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Gamblers of the board 17:19 - Nov 26 with 2425 viewsSpruceMoose

Which Brexit option is your money on?

[Post edited 26 Nov 2018 18:00]

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Gamblers of the board on 17:21 - Nov 26 with 2034 viewsGlasgowBlue

I've seen you comment on several occasions that this is a bad deal, and I don't disagree. But I've never seen you actually articulate what you believe is bad about it.

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Gamblers of the board on 17:26 - Nov 26 with 2011 viewsDanTheMan

Gamblers of the board on 17:21 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

I've seen you comment on several occasions that this is a bad deal, and I don't disagree. But I've never seen you actually articulate what you believe is bad about it.


I think my main issue with it is mainly that it's a deal to later to a deal for what everyone was told was going to be a super easy deal. Hell they were going to be begging us for a deal because German cars. And yeah that was only a few people but that's all it takes.

However just to give us a longer time to negotiate, there's nothing that bad there. It's about what you would have expected, we were never going to get everything and if anyone thought we were going to they were living in a fantasy world.

I don't think it'll get through Parliament though and I imagine nobody will agree on anything and we'll end up just crashing out.

Did find it interesting that even Farage of all people was suddenly not opposed to a second referendum.

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Gamblers of the board on 17:34 - Nov 26 with 1994 viewsSpruceMoose

Gamblers of the board on 17:21 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

I've seen you comment on several occasions that this is a bad deal, and I don't disagree. But I've never seen you actually articulate what you believe is bad about it.


In short, it satisfies nobody. It gives neither side anything like what they wanted and offers no clear vision of what Brexit is, what it means, or how it will operate. Only dissatisfaction and uncertainty awaits.

It is vague. It's basically just a wish list without guarantees or timescales. Leaving aside all the rest of the vagueness for now, one of my main concerns is that if nothing can be negotiated that isn't in line with the EU's four guiding principles, or that threatens the UK sovereignty then there is an inherent clash and an impasse in the Northern Ireland situation that I can't see can be overcome.

Even if you put this agreement to a referendum, once again nobody would really know what they were voting for or against.

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Gamblers of the board on 17:40 - Nov 26 with 1978 viewskizaitfc

Theresa May will be forced to renegotiate and take the Norway option, this will narrowly get through the commons, however so many angry Tories will then generate a leadership election.

The Tories crumble and we see a general election which will result in a Labour/SNP coalition which will lead to the softest brexit available.

Stick a fiver on!

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Gamblers of the board on 17:45 - Nov 26 with 1978 viewsBlueBadger

Gamblers of the board on 17:40 - Nov 26 by kizaitfc

Theresa May will be forced to renegotiate and take the Norway option, this will narrowly get through the commons, however so many angry Tories will then generate a leadership election.

The Tories crumble and we see a general election which will result in a Labour/SNP coalition which will lead to the softest brexit available.

Stick a fiver on!


Trouble is, Labour are themselves hopelessly divided with Labour MP's mainly favouring remaining or soft exits but the leadership(and also Jeremy Corbyn) preferringa hard exit as apparently it'll let them renationalise the utilities, rail, amongst other things(which is of course a lie, as most EU countires have nationlised utilities and rails services to varying degrees).

All we would get that's different in this scenario is that the inept headmistress would be being replaced by an inept supply geography teacher.
[Post edited 26 Nov 2018 17:46]

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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Gamblers of the board on 18:12 - Nov 26 with 1929 viewsthecheek

Gamblers of the board on 17:45 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger

Trouble is, Labour are themselves hopelessly divided with Labour MP's mainly favouring remaining or soft exits but the leadership(and also Jeremy Corbyn) preferringa hard exit as apparently it'll let them renationalise the utilities, rail, amongst other things(which is of course a lie, as most EU countires have nationlised utilities and rails services to varying degrees).

All we would get that's different in this scenario is that the inept headmistress would be being replaced by an inept supply geography teacher.
[Post edited 26 Nov 2018 17:46]


Betfair have a market on which will happen first -

Theresa May to leave office of PM
or
The UK to leave the EU

The former was great value at a shade under even money over the weekend although price has collapsed today

Still probably buying money though....
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Gamblers of the board on 18:13 - Nov 26 with 1917 viewsSE1blue

Not Brexit, but I've got a tenner on for snow on Christmas Day at 4/1.

So get your sun loungers out...

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Gamblers of the board on 18:34 - Nov 26 with 1885 viewsWeekender

Gamblers of the board on 17:34 - Nov 26 by SpruceMoose

In short, it satisfies nobody. It gives neither side anything like what they wanted and offers no clear vision of what Brexit is, what it means, or how it will operate. Only dissatisfaction and uncertainty awaits.

