| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. 10:48 - Dec 5 with 10184 views | JammyDodgerrr |
As many have already stated, we would lose so much income, but what is so damning is the tweet below.
He has posted lots else - but importantly, we are already making a loss, but we would lose about £6.3M in income from TV, and TV revenue currently makes about 47% of our income. We simply would be in a complete hole if we dropped out of this league. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 10:56 - Dec 5 with 6764 views | gtsb |
We had better start planning ahead then because we are gone. |  | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:01 - Dec 5 with 6753 views | clive_baker |
Sure would. Relegation from the Prem allows for a bit of adjustment through the parachute payments, but we really would be up the creek if we dropped to L1. Essentially, during the 2017/2018 season our average wage bill for football staff was c. £350,000 a week. That would need to be £230,000 a week in L1 to offset the drop in broadcasting revenue. How do you go about losing £100,000 a week off the wage bill? I think we're probably part of the way there, given the departure of some high earners in the summer. Some players will have clauses which might help a little, then I would expect to see the likes of Bart, Knudsen, Chambers, Skuse, Ward, Adeyemi and Huws to leave if they're fit enough to attract any club to come in for them. Any fees received would make up the rest of the deficit plus offset any decline in ticket revenues which we will inevitably see in L1. And that's to still trade at a £6m loss where we are now. It's not impossible, but it's challenging and relies on teams coming in for those higher earners that are still in contract.
The only silver cloud I can see is that it would give an opportunity to the likes of Gerken, Kenlock, Woolfenden, Emmanuel, Bishop, Downes, Dozzell, Nydam, Lankaster, Morris etc and I have to say, that's a relatively exciting prospect to me, under the right manager (Lambert). [Post edited 5 Dec 2018 11:03]
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:08 - Dec 5 with 6726 views | Swansea_Blue |
If anyone's brave enough, just take a look at Swiss Ramble's site. I think there was a feature on Millwall not that long ago looking at the difference between tis league and L1. I can't remember a lot off the top of my head, but average income in the leagues was about 1/4 of the championship, wages the same, attendances well down (8,000 or so averages).
It'll need a reboot. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:10 - Dec 5 with 6708 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:01 - Dec 5 by clive_baker |
Sure would. Relegation from the Prem allows for a bit of adjustment through the parachute payments, but we really would be up the creek if we dropped to L1. Essentially, during the 2017/2018 season our average wage bill for football staff was c. £350,000 a week. That would need to be £230,000 a week in L1 to offset the drop in broadcasting revenue. How do you go about losing £100,000 a week off the wage bill? I think we're probably part of the way there, given the departure of some high earners in the summer. Some players will have clauses which might help a little, then I would expect to see the likes of Bart, Knudsen, Chambers, Skuse, Ward, Adeyemi and Huws to leave if they're fit enough to attract any club to come in for them. Any fees received would make up the rest of the deficit plus offset any decline in ticket revenues which we will inevitably see in L1. And that's to still trade at a £6m loss where we are now. It's not impossible, but it's challenging and relies on teams coming in for those higher earners that are still in contract.
The only silver cloud I can see is that it would give an opportunity to the likes of Gerken, Kenlock, Woolfenden, Emmanuel, Bishop, Downes, Dozzell, Nydam, Lankaster, Morris etc and I have to say, that's a relatively exciting prospect to me, under the right manager (Lambert). [Post edited 5 Dec 2018 11:03]
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Essentially this. We would need to move on the high earners and replace them with some decent experienced league one players who could compliment the exciting young players we already have.
It would be very challenging but not impossible and if recruitment was right we may even end up with a stronger squad. Let's be honest, most of our high earners are hardly outstanding players at Championship level anymore and probably wouldn't pull up any tree's in L1 |  | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:18 - Dec 5 with 6680 views | ElderGrizzly |
And with a salary cap set at 60% of turnover, you can see why we are f*cked heading into L1
Few other interesting tweets from him
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:32 - Dec 5 with 6641 views | ITFC_Forever |
You also have to add to that.... assuming we don't go straight back up in 2019-20, from 2020-21, our player wages must be <60% of that significantly reduced income.
