| Brexit today 08:34 - Oct 21 with 3273 views | Herbivore |
What do we think will happen today then chaps? The government are going to try to pretend Saturday didn't happen and push for another vote. My money is on this not being allowed by the speaker as you can't bring the same motion back twice in the same parliamentary session. Not sure what then happens next but most commentators are saying that if the government start moving the bill it's going to get amended to death. |  |
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| Brexit today on 09:01 - Oct 21 with 2623 views | bluelagos |
If the vote is allowed on an unamended basis, that would be contrary to Saturday's vote, so I cant see Berclow allowing an unamended bill be put to a vote.
Agree it will be amended thus frustrating Boris once again.
We've also got a court ruling of interest in Scotland around the legality of his letter(s) to the EU. Think he'll win that one.
Edit: Joanne Cherry (SNP) just on tv saying her lawyers wont push the court, BJ looking ok on that one. [Post edited 21 Oct 2019 9:12]
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| Brexit today on 09:03 - Oct 21 with 2619 views | Swansea_Blue |
Absolutely no idea!
This long thread seems a thorough and logical prediction on the challenges facing BoZo this week (you may well have seen it already):
What I do know is if Bercow prevents Boris bringing forward another vote, the pro-Brexit press and commentators will whipping up their rabid support to scream about treachery and denying the will of the people. [Post edited 21 Oct 2019 9:13]
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| Brexit today on 09:13 - Oct 21 with 2600 views | Pinewoodblue |
Games will continue to be played in Westminster.
It is even possible that the Queen's Speech will be voted down should the DUP vote against.
Labour will demand a General Election, but not yet as that would mean leaving without a deal next week.
Speaker may permit another meaningful vote, he allowed May a second chance. |  |
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| Brexit today on 09:16 - Oct 21 with 2583 views | Herbivore |
| Brexit today on 09:13 - Oct 21 by Pinewoodblue |
Games will continue to be played in Westminster.
It is even possible that the Queen's Speech will be voted down should the DUP vote against.
Labour will demand a General Election, but not yet as that would mean leaving without a deal next week.
Speaker may permit another meaningful vote, he allowed May a second chance. |
May's deal changed between the votes though so it's not the same scenario. | |
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| Brexit today on 09:20 - Oct 21 with 2570 views | Swansea_Blue |
One thing we can be sure of is that Francois will be ready for whatever devious plan those pesky remoaners come up with...
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| Brexit today on 11:15 - Oct 21 with 2515 views | ZedRodgers |
1. Bercow rules MV out of order
2. WAB tabled
3. Amendment for Customs Union passes
4. Amendment for second referendum fails
5. Government pull WAB / vote it down
6. Extension granted by EU
7. General election |  |
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| Brexit today on 11:17 - Oct 21 with 2502 views | No9 |
| Brexit today on 11:15 - Oct 21 by ZedRodgers |
1. Bercow rules MV out of order
2. WAB tabled
3. Amendment for Customs Union passes
4. Amendment for second referendum fails
5. Government pull WAB / vote it down
6. Extension granted by EU
7. General election |
You missed out-
Johnson lies again |  | | |
| Brexit today on 11:23 - Oct 21 with 2488 views | Guthrum |
| Brexit today on 11:15 - Oct 21 by ZedRodgers |
1. Bercow rules MV out of order
2. WAB tabled
3. Amendment for Customs Union passes
4. Amendment for second referendum fails
5. Government pull WAB / vote it down
6. Extension granted by EU
7. General election |
There could be amendments tabled from the other side, too - such as something from the DUP, possibly supported by Labour and others with the intention of wrecking the deal |  |
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| Brexit today on 11:25 - Oct 21 with 2477 views | Herbivore |
| Brexit today on 11:15 - Oct 21 by ZedRodgers |
1. Bercow rules MV out of order
2. WAB tabled
3. Amendment for Customs Union passes
4. Amendment for second referendum fails
5. Government pull WAB / vote it down
6. Extension granted by EU
7. General election |
Basically a continuation of the mess for several more months. | |
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| Brexit today on 11:27 - Oct 21 with 2468 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Brexit today on 11:17 - Oct 21 by No9 |
You missed out-
Johnson lies again |
That's a cross-cutting theme  | |
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| Brexit today on 11:29 - Oct 21 with 2459 views | footers |
| Brexit today on 11:25 - Oct 21 by Herbivore |
Basically a continuation of the mess for several more months. |
Things have got so bad that I now respect Oliver Letwin. What has Brexit done to us. |  |
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| Brexit today on 11:34 - Oct 21 with 2445 views | Guthrum |
| Brexit today on 11:25 - Oct 21 by Herbivore |
Basically a continuation of the mess for several more months. |
Part of the problem is that Johnson (or his advisers) do not really comprehend the British political system. Yes, it is adversarial, but you can't stir up a hornets nest and fight it from a weak position.