It is vague. It's basically just a wish list without guarantees or timescales. Leaving aside all the rest of the vagueness for now, one of my main concerns is that if nothing can be negotiated that isn't in line with the EU's four guiding principles, or that threatens the UK sovereignty then there is an inherent clash and an impasse in the Northern Ireland situation that I can't see can be overcome.

Even if you put this agreement to a referendum, once again nobody would really know what they were voting for or against.


Are you not confusing the exit desk with the statement for future trade negotiations?

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Gamblers of the board on 18:42 - Nov 26 with 1874 viewskizaitfc

Gamblers of the board on 17:45 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger

Trouble is, Labour are themselves hopelessly divided with Labour MP's mainly favouring remaining or soft exits but the leadership(and also Jeremy Corbyn) preferringa hard exit as apparently it'll let them renationalise the utilities, rail, amongst other things(which is of course a lie, as most EU countires have nationlised utilities and rails services to varying degrees).

All we would get that's different in this scenario is that the inept headmistress would be being replaced by an inept supply geography teacher.
[Post edited 26 Nov 2018 17:46]


The question didnt ask what id prefer or what the best option, but what i thought would happen.

Labour will not win a majority in any election therefore JC will never get his true plans through parliament. A coalition with SNP or LD could lead to a 2nd referendum.

I see nothing other than a soft brexit now, which to me is pointless as it doesnt satisfy the people that voted leave

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Gamblers of the board on 18:45 - Nov 26 with 1862 viewsBlueBadger

Gamblers of the board on 18:42 - Nov 26 by kizaitfc

The question didnt ask what id prefer or what the best option, but what i thought would happen.

Labour will not win a majority in any election therefore JC will never get his true plans through parliament. A coalition with SNP or LD could lead to a 2nd referendum.

I see nothing other than a soft brexit now, which to me is pointless as it doesnt satisfy the people that voted leave


They won, they should get over it.

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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Gamblers of the board on 18:57 - Nov 26 with 1840 viewsJ2BLUE

I think: Deal gets voted down. May does a 180 and announces a people's vote between hard Brexit and remaining

I want: Deal gets voted down, May is ousted and replaced. Article 50 extended by six months. Renegotiated deal. Then either accept the deal or have a referendum on the deal versus remaining.

I realise the second option may not be that realistic and i'm also not opposed to a referendum on hard Brexit versus remaining. I want May gone though. I think she's been an awful PM.

Truly impaired.
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Gamblers of the board on 19:02 - Nov 26 with 1829 viewsSpruceMoose

Gamblers of the board on 17:34 - Nov 26 by SpruceMoose

In short, it satisfies nobody. It gives neither side anything like what they wanted and offers no clear vision of what Brexit is, what it means, or how it will operate. Only dissatisfaction and uncertainty awaits.

It is vague. It's basically just a wish list without guarantees or timescales. Leaving aside all the rest of the vagueness for now, one of my main concerns is that if nothing can be negotiated that isn't in line with the EU's four guiding principles, or that threatens the UK sovereignty then there is an inherent clash and an impasse in the Northern Ireland situation that I can't see can be overcome.

Even if you put this agreement to a referendum, once again nobody would really know what they were voting for or against.


I wonder why Pickles downvoted this seeing as I am advocating for his wishes to be respected just as much as my own. Playing the man not the ball clearly.
[Post edited 26 Nov 2018 19:03]

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Gamblers of the board on 19:04 - Nov 26 with 1819 viewsGlasgowBlue

Gamblers of the board on 18:57 - Nov 26 by J2BLUE

I think: Deal gets voted down. May does a 180 and announces a people's vote between hard Brexit and remaining

I want: Deal gets voted down, May is ousted and replaced. Article 50 extended by six months. Renegotiated deal. Then either accept the deal or have a referendum on the deal versus remaining.

I realise the second option may not be that realistic and i'm also not opposed to a referendum on hard Brexit versus remaining. I want May gone though. I think she's been an awful PM.


These are the five options according to the Speccie (paywall so I have copied the options)

1. MPs back May’s deal on first vote
At present, this seems an unlikely option. However, if No.10’s PR offensive pays off then a combination of Labour rebels and Tory Brexiteers backing down and voting for the deal would get May over the line. The EU withdrawal agreement would be passed and attention would soon turn to getting through all the accompanying legislation. Given that the DUP have made clear they have no plans to back the deal and would reconsider the confidence and supply agreement if it is passed, May’s legislative headache shows no sign of letting up even in No.10’s best case scenario.

