks, the occasional penalty) and keep getting them by fast, probing attacks on the deck, then it's a lot less necessary to have forwards who can score from open play. They allow us to pack the opposition area, giving more heads and feet (plus knees, backsides, etc.) to put ball in net. Dead-ball goals all count.


Agreed but we haven't looked threatening from set-pieces for about 2 seasons.

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll: As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

0
A pathway to safety on 17:33 - Nov 4 with 4159 viewsTrequartista

A pathway to safety on 17:31 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

That's how many they got in their last nine.


Due a win then :-)

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

1
A pathway to safety on 17:40 - Nov 4 with 4135 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 17:31 - Nov 4 by homer_123

Certainly on yesterdays showing, Lambert had them going back to basics.

It was well organised, people knew where they were playing and what they needed to do - no doubt at all. I posted that effect this morning. And, as you say, those simple things will allow us to build - again, I'd absolutely agree that with the basics in place in then allows some freedom to add the talent on top.

I'm certainly not saying the position we are in is impossible - we saw evidence yesterday that there is most definitely hope.

We also saw, however, a fragility (not surprising) and a naivety when they were down to 10 men. It's early doors and Lambert has only had less than a week.

My issue is that, to really build confidence, we need wins and we are still not looking likely to score. Pen aside yesterday, did we test their keeper? I'm taking the game in isolation and the main positive from yesterday was Roberts - but we look lightweight up front. It's hard, at the moment, to see where goals are coming from.

Lambert can get us to tighten up but we have to be able to turn possession and good play into goals and I'm not convinced we have the quality. I think SWGF said earlier - what on earth was Hurst thinking? How can that front line compete at this level?

Your theory is sound, we should be able to run those draws into wins, but the extra zip and guile shown by the lads could soon peter out without a win - yesterday was great opportunity and another missed. Draws at home aren't enough are they?

Reading away, WBA and Brizzle at home.

I can see - maybe 2 points from those three? Draw at Reading and one draw from the other two? Maybe I'm being too pessimistic?


Reading are fragile at home, as many losses as wins in the last six. I reckon, in the full force of our revival, we can do them.

West Brom are very iffy indeed on the road, but I'm putting that down as a draw rather than erring on the side of wild optimism.

Bristol's away form is, again, not all that strong. We certainly could beat them at PR.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

0
A pathway to safety on 17:42 - Nov 4 with 4119 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 17:32 - Nov 4 by homer_123

Agreed but we haven't looked threatening from set-pieces for about 2 seasons.


I was only listening on the radio, but it sounded like Downes was a revelation.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

0
A pathway to safety on 17:47 - Nov 4 with 4088 viewsNthsuffolkblue

A pathway to safety on 17:42 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

I was only listening on the radio, but it sounded like Downes was a revelation.


and a big part of being threatening from set pieces is about organisation (as well as delivery and variety). MM used Waghorn's skilful delivery well. Lambert will organise us better than Hurst did. We also need to defend them a lot better than we have done under Hurst.

Poll: Is Jeremy Clarkson misogynistic, racist or plain nasty?
Blog: [Blog] Ghostbusters

0
A pathway to safety on 17:50 - Nov 4 with 4076 viewshomer_123

A pathway to safety on 17:42 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

I was only listening on the radio, but it sounded like Downes was a revelation.


He took better set pieces that Freddie did!

His delivery was 'ok' but we never really threatened at any set pieces (bar one header off target from Pennington)

He sort of 'floats' them in - they are certainly not drilled in. Biggest issue (and not Downes) was that we never tested their sub keeper once from a set piece - very poor at that point.

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll: As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

0
A pathway to safety on 19:51 - Nov 4 with 3890 viewsHennikerBlu

We desperately need more height and aerial threat; not only in defence but in attack for set pieces. Agree Downes delivery was much better and for me he had a good game; and is perhaps the one young player which is making the step up at this level (EDIT: I am sure more will).

Sears had more of an impact coming in from the flank, I know this has been debated, but I thought he had one of his best games overall, at times it seemed more like a 4-4-2. Though Edwards seemed less of an attacking threat he did his defensive duties well.

I tend to agree with most of what Chico said, more an example of a better Hurst performance and good to see some fight from some of the boys. I would like to see us use more of the tactics I saw from PNE, the way they delayed every set piece opportunity until they were 100% set, we lack that leadership in the side (it needs to come from more than one player) to delay things and make sure everyone is ready. At the moment we tend to rush things, better yesterday, but still work to do.

Roberts, battled well and showed some feistiness, which we have not seen much of from any of our forwards since the leavers. We clearly need a focal point. I would expect PL would have been aware of this long before he took the job and 'will' have some targets. A forward that can hold it up, allowing numbers to join, will make a huge difference to the shape of the side in attack.

