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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party 09:03 - Feb 18 with 4617 viewsGuthrum

The increasingly desperate noises from the tribal leadership are possibly an indication it might really happen this time. Tho I'm not holding my breath.

Plus I really hope some Conservatives also defect if a new party is formed. Plus the ERG hiving off to Farage's new Brexit Party.

We do need a shake-up in UK politics.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:05 - Feb 18 with 1830 viewsGlasgowBlue

From Robert Peston.... by GlasgowBlue 18 Feb 2019 9:03
It’s happening in two stages. A few resignations today with the aim of forcing Corbyn to address Brexit and antisemitism. If no real progress is made the wholesale resignations in the summer.



Not sure we are at the stage of a new party yet. More of a new independent grouping on the opposition benches.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:12 - Feb 18 with 1802 viewsHerbivore

The Tory party will ultimately stick together, it's always party first.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:14 - Feb 18 with 1790 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:05 - Feb 18 by GlasgowBlue

From Robert Peston.... by GlasgowBlue 18 Feb 2019 9:03
It’s happening in two stages. A few resignations today with the aim of forcing Corbyn to address Brexit and antisemitism. If no real progress is made the wholesale resignations in the summer.



Not sure we are at the stage of a new party yet. More of a new independent grouping on the opposition benches.


An independent grouping effectively is a new party, in functional terms. Particularly if operating (and voting) in concert on significant issues.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:15 - Feb 18 with 1782 viewsGlasgowBlue

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:12 - Feb 18 by Herbivore

The Tory party will ultimately stick together, it's always party first.


I can see people like Soubry and Wollaston breaking away eventually but they are dissatisfied over one issue, Brexit, whereas the Labour breakaway is caused by two issues, Brexit and (sorry to mention it again) antisemitism. So the Labour split will be far greater than that on the Tory benches.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:17 - Feb 18 with 1780 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

International Rescue have just arrived.......

.......

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:17 - Feb 18 with 1772 viewsGlasgowBlue

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:14 - Feb 18 by Guthrum

An independent grouping effectively is a new party, in functional terms. Particularly if operating (and voting) in concert on significant issues.


They could sit as Co-op MP’s without starting a new party but aI agree that we will see a new party come from this. Just not now.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:21 - Feb 18 with 1758 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:15 - Feb 18 by GlasgowBlue

I can see people like Soubry and Wollaston breaking away eventually but they are dissatisfied over one issue, Brexit, whereas the Labour breakaway is caused by two issues, Brexit and (sorry to mention it again) antisemitism. So the Labour split will be far greater than that on the Tory benches.


You forgot the real issue.....being a proper left alternative.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:22 - Feb 18 with 1747 viewsGlasgowBlue

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:21 - Feb 18 by BanksterDebtSlave

You forgot the real issue.....being a proper left alternative.


I respectfully disagree.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:23 - Feb 18 with 1751 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:12 - Feb 18 by Herbivore

The Tory party will ultimately stick together, it's always party first.


It's the same with Labour. Or, rather, was.

However, Brexit (in combination with other issues) has introduced political shearing forces which cut across traditional party loyalties and are strong enough to tip over from internal grievances to outright splits. The Conservatives are no more immune to that than Labour.

For example, the ERG has nowhere to go if they don't get their way other than out of the Party. They are already in maximum rebellion mode, voting against Government policy. If they succeed, then the position of the moderates becomes untenable. Combined with increasing disquiet bubbling below the surface about issues such as continuing austerity and Universal Credit, that is more than enough to trigger splits - especially if there is already a seed to join.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:24 - Feb 18 with 1743 viewsHerbivore

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:15 - Feb 18 by GlasgowBlue

I can see people like Soubry and Wollaston breaking away eventually but they are dissatisfied over one issue, Brexit, whereas the Labour breakaway is caused by two issues, Brexit and (sorry to mention it again) antisemitism. So the Labour split will be far greater than that on the Tory benches.