2. May’s deal goes to a second Commons vote — market pressure wins
On first attempt, Theresa May’s Brexit deal does pass through the Commons — falling short by around 20 votes. Given that the numbers are fairly small, the Prime Minister vows to bring it back one more time for a second vote. At the EU Council meeting the day after the first vote, May asked for ‘clarifications’ on a number of issues in the hope this will either be enough to convince wavering MPs or at least give these MPs cover to vote for it. A drop in the pound or market response to the first vote failing could be enough to get May over the line. This is being talked up as the TARP plan in government — in a nod to the market panic which helped the US government push its 2008 bank bailout through Congress.

3. Deal tanks — no deal Brexit
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted down by MPs by a majority of over 50. At this point, the Prime Minister is unable to reasonably argue that her Brexit plan has a hope of passing on a second or third attempt. Having staked so much on this Brexit plan, Theresa May is unable to advocate a second option. No deal planning is activated but MPs have lost faith in her ability to lead. A no confidence vote is triggered by Tory MPs and a leadership contest follows. Meanwhile, the Brexit clock ticks and ‘no deal’ looks increasingly likely. There are, however, efforts by cross-party MPs to suspend Article 50 or opt for a softer Brexit in order to avoid WTO term exit. This is also the point when Labour could try and bring about an early election but that relies on Tory MPs voting for it which remains unlikely given that the issue is cross party and Tories cannot agree amongst themselves.

4. EEA membership — a softer Brexit plan
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted down and there is no consensus on an alternative plan. A number of cabinet ministers advocate for a stay in the EEA — the Norway model — as a safe landing place for the time-being. This soft Brexit would likely have support of Labour MPs and potentially the DUP so long as Northern Ireland is treated the same as the rest of the UK. In order to advocate this option, someone other than Theresa May would most likely need to be in place — given that it would involve admitting the negotiations had gone wrong and supporting the continuation of freedom of movement at least in the short term.

5. Second referendum
Theresa May’s deal fails to pass the first time round — and potentially even the second. A chunk of cross-party MPs with ties to the People’s Vote campaign approach No 10 with a proposition: ‘We’ll vote for this if you adopt our amendment calling for a vote on the final deal’. Desperate for a way to break the Brexit deadlock, May adds an amendment saying that she will take her deal to a national vote — the choice being her deal or Remain.

IMO we will get option 4 with Gove, Amber Rudd and others teaming up with centreist Labour MP's to get a Norway style deal.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:06 - Nov 26 with 1811 viewsGlasgowBlue

Gamblers of the board on 17:34 - Nov 26 by SpruceMoose

In short, it satisfies nobody. It gives neither side anything like what they wanted and offers no clear vision of what Brexit is, what it means, or how it will operate. Only dissatisfaction and uncertainty awaits.

It is vague. It's basically just a wish list without guarantees or timescales. Leaving aside all the rest of the vagueness for now, one of my main concerns is that if nothing can be negotiated that isn't in line with the EU's four guiding principles, or that threatens the UK sovereignty then there is an inherent clash and an impasse in the Northern Ireland situation that I can't see can be overcome.

Even if you put this agreement to a referendum, once again nobody would really know what they were voting for or against.


That's more a criticism of the future deal rather than the exit deal.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:08 - Nov 26 with 1804 viewsbluelagos

Gamblers of the board on 17:21 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

I've seen you comment on several occasions that this is a bad deal, and I don't disagree. But I've never seen you actually articulate what you believe is bad about it.


Off the top of my head...

1. Currently we have the right to live and work or retire in any of the EU countries. We will be losing that right.

2. Our employers can currently employ anyone from the EU. Future arrangements will be determined by politicians.

3. The deal is blind, we (and business) have no idea what the future will be, as there is nothing binding about our future relationship.

4. As any future deal must be signed off by all 27 countries, we may be held to ransom e.g. Spain over Gibraltar.

5. If we can't do a deal, we appear to be stuck in limbo in a customs union without the ability to negotiate with 3rd countries.

6. We will have no say on EU rules (from March) yet we will be subject to them for an undetmined time.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:08 - Nov 26 with 1801 viewsSpruceMoose

Gamblers of the board on 19:06 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

That's more a criticism of the future deal rather than the exit deal.


What are your reasons for not disagreeing that it is a bad deal?

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Gamblers of the board on 19:24 - Nov 26 with 1753 viewsGlasgowBlue

Gamblers of the board on 19:08 - Nov 26 by SpruceMoose

What are your reasons for not disagreeing that it is a bad deal?


