| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... 14:14 - Jan 9 with 15729 views | bluelagos |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:22 - Jan 9 with 2867 views | lowhouseblue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 16:26 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
Not really.
The default position is that we leave on 29 March. That is in UK law. It is also in EU law.
There is only one deal on the table. The EU are not going to agree a new deal at this late stage. So we either have the PMs deal or no deal.
While many MPs do not want us to leave with no deal, there is no consensus on what the UK wants instead. While the UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally, we can only extend negotiations beyond March with the agreement of the other 27 EU member states.
The challenge for the no deal brigade is to both agree what they want instead (we are a long way from this) and to do so in the next few weeks so that we can try and persuade the EU to extend negotiations beyond March. That is not an easy ask.
While the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50, May is not going to do this and her party can not challenge her leadership for another 12 months. The key questions would be could Corbyn win a vote of no confidence in the government? Possibly, but that is far from certain as the Tories and DUP would surely vote this down. Even if he did win, he would still need a mandate from the public - another referendum - before revoking article 50 and the time for that has run out.
In the absence of an alternative deal around which MPs can align and with the clock ticking down, it appears to be a choice between the PM deal or no deal. |
that's where we are isn't it. the clock is ticking and there is no alternative to may's plan on the table. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:24 - Jan 9 with 2867 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:07 - Jan 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Can't see it myself. A Backstop can't be time limited, it's not a backstop if it has a time limit.
Having said that it could be clever politics by May. The DUP May support this amendment so she gets her deal through only for the EU to block it. |
You could well be right.
Given how much choreography appears to be accompanying these negotiations, I would be surprised if this was a unilateral UK move. That would be consistent to your clever politics point.
Suspect it will be come clearer soon. |  | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:26 - Jan 9 with 2860 views | chicoazul |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 16:26 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
Not really.
The default position is that we leave on 29 March. That is in UK law. It is also in EU law.
There is only one deal on the table. The EU are not going to agree a new deal at this late stage. So we either have the PMs deal or no deal.
While many MPs do not want us to leave with no deal, there is no consensus on what the UK wants instead. While the UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally, we can only extend negotiations beyond March with the agreement of the other 27 EU member states.
The challenge for the no deal brigade is to both agree what they want instead (we are a long way from this) and to do so in the next few weeks so that we can try and persuade the EU to extend negotiations beyond March. That is not an easy ask.
While the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50, May is not going to do this and her party can not challenge her leadership for another 12 months. The key questions would be could Corbyn win a vote of no confidence in the government? Possibly, but that is far from certain as the Tories and DUP would surely vote this down. Even if he did win, he would still need a mandate from the public - another referendum - before revoking article 50 and the time for that has run out.
In the absence of an alternative deal around which MPs can align and with the clock ticking down, it appears to be a choice between the PM deal or no deal. |
Correct, and I dont see why this is so hard for so many people. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:33 - Jan 9 with 2848 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:10 - Jan 9 by connorscontract |
Apart from the fact that it misses out the other option, pausing the Article 50 withdrawal period, although that requires permission from the other EU nations.
Which would almost certainly be granted to a new PM (of whatever party) but is less likely to be granted to May, who is perceived in Europe as having had her chance to do things her way. |
I did make the point that an extension would need the agreement of the EU27.
What I could have made clearer is why would the EU27 agree to this request for an extension? They are as fed up with BREXIT as many in the UK, they also have much bigger issues to attend. EU elections, new EU parliament, Russia, migration crises are higher up their list of concerns than the UK decision to leave.
I can not see them being interested in prolonging negotiations if it is going to be more of the same. This was the point that I was trying to make. The UK PM would need to able to clearly articulate what type of relationship the UK wanted with the EU and have a mandate - either another referendum or an election fought on a specific future agreement - before the EU would be prepared to extend negotiations. I still think this is a tough ask in the time we have available. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:59 - Jan 9 with 2825 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:26 - Jan 9 by chicoazul |
Correct, and I dont see why this is so hard for so many people. |
One thing that has come from this is that we now know that the real leader of Her Majesty's opposition is Dominic Grieve.
They may as well give him a shot at taking on May at PMQ's. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:02 - Jan 9 with 2823 views | chicoazul |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:59 - Jan 9 by GlasgowBlue |
One thing that has come from this is that we now know that the real leader of Her Majesty's opposition is Dominic Grieve.