There's those two issues plus being ideologically opposed to the leadership. There's a lot of centrist MPs who aren't comfortable with a more left wing Labour party. They probably need to split but so do the Tories, I do find it staggering that May continues to pander to the ERG rather than seeking to cut them loose.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:26 - Feb 18 with 1732 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:24 - Feb 18 by Herbivore

There's those two issues plus being ideologically opposed to the leadership. There's a lot of centrist MPs who aren't comfortable with a more left wing Labour party. They probably need to split but so do the Tories, I do find it staggering that May continues to pander to the ERG rather than seeking to cut them loose.


Cutting loose the ERG immediately loses May her majority (especially as the DUP would probably go with them). Given she can't currently rely on any Labour (or other party) support for her Deal, that's her stuffed.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:29 - Feb 18 with 1727 viewsSteve_M

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:23 - Feb 18 by Guthrum

It's the same with Labour. Or, rather, was.

However, Brexit (in combination with other issues) has introduced political shearing forces which cut across traditional party loyalties and are strong enough to tip over from internal grievances to outright splits. The Conservatives are no more immune to that than Labour.

For example, the ERG has nowhere to go if they don't get their way other than out of the Party. They are already in maximum rebellion mode, voting against Government policy. If they succeed, then the position of the moderates becomes untenable. Combined with increasing disquiet bubbling below the surface about issues such as continuing austerity and Universal Credit, that is more than enough to trigger splits - especially if there is already a seed to join.


Yes, anyone who claims to be certain that British politics will revert to old patterns after the last few years really hasn't been paying attention.

Nick Cohen was good last week on the reasons why Labour needs to split but I agree that the Tories are equally being held together by the thinnest margins at present.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/the-corbyn-crack-up/

If Brexit goes ahead and goes disastrously wrong, as it will without nay semblance of a deal, then who knows what will happen once the public start sharing out blame.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:30 - Feb 18 with 1722 viewsHerbivore

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:26 - Feb 18 by Guthrum

Cutting loose the ERG immediately loses May her majority (especially as the DUP would probably go with them). Given she can't currently rely on any Labour (or other party) support for her Deal, that's her stuffed.


Cutting loose the ERG opens up the possibility for meaningful cross party dialogue and consensus. The fact that Brexit has been and continues to be a Tory issue is the reason it's such a shambles. The ERG have also shown that she only has a majority of she does what they want, meaning we essentially have a clutch of borderline far right, highly privileged individuals holding all the power.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:33 - Feb 18 with 1706 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:22 - Feb 18 by GlasgowBlue

I respectfully disagree.


I respectfully accept your disagreement.....work calls I bid you good day.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:42 - Feb 18 with 1684 viewsNo9

The chances of any tories joining a labour, or any other party are remote. Maybe one or two of the 'one nation' tory group may consider it but the new intake are well to the right and are happy with any form of brexit as long as its right wing.

I would not be surprised in the ERG group take over the tories and Farage is given a safe seat at the next G.E.

I agree with your last bit & add - urgently
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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:49 - Feb 18 with 1667 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:29 - Feb 18 by Steve_M

Yes, anyone who claims to be certain that British politics will revert to old patterns after the last few years really hasn't been paying attention.

Nick Cohen was good last week on the reasons why Labour needs to split but I agree that the Tories are equally being held together by the thinnest margins at present.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/the-corbyn-crack-up/

If Brexit goes ahead and goes disastrously wrong, as it will without nay semblance of a deal, then who knows what will happen once the public start sharing out blame.


The present parties only came into existence (in their modern form) through the economic turmoil of the first half of the 20th century - which also tore apart the long-established old Liberal Party*. Apart, perhaps, from the (similarly fractious) 1970s and 80s, they have persisted largely out of habit since then.

The turbulence around Brexit and its possible aftermaths, following on from the 2008 financial crash, the migration crisis and the rise of nationalism, is certainly strong enough to reshape UK politics.

* Tho, interestingly, the two World Wars were not catalysts of change, acting more as a force for cooperation than reorganisation.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:54 - Feb 18 with 1652 viewsNo9

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:29 - Feb 18 by Steve_M

Yes, anyone who claims to be certain that British politics will revert to old patterns after the last few years really hasn't been paying attention.

Nick Cohen was good last week on the reasons why Labour needs to split but I agree that the Tories are equally being held together by the thinnest margins at present.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/the-corbyn-crack-up/

If Brexit goes ahead and goes disastrously wrong, as it will without nay semblance of a deal, then who knows what will happen once the public start sharing out blame.


