| Betting variables 15:28 - Aug 26 with 8526 views | backinbeige |
My friends have developed quite a successful spreadsheet for building accumulators.
They have to input the results each week, but then the spreadsheet takes the previous few years results that they’ve been inputting and works out stuff like avg amount of goals that teams are scoring at home and conceding away, and if the home team that week is scoring more than avg over the past few games, and away team conceding more than the league avg they lump on a home win. It does a few other bits too along those lines that takes into account quality of the next opposition rather than just the previous. Bit nerdy, but they’re a few thousand pounds up so not the worst way to spend your time.
I’ve just quit my job and am whiling away a three month notice period in the office, so I’m going to try and put something together myself.
What would you suggest are the main factors to look out for?
- Amount of goals home team has been scoring more than the league average vs away team conceding
- How a team did against the team that came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc last year. Some teams seem to unexpectedly do well against the top teams and lose against the bottom teams.
- How many points a team gained each week last season (0.4, 1.8, 2.3 etc) or has gained over the previous 10 games to give an idea of the relative quality of each team. If they’re within 0.5 of each other then it might be a draw, if not then a home/away win.
I’m happy to share the spreadsheet once (if) I’ve put it together with anyone who suggests a factor to include. |  |
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| Betting variables on 15:31 - Aug 26 with 4260 views | J2BLUE |
I don't like that kind of thing. Look at a club like Chelsea. Last few seasons they've had Hazard pulling the strings. Suddenly they have a new manager, youngsters being thrown in and no Hazard. I don't see the relevance of their results over the last two years to their fixtures now. |  |
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| The thing is..... on 15:32 - Aug 26 with 4261 views | Bloots |
….the bookmakers buy this type of data on a massive scale, a scale most of us could only dream of.
Coincidently the biggest of these data gathering companies is, I believe, the business that is trying to buy Bury FC.
The bookies therefore, should always have the edge and their odds are perhaps the most important factor to look at.
So, I'll say add in the bookies odds to your calcs.
Cheers. |  |
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| Betting variables on 15:36 - Aug 26 with 4248 views | clive_baker |
Personally, I would say gambling on football is a mugs game and you're better off spending your 3 month notice period doing something more meaningful & fulfilling. |  |
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| Betting variables on 15:40 - Aug 26 with 4226 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 15:36 - Aug 26 by clive_baker |
Personally, I would say gambling on football is a mugs game and you're better off spending your 3 month notice period doing something more meaningful & fulfilling. |
'I don't do it and therefore it's bad' | |
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| Betting variables on 15:40 - Aug 26 with 4231 views | backinbeige |
Yeah the whole point of this is to put a numerical value against each team getting a result against each other...which is exactly what odds are that you get from bookmakers. The ones to look out for are when the odds seem to be priced wrongly, or if you can give yourself more reassurance when picking bets out.
There’s going to be other factors you can’t account for- injuries to a key player, a team ‘doing a Leicester’, Mourinho jumping out of a laundry basket at half time, Man United’s crippling inability to score penalties, etc. Common sense when not to blindly follow the spreadsheet comes into play then.
But for the sake of a £1 accumulator each week and a dwindling amount of work to do between now and November I’m happy to put something together. | |
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| Betting variables on 15:42 - Aug 26 with 4216 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 15:40 - Aug 26 by backinbeige |
Yeah the whole point of this is to put a numerical value against each team getting a result against each other...which is exactly what odds are that you get from bookmakers. The ones to look out for are when the odds seem to be priced wrongly, or if you can give yourself more reassurance when picking bets out.
There’s going to be other factors you can’t account for- injuries to a key player, a team ‘doing a Leicester’, Mourinho jumping out of a laundry basket at half time, Man United’s crippling inability to score penalties, etc. Common sense when not to blindly follow the spreadsheet comes into play then.
But for the sake of a £1 accumulator each week and a dwindling amount of work to do between now and November I’m happy to put something together. |
Do you have many accounts with different bookmakers? | |
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| Betting variables on 15:46 - Aug 26 with 4201 views | clive_baker |
| Betting variables on 15:40 - Aug 26 by J2BLUE |
'I don't do it and therefore it's bad' |
Where did I say I didn't do it? You know you're very quick to make incorrect assumptions sometimes. | |
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| Betting variables on 15:47 - Aug 26 with 4185 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 15:46 - Aug 26 by clive_baker |
Where did I say I didn't do it? You know you're very quick to make incorrect assumptions sometimes. |
Fair enough, I take that back.