They may as well give him a shot at taking on May at PMQ's. |
Grieve, yes. Isnt he the guy who voted against his own amendment? | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:07 - Jan 9 with 2811 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:02 - Jan 9 by chicoazul |
Grieve, yes. Isnt he the guy who voted against his own amendment? |
Only after he got an eleventh-hour concession from May on the power of backbenchers to hold the government to account.
He's been very effective. As has Yvette Cooper. | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:24 - Jan 9 with 2784 views | bluelagos |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:07 - Jan 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Only after he got an eleventh-hour concession from May on the power of backbenchers to hold the government to account.
He's been very effective. As has Yvette Cooper. |
Makes you wonder if a middle party could evolve from those cross party groups of remain MPs? Or the ERG not break from the tories and join with UKIP?
It's now or never... | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:31 - Jan 9 with 2770 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:24 - Jan 9 by bluelagos |
Makes you wonder if a middle party could evolve from those cross party groups of remain MPs? Or the ERG not break from the tories and join with UKIP?
It's now or never... |
I think that is quite possible but not in the coming weeks or months.
It may not be a remainers only party but you could see them being a significant majority. [Post edited 9 Jan 2019 18:32]
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:39 - Jan 9 with 2759 views | bluelagos |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:31 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
I think that is quite possible but not in the coming weeks or months.
It may not be a remainers only party but you could see them being a significant majority. [Post edited 9 Jan 2019 18:32]
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If it happens (and I'd suggest it was only a 1 in 10 chance) surely it would be in the next 3 months? Cross party MPs are now basically working together to determine govt. policy. This may well continue for a number of weeks / votes... | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:49 - Jan 9 with 2741 views | Herbivore |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:39 - Jan 9 by bluelagos |
If it happens (and I'd suggest it was only a 1 in 10 chance) surely it would be in the next 3 months? Cross party MPs are now basically working together to determine govt. policy. This may well continue for a number of weeks / votes... |
If we leave on the 29th of March it'll be going on for another 26 months. We haven't even started negotiating an actual nuts and bolts deal with the EU yet. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 19:47 - Jan 9 with 2712 views | Steve_M |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 18:49 - Jan 9 by Herbivore |
If we leave on the 29th of March it'll be going on for another 26 months. We haven't even started negotiating an actual nuts and bolts deal with the EU yet. |
26 months?? If only that were it, it'll be at least a decade negotiating trade deals to replace those we're giving up. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:11 - Jan 9 with 2693 views | bluelagos |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 16:26 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
Not really.
The default position is that we leave on 29 March. That is in UK law. It is also in EU law.
There is only one deal on the table. The EU are not going to agree a new deal at this late stage. So we either have the PMs deal or no deal.
While many MPs do not want us to leave with no deal, there is no consensus on what the UK wants instead. While the UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally, we can only extend negotiations beyond March with the agreement of the other 27 EU member states.
The challenge for the no deal brigade is to both agree what they want instead (we are a long way from this) and to do so in the next few weeks so that we can try and persuade the EU to extend negotiations beyond March. That is not an easy ask.
While the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50, May is not going to do this and her party can not challenge her leadership for another 12 months. The key questions would be could Corbyn win a vote of no confidence in the government? Possibly, but that is far from certain as the Tories and DUP would surely vote this down. Even if he did win, he would still need a mandate from the public - another referendum - before revoking article 50 and the time for that has run out.
In the absence of an alternative deal around which MPs can align and with the clock ticking down, it appears to be a choice between the PM deal or no deal. |
May's deal or No deal, is exactly how she is trying to present things. And it is exactly that choice/proposition that parliament has (again) today basically rejected.
I accept they will need to find an alternative (Ref2? Norway?) and none of us have a clue where this will end up. But today's vote recognises the ticking clock and basically forced the gov't to face the issue in advance of where it would otherwise.
The governments tactic of 'our deal or no deal' has just been blown away and parliament will surely dictate the way forward, clear that they won't accept No deal or indeed the threat of No deal. | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:22 - Jan 9 with 2672 views | Herbivore |
That would take us dangerously close to outright civil war, I just can't see it. | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:24 - Jan 9 with 2662 views | SpruceMoose |
The state of the comments under that article  |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:30 - Jan 9 with 2653 views | giant_stow |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:22 - Jan 9 by Herbivore |
That would take us dangerously close to outright civil war, I just can't see it. |
Hope you're right, but she's that desperate...
Spruce, I draw my personal line at the express comments. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:32 - Jan 9 with 2646 views | GlasgowBlue |
Hmmm. A decent lead in the polls and a snap election.
What could possibly go wrong? | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:34 - Jan 9 with 2641 views | SpruceMoose |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:32 - Jan 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Hmmm. A decent lead in the polls and a snap election.