The defence secretary will send out a few gunboats to deal with dissidents
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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:57 - Feb 18 with 1639 viewsfooters

Bye Chukka, don't let the door hit your arse on the way out!

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:00 - Feb 18 with 1633 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:30 - Feb 18 by Herbivore

Cutting loose the ERG opens up the possibility for meaningful cross party dialogue and consensus. The fact that Brexit has been and continues to be a Tory issue is the reason it's such a shambles. The ERG have also shown that she only has a majority of she does what they want, meaning we essentially have a clutch of borderline far right, highly privileged individuals holding all the power.


Depends how far Labour are prepared to move. They have their own internal divisions on Brexit. Is there a Commons majority for a customs union, given it's beyond what many even moderate Leavers would accept - and, arguably, if we're prepared to do that, why not just stay in?

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:05 - Feb 18 with 1617 viewsHerbivore

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:00 - Feb 18 by Guthrum

Depends how far Labour are prepared to move. They have their own internal divisions on Brexit. Is there a Commons majority for a customs union, given it's beyond what many even moderate Leavers would accept - and, arguably, if we're prepared to do that, why not just stay in?


But given May's deal isn't acceptable to the hard Brexiteers in her own party then unless she's willing to pursue no deal she needs to find a deal that more moderate MPs across the spectrum will back. She's tried appeasing the swivel-eyed loons but nothing short of the moon on a stick will do for them so it's time to look at finding consensus elsewhere. That may or may not be possible, in which case a second referendum seems the only solution. Just ploughing forward hoping to make enough tweaks to appease the fringe of her party isn't good enough.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:17 - Feb 18 with 1588 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:42 - Feb 18 by No9

The chances of any tories joining a labour, or any other party are remote. Maybe one or two of the 'one nation' tory group may consider it but the new intake are well to the right and are happy with any form of brexit as long as its right wing.

I would not be surprised in the ERG group take over the tories and Farage is given a safe seat at the next G.E.

I agree with your last bit & add - urgently


Not so sure about that. Think there are a number - the likes of Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry - who migh defect to another grouping (which would, of course, not actually be Labour). Plus there are others who would think twice if the party lurched further to the right and/or actively embraced No Deal.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:18 - Feb 18 with 1581 viewscatch74

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:17 - Feb 18 by Guthrum

Not so sure about that. Think there are a number - the likes of Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry - who migh defect to another grouping (which would, of course, not actually be Labour). Plus there are others who would think twice if the party lurched further to the right and/or actively embraced No Deal.


Seven MPs leave Labour Party http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47278902

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:20 - Feb 18 with 1575 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 09:57 - Feb 18 by footers

Bye Chukka, don't let the door hit your arse on the way out!


In reality, a split will strengthen Labour as a left-wing, Corbynist-McDonnellist party. They will be able to formulate policies unfettered by the moderates or Blairites.

And, as part of a coalition, probably stand a better chance of getting into government.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:22 - Feb 18 with 1562 viewsPinewoodblue

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:00 - Feb 18 by Guthrum

Depends how far Labour are prepared to move. They have their own internal divisions on Brexit. Is there a Commons majority for a customs union, given it's beyond what many even moderate Leavers would accept - and, arguably, if we're prepared to do that, why not just stay in?


Suspect there will be a number of deselections, prior to next election, in both major parties.

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Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:22 - Feb 18 with 1562 viewsGuthrum

Supposed impending split in the Labour Party on 10:05 - Feb 18 by Herbivore

But given May's deal isn't acceptable to the hard Brexiteers in her own party then unless she's willing to pursue no deal she needs to find a deal that more moderate MPs across the spectrum will back. She's tried appeasing the swivel-eyed loons but nothing short of the moon on a stick will do for them so it's time to look at finding consensus elsewhere. That may or may not be possible, in which case a second referendum seems the only solution. Just ploughing forward hoping to make enough tweaks to appease the fringe of her party isn't good enough.


Indeed. She's just running up a blind alley at the moment, hoping the hard-liners (or enough of Labour and the others) will blink first.

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