You can make good money betting on football though so your reply was a bit closed minded. | |
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| Betting variables on 15:52 - Aug 26 with 4174 views | clive_baker |
| Betting variables on 15:47 - Aug 26 by J2BLUE |
Fair enough, I take that back.
You can make good money betting on football though so your reply was a bit closed minded. |
It's because I've done it that I feel compelled to give such advice to be honest. And yes, some people can make some money, but many more lose. If you're serious about analytics and investing, I don't think football is the place to do it. I would spread bet on equities personally. but that's just me. Having said that, if it's £1 a week on an acca it's not really an issue. I would just hate for it to become one for anyone that thinks they can beat the system with their Excel spreadsheet. | |
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| Betting variables on 15:56 - Aug 26 with 4156 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 15:52 - Aug 26 by clive_baker |
It's because I've done it that I feel compelled to give such advice to be honest. And yes, some people can make some money, but many more lose. If you're serious about analytics and investing, I don't think football is the place to do it. I would spread bet on equities personally. but that's just me. Having said that, if it's £1 a week on an acca it's not really an issue. I would just hate for it to become one for anyone that thinks they can beat the system with their Excel spreadsheet. |
I cannot recommend matched betting enough if you've never made a consistent return from betting. There is plenty of free money out there. | |
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| Betting variables on 16:01 - Aug 26 with 4140 views | factual_blue |
Amount of time it takes to get a pie at half-time. |  |
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| Betting variables on 16:05 - Aug 26 with 4130 views | backinbeige |
Jon Parkin retired | |
| RVRB: https://app.rvrb.one/channels/have-guitar-will-listen -
Listen to music when WFH, set your own music to DJ and find new recommendations from others |
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| Betting variables on 16:55 - Aug 26 with 4050 views | JamestownPrince |
Days since last game?
miles travelled |  | | |
| Betting variables on 17:23 - Aug 26 with 3990 views | SpruceMoose |
| Betting variables on 15:40 - Aug 26 by J2BLUE |
'I don't do it and therefore it's bad' |
'I do it and therefore will defend it whatever the cost to society' [Post edited 26 Aug 2019 17:23]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Betting variables on 17:28 - Aug 26 with 3963 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 17:23 - Aug 26 by SpruceMoose |
'I do it and therefore will defend it whatever the cost to society' [Post edited 26 Aug 2019 17:23]
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That's simply not true is it? I have supported lots of ideas to manage the industry. I have plenty of ideas based on my time gambling of how they could make the gambling industry much safer and fairer. | |
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| Betting variables on 17:30 - Aug 26 with 3954 views | yorkshire |
| Betting variables on 15:42 - Aug 26 by J2BLUE |
Do you have many accounts with different bookmakers? |
This is a very good point - start winning and bookies will stop taking your bets
I have friends who work for major bookies and have done for 20 or so years - they are always ahead of this type of info - and those that working in book making now say that 90% of the work is done for them when it comes to pricing up games. There are very few edges you will have on the major games as they will know far more than you do
You may have some success lower down the leagues and in low class European games - but then they will just stop taking bets from you or limit you to 20 quid a bet
Some of these guys make a decent amount of money gambling in their spare time but very few have contemplated going full time - the long term risk of it over paid employment is just not worth it
I used to gamble heavily - and my problem was discipline - I would get the good bets in - but then it would come to something on the TV or some spare time and I would start gambling irresponsibility so gave it all back and more
If you have no dependents and believe you have the discipline then give it a go but I doubt you will be doing it for more than a couple of months | | | |
| Betting variables on 17:31 - Aug 26 with 3946 views | SpruceMoose |
| Betting variables on 17:28 - Aug 26 by J2BLUE |
That's simply not true is it? I have supported lots of ideas to manage the industry. I have plenty of ideas based on my time gambling of how they could make the gambling industry much safer and fairer. |
"That's simply not true is it? "
That did not appear to be a concern of yours when you made your initial comment...
Just sayin' like. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Betting variables on 17:35 - Aug 26 with 3928 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 17:31 - Aug 26 by SpruceMoose |
"That's simply not true is it? "
That did not appear to be a concern of yours when you made your initial comment...
Just sayin' like. |
I did take it back. I bet you won't though.
