| Latest Brexit position 08:11 - Aug 20 with 7353 views | Herbivore |
The backstop has to go, although we acknowledge we need something in Ireland to avoid a hard border but we're not sure what, but we're willing to work at it and might be up for making certain legal commitments that aren't the backstop. Glad we've cleared that up. Surely this is all about looking willing to do a deal so that he can blame the EU when we don't end up with one? It's just not serious and sums up the state of our PM and his government.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49402840 |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:19 - Aug 20 with 3124 views | Steve_M |
Given Johnson's insistence on maintaining May's three red lines then the only way he can do that is by re-badging May's crap deal. An open border between the two parts of Ireland is not compatible with leaving the single market and customs union.
The only other thing that can work is for regulatory divergence across the Irish Sea which is why the DUP's embrace of Brexit is so bizarrely short-sighted. |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:23 - Aug 20 with 3108 views | DanTheMan |
Well no it's not serious. I don't think it's supposed to be serious. It's just supposed to be soundbites so that when we do leave without a deal we can continue our tried and tested tradition of blaming everything on the EU.
It'll probably continue to work. |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:24 - Aug 20 with 3102 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:19 - Aug 20 by Steve_M |
Given Johnson's insistence on maintaining May's three red lines then the only way he can do that is by re-badging May's crap deal. An open border between the two parts of Ireland is not compatible with leaving the single market and customs union.
The only other thing that can work is for regulatory divergence across the Irish Sea which is why the DUP's embrace of Brexit is so bizarrely short-sighted. |
It's a circle that really can't be squared. Even if we take away regulatory alignment, how can we have a UK border that is open to free movement when we are looking to end free movement? Either we need to check people coming in at the border or we essentially create a new border in the Irish Sea. Otherwise anyone from the EU can enter the UK freely using Ireland as a back door. There is no way to have a land border with the EU that doesn't necessitate any physical checks at all unless we are willing to treat NI differently. At some point it is the UK that has to budge, we can't rule out a border in Ireland, a border in the Irish Sea AND demand an end to free movement and complete withdrawal from the customs union. Those red lines are incompatible and always have been. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:27 - Aug 20 with 3092 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:23 - Aug 20 by DanTheMan |
Well no it's not serious. I don't think it's supposed to be serious. It's just supposed to be soundbites so that when we do leave without a deal we can continue our tried and tested tradition of blaming everything on the EU.
It'll probably continue to work. |
Oh it'll work. The Telegraph, Mail and Sun cover a huge readership between them and are essentially pro-Boris, anti-EU propaganda sheets now. There's not even any pretense at providing balanced, decent journalism anymore. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:33 - Aug 20 with 3073 views | homer_123 |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:27 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
Oh it'll work. The Telegraph, Mail and Sun cover a huge readership between them and are essentially pro-Boris, anti-EU propaganda sheets now. There's not even any pretense at providing balanced, decent journalism anymore. |
'There's not even any pretense at providing balanced, decent journalism anymore.'
That's been the case long before now. |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:35 - Aug 20 with 3065 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:33 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
'There's not even any pretense at providing balanced, decent journalism anymore.'
That's been the case long before now. |
The Telegraph has, at times, at least pretended it's still part of the quality press. It doesn't even seem to be bothering with that now. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:43 - Aug 20 with 3050 views | Guthrum |
Perhaps we can get Donald Trump to buy Northern Ireland instead of Greenland? Would solve the problem. |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:49 - Aug 20 with 3030 views | Herbivore |
I've read it. It's a load of toss, isn't it? Meaningless soundbites for the press and naff all of substance. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 08:58 - Aug 20 with 3004 views | midastouch |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:49 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
I've read it. It's a load of toss, isn't it? Meaningless soundbites for the press and naff all of substance. |
I can't imagine the EU are likely to roll over at the demands. I could however see some concessions possibly at the 11th hour but I can't see the EU budging on some of the key points so it all looks likely to run into the buffers. It's a game of high-stakes brinkmanship and I'm not quite sure how serious the Government are. Both sides seem woefully prepared for a no-deal.
How concerned are you? Do you think this is a game of bluff and Boris will be forced to blink if the EU hang tough? Also, are you stocking up on extra food supplies for example (just in case)? |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:05 - Aug 20 with 2968 views | homer_123 |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:58 - Aug 20 by midastouch |
I can't imagine the EU are likely to roll over at the demands. I could however see some concessions possibly at the 11th hour but I can't see the EU budging on some of the key points so it all looks likely to run into the buffers. It's a game of high-stakes brinkmanship and I'm not quite sure how serious the Government are. Both sides seem woefully prepared for a no-deal.
