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Prediction Thread 02:35 - Jan 15 with 6095 viewsconnorscontract

Theresa May Edition.

What's your prediction for the outcome of the Brexit vote?

My prediction is that May will lose, the Government will survive a No Confidence Vote.

May will then announce her resignation, as she will say she has got the best deal she could, and did her best to respect the will of the people. Many political obituaries will be written borrowing heavily from the words written about Andy Murray in recent days: "dogged, remarkable resilience, courage, surprisingly good second serve" etc

The Tories intriguingly don't have a Deputy Prime Minister, but I think it is note-worthy that David Liddington moved over to the Cabinet Office a week ago. I predict he will take over the reins and manage a pause on Article 50 and a Second Referendum.


Well that's my crock of horse sheet, what's yours?

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Prediction Thread on 04:15 - Jan 15 with 4463 viewswkj

If she got ousted, I think she'd have the front to cancel brexit during the transition period to be honest. She was a remainer after all

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Prediction Thread on 04:38 - Jan 15 with 4449 viewsSpruceMoose

Prediction Thread on 04:15 - Jan 15 by wkj

If she got ousted, I think she'd have the front to cancel brexit during the transition period to be honest. She was a remainer after all


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Prediction Thread on 05:36 - Jan 15 with 4424 viewsMJallday

We will just keep having votes until we get the “right” answer

Which will be never

That’s my prediction

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Prediction Thread on 06:51 - Jan 15 with 4385 viewswkj

Prediction Thread on 05:36 - Jan 15 by MJallday

We will just keep having votes until we get the “right” answer

Which will be never

That’s my prediction


Im with Guthrum in the sense I feel we should all be anticipating and considering a general election rather than a referendum- the biggest issue in this who balls up seems to be we have a government who can no longer govern, the best hope of brexit happening in my opinion is a voter dictated cabinet shake up.

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Prediction Thread on 07:25 - Jan 15 with 4344 viewsFtnfwest

We could just have a country wide referendum about it, oh wait already thought of that. Or maybe hold a general election which we haven’t had since that referendum, no hang on. Right, referendum to see if Scotland wants to stay in the uk....no sorry don’t know..
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Prediction Thread on 07:36 - Jan 15 with 4338 viewsGuthrum

The Brexiteers will cut their own throats by voting down the Brexit deal (tho IMO possibly a closer-run thing than many seem to be predicting). There will be a mass revolt against the idea of No Deal and utter chaos as they try to find a mechanism for getting it stopped, or at least delayed.

Idiots will cry about "betrayal" because they didn't get offered exactly what they wanted and say damn fool things like "I'll never vote again". There will be a few shouty punch-ups in the streets, but nothing more serious than that.

Then either someone will step forward and take effective control of the situation (and that won't be Boris Johnson) or we will end up with a General Election to try to get some sensible governance. Tho we may have fallen messily out of the EU by then.

All this time, lurking in the background, is the threat of another worldwide recession (Chinese figures are down, markets are shaky, Washington is unstable).

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Prediction Thread on 07:44 - Jan 15 with 4321 viewsbluelagos

Just wrote, rewrote and deleted 3 predictions.

Fiik is the only thing I know :-)

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Prediction Thread on 07:52 - Jan 15 with 4313 viewsGuthrum

Prediction Thread on 07:36 - Jan 15 by Guthrum

The Brexiteers will cut their own throats by voting down the Brexit deal (tho IMO possibly a closer-run thing than many seem to be predicting). There will be a mass revolt against the idea of No Deal and utter chaos as they try to find a mechanism for getting it stopped, or at least delayed.

Idiots will cry about "betrayal" because they didn't get offered exactly what they wanted and say damn fool things like "I'll never vote again". There will be a few shouty punch-ups in the streets, but nothing more serious than that.

Then either someone will step forward and take effective control of the situation (and that won't be Boris Johnson) or we will end up with a General Election to try to get some sensible governance. Tho we may have fallen messily out of the EU by then.

All this time, lurking in the background, is the threat of another worldwide recession (Chinese figures are down, markets are shaky, Washington is unstable).


By the way, I have emailed my MP urging him to vote the way I want him to. I would recommend everybody doing the same. They are supposed to be representing our views, after all, not their own, nor those of their faction or party.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Prediction Thread on 07:53 - Jan 15 with 4310 viewsBloomBlue

We'll end up with a general at some stage in the next 2-4 years but it won't solve the EU situation as GE's are never about one topic.

The only answer is to leave with a no deal and then negotiate some form of trade agreement. All sides, UK and EU are saying they don't want a no deal, if we have it maybe both sides will actually sit behind a table and won't leave the room until they quickly come up with a deal.
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Prediction Thread on 08:59 - Jan 15 with 4281 viewsconnorscontract

Prediction Thread on 04:15 - Jan 15 by wkj

If she got ousted, I think she'd have the front to cancel brexit during the transition period to be honest. She was a remainer after all


I don't think she will. She has already announced, at the 1922 Committee vote, that she won't fight the next General Election, and has painted herself into a corner with her comments on a Second Referendum, which maybe (and I believe is) the only way out of this mess.
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Prediction Thread on 09:05 - Jan 15 with 4263 viewsjjblue84

It’s over, hope you enjoyed the show of fake democracy!!
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Prediction Thread on 09:09 - Jan 15 with 4258 viewschicoazul

A defeat today
Resignation tonight
Leadsom takes over extends A50 for 6 months
Second referendum October
55-45 win Leave
Hard Brexit on WTO
Sky falls in

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Prediction Thread on 09:10 - Jan 15 with 4253 viewschicoazul

Prediction Thread on 07:36 - Jan 15 by Guthrum

The Brexiteers will cut their own throats by voting down the Brexit deal (tho IMO possibly a closer-run thing than many seem to be predicting). There will be a mass revolt against the idea of No Deal and utter chaos as they try to find a mechanism for getting it stopped, or at least delayed.