Just sayin' like. | |
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| Betting variables on 17:37 - Aug 26 with 3921 views | SpruceMoose |
| Betting variables on 17:35 - Aug 26 by J2BLUE |
I did take it back. I bet you won't though.
Just sayin' like. |
You so salty these days J2. Lashing out all over the shop. You should cheer up. I thought you'd be well happy living the dream as a self employed gambling man with the secret loophole the bookies hate!?
Oh well. Lunchbreak over. Toodles! | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Betting variables on 17:40 - Aug 26 with 3907 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 17:37 - Aug 26 by SpruceMoose |
You so salty these days J2. Lashing out all over the shop. You should cheer up. I thought you'd be well happy living the dream as a self employed gambling man with the secret loophole the bookies hate!?
Oh well. Lunchbreak over. Toodles! |
You're putting words in my mouth now. I never said it was a secret loophole or that the bookies hate it.
I'm flattered that you are so interested in my life. | |
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| Betting variables on 17:41 - Aug 26 with 3901 views | The_Romford_Blue |
I’m still at a loss on football betting (although I’m about level now in my lifetime now which is a nice feeling) but the key change I made on the horses and on the football (the latter has decreased a yearly loss) is to avoid the stupid multiples.
I do a tenner a week on a Saturday morning on an accumulator but no more trebles from 9 selections like last season. If I really fancy a football result, I’ll have a decent single on it but otherwise sticking to what I know. Which is horse racing and Romford Friday Greyhounds. I would love to know my Romford Friday greyhounds profit/loss over the years. It would be well into 4-figure profit but I’d love to know when it touches 10k profit. Probably in the next two/three years.
My advice on this football idea is to trial it for 12 months first. I have something I use for a Friday dogs which is my angle and it took me a fair few months before I was confident to start betting the angle. Once an angle is found, use your edge for as long as you can before they restrict you. Gambling is a game massively in the favour of the bookies. So when you get your edge, don’t share it with anyone. Share the bets, sure, but never the reasoning behind them. Because that is what you need to stay one step ahead of the bookies.
Good luck. |  |
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| Betting variables on 17:46 - Aug 26 with 3874 views | clive_baker |
| Betting variables on 17:41 - Aug 26 by The_Romford_Blue |
I’m still at a loss on football betting (although I’m about level now in my lifetime now which is a nice feeling) but the key change I made on the horses and on the football (the latter has decreased a yearly loss) is to avoid the stupid multiples.
I do a tenner a week on a Saturday morning on an accumulator but no more trebles from 9 selections like last season. If I really fancy a football result, I’ll have a decent single on it but otherwise sticking to what I know. Which is horse racing and Romford Friday Greyhounds. I would love to know my Romford Friday greyhounds profit/loss over the years. It would be well into 4-figure profit but I’d love to know when it touches 10k profit. Probably in the next two/three years.
My advice on this football idea is to trial it for 12 months first. I have something I use for a Friday dogs which is my angle and it took me a fair few months before I was confident to start betting the angle. Once an angle is found, use your edge for as long as you can before they restrict you. Gambling is a game massively in the favour of the bookies. So when you get your edge, don’t share it with anyone. Share the bets, sure, but never the reasoning behind them. Because that is what you need to stay one step ahead of the bookies.
Good luck. |
I thought you had a tenner on Town every week too? | |
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| Betting variables on 17:49 - Aug 26 with 3859 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Betting variables on 17:46 - Aug 26 by clive_baker |
I thought you had a tenner on Town every week too? |
I don’t count that. It’s a trial year. It’s a £460 investment over the season I had put aside to do this.
For what it’s worth, I never put the actual tenner on us Saturday as we were 1/14. I have included it in my figures though. A 71p profit.
Currently £5.71 up from the 5 matches played. | |
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| Betting variables on 17:53 - Aug 26 with 3835 views | GrandadDel |
| Betting variables on 17:49 - Aug 26 by The_Romford_Blue |
I don’t count that. It’s a trial year. It’s a £460 investment over the season I had put aside to do this.
For what it’s worth, I never put the actual tenner on us Saturday as we were 1/14. I have included it in my figures though. A 71p profit.
Currently £5.71 up from the 5 matches played. |
gambling and investing are different things all together . | | | |
| Betting variables on 17:57 - Aug 26 with 3825 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting variables on 17:53 - Aug 26 by GrandadDel |
gambling and investing are different things all together . |
I see your point but if you buy a share that doesn't pay a dividend and hope it goes up you are gambling surely? | |
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