| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? 14:59 - Jan 21 with 6288 views | homer_123 |
Short piece about the costs of a hard brexit from a business perspective.
He stated that we pay the EU around £10b net to the EU per annum (he didn't detail what this was for exactly) and then stated if we left the EU on a hard brexit the cost to UK business in tariffs et al is around £5b per annum....so, in effect he was saying that even on a hard brexit we'd gain £5b per annum.
Now, I'd love to be able to fact check those figures? Anyone know or point me in the right direction?
Also, is this, in effect, the 3% to 6% of GDP loss the IMF and likes have calculated as the cost to the UK economy for leaving the EU? |  |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:15 - Jan 21 with 3786 views | GlasgowBlue |
He's been saying this for some time:
"Is our net £10 billion contribution to the EU 'a small price to pay for tariff free access to the EU market'? If we left the EU with no trade deal — inconceivable given the tariff free zone from Iceland to Turkey — our exports would face EU tariffs averaging just 2.4% 1 . But our net contribution to the EU budget is equivalent to a 7% tariff. Paying 7% to avoid 2-3% is miss-selling that dwarfs the PPI scandal!"
Full Fact have our net contribution at £9billion but that is due to increase and we are losing the rebate*
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
His figure of £5billion on tariffs has been checked.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/24/eu-firms-higher-tariffs-export-
*If we stay in. [Post edited 21 Jan 2019 15:18]
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:20 - Jan 21 with 3785 views | eireblue |
I think that figure must be very suspect, given the “et al” comment.
For that to be accurate he would need all business effected by a hard brexit to have an accurate assessment of what that would cost.
Given the degree of uncertainty, e.g.
https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/media/get/Business%20Brexit%20Risk%20Register
I can’t see how the 5bn figure is accurate.
II believe that the CBI did a report, but didn’t put a figure on it, but a conclusion/assertion was that no-tariff costs will be greater than tariff costs.
So, be interesting to see where the 5Bn figure cam from. My knowledge may be out of date. |  | | |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:25 - Jan 21 with 3772 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:15 - Jan 21 by GlasgowBlue |
He's been saying this for some time:
"Is our net £10 billion contribution to the EU 'a small price to pay for tariff free access to the EU market'? If we left the EU with no trade deal — inconceivable given the tariff free zone from Iceland to Turkey — our exports would face EU tariffs averaging just 2.4% 1 . But our net contribution to the EU budget is equivalent to a 7% tariff. Paying 7% to avoid 2-3% is miss-selling that dwarfs the PPI scandal!"
Full Fact have our net contribution at £9billion but that is due to increase and we are losing the rebate*
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
His figure of £5billion on tariffs has been checked.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/24/eu-firms-higher-tariffs-export-
*If we stay in. [Post edited 21 Jan 2019 15:18]
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So, if I am reading this right, his assertion that we paying £10b to save £5b (which is what I think he said this morning) correct? Just getting my head around it.
Now you mention it, he did also state that the 'average' tariff works out at 2.4%.
All of this, of course, assumes that trade levels remain the same (broadly)? Which, of course we may find they won't. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:34 - Jan 21 with 3745 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:25 - Jan 21 by homer_123 |
So, if I am reading this right, his assertion that we paying £10b to save £5b (which is what I think he said this morning) correct? Just getting my head around it.
Now you mention it, he did also state that the 'average' tariff works out at 2.4%.
All of this, of course, assumes that trade levels remain the same (broadly)? Which, of course we may find they won't. |
Yes that's exactly what he is saying.
This is his blog just before the referendum.
https://www.peterlilley.co.uk/publications/1898/myths-about-trade-single-market | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:53 - Jan 21 with 3727 views | The_Last_Baron |
I believe it's time for Town fans who want to discuss Brexit to heat to Guido Fawkes or The Canary to discuss such things.
It's boring on here with ten different threads a day going around in circles. Maybe there should be one thread created called Brexit - where all chat related to this subject has to go. No new threads can be created. And we can ignore that thread with a click on a button. |  |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:58 - Jan 21 with 3716 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:53 - Jan 21 by The_Last_Baron |
I believe it's time for Town fans who want to discuss Brexit to heat to Guido Fawkes or The Canary to discuss such things.
It's boring on here with ten different threads a day going around in circles. Maybe there should be one thread created called Brexit - where all chat related to this subject has to go. No new threads can be created. And we can ignore that thread with a click on a button. |
I can understand that but this is the thing about TWTD - the fact of the matter is that pretty much most things can be discussed and debated, as much or as little as people like.