A backstop that we can't unilaterally end. £39billion for no guarantees. Being subject to EU laws with no part in the decision making. Membership of the customs union indefinitely so we can't sign trade deals outwith the EU.

It's a deal that is meant to compromise for both remainers and leavers but instead does the opposite.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:26 - Nov 26 with 1742 viewsGlasgowBlue

Gamblers of the board on 19:08 - Nov 26 by bluelagos

Off the top of my head...

1. Currently we have the right to live and work or retire in any of the EU countries. We will be losing that right.

2. Our employers can currently employ anyone from the EU. Future arrangements will be determined by politicians.

3. The deal is blind, we (and business) have no idea what the future will be, as there is nothing binding about our future relationship.

4. As any future deal must be signed off by all 27 countries, we may be held to ransom e.g. Spain over Gibraltar.

5. If we can't do a deal, we appear to be stuck in limbo in a customs union without the ability to negotiate with 3rd countries.

6. We will have no say on EU rules (from March) yet we will be subject to them for an undetmined time.


Well your first two are reliant upon us being in the single market. If we sign up to the single market then we may as well not leave the EU.

But that does highlight a big issue. No deal will satisfy a remainer.

I don't mean that as an insult but remainers would rather we didn't leave.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:29 - Nov 26 with 1739 viewsSpruceMoose

Gamblers of the board on 19:26 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

Well your first two are reliant upon us being in the single market. If we sign up to the single market then we may as well not leave the EU.

But that does highlight a big issue. No deal will satisfy a remainer.

I don't mean that as an insult but remainers would rather we didn't leave.


I think that's fair. I'll gladly admit that compared to being a fully integrated member of the EU no deal will ever satisfy me.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:41 - Nov 26 with 1710 viewsJ2BLUE

Gamblers of the board on 19:29 - Nov 26 by SpruceMoose

I think that's fair. I'll gladly admit that compared to being a fully integrated member of the EU no deal will ever satisfy me.


Yea but you're American now, Cobbler told us so.

Truly impaired.
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Gamblers of the board on 19:43 - Nov 26 with 1705 viewsSpruceMoose

Gamblers of the board on 19:41 - Nov 26 by J2BLUE

Yea but you're American now, Cobbler told us so.


Soon enough I'll be both.

The citizen of two insane countries tearing themselves apart at the seams for...something or other.

Lucky me.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:45 - Nov 26 with 1702 viewsbluelagos

Gamblers of the board on 19:26 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

Well your first two are reliant upon us being in the single market. If we sign up to the single market then we may as well not leave the EU.

But that does highlight a big issue. No deal will satisfy a remainer.

I don't mean that as an insult but remainers would rather we didn't leave.


For me, a sensible compromise would be single market membership with freedom of movement (with a job offer)...

Not perfect, but satisfies remainers, business and limits European migration to those employed (for those worried about migration)

But yeah, not as good as we have now imho.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:48 - Nov 26 with 1693 viewsGlasgowBlue

Gamblers of the board on 19:45 - Nov 26 by bluelagos

For me, a sensible compromise would be single market membership with freedom of movement (with a job offer)...

Not perfect, but satisfies remainers, business and limits European migration to those employed (for those worried about migration)

But yeah, not as good as we have now imho.


Blair was proposing freedom of movement only with a job offer but that would mean the whole of the EU taking it up. The other 27 would not countenance a different type of FOM for one country.

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Gamblers of the board on 19:49 - Nov 26 with 1690 viewsJ2BLUE

Gamblers of the board on 19:45 - Nov 26 by bluelagos

For me, a sensible compromise would be single market membership with freedom of movement (with a job offer)...

Not perfect, but satisfies remainers, business and limits European migration to those employed (for those worried about migration)

But yeah, not as good as we have now imho.


That would be a very good solution. I expect the narrative would shift to 'they are stealing our jobs' though.


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Gamblers of the board on 19:59 - Nov 26 with 1666 viewsbluelagos

Gamblers of the board on 19:48 - Nov 26 by GlasgowBlue

Blair was proposing freedom of movement only with a job offer but that would mean the whole of the EU taking it up. The other 27 would not countenance a different type of FOM for one country.


Accept it wouldn't be an 'off the shelf' answer and would need some movement from the EU.

Shame if Blair is going to be the face of remain / New referendum given his toxicity. I'd prefer John Major in that role.

Anyhow, have said before, unless the polls read 2:1 for a referendum and/or remain, I don't see how you can have one tbh.

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