| Relegation a near certainty 12:57 - Jan 21 with 4031 views | legal_blue |
The average points total of the team finishing 21st (4th from bottom) over the past 10 years is 48.4.
The highest points total of the 21st team in the last 10 years is 55 (2013).
The lowest points total is 43 (2018).
We are therefore 25 points short of the lowest points for safety.
And 37 points short of the highest.
So, with 18 games left, we either need to average at least 1.4 points per game, or just over 2.
Mathematically, we can do it. And who knows what the target will turn out to be.
But it's looking very, very unlikely.
:(
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| Relegation a near certainty on 12:59 - Jan 21 with 3634 views | Superblue95 |
I think that lowest points total to stay up will be beaten again.
I’d be stunned if any of us, Rotherham, Bolton or Reading get near 43 points |  |
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| Relegation a near certainty on 13:00 - Jan 21 with 3624 views | JammyDodgerrr |
Think this year will be a new year low for points to stay up, to be honest.
Out of the bottom 4 i can see us all winning maybe three more games, and probably not much else. |  |
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| Relegation a near certainty on 13:10 - Jan 21 with 3551 views | christiand |
Not sure why we keep putting ourselves through this talk about avoiding relegation with threads like this. Yes, mathematically we can do it, but when you have only won 3 games all season that tells you all you need to know about our chances of accumulating the points needed to escape the drop to League One. | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 with 3542 views | Guthrum |
| Relegation a near certainty on 13:10 - Jan 21 by christiand |
Not sure why we keep putting ourselves through this talk about avoiding relegation with threads like this. Yes, mathematically we can do it, but when you have only won 3 games all season that tells you all you need to know about our chances of accumulating the points needed to escape the drop to League One. |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |  |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:15 - Jan 21 with 3515 views | christiand |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |
Just need to use your eyes to see we are a 'real' poor side in this division. Love the fact you've got this blind optimism Guthrum, I have a bit more of a reality check and can all but see we're down. If we avoid finishing bottom that's a bonus!! | |
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| Relegation a near certainty on 13:15 - Jan 21 with 3507 views | ElephantintheRoom |
The mistake you make in this analysis is to assume that the bottom 3 teams this year will be averagely bad. They will be stupendously bad. A new low will be enough to survive this year...def info (so low as to be embarrassing) | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:19 - Jan 21 with 3467 views | LeagueOne |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |
Your prediction table showing us staying up is looking far off though.
Do you still think we'll finish above the drop zone? |  |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:20 - Jan 21 with 3454 views | Guthrum |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:15 - Jan 21 by christiand |
Just need to use your eyes to see we are a 'real' poor side in this division. Love the fact you've got this blind optimism Guthrum, I have a bit more of a reality check and can all but see we're down. If we avoid finishing bottom that's a bonus!! |
That isn't the point. What is to be gained by giving up while we still have a chance?
If the Manager and players did so, we'd be appalled. | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:22 - Jan 21 with 3441 views | Guthrum |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:19 - Jan 21 by LeagueOne |
Your prediction table showing us staying up is looking far off though.
Do you still think we'll finish above the drop zone? |
I want to see how this renovated team starts working first (for more than two games, of which we won half). | |
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| Relegation a near certainty on 13:24 - Jan 21 with 3431 views | GlasgowBlue |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:26 - Jan 21 with 3414 views | Harry_Palmer |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |
Our sanity? |  | | |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:26 - Jan 21 with 3412 views | FrimleyBlue |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |
Honestly I think it keeps the fan base together more if it's accepted and also minimises the negative feelings beginning to show their heads with lambert |  |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:26 - Jan 21 with 3409 views | LeagueOne |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:20 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
That isn't the point. What is to be gained by giving up while we still have a chance?
If the Manager and players did so, we'd be appalled. |
I am just asking if you stand by your prediction - you've given me to go to Cabinet minster response of dodging the question!
I haven't given in, I am realistic. This is our worse side ever and we've been truly awful all season, Saturday being one of the worse performances overall yet against an equally terrible side. I'd love to say we're going to stay up, but we just can't, we don't have the players good enough to do it. We can't score and we cannot defend, you put those two things together and you are totally fekked. That's not being overly negative it's basic logic.
I'd love us to turn around and stay up this season. It would be amazing and would feel like we'd won the league if we did, but come on, we're absolutely awful and theres no way Keane, Quaner, Elder and two recently injury stricken men in their 30's in Judge and Collins are going to change that, as proven on Saturday. Those signings are the equivalent of taking a spoon to a gunfight, and thats no disrespect to the manager who can only bring in players who will actually want to come to a side all but down on the budget we have. | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:27 - Jan 21 with 3394 views | christiand |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:20 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
That isn't the point. What is to be gained by giving up while we still have a chance?
If the Manager and players did so, we'd be appalled. |
Lets see what happens. I really can't see that we will, too many stats prove we're relegation certs, with no real evidence to show a buck in that trend from our displays or form. I'm not knocking you Guthrum and I do generally admire your optimism. Perhaps I've accepted our fate already and that's the difference? | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:35 - Jan 21 with 3359 views | Guthrum |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:26 - Jan 21 by LeagueOne |
I am just asking if you stand by your prediction - you've given me to go to Cabinet minster response of dodging the question!