I did post under the 'General' thread and not the 'Football' thread. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:02 - Jan 21 with 3712 views | hampstead_blue |
I heard the piece.
I'm not a fan of a hard Brexit BUT, what I think you'll find is that if it did happen then the lights would still shine and all the broohaha (good word that) would be a few ripples rather than the torrent of pain.
MP's are being selfish. They want remain as do most of the elite. As such they will quote horror stories all day.
The EU need us, badly. Why did the Germans put out that sickly tripe about 'tea and milk' this weekend.
They are papping themselves as it's them who will have to pay more WHEN we leave.
They could not give a monkey's about us. If they did then they would have given us a good deal.
The costs of No Deal are unknown. Nobody can predict. Neither side.
I can't wait for Brexit. If it's No Deal then I'd wager my Custom Shop Les Paul that we'll be fine.
Lilley is a very experienced person, former business minister. Don't fall for the elite's view.
I saw a statement stating that the likes of Kinnock has a pension >£1m quid and Mandy >£500k from the EU.........says it all. |  |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
| | Poll: | Best Blackpool goal |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:13 - Jan 21 with 3690 views | The_Last_Baron |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:58 - Jan 21 by homer_123 |
I can understand that but this is the thing about TWTD - the fact of the matter is that pretty much most things can be discussed and debated, as much or as little as people like.
I did post under the 'General' thread and not the 'Football' thread. |
Let's just have one thread then. It can run to 1000 pages if needed but it'll be easy to avoid. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:45 - Jan 21 with 3654 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:25 - Jan 21 by homer_123 |
So, if I am reading this right, his assertion that we paying £10b to save £5b (which is what I think he said this morning) correct? Just getting my head around it.
Now you mention it, he did also state that the 'average' tariff works out at 2.4%.
All of this, of course, assumes that trade levels remain the same (broadly)? Which, of course we may find they won't. |
The only trouble with his argument is that he conveniently ignores all the other benefits of membership, not just the savings on tariffs we'd otherwise have to pay. |  |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:54 - Jan 21 with 3633 views | eireblue |
This is the CBI report, that I mentioned earlier.
http://www.cbi.org.uk/cbi-prod/assets/File/pdf/17%2009%2011%20No%20Deal%20write%
The interesting thing is that there are unknowns. The report seems to mention that.
Therefore, if the CBI are unsure of costs, how can someone claim to know for definite that there will be a benefit.
If someone is making an argument with definitive figures, at the moment, I would want to see their working. | | | |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:57 - Jan 21 with 3625 views | m14_blue |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:02 - Jan 21 by hampstead_blue |
I heard the piece.
I'm not a fan of a hard Brexit BUT, what I think you'll find is that if it did happen then the lights would still shine and all the broohaha (good word that) would be a few ripples rather than the torrent of pain.
MP's are being selfish. They want remain as do most of the elite. As such they will quote horror stories all day.
The EU need us, badly. Why did the Germans put out that sickly tripe about 'tea and milk' this weekend.
They are papping themselves as it's them who will have to pay more WHEN we leave.
They could not give a monkey's about us. If they did then they would have given us a good deal.
The costs of No Deal are unknown. Nobody can predict. Neither side.
I can't wait for Brexit. If it's No Deal then I'd wager my Custom Shop Les Paul that we'll be fine.
Lilley is a very experienced person, former business minister. Don't fall for the elite's view.
I saw a statement stating that the likes of Kinnock has a pension >£1m quid and Mandy >£500k from the EU.........says it all. |
Why are MP’s being selfish? What is in it for them?
They’re not the elite, they’re our elected representatives. |  | | |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:57 - Jan 21 with 3628 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:45 - Jan 21 by Swansea_Blue |
The only trouble with his argument is that he conveniently ignores all the other benefits of membership, not just the savings on tariffs we'd otherwise have to pay. |
It was a 'specific' discussion on Radio 4 about a hard brexit and the potential costs to UK business - it wasn't a broader discussion.
Glassers has posted his blog which he wrote before the referendum and this point is within many more points of the wider benefits or not of being withing the EU.
I'd agree Swansea that there are other benefits of being within the EU for sure, so I'm looking at his views and musings in that wider context (I know you and I have discussed cross EU Education and Research in the past for example and the benefits of mutual EU programmes in this regard, as one example). | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:01 - Jan 21 with 3610 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:57 - Jan 21 by m14_blue |
Why are MP’s being selfish? What is in it for them?
