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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ 12:43 - Dec 12 with 9917 viewsElderGrizzly

Ironic eh....

She needed 158 to stay as leader
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:43 - Dec 12 with 3401 viewsStokieBlue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:05 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

It's a secret ballot. Some of them are probably lying.


On the BBC earlier they said:

"There are vertebrates, invertebrates and Tory MPs".

She will win but I wouldn’t trust all the numbers.

SB

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:45 - Dec 12 with 3388 viewsIpswichKnight

She will tell MP's that she will not lead the Tory party into another GE, that will appease a lot of MP's who do not want her to lead another GE campaign. If she refuses to do this then she will lose.
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:45 - Dec 12 with 3387 viewsMalcolmBlue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:41 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

Completely different scenarios. Thater didn't get enough to win outright so had to go through to a second round. Which she was advised she would lose.

If May wins by just one vote then she wins full stop.


Lol ok!

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:48 - Dec 12 with 3375 viewsgiant_stow

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:42 - Dec 12 by eireblue

I know this post is a bit silly.

Hard Brexiteers seemed to have been trying very hard to oust May. Cabinet resignations,talk of putting letters in and finally getting to 48 or above.

Surely if May is still PM tomorrow, they have lost.

So wouldn’t the honourable ( yes I know ), thing to do be, either vote for other options, like May’s deal, or abstain.


They're basically scum. I know I should be reasonable and respectful of difference, but these bods just want their low tax paradise at all costs. screw everyone else, screw the country.

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:48 - Dec 12 with 3371 viewsXYZ

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:40 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

I live in Scotland. I'm in a permanent state of chill.

Both Jezza's and May's votes are confidence from their respective parliamentary party colleagues.


Cool.

The difference is that May's has party rule-book consequences. Jezza's didn't.
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:53 - Dec 12 with 3359 viewsconnorscontract

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:26 - Dec 12 by uefacup81

I dare say she'll hang on as long as there are government contracts that have yet to end up with G4S - Mr May wouldn't be happy if not...


The most sensible analysis of May's regime in the past 24 hours.
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:17 - Dec 12 with 3333 viewsGlasgowBlue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:45 - Dec 12 by MalcolmBlue

Lol ok!


You can lol all you want but I'm right. Thatcher stood in a leadership contest against Michael Heseltine. Thatcher won the first round 204/152 (58.4% of the vote share). Under the then rules of the Tory party she had to win by a margin of 15%, which she fell short by just 4 votes.

The consensus was that in a re run, some of those who supported her in the first ballot would switch to Heseltine and she would be beaten. So the cabinet visited her, one at a time, and advised her to stand down so that one of them could stand against Heseltine and stop him becoming PM.

Thatcher resigned and another leadership election took place which John Major won.

Tonight's vote is a simple yes or no confidence vote. The is no margin of victory that has to be achieved. She get's 50% + 1 then she wins. Simple as that.

Iron Lion Zion
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:19 - Dec 12 with 3327 viewsGlasgowBlue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:42 - Dec 12 by eireblue

I know this post is a bit silly.

Hard Brexiteers seemed to have been trying very hard to oust May. Cabinet resignations,talk of putting letters in and finally getting to 48 or above.

Surely if May is still PM tomorrow, they have lost.

So wouldn’t the honourable ( yes I know ), thing to do be, either vote for other options, like May’s deal, or abstain.


They should but they won't. The ideal situation would be that the likes of Rees Mogg and co join Farage's new band of merry men but they are too self serving to do so.

Iron Lion Zion
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:20 - Dec 12 with 3324 viewsGlasgowBlue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:48 - Dec 12 by XYZ

Cool.

The difference is that May's has party rule-book consequences. Jezza's didn't.


She still has more support from her parliamentary party than he does, hence he didn't go for the kill over the issue today.

A strong opposition leader would have filleted May today.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:39 - Dec 12 with 3298 viewsfactual_blue

My theory, which I have and is mine, is as follows.