We are fecked if we go down. Anyone who thinks otherwise is more barking than a Brexit supporter.
Anyone of any value will be gone - including all the promising youngsters some seem to think will form the nucleus of our regeneration and phoenix-like rise back in to the Champ and on in to the Prem.
We will be stuck with the dross in our squad and whoever we can pick up (very) cheaply next summer.
Relegation will be a disaster - and it is looking increasingly likely to happen. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:34 - Dec 5 with 6632 views | No9 |
It all boils down to what the Owner is preparred to spend in this investment. |  | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:41 - Dec 5 with 6610 views | TractorWood |
It's the risk of chronically underinvesting season after season. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:43 - Dec 5 with 6605 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:32 - Dec 5 by ITFC_Forever |
You also have to add to that.... assuming we don't go straight back up in 2019-20, from 2020-21, our player wages must be <60% of that significantly reduced income.
We are fecked if we go down. Anyone who thinks otherwise is more barking than a Brexit supporter.
Anyone of any value will be gone - including all the promising youngsters some seem to think will form the nucleus of our regeneration and phoenix-like rise back in to the Champ and on in to the Prem.
We will be stuck with the dross in our squad and whoever we can pick up (very) cheaply next summer.
Relegation will be a disaster - and it is looking increasingly likely to happen. |
Yes it will be a disaster but we will still have to field a team of some sort so may as well build it around our youngsters that will be on low wages anyway.
There will surely have to be a balance between cutting costs and giving ourselves the best chance of promotion so I would see no point Evans selling the likes of Downes for 500K or so. Nobody will be paying big fees for our youngsters, not to a club that they would know are desperate. | | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:43 - Dec 5 with 6601 views | wkj |
There would not be a sudden ground swell of people turning up because of cheaper tickets (assuming we would even get cheaper tickets). I would not be surprised if we lose a shed load more support because of being sick and tired of blindly following a club run by someone blindly running a club, who has scored a number of PR own goals.
January '15, Questionable staff decisions, rubbish managing directors who rile fans up more than quell them, botching up ticket prices and having to admit we didn't fall for it.
Evans' has tried to streamline ITFC like a business operation, and he has discovered it just doesn't operate in the same way, and long suffering fans won't suddenly make up the numbers to give Evans support until he actually does something making the experience of watching town worth it for the fans.
I don't buy into the true fans are still going logic, those of you who do are dedicated and deserve respect, as im sure many of your will follow town into L1, but many wont, and I also respect them, because we have been watching this scenario unfold for so long, and there have been some real golden opportunities missed to provide solidarity for the fans and club.
TL;DR - Yes, we'd be proper fecked. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:22 - Dec 5 with 6526 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:32 - Dec 5 by ITFC_Forever |
You also have to add to that.... assuming we don't go straight back up in 2019-20, from 2020-21, our player wages must be <60% of that significantly reduced income.
We are fecked if we go down. Anyone who thinks otherwise is more barking than a Brexit supporter.
Anyone of any value will be gone - including all the promising youngsters some seem to think will form the nucleus of our regeneration and phoenix-like rise back in to the Champ and on in to the Prem.
We will be stuck with the dross in our squad and whoever we can pick up (very) cheaply next summer.
Relegation will be a disaster - and it is looking increasingly likely to happen. |
There is no grace period. Our wage bill has to be that from 2019/20.
The only exception, is wages for players signed after Sept 1st in the relegation season don’t count. | | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:35 - Dec 5 with 6491 views | Vic |
I get this - but looking at Urban blues stats on another thread over half the clubs that get relegated come back up within two years. So it can be done, or are we in a different situation to those clubs that have done it?