Idiots will cry about "betrayal" because they didn't get offered exactly what they wanted and say damn fool things like "I'll never vote again". There will be a few shouty punch-ups in the streets, but nothing more serious than that.

Then either someone will step forward and take effective control of the situation (and that won't be Boris Johnson) or we will end up with a General Election to try to get some sensible governance. Tho we may have fallen messily out of the EU by then.

All this time, lurking in the background, is the threat of another worldwide recession (Chinese figures are down, markets are shaky, Washington is unstable).


Chinese have pulled their horns in absolutely everywhere which is pretty bad news.

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Prediction Thread on 09:11 - Jan 15 with 4251 viewsitfcjoe

Deal rejected. Go back to negotiate further and make minor amendments and it gets pushed through.

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Prediction Thread on 09:14 - Jan 15 with 4241 viewsRamRob

Prediction Thread on 07:53 - Jan 15 by BloomBlue

We'll end up with a general at some stage in the next 2-4 years but it won't solve the EU situation as GE's are never about one topic.

The only answer is to leave with a no deal and then negotiate some form of trade agreement. All sides, UK and EU are saying they don't want a no deal, if we have it maybe both sides will actually sit behind a table and won't leave the room until they quickly come up with a deal.


What's the difference between leaving with no deal and negotiating a trade agreement and having May's deal which will also lead to negotiating a trade agreement?

Is it just a different starting point?

I suspect any trade agreement with the EU after no deal would include some if not all what's been agreed in the current deal?

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Prediction Thread on 09:14 - Jan 15 with 4240 viewschicoazul

Prediction Thread on 09:11 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe

Deal rejected. Go back to negotiate further and make minor amendments and it gets pushed through.


that's what I hope for but do not expect.

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Prediction Thread on 09:17 - Jan 15 with 4229 viewsITFC_Forever

May loses tonight,
Tories collapse,
Brexit is cancelled,
Gen Election called,
Burnham takes over from corbyn and sweeps to victory.

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Prediction Thread on 09:17 - Jan 15 with 4222 viewsjjblue84

Prediction Thread on 09:11 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe

Deal rejected. Go back to negotiate further and make minor amendments and it gets pushed through.


That situation died its death last time, and even then it was pointless!!
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Prediction Thread on 09:18 - Jan 15 with 4222 viewsVic

My prediction:

May to lose by 85 votes then goes back to Brussels to try for concessions. She gets lots of praise and a couple of morsels from them, but not enough to change anything.

Labour then forces no confidence vote, which she survives, but labour calls for a Geneneral election - which of course they don’t get.

Corbyn continues to say nothing constructive or helpful about Brexit but rather simply continues his life long habit of moaning about how bad a job others are doing and what a wonderful job he’d do.

May stands down and another non Brexiteer steps in and delays Brexit.

Possible new referendum called.

Rinse and repeat.

All that said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s not a twist in the story yet. The EU never agree deals until 11.59 of the process, so I still think they may blink on the Irish backstop issue - but not before tonight.

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Prediction Thread on 09:22 - Jan 15 with 4206 viewsjjblue84

Prediction Thread on 09:18 - Jan 15 by Vic

My prediction:

May to lose by 85 votes then goes back to Brussels to try for concessions. She gets lots of praise and a couple of morsels from them, but not enough to change anything.

Labour then forces no confidence vote, which she survives, but labour calls for a Geneneral election - which of course they don’t get.

Corbyn continues to say nothing constructive or helpful about Brexit but rather simply continues his life long habit of moaning about how bad a job others are doing and what a wonderful job he’d do.

May stands down and another non Brexiteer steps in and delays Brexit.

Possible new referendum called.

Rinse and repeat.

All that said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s not a twist in the story yet. The EU never agree deals until 11.59 of the process, so I still think they may blink on the Irish backstop issue - but not before tonight.


May is thick but she can even be so stupid that she will go through the certainty of losing today’s result before stepping down!!
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Prediction Thread on 09:23 - Jan 15 with 4205 viewsGlasgowBlue

She’ll lose by about 90 votes, survive a motion of confidence and we’ll leave with a Norway type deal.

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Prediction Thread on 09:25 - Jan 15 with 4193 viewsitfcjoe

Prediction Thread on 09:23 - Jan 15 by GlasgowBlue

She’ll lose by about 90 votes, survive a motion of confidence and we’ll leave with a Norway type deal.


With free Movement?

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Prediction Thread on 09:25 - Jan 15 with 4190 viewschicoazul

Prediction Thread on 09:23 - Jan 15 by GlasgowBlue

She’ll lose by about 90 votes, survive a motion of confidence and we’ll leave with a Norway type deal.


Norway have already said they won't accept us joining that club, but I appreciate you said "Norway-type"

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Prediction Thread on 09:26 - Jan 15 with 4187 viewsGuthrum

Prediction Thread on 09:11 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe

Deal rejected. Go back to negotiate further and make minor amendments and it gets pushed through.


What minor amendments could be made which are acceptable to both sides?

And will the hard-core No Dealers and the Labour Party playing political games not simply reject it as "still not good enough"? Given they will not be satisfied by anything which May could possibly present (the one lot wanting the sharpest possible severance and the other a chance to overthrow the government).

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Prediction Thread on 09:29 - Jan 15 with 4180 viewsGuthrum

Prediction Thread on 09:25 - Jan 15 by itfcjoe

With free Movement?


And some sort of customs arrangement. Those are the bases for Norway's relationship with the EU.

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