They’re not the elite, they’re our elected representatives. |
Whilst that last sentence is entirely correct - I would wager that a few consider themselves 'the elite' but that's a whole other discussion! | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:13 - Jan 21 with 3592 views | Darth_Koont |
It shows the lack of real understanding most of our politicians have. Or at least how they can look to oversimplify and hoodwink the public.
It's not just a question of tariffs but the non-tariff barriers like new customs documentation and regulations, delays for extra processing and the uncertainty all that builds. The tariff costs are the tip of the iceberg for many businesses big and small, certainly for those who are involved in supply chains.
For many, these extras will cut heavily into their profits if not make their business unsustainable from a logistics point of view. Certainly, you wouldn't pick a supplier that has to absorb theses costs and risks if others are available on mainland Europe. Or invest in a larger supply chain with its base in the UK. |  |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:15 - Jan 21 with 3583 views | eireblue |
Yep, so that one does not quantify non-tariff related costs, but at least acknowledges they exist.
The CBI thinks that potentially non-tariff costs could be higher.
Therefore seems to me anyone making an argument solely based on tariff costs, is making a flawed argument. | | | |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:18 - Jan 21 with 3574 views | Darth_Koont |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 15:20 - Jan 21 by eireblue |
I think that figure must be very suspect, given the “et al” comment.
For that to be accurate he would need all business effected by a hard brexit to have an accurate assessment of what that would cost.
Given the degree of uncertainty, e.g.
https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/media/get/Business%20Brexit%20Risk%20Register
I can’t see how the 5bn figure is accurate.
II believe that the CBI did a report, but didn’t put a figure on it, but a conclusion/assertion was that no-tariff costs will be greater than tariff costs.
So, be interesting to see where the 5Bn figure cam from. My knowledge may be out of date. |
Exactly re: non-tariff barriers and their costs.
Those barriers and costs also don't take into account how that will affect sales overseas or investment in UK operations. How attractive will UK businesses be as a producer, distributor or reseller with these burdens? | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:20 - Jan 21 with 3559 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:15 - Jan 21 by eireblue |
Yep, so that one does not quantify non-tariff related costs, but at least acknowledges they exist.
The CBI thinks that potentially non-tariff costs could be higher.
Therefore seems to me anyone making an argument solely based on tariff costs, is making a flawed argument. |
I'm not suggesting for one minute that No Deal is the way we should be going or that Lilley's argument stands up, and as I've said before were there to be a second referendum then I'd vote to remain, but Homer was asking where Lilley got his Tariff figures and UK contribution figures from. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:30 - Jan 21 with 3556 views | eireblue |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:20 - Jan 21 by GlasgowBlue |
I'm not suggesting for one minute that No Deal is the way we should be going or that Lilley's argument stands up, and as I've said before were there to be a second referendum then I'd vote to remain, but Homer was asking where Lilley got his Tariff figures and UK contribution figures from. |
I agree. It was the “et al” bit I came in on.
I don’t know if Peter Lilley used that phrase or the OP assumed it. | | | |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:37 - Jan 21 with 3541 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:57 - Jan 21 by homer_123 |
It was a 'specific' discussion on Radio 4 about a hard brexit and the potential costs to UK business - it wasn't a broader discussion.
Glassers has posted his blog which he wrote before the referendum and this point is within many more points of the wider benefits or not of being withing the EU.
I'd agree Swansea that there are other benefits of being within the EU for sure, so I'm looking at his views and musings in that wider context (I know you and I have discussed cross EU Education and Research in the past for example and the benefits of mutual EU programmes in this regard, as one example). |
As long as the point is remembered - I could easily see that turning into a headline like ‘More EU Madness As We Pay £10bn to save £5bn!!’.
I was also struggling to understand the logic in his blog behind saying trade agreements aren’t that important because of a multilateral trade agreement (the Uruguay Round). Seems like a circular arguement to me. Not that I doubt his knowledge or experience! | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 18:52 - Jan 21 with 3482 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:13 - Jan 21 by Darth_Koont |
It shows the lack of real understanding most of our politicians have. Or at least how they can look to oversimplify and hoodwink the public.
It's not just a question of tariffs but the non-tariff barriers like new customs documentation and regulations, delays for extra processing and the uncertainty all that builds. The tariff costs are the tip of the iceberg for many businesses big and small, certainly for those who are involved in supply chains.