Basically, why shouldnt we come back up, like Blackburn, Wigan, etc. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:39 - Dec 5 with 6472 views | tractorboysuffolk |
Oh well at least some of the supporters will get the expansive football they asked for / demanded by hounding out a perfectly good manager!!! | | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:43 - Dec 5 with 6455 views | JammyDodgerrr |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:35 - Dec 5 by Vic |
I get this - but looking at Urban blues stats on another thread over half the clubs that get relegated come back up within two years. So it can be done, or are we in a different situation to those clubs that have done it?
Basically, why shouldnt we come back up, like Blackburn, Wigan, etc. |
I think the reasoning would be that our entire team would be stripped apart and Wigan for example have had the same core team whilst bouncing between the divisions. Lambert probably wouldn't stay either so we'd be left with needing nearly a whole new team, a new manager and having no money available to spend.
That's how i would view it, anyway. If we went down i don't think we would be competing at the end of the table we would like. | |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:54 - Dec 5 with 6418 views | Vic |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:43 - Dec 5 by JammyDodgerrr |
I think the reasoning would be that our entire team would be stripped apart and Wigan for example have had the same core team whilst bouncing between the divisions. Lambert probably wouldn't stay either so we'd be left with needing nearly a whole new team, a new manager and having no money available to spend.
That's how i would view it, anyway. If we went down i don't think we would be competing at the end of the table we would like. |
But if other teams can thrive in Div 3, with all the restrictions it brings, why shouldn't we? Yes it would be tough and maybe we'd lose several players - but these are players which aren't exactly setting the world alight right now!So Lambert leaves - are there no managers out there who can manage in Div 3?
I don't like the fact that we're facing almost certain relegation after something like 60 years in the top 2 leagues, but others have done the same, with the same sort of financial and player implications we face and have survived and come back up. I've yet to hear anyone explain why we can;t. | |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 13:54 - Dec 5 with 6337 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:22 - Dec 5 by ElderGrizzly |
There is no grace period. Our wage bill has to be that from 2019/20.
The only exception, is wages for players signed after Sept 1st in the relegation season don’t count. |
Thought Phil said there's a season's grace?
If not, it will be even more painful and even quicker.
Edit: All another symptom of how football is broken - the drop from Prem to Champ is hard to take due to the difference in money and the drop from the Champ to L1 is becoming bigger and bigger too. [Post edited 5 Dec 2018 13:58]
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 16:40 - Dec 5 with 6237 views | JammyDodgerrr |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:54 - Dec 5 by Vic |
But if other teams can thrive in Div 3, with all the restrictions it brings, why shouldn't we? Yes it would be tough and maybe we'd lose several players - but these are players which aren't exactly setting the world alight right now!So Lambert leaves - are there no managers out there who can manage in Div 3?
I don't like the fact that we're facing almost certain relegation after something like 60 years in the top 2 leagues, but others have done the same, with the same sort of financial and player implications we face and have survived and come back up. I've yet to hear anyone explain why we can;t. |
For every team that thrives there is probably two that don't - think Coventry, Luton et al.
We are simply not equipped for it and will not have the ability to pump the funds in needed to maintain a push. There are plenty of teams established in League One that will be streets ahead of us. Look at our team from the last few weeks.
Bialkowski, Spence, Chambers (c), Pennington, Knudsen, Skuse, Chalobah, Downes, Edwards, Sears, Roberts. Subs: Gerken, Donacien, Jackson, Harrison, Bishop, Ward, Lankester.
Of these, we could expect to lose in my opinion:
Bart, Spence, Pennington, Knudsen, Chalobah, Downes, Bishop, Ward plus Huws, Adeyemi(not that they are contributing right now), Dozzell and potentially maybe even Gerken. At the least, that's about eight first team players.
I don't think we would have the resources to bring anyone in near the same level of quality and yes - there are other managers who can manage in the lower leagues, but who knows how you get on with that and can't they improve existing players?