May decided to lance the boil. Enough loyalists put in letters of no confidence to trigger the vote. This has been time to put the maximum pressure on backbenchers who know that they don't want a leadership election at this time. Apart from it being Christmas, they don't want a 'no deal' outcome, or a situation in which the sensible course for those who don't want 'no deal' is to withdraw Article 50.

Safe in the knowledge that the numbers are really on her side, May triggers the no confidence vote, wins and is safe for at least a year.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:41 - Dec 12 with 3290 viewsJ2BLUE

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:39 - Dec 12 by factual_blue

My theory, which I have and is mine, is as follows.

May decided to lance the boil. Enough loyalists put in letters of no confidence to trigger the vote. This has been time to put the maximum pressure on backbenchers who know that they don't want a leadership election at this time. Apart from it being Christmas, they don't want a 'no deal' outcome, or a situation in which the sensible course for those who don't want 'no deal' is to withdraw Article 50.

Safe in the knowledge that the numbers are really on her side, May triggers the no confidence vote, wins and is safe for at least a year.


Interesting idea as that would mean there aren't even 48 guaranteed no confidence votes. Quite a good idea if she felt the tide was turning against her a little.

Truly impaired.
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:44 - Dec 12 with 3287 viewsNo9

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:17 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

You can lol all you want but I'm right. Thatcher stood in a leadership contest against Michael Heseltine. Thatcher won the first round 204/152 (58.4% of the vote share). Under the then rules of the Tory party she had to win by a margin of 15%, which she fell short by just 4 votes.

The consensus was that in a re run, some of those who supported her in the first ballot would switch to Heseltine and she would be beaten. So the cabinet visited her, one at a time, and advised her to stand down so that one of them could stand against Heseltine and stop him becoming PM.

Thatcher resigned and another leadership election took place which John Major won.

Tonight's vote is a simple yes or no confidence vote. The is no margin of victory that has to be achieved. She get's 50% + 1 then she wins. Simple as that.


"She get's 50% + 1 then she wins. Simple as that."

Agreed but, if she looses & a new leader is elected and declares a different policy doesn't that mean the new PM should really ask the people to provide a mandate for the different policy?
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:44 - Dec 12 with 3287 viewsXYZ

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:20 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

She still has more support from her parliamentary party than he does, hence he didn't go for the kill over the issue today.

A strong opposition leader would have filleted May today.


She's the PM; he isn't.

It's not a party political game, so it's a funny time to have a dig at the opposition.

If you want my views on Corbyn's actions see yesterday's threads. PMQs is pointless slapstick theatre.
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:48 - Dec 12 with 3281 viewsSteve_M

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:48 - Dec 12 by giant_stow

They're basically scum. I know I should be reasonable and respectful of difference, but these bods just want their low tax paradise at all costs. screw everyone else, screw the country.


Correction: low tax, low regulation paradise at the expense of everyone else.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:49 - Dec 12 with 3276 viewsm14_blue

I don’t get it, they had a leadership contest in 2016 and May won.

She won, they lost, they should get over it.

May means May. Anything else is undemocratic and the Tory party will never be able to have another leadership contest ever again.

Unless they’re saying that things have changed so fundamentally in the last 2 years that we need to revisit previous decisions....?
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:50 - Dec 12 with 3276 viewsclive_baker

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:39 - Dec 12 by factual_blue

My theory, which I have and is mine, is as follows.

May decided to lance the boil. Enough loyalists put in letters of no confidence to trigger the vote. This has been time to put the maximum pressure on backbenchers who know that they don't want a leadership election at this time. Apart from it being Christmas, they don't want a 'no deal' outcome, or a situation in which the sensible course for those who don't want 'no deal' is to withdraw Article 50.

Safe in the knowledge that the numbers are really on her side, May triggers the no confidence vote, wins and is safe for at least a year.


I think she knows she's off, so this is her put up or shut up. If she stays she has some security for a year to crack on without the constant threat of being toppled sitting over her head. If she loses she can pack her things and enjoy Christmas, leaving someone else to reverse us out of the cul-de-sac she's spent the past 18 months negotiating us into.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:00 - Dec 12 with 3263 viewsfactual_blue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:41 - Dec 12 by J2BLUE

Interesting idea as that would mean there aren't even 48 guaranteed no confidence votes. Quite a good idea if she felt the tide was turning against her a little.