For many, these extras will cut heavily into their profits if not make their business unsustainable from a logistics point of view. Certainly, you wouldn't pick a supplier that has to absorb theses costs and risks if others are available on mainland Europe. Or invest in a larger supply chain with its base in the UK. |
Yep, I think I said below, the other thing is that it assumes trade levels remain broadly static. Which is another unknown.
Your points are valid DK. Although it must be said that the much communicated cliff edge from a 'business' perspective rings a touch hollow does it not?
We appear to move ever closer to No Deal it seems (although I suspect a deal will be done eventually, in last minute politik style).
It's impossible to know what would happen if we left with no deal but I really don't think it will be as bad as people make out.
The pound, again, rallied well last week and, again defied predictions.
I'd rather we leave with a deal to be honest and one that benefits us as much as possible. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 19:00 - Jan 21 with 3468 views | gordon |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 16:02 - Jan 21 by hampstead_blue |
I heard the piece.
I'm not a fan of a hard Brexit BUT, what I think you'll find is that if it did happen then the lights would still shine and all the broohaha (good word that) would be a few ripples rather than the torrent of pain.
MP's are being selfish. They want remain as do most of the elite. As such they will quote horror stories all day.
The EU need us, badly. Why did the Germans put out that sickly tripe about 'tea and milk' this weekend.
They are papping themselves as it's them who will have to pay more WHEN we leave.
They could not give a monkey's about us. If they did then they would have given us a good deal.
The costs of No Deal are unknown. Nobody can predict. Neither side.
I can't wait for Brexit. If it's No Deal then I'd wager my Custom Shop Les Paul that we'll be fine.
Lilley is a very experienced person, former business minister. Don't fall for the elite's view.
I saw a statement stating that the likes of Kinnock has a pension >£1m quid and Mandy >£500k from the EU.........says it all. |
Peter Lilley was on the payroll of an oil and gas company while he was an as an MP, and devoted most of his latter years in parliament to undermining climate science and attempts to tackle climate change. |  | | |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 19:02 - Jan 21 with 3459 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:30 - Jan 21 by eireblue |
I agree. It was the “et al” bit I came in on.
I don’t know if Peter Lilley used that phrase or the OP assumed it. |
Et al are my words here...not Lilleys. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 19:06 - Jan 21 with 3451 views | homer_123 |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 17:37 - Jan 21 by Swansea_Blue |
As long as the point is remembered - I could easily see that turning into a headline like ‘More EU Madness As We Pay £10bn to save £5bn!!’.
I was also struggling to understand the logic in his blog behind saying trade agreements aren’t that important because of a multilateral trade agreement (the Uruguay Round). Seems like a circular arguement to me. Not that I doubt his knowledge or experience! |
Hes been there and done it...so one can suspect it's true if only hes choosing to cherry pick the parts to suit his position.
Although I guess these could be his views regardless of Brexit. | |
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| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 19:08 - Jan 21 with 3450 views | Darth_Koont |
| Peter Lilley on Radio 4 this morning, anyone catch it? on 18:52 - Jan 21 by homer_123 |
Yep, I think I said below, the other thing is that it assumes trade levels remain broadly static. Which is another unknown.
Your points are valid DK. Although it must be said that the much communicated cliff edge from a 'business' perspective rings a touch hollow does it not?
We appear to move ever closer to No Deal it seems (although I suspect a deal will be done eventually, in last minute politik style).
It's impossible to know what would happen if we left with no deal but I really don't think it will be as bad as people make out.
The pound, again, rallied well last week and, again defied predictions.
I'd rather we leave with a deal to be honest and one that benefits us as much as possible. |
"The much communicated cliff edge from a 'business' perspective rings a touch hollow does it not?"
Errr no. It's adding cost, risk and uncertainty to UK businesses. Especially with a likely decade of trade negotiations ahead even if we exit with an EU deal that keeps things much as they are with them.
Cost, risk and uncertainty means the real value of these businesses goes down. Certainly it's harder to do business and build relationships, harder to get investment from overseas and harder to commit to new strategic investments in new products and new markets.
Will all businesses fail overnight? Of course not. Some will but we're talking about percentage points being wiped off across the board and off our GDP as a result. If that's not risking a recession on its own and fallout across many other businesses and jobs that rely on a stable economy, the problems of a real recession that may be just around the corner are magnified.
Instead of putting that burden onto individual businesses, spending a few billion from the Treasury to access and help shape our largest market is a small price to pay. In fact, it's a great investment. | |
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