All in all, i just feel like we will be too restricted, we are so reliant on that TV income to keep us going. | |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 17:29 - Dec 5 with 6215 views | Oxford_Blue |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:01 - Dec 5 by clive_baker |
Sure would. Relegation from the Prem allows for a bit of adjustment through the parachute payments, but we really would be up the creek if we dropped to L1. Essentially, during the 2017/2018 season our average wage bill for football staff was c. £350,000 a week. That would need to be £230,000 a week in L1 to offset the drop in broadcasting revenue. How do you go about losing £100,000 a week off the wage bill? I think we're probably part of the way there, given the departure of some high earners in the summer. Some players will have clauses which might help a little, then I would expect to see the likes of Bart, Knudsen, Chambers, Skuse, Ward, Adeyemi and Huws to leave if they're fit enough to attract any club to come in for them. Any fees received would make up the rest of the deficit plus offset any decline in ticket revenues which we will inevitably see in L1. And that's to still trade at a £6m loss where we are now. It's not impossible, but it's challenging and relies on teams coming in for those higher earners that are still in contract.
The only silver cloud I can see is that it would give an opportunity to the likes of Gerken, Kenlock, Woolfenden, Emmanuel, Bishop, Downes, Dozzell, Nydam, Lankaster, Morris etc and I have to say, that's a relatively exciting prospect to me, under the right manager (Lambert). [Post edited 5 Dec 2018 11:03]
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YEah yeah but Evans out out innit | | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 17:49 - Dec 5 with 6186 views | Radlett_blue |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:10 - Dec 5 by Harry_Palmer |
Essentially this. We would need to move on the high earners and replace them with some decent experienced league one players who could compliment the exciting young players we already have.
It would be very challenging but not impossible and if recruitment was right we may even end up with a stronger squad. Let's be honest, most of our high earners are hardly outstanding players at Championship level anymore and probably wouldn't pull up any tree's in L1 |
Perhaps reinstate Paul Hurst as manager, as we'll have a squad full of League 1 players? |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 18:01 - Dec 5 with 6169 views | Bent_double |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 11:43 - Dec 5 by Harry_Palmer |
Yes it will be a disaster but we will still have to field a team of some sort so may as well build it around our youngsters that will be on low wages anyway.
There will surely have to be a balance between cutting costs and giving ourselves the best chance of promotion so I would see no point Evans selling the likes of Downes for 500K or so. Nobody will be paying big fees for our youngsters, not to a club that they would know are desperate. |
Player sales would have to make up the shortfall.
As you say, no point selling Downes for £500k, for example, but we need to start producing £10-20m players who can be sold on every season or two.
£10m to a PL club is just small change - I think they would happily pay that sort of money (not all in one go) for a very promising teenager (Dozzell, Lankester, for example), if nothing else but to make sure they get them, as opposed to a rival PL club. Noj managed to get £22m+ out of Leicester for Maddison, even though everyone knew the financial situation at Noj. It can be done. |  |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 19:46 - Dec 5 with 6087 views | Vic |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 16:40 - Dec 5 by JammyDodgerrr |
For every team that thrives there is probably two that don't - think Coventry, Luton et al.
We are simply not equipped for it and will not have the ability to pump the funds in needed to maintain a push. There are plenty of teams established in League One that will be streets ahead of us. Look at our team from the last few weeks.
Bialkowski, Spence, Chambers (c), Pennington, Knudsen, Skuse, Chalobah, Downes, Edwards, Sears, Roberts. Subs: Gerken, Donacien, Jackson, Harrison, Bishop, Ward, Lankester.
Of these, we could expect to lose in my opinion:
Bart, Spence, Pennington, Knudsen, Chalobah, Downes, Bishop, Ward plus Huws, Adeyemi(not that they are contributing right now), Dozzell and potentially maybe even Gerken. At the least, that's about eight first team players.
I don't think we would have the resources to bring anyone in near the same level of quality and yes - there are other managers who can manage in the lower leagues, but who knows how you get on with that and can't they improve existing players?