Still huge question marks, we did little to test their makeshift keeper with shots (bar one excellent effort), our subs had little impact and perhaps Jackson needed 20mins to get into the game. We beat Rotherham, hold on against Brum and beat two ten man teams and we would not be having these concerns. Unfortunately, we did not, so there is little fear when it comes to playing Town. It should also be born in mind that we have been unable to beat sides in the lower table mix, which does not bode well.

I do think we will need a minimum of three good Championship players in Jan to be able to get out of this. I 100% feel PL is right for us, I always believed that the way the club is set up we need a manager that is established at this level and has good contacts in the game, unfortunately I could not get the PH appointment. I do think PL will do all that he can and it was good to see him active in the bunker, I mean dugout ;)
[Post edited 4 Nov 2018 19:56]
0
A pathway to safety on 21:06 - Nov 4 with 3734 viewsHarryfromBath

I have been estimating that we would be nine-to-ten points adrift at the turn of the season, and this league table confirms my hunch. It's a grave situation, as Homer said above, and as things stand I simply can't see us getting out of this unless we get quite a series of fortunate breaks.

Henners alluded above to our lack of aerial threat, and the fact that we couldn't hurt a defence as porous as Preston's, with an outfield goalkeeper thrown in, highlights how blunt our attacking options currently look. I get angrier with Hurst and Evans for creating this mess the more I think about it.

Mrs HfromB keeps pointing out that Lambert has only been here for a week and she is inevitably right on football matters. Let's see what he can come up with in the coming weeks. You can see that he is desperately trying to inject some positive energy into the squad. As supporters, this is absolutely what we have to do as well given the lack of reinforcements until January.

As for Evans, I believe that he will rightly feel the wrath of supporters for his part in the summer's destruction of the squad if we do drop. He has the January window to put this right and he has no margin - whatsoever - for error.

That's a fair pile of assumptions you've jumped to there.....
Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win The Championship Play-offs?
Blog: How Mick McCarthy Accelerated His Own Departure

0
A pathway to safety on 21:22 - Nov 4 with 3679 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 21:06 - Nov 4 by HarryfromBath

I have been estimating that we would be nine-to-ten points adrift at the turn of the season, and this league table confirms my hunch. It's a grave situation, as Homer said above, and as things stand I simply can't see us getting out of this unless we get quite a series of fortunate breaks.

Henners alluded above to our lack of aerial threat, and the fact that we couldn't hurt a defence as porous as Preston's, with an outfield goalkeeper thrown in, highlights how blunt our attacking options currently look. I get angrier with Hurst and Evans for creating this mess the more I think about it.

Mrs HfromB keeps pointing out that Lambert has only been here for a week and she is inevitably right on football matters. Let's see what he can come up with in the coming weeks. You can see that he is desperately trying to inject some positive energy into the squad. As supporters, this is absolutely what we have to do as well given the lack of reinforcements until January.

As for Evans, I believe that he will rightly feel the wrath of supporters for his part in the summer's destruction of the squad if we do drop. He has the January window to put this right and he has no margin - whatsoever - for error.


Altho by way of an aerial threat from set pieces, we have the perfectly capable Chambers, Pennington and - as demonstrated at Swansea - Chalobah. If we can get very, very good at scoring from corners and free kicks, that may be enough to tide us over until January.

I'm also waiting for Knudsen to hit the target and score one of those goals where the 'keeper ends up sat in the stands, clutching the ball, still wrapped in the remnants of his own net.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

2
A pathway to safety on 21:27 - Nov 4 with 3657 viewsGuthrum

A pathway to safety on 21:22 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

Altho by way of an aerial threat from set pieces, we have the perfectly capable Chambers, Pennington and - as demonstrated at Swansea - Chalobah. If we can get very, very good at scoring from corners and free kicks, that may be enough to tide us over until January.

I'm also waiting for Knudsen to hit the target and score one of those goals where the 'keeper ends up sat in the stands, clutching the ball, still wrapped in the remnants of his own net.


Or we can develop falling over the 'keeper into a Holt-esque fine art.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

1
A pathway to safety on 21:39 - Nov 4 with 3625 viewsHarryfromBath

A pathway to safety on 21:27 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

Or we can develop falling over the 'keeper into a Holt-esque fine art.


Well, Lambert did manage Holt up the road, so you never know. As for your Knudsen reverie, he did hammer in a fair few back in Denmark before pitching up over here so a bit of marauding may not go amiss.

That's a fair pile of assumptions you've jumped to there.....
Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win The Championship Play-offs?
Blog: How Mick McCarthy Accelerated His Own Departure

1
A pathway to safety on 09:01 - Nov 5 with 3308 viewsJimmyJazz

A pathway to safety on 17:31 - Nov 4 by Guthrum

That's how many they got in their last nine.


And therein is the problem with your table.

Poll: If we could perm sign just one, which would it be?
Blog: Top Championship Teams?

0
A pathway to safety on 09:50 - Nov 5 with 3225 viewsWallingford_Boy

Reading are playing some good stuff at the moment, can't see us getting anything on Saturday.

RIP Sir Bobby

0
About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2024