I haven't given in, I am realistic. This is our worse side ever and we've been truly awful all season, Saturday being one of the worse performances overall yet against an equally terrible side. I'd love to say we're going to stay up, but we just can't, we don't have the players good enough to do it. We can't score and we cannot defend, you put those two things together and you are totally fekked. That's not being overly negative it's basic logic.
I'd love us to turn around and stay up this season. It would be amazing and would feel like we'd won the league if we did, but come on, we're absolutely awful and theres no way Keane, Quaner, Elder and two recently injury stricken men in their 30's in Judge and Collins are going to change that, as proven on Saturday. Those signings are the equivalent of taking a spoon to a gunfight, and thats no disrespect to the manager who can only bring in players who will actually want to come to a side all but down on the budget we have. |
My prediction tables (as I explained) are based on a mechanical process, not wishful thinking.
It is mathematically possible for us to stay up. Recent form shows we have a chance of staying up (as reflected in the tables).
Getting into the realms of subjectivity, we have a decent manager who is doing his best to pull the club together, we have added some valuable experience to the squad (which has already helped us to get a win), the team is showing good spirit.
It is an extremely difficult ask to avoid relegation, but while it's still possible, I refuse to indulge in talk of "we are already down" - when, quite clearly, we're not.
I do think we can get out of this. Whether we will depends upon things we do not yet know. | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:45 - Jan 21 with 3295 views | Swansea_Blue |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |
For the team, nothing.
For the fans, mental sanity and the avoidance of endless mood swings on here as people bounce between wild optimism with a rare win to abject defeatism after the inevitable loss  |  |
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| But, on the other hand, on 13:49 - Jan 21 with 3271 views | pickles110564 |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:45 - Jan 21 by Swansea_Blue |
For the team, nothing.
For the fans, mental sanity and the avoidance of endless mood swings on here as people bounce between wild optimism with a rare win to abject defeatism after the inevitable loss |
So what you are saying, a normal match day in the chatroom. |  | | |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:51 - Jan 21 with 3262 views | Swansea_Blue |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:49 - Jan 21 by pickles110564 |
So what you are saying, a normal match day in the chatroom. |
Pretty much, yeah | |
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| Relegation a near certainty on 13:53 - Jan 21 with 3257 views | textbackup |
| Relegation a near certainty on 13:10 - Jan 21 by christiand |
Not sure why we keep putting ourselves through this talk about avoiding relegation with threads like this. Yes, mathematically we can do it, but when you have only won 3 games all season that tells you all you need to know about our chances of accumulating the points needed to escape the drop to League One. |
its not just the 3 wins all season to be worried about, its the 3 home wins in a calendar year etc..... everything points at us going down |  |
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| Relegation a near certainty on 13:59 - Jan 21 with 3219 views | Vaughan8 |
We haven't scored a goal in 7 of our last 8 away games...……..
19 of our 28 games, we've let in 2 or more goals, which means we need 3 to win (which we did once!)
Unless these things change, even if the others barely get any points, we are still going to struggle to get out.
If this was another team, we'd (mostly) all be saying they've gone, their down. But because its our team we start thinking is it possible etc...……
We definitely need a run of decent results (say 4 or 5 games where we don't lose and have at least a few wins), otherwise we are screwed. The other teams aren't going to lose every game either so they will be picking up points here and there! | | | |
| But, on the other hand, on 14:03 - Jan 21 with 3199 views | Guthrum |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:26 - Jan 21 by FrimleyBlue |
Honestly I think it keeps the fan base together more if it's accepted and also minimises the negative feelings beginning to show their heads with lambert |
Honestly? I consider it odd that gloomy fatalism could be thought a better unifying force than grim combativeness.
As for attitude to Lambert, if we even come close to survival, he will have performed miracles for which we ought to be grateful.
What I'm battling against is a defeatist mindset, a growing assumption that we are already doomed. If these things are said often enough, they become normalised. Pretty soon it will start seeping into all areas of the club. Intensity of support will drop (why bother going if we're only likely to lose anyway?) and that will transfer onto the pitch with the backing the players are feeling. There is the danger that, eventually, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 14:07 - Jan 21 with 3171 views | Guthrum |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:26 - Jan 21 by Harry_Palmer |
Our sanity? |
Is unmitigated depression a particularly healthy mindset? | |
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| But, on the other hand, on 14:23 - Jan 21 with 3127 views | reusersfreekicks |
| But, on the other hand, on 13:12 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
what do we gain by giving up before it is a certainty? |
Emotional solace? |  | | |
| But, on the other hand, on 14:38 - Jan 21 with 3082 views | Harry_Palmer |
| But, on the other hand, on 14:07 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
Is unmitigated depression a particularly healthy mindset? |
No, but accepting the reality of our situation does not have to mean unmitigated depression. In fact I personally feel like a weight has been lifted.
If you mentally prepare yourself for relegation, league One and all that goes with it, it becomes a lot easier to cope with when it is confirmed.
I don't see any value in kidding ourselves that we can survive when the overwhelming evidence suggests that this is not going to happen. | | | |
| But, on the other hand, on 14:41 - Jan 21 with 3072 views | chicoazul |
| But, on the other hand, on 14:07 - Jan 21 by Guthrum |
Is unmitigated depression a particularly healthy mindset? |
No, but accepting a simple reality that we have no control over anyway definitely is. Nobody is saying anyone should stop supporting or singing. |  |
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