I think the BBC has been calling the vote at 174-34.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:38 - Dec 12 with 3231 viewsbluelagos

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:00 - Dec 12 by factual_blue

I think the BBC has been calling the vote at 174-34.


There's a hundred missing then :-)

Or is that based on an ERG count?

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:40 - Dec 12 with 3230 viewsbluelagos

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:08 - Dec 12 by MalcolmBlue

Don't forget that it only took 45% of tory MPs to oust Thatcher.

If over 100 MPs vote to kick May out she might be in a position where she has to resign regardless if she wins or not. Historically Tory leaders set their own personal threshold of support from around a third of their MPs rather than the required half.

If you think about it if May did only just manager to get the required 158 she would only have the support of 24% of the House of Commons!

Personally though I think May will get enough to stay on, I think it's too early for a vote of no-confidence. If the meaningful vote had taken place then I think it would be a completely different story.


I'm with you a 100%. IF a third of her MPs vote against her in a confidence vote, it pretty much makes her position untenable imho.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:48 - Dec 12 with 3222 viewsitfcjoe

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:19 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

They should but they won't. The ideal situation would be that the likes of Rees Mogg and co join Farage's new band of merry men but they are too self serving to do so.


Who is Farage aligned with now?

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:50 - Dec 12 with 3214 viewsbluelagos

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:48 - Dec 12 by itfcjoe

Who is Farage aligned with now?


He was talking about setting up a new party (after he resigned from UKIP)

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:53 - Dec 12 with 3208 viewsNo9

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:40 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

I live in Scotland. I'm in a permanent state of chill.

Both Jezza's and May's votes are confidence from their respective parliamentary party colleagues.


But, presently only one is directly affecting the UK
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:54 - Dec 12 with 3204 viewsRadlett_blue

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 14:17 - Dec 12 by GlasgowBlue

You can lol all you want but I'm right. Thatcher stood in a leadership contest against Michael Heseltine. Thatcher won the first round 204/152 (58.4% of the vote share). Under the then rules of the Tory party she had to win by a margin of 15%, which she fell short by just 4 votes.

The consensus was that in a re run, some of those who supported her in the first ballot would switch to Heseltine and she would be beaten. So the cabinet visited her, one at a time, and advised her to stand down so that one of them could stand against Heseltine and stop him becoming PM.

Thatcher resigned and another leadership election took place which John Major won.

Tonight's vote is a simple yes or no confidence vote. The is no margin of victory that has to be achieved. She get's 50% + 1 then she wins. Simple as that.


Quite. And I think the size of the anti-Thatcher vote was still a big surprise to almost everyone. Most back the leader in public until they are no longer the leader.

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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:57 - Dec 12 with 3198 viewsEwan_Oozami

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 13:03 - Dec 12 by No9

Two points
1/ Unlikley there is sufficient time for a second ref. now.

2/ Fairly easy for the brexiteers to talk this out & into a no deal scenario.

Fixed term parliament law effectively make it difficult to have a vote of no confidencei any government UNLESS those bringing the vote are completely sure they can win that vote.

I suggest this scenario was planned when Mr Cameron annouced there would be a referendum.


If this scenario was planned at the time the referendum was announced that would indicate a level of foresight, planning, imagination and co-ordination totally alien and unknown within British politics hitherto - the fact that we have got to this point, with internal party differences on both sides remaining irresolvable, show what a bunch of rank amateurs we have become politically.

Just one small problem; sell their houses to who, Ben? Fcking Aquaman?
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Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:57 - Dec 12 with 3197 viewsXYZ

Being reported Theresa May has at least 165 votes to ‘remain’ on 15:50 - Dec 12 by bluelagos

He was talking about setting up a new party (after he resigned from UKIP)


last week he was encouraging UKIP entryism to take over the tory party
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