All in all, i just feel like we will be too restricted, we are so reliant on that TV income to keep us going. |
I’m not sure your first sentence is true. Check out urbanblues thread. From memory half of those that went down to div 3 in the last 20 years haven’t come back up, but half have returned. So it’s not a 2 to 1 ratio!
I haven’t done the research but my suspicion is that most of those who don’t come back up are smaller teams for whom the championship was some sort of peak and they have returned to where they come from. I’d wager that the majority of those who have come back up are clubs like ours who have historically been in the championship or Prem. What we have that a Peterborough, Doncaster, etc don’t have is a history, a reputation, a big stadium, and even a decent crowd. This should make us a bit more attractive for someone wanting to buy from Evans and have the cud’s of returning us to former glories. (Well, that’s my dream anyway!) | |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 09:34 - Dec 6 with 5919 views | JammyDodgerrr |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 19:46 - Dec 5 by Vic |
I’m not sure your first sentence is true. Check out urbanblues thread. From memory half of those that went down to div 3 in the last 20 years haven’t come back up, but half have returned. So it’s not a 2 to 1 ratio!
I haven’t done the research but my suspicion is that most of those who don’t come back up are smaller teams for whom the championship was some sort of peak and they have returned to where they come from. I’d wager that the majority of those who have come back up are clubs like ours who have historically been in the championship or Prem. What we have that a Peterborough, Doncaster, etc don’t have is a history, a reputation, a big stadium, and even a decent crowd. This should make us a bit more attractive for someone wanting to buy from Evans and have the cud’s of returning us to former glories. (Well, that’s my dream anyway!) |
Yes, i've seen that thread now and it seems much closer to 1:1. My concern is that the championship appears to be our peak and we have been punching above our weight - agree we would be more attractive than those clubs but no-one would be buying for £100M+. | |
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| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 10:28 - Dec 6 with 5888 views | IpswichKnight |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 12:22 - Dec 5 by ElderGrizzly |
There is no grace period. Our wage bill has to be that from 2019/20.
The only exception, is wages for players signed after Sept 1st in the relegation season don’t count. |
You would hope that we have relegation clauses in players contracts so that if we are relegated the wages drop accordingly.... I know however it's ME we are talking about so they will probably rise! | | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 10:39 - Dec 6 with 5858 views | PhilTWTD |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 13:54 - Dec 5 by ITFC_Forever |
Thought Phil said there's a season's grace?
If not, it will be even more painful and even quicker.
Edit: All another symptom of how football is broken - the drop from Prem to Champ is hard to take due to the difference in money and the drop from the Champ to L1 is becoming bigger and bigger too. [Post edited 5 Dec 2018 13:58]
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I don't think I did, however the wage costs which don't count for relegated clubs are for those players signed before September 1st, not after. Also the 60 per cent wage refers to player wages - which have been around £12 million in recent seasons - not wages overall.
The definition of turnover mentioned in the below is interesting as well as it would probably mean ME's annual injection of cash would be as a donation rather than as a loan.
http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/scmp.php |  | | |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 10:52 - Dec 6 with 5836 views | IpswichKnight |
| Why relegation would be a financial disaster. on 10:39 - Dec 6 by PhilTWTD |
I don't think I did, however the wage costs which don't count for relegated clubs are for those players signed before September 1st, not after. Also the 60 per cent wage refers to player wages - which have been around £12 million in recent seasons - not wages overall.
The definition of turnover mentioned in the below is interesting as well as it would probably mean ME's annual injection of cash would be as a donation rather than as a loan.
http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/scmp.php |
Would the likes of Downes, Dozzell and Nydam be covered by this bit as well>
" Wage costs for Youth players on a professional contract are also excluded (i.e. players that have been in the club’s Youth Development scheme and have been given a pro contract); they must be 20 years of age or under at the start of the season to be discounted from the SCMP calculation. " | | | |
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