How concerned are you? Do you think this is a game of bluff and Boris will be forced to blink if the EU hang tough? Also, are you stocking up on extra food supplies for example (just in case)? |
In some respects using No Deal as a bargaining chip is sensible - the issue, however, is it's too late in the day now.
The EU can still, clearly, see that within the UK there are attempts to stop No Deal from happening - therefore - it's a rather moot point now.
Interestingly, the Ireland issue does offer some more scope and movement I feel but I am unconvinced that the EU will budge at all - they appear to have their ducks lined up far better than we do - they've got 20 odd countries to get an agreement, we can't managed between two internal political parties.
Even if no deal happens - there won't be food shortages or the need to stock pile.
I've said from the outset (way before the referendum took place) that we'll end up not leaving.
That could still happen but not until those wishing to make that happen come together....no sign of that happening soon though. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:05 - Aug 20 with 2965 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:58 - Aug 20 by midastouch |
I can't imagine the EU are likely to roll over at the demands. I could however see some concessions possibly at the 11th hour but I can't see the EU budging on some of the key points so it all looks likely to run into the buffers. It's a game of high-stakes brinkmanship and I'm not quite sure how serious the Government are. Both sides seem woefully prepared for a no-deal.
How concerned are you? Do you think this is a game of bluff and Boris will be forced to blink if the EU hang tough? Also, are you stocking up on extra food supplies for example (just in case)? |
I really don't know how it will play out. I'm not sure what concessions you (or anyone) feels the EU can make regarding the Irish border. The backstop, or something like it, is essential to ensure there is no physical infrastructure at the Irish border. It can't just be done away with. If it is and we reach the end of the transition period without an agreement then what happens? Either a hard border, chaos, or both. It's not realistic to think it can just be scrapped. Plus the backstop was a concessoon to us to begin with and a further concession was made to include the whole UK. Where have we made concessions or budged on red lines?
I've not stockpiled anything as yet. I'm vegan so don't need to worry about meat or dairy produce, with the former likely to be an area that will take a hit if we leave with no deal. I still think we won't leave on the 31st most likely as I think parliament will find a way to prevent it. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:08 - Aug 20 with 2954 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:05 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
In some respects using No Deal as a bargaining chip is sensible - the issue, however, is it's too late in the day now.
The EU can still, clearly, see that within the UK there are attempts to stop No Deal from happening - therefore - it's a rather moot point now.
Interestingly, the Ireland issue does offer some more scope and movement I feel but I am unconvinced that the EU will budge at all - they appear to have their ducks lined up far better than we do - they've got 20 odd countries to get an agreement, we can't managed between two internal political parties.
Even if no deal happens - there won't be food shortages or the need to stock pile.
I've said from the outset (way before the referendum took place) that we'll end up not leaving.
That could still happen but not until those wishing to make that happen come together....no sign of that happening soon though. |
No deal is a poor bargaining chip since it's a far worse outcome for us than it is for the EU.
What makes you think there won't be food shortages if there's a no deal? The civil service and the food industry disagree with that assessment. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:14 - Aug 20 with 2941 views | homer_123 |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:08 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
No deal is a poor bargaining chip since it's a far worse outcome for us than it is for the EU.
What makes you think there won't be food shortages if there's a no deal? The civil service and the food industry disagree with that assessment. |
Because I'm realistic and tend to take into account multiple sources of information, whilst also using the information and knowledge I receive from clients that we work with.
People seem to be under the impression the shelves will be empty and prices will soar to Zimbabwean proportions. That's not going to happen.
Yes, a no deal, would be painful short term, I don't think anyone is saying or thinking otherwise but it's not like everything will stop or cease. Anyone with a modicum of business sense and knowledge understands that business will continue regardless.
Like you, I don't think no deal will happen. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:17 - Aug 20 with 2931 views | midastouch |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:05 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
I really don't know how it will play out. I'm not sure what concessions you (or anyone) feels the EU can make regarding the Irish border. The backstop, or something like it, is essential to ensure there is no physical infrastructure at the Irish border. It can't just be done away with. If it is and we reach the end of the transition period without an agreement then what happens? Either a hard border, chaos, or both. It's not realistic to think it can just be scrapped. Plus the backstop was a concessoon to us to begin with and a further concession was made to include the whole UK. Where have we made concessions or budged on red lines?
I've not stockpiled anything as yet. I'm vegan so don't need to worry about meat or dairy produce, with the former likely to be an area that will take a hit if we leave with no deal. I still think we won't leave on the 31st most likely as I think parliament will find a way to prevent it. |
Rory Stewart is back from his summer walking holiday so I imagine he'll throw his weight behind getting Parliament to try and stop a no deal. He seems more of a unifying force than some of the other options so he might stand a better chance than some of the others. But they do need to understand "united we stand, divided we fall". Also, I'm not sure how much Corbyn's heart is in it. They obviously need him to call a no confidence vote but I'm not sure if he'd be prepared to then subsequently line up behind anybody else.