What could possibly go wrong? |
Seems like the Conservatives should be all over it then. Success is guaranteed. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:34 - Jan 9 with 2641 views | giant_stow |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:32 - Jan 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Hmmm. A decent lead in the polls and a snap election.
What could possibly go wrong? |
She wouldnt would she?! | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:35 - Jan 9 with 2642 views | gordon |
Scheduling a general election for 6 days after you've deliberately plunged the country into a state of chaos to basically achieve nothing. It's a plan so brilliant... |  | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:35 - Jan 9 with 2639 views | HARRY10 |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:30 - Jan 9 by giant_stow |
Hope you're right, but she's that desperate...
Spruce, I draw my personal line at the express comments. |
Bret was never going to happen, as I have stated since 2017.
All May has down is strung it out to demonstrate the sheer stupidity of the idea, and the total impracticality of it.
Unfortunately as with Canute some have deluded themselves into believing that her actions to show how it could never work,were her having support for it.
As it stands brexit doesn't happen, and she walks away with the thought that it's failure was not her fault as she 'tried her best'.
God, I have seen more complex plots on Yes, Minister
9I was the one who predicted a hung Parliament) when all talk was on how big the majority would be) | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:38 - Jan 9 with 2631 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:11 - Jan 9 by bluelagos |
May's deal or No deal, is exactly how she is trying to present things. And it is exactly that choice/proposition that parliament has (again) today basically rejected.
I accept they will need to find an alternative (Ref2? Norway?) and none of us have a clue where this will end up. But today's vote recognises the ticking clock and basically forced the gov't to face the issue in advance of where it would otherwise.
The governments tactic of 'our deal or no deal' has just been blown away and parliament will surely dictate the way forward, clear that they won't accept No deal or indeed the threat of No deal. |
Parliament can kick off as much as it wants. It does not change the fact that there is just one deal on the table and that parliamentary opinion remains so divided that there is no realistic hope of a consensus being formed in the next few weeks. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:57 - Jan 9 with 2617 views | No9 |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 16:26 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
Not really.
The default position is that we leave on 29 March. That is in UK law. It is also in EU law.
There is only one deal on the table. The EU are not going to agree a new deal at this late stage. So we either have the PMs deal or no deal.
While many MPs do not want us to leave with no deal, there is no consensus on what the UK wants instead. While the UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally, we can only extend negotiations beyond March with the agreement of the other 27 EU member states.
The challenge for the no deal brigade is to both agree what they want instead (we are a long way from this) and to do so in the next few weeks so that we can try and persuade the EU to extend negotiations beyond March. That is not an easy ask.
While the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50, May is not going to do this and her party can not challenge her leadership for another 12 months. The key questions would be could Corbyn win a vote of no confidence in the government? Possibly, but that is far from certain as the Tories and DUP would surely vote this down. Even if he did win, he would still need a mandate from the public - another referendum - before revoking article 50 and the time for that has run out.
In the absence of an alternative deal around which MPs can align and with the clock ticking down, it appears to be a choice between the PM deal or no deal. |
"The default position is that we leave on 29 March. That is in UK law. It is also in EU law."
Yes & no doubt the vote this afternoon limiting the time government has to table a 'Plan B' is to stop the brexiteers talking things out ( as I suggested a while back). The government will have to keep things moving now it is becoming clear the parliamentt majority is to stop the cliff edge, although the brexiteers still do & I am a long way from being convinced Mrs May will ytry to avoid it because if she wanted to avoid it she would have done much more much earlier. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:16 - Jan 9 with 2601 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:57 - Jan 9 by No9 |
"The default position is that we leave on 29 March. That is in UK law. It is also in EU law."
Yes & no doubt the vote this afternoon limiting the time government has to table a 'Plan B' is to stop the brexiteers talking things out ( as I suggested a while back). The government will have to keep things moving now it is becoming clear the parliamentt majority is to stop the cliff edge, although the brexiteers still do & I am a long way from being convinced Mrs May will ytry to avoid it because if she wanted to avoid it she would have done much more much earlier. |
I agree that the intent in the amendment tabled today is to avoid us running out of time and falling into a no deal.
The issue though remains that an "alternative deal" with the EU needs to be agreed in the parliament in the next few weeks if the EU is to entertain extending the negotiations.
I have been following the debate today and nothing much has changed from the previous debates. We have a deeply divided parliament with no consensus on what an alternative proposal to what May has produced on the table. | | | |
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