I'd be surprised if this goes through in 70 or however many days it is till the deadline, as there seems way too much unresolved complexity up in the air, but at the same time I would never say never. If you look at the odds of a no deal with the bookmakers they have been reducing for example but that might be based purely on the weight of money going down rather than any greater insight than the rest of us.
Going to be an interesting and potentially very turbulent few weeks / months ahead...
Hold tight! | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:19 - Aug 20 with 2922 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:14 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
Because I'm realistic and tend to take into account multiple sources of information, whilst also using the information and knowledge I receive from clients that we work with.
People seem to be under the impression the shelves will be empty and prices will soar to Zimbabwean proportions. That's not going to happen.
Yes, a no deal, would be painful short term, I don't think anyone is saying or thinking otherwise but it's not like everything will stop or cease. Anyone with a modicum of business sense and knowledge understands that business will continue regardless.
Like you, I don't think no deal will happen. |
You've moved from saying there won't be any food shortages - contrary to the civil service and food industry, who I'm assuming know their onions - to saying the shelves won't be empty and we won't see Zimbabwe style inflation. I agree with the latter but that's not the same as the former. Some food produce will be in short supply, at least in the short term, to the extent that temporary rationing has been mooted. This is from the government's own analysis. Nobody is saying the world will end but you seem keen to downplay the impact without much in the way of supporting evidence. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:23 - Aug 20 with 2898 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:17 - Aug 20 by midastouch |
Rory Stewart is back from his summer walking holiday so I imagine he'll throw his weight behind getting Parliament to try and stop a no deal. He seems more of a unifying force than some of the other options so he might stand a better chance than some of the others. But they do need to understand "united we stand, divided we fall". Also, I'm not sure how much Corbyn's heart is in it. They obviously need him to call a no confidence vote but I'm not sure if he'd be prepared to then subsequently line up behind anybody else.
I'd be surprised if this goes through in 70 or however many days it is till the deadline, as there seems way too much unresolved complexity up in the air, but at the same time I would never say never. If you look at the odds of a no deal with the bookmakers they have been reducing for example but that might be based purely on the weight of money going down rather than any greater insight than the rest of us.
Going to be an interesting and potentially very turbulent few weeks / months ahead...
Hold tight! |
It's like watching a car crash in slow motion at the minute. I'm struggling to see any good outcome for the UK from this. Even if we end up somehow remaining, which is the best outcome economically and for me personally, the divisions in the country have been laid bare and our politicians have been shown up on an international stage as morally bankrupt incompetents. I think we need a drastic shake up. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:24 - Aug 20 with 2890 views | homer_123 |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:19 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
You've moved from saying there won't be any food shortages - contrary to the civil service and food industry, who I'm assuming know their onions - to saying the shelves won't be empty and we won't see Zimbabwe style inflation. I agree with the latter but that's not the same as the former. Some food produce will be in short supply, at least in the short term, to the extent that temporary rationing has been mooted. This is from the government's own analysis. Nobody is saying the world will end but you seem keen to downplay the impact without much in the way of supporting evidence. |
The information offered by the Civil Service is worse case scenario - as is the information supplied by the food industry.
There 'could' be shortages - is the information provided - not there absolutely, definitely will be. So why are you so sure there will be? | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:29 - Aug 20 with 2878 views | Mugwump |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:14 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
Because I'm realistic and tend to take into account multiple sources of information, whilst also using the information and knowledge I receive from clients that we work with.
People seem to be under the impression the shelves will be empty and prices will soar to Zimbabwean proportions. That's not going to happen.
Yes, a no deal, would be painful short term, I don't think anyone is saying or thinking otherwise but it's not like everything will stop or cease. Anyone with a modicum of business sense and knowledge understands that business will continue regardless.
Like you, I don't think no deal will happen. |
I agree with a lot of that. The medicine thing is madness, people are stockpiling drugs in case there is a shortage - thus creating a shortage.
I just want the whole thing over, we haven’t been able to govern the country for four years now as Brexit has taken all of our time.
My biggest question is who is going to erect a hard border - as everyone has said they won’t. |  | | |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:31 - Aug 20 with 2871 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Latest Brexit position on 08:24 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
It's a circle that really can't be squared. Even if we take away regulatory alignment, how can we have a UK border that is open to free movement when we are looking to end free movement? Either we need to check people coming in at the border or we essentially create a new border in the Irish Sea. Otherwise anyone from the EU can enter the UK freely using Ireland as a back door. There is no way to have a land border with the EU that doesn't necessitate any physical checks at all unless we are willing to treat NI differently. At some point it is the UK that has to budge, we can't rule out a border in Ireland, a border in the Irish Sea AND demand an end to free movement and complete withdrawal from the customs union. Those red lines are incompatible and always have been. |
The current situation is much as it was when A50 letter was submitted. Had May been a committed leave r this would have been resolved ages ago.
The biggest problem has always been the EU refusal to enter into trade negotiations until after we have left the EU.
By being weak and allowing the EU to fanny about over the island of Ireland issues May has been compiisate and aided the EU in their dishonourable tactics. In truth the only reason why I voted remain as could see this coming. |  |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:47 - Aug 20 with 2828 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:24 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
The information offered by the Civil Service is worse case scenario - as is the information supplied by the food industry.
There 'could' be shortages - is the information provided - not there absolutely, definitely will be. So why are you so sure there will be? |
It's not worst case scenario, that is how it's being spun. These are credible risks in the event of no deal. I am sure they are likely to happen in the event of no deal because there is no possible way that no deal doesn't disrupt the supply chain, particularly of fresh produce that we source from the EU. We import a significant amount of produce from the EU, to think that won't suffer disruption leading to some shortages if we leave in a disorderly way is incredibly naive. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:48 - Aug 20 with 2825 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:31 - Aug 20 by Pinewoodblue |
The current situation is much as it was when A50 letter was submitted. Had May been a committed leave r this would have been resolved ages ago.
The biggest problem has always been the EU refusal to enter into trade negotiations until after we have left the EU.
By being weak and allowing the EU to fanny about over the island of Ireland issues May has been compiisate and aided the EU in their dishonourable tactics. In truth the only reason why I voted remain as could see this coming. |
That's utter nonsense. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:49 - Aug 20 with 2820 views | Herbivore |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:29 - Aug 20 by Mugwump |
I agree with a lot of that. The medicine thing is madness, people are stockpiling drugs in case there is a shortage - thus creating a shortage.
I just want the whole thing over, we haven’t been able to govern the country for four years now as Brexit has taken all of our time.
My biggest question is who is going to erect a hard border - as everyone has said they won’t. |
The good news is that whether we leave with or without a deal we have a number of years of protracted trade negotiations to come, so Brexit will dominate for a long while yet. | |
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:49 - Aug 20 with 2820 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:14 - Aug 20 by homer_123 |
Because I'm realistic and tend to take into account multiple sources of information, whilst also using the information and knowledge I receive from clients that we work with.
People seem to be under the impression the shelves will be empty and prices will soar to Zimbabwean proportions. That's not going to happen.
Yes, a no deal, would be painful short term, I don't think anyone is saying or thinking otherwise but it's not like everything will stop or cease. Anyone with a modicum of business sense and knowledge understands that business will continue regardless.
Like you, I don't think no deal will happen. |
Good post.
No sincere preparations for a no deal Brexit will happen in advance of October 31st. So we know it's not going to happen and there's no point fearing a Zimbabwe like scenario no matter what fear mongering experts in the press want to generate.
The story will most likely pan out as follows.
In the red, white and blue corner we have our crazy floppy-haired toff fighting for the rights of the average independent-minded Brit. Hooray!
In the golden star corner we have the inflexible, unelected, steamroller of a multistate monolith, the EU. Boo!
Will plucky David stand up and force Goliath to budge 2.54cm?
Round 1
No one's budging despite honest Blighty's old-fashioned appeals to fair play.
Rounds 2-11
See round 1
Round 12
Well, stalemate looks inevitable as we enter the final 10 seconds.
Wait... what's this?
A concession of sorts from the EU.
And Boris thinks he's got it.
The Euros are looking a little crest-fallen.
The Brexiteers are looking a little confused, the remainers look happy. Half a billion European citizens have slept through this monumental moment in British history.
Britain are out of Europe!
I repeat, the UK are still in Europe.
A win for everyone.
A win for democracy.
Boris for King of Europe, forever!
EDIT
Herbivore downvoted this because he suffers from an increasingly common, yet to date incurable condition called choris chioumor. Sufferers of this condition have the right to take as much offense over light-hearted matters as they wish.
#BackstopSchmackstop [Post edited 20 Aug 2019 11:42]
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| Latest Brexit position on 09:55 - Aug 20 with 2797 views | homer_123 |
| Latest Brexit position on 09:47 - Aug 20 by Herbivore |
It's not worst case scenario, that is how it's being spun. These are credible risks in the event of no deal. I am sure they are likely to happen in the event of no deal because there is no possible way that no deal doesn't disrupt the supply chain, particularly of fresh produce that we source from the EU. We import a significant amount of produce from the EU, to think that won't suffer disruption leading to some shortages if we leave in a disorderly way is incredibly naive. |
To think that the country will be at its knees due to a shortage of lettuce is equally naive. | |
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