Hving been in existence for so long, most of the seemingly cunning procedural loopholes have been spotted and closed. Plus with the Speaker presiding, the Government does not have full control over what goes on. It's designed to quash authoritarianism (after the experiences of the 17th and early 18th centuries) and works best by constructing networks of support, not alienating as many people as possible. | |
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| Brexit today on 11:53 - Oct 21 with 2415 views | Herbivore |
| Brexit today on 11:34 - Oct 21 by Guthrum |
Part of the problem is that Johnson (or his advisers) do not really comprehend the British political system. Yes, it is adversarial, but you can't stir up a hornets nest and fight it from a weak position.
Hving been in existence for so long, most of the seemingly cunning procedural loopholes have been spotted and closed. Plus with the Speaker presiding, the Government does not have full control over what goes on. It's designed to quash authoritarianism (after the experiences of the 17th and early 18th centuries) and works best by constructing networks of support, not alienating as many people as possible. |
Yep, his adversarial approach and his determination to govern for a faction of the party and its support rather than for the country has really ended up hamstringing him. He still seems somewhat blind to that though and is just quite angry that people won't simply do what he wants them to do.
I really think another GE, which would be the third in just over 4 years, is a terrible idea. The country is divided and whilst Johnson may win the most seats a majority could be out of reach and we won't be any further forward. There's also the issue that he could win a majority in FTPT with 30% of the vote and push his Brexit through even if a popular majority has voted for parties opposed to his version of Brexit or, indeed, to Brexit full stop. If the public are being asked to vote it should first be about Brexit and then have a GE to move the country forward thereafter. | |
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| Brexit today on 12:03 - Oct 21 with 2392 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Brexit today on 11:53 - Oct 21 by Herbivore |
Yep, his adversarial approach and his determination to govern for a faction of the party and its support rather than for the country has really ended up hamstringing him. He still seems somewhat blind to that though and is just quite angry that people won't simply do what he wants them to do.
I really think another GE, which would be the third in just over 4 years, is a terrible idea. The country is divided and whilst Johnson may win the most seats a majority could be out of reach and we won't be any further forward. There's also the issue that he could win a majority in FTPT with 30% of the vote and push his Brexit through even if a popular majority has voted for parties opposed to his version of Brexit or, indeed, to Brexit full stop. If the public are being asked to vote it should first be about Brexit and then have a GE to move the country forward thereafter. |
Where do we go from here? | |
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| Brexit today on 12:06 - Oct 21 with 2386 views | Darth_Koont |
| Brexit today on 11:53 - Oct 21 by Herbivore |
Yep, his adversarial approach and his determination to govern for a faction of the party and its support rather than for the country has really ended up hamstringing him. He still seems somewhat blind to that though and is just quite angry that people won't simply do what he wants them to do.
I really think another GE, which would be the third in just over 4 years, is a terrible idea. The country is divided and whilst Johnson may win the most seats a majority could be out of reach and we won't be any further forward. There's also the issue that he could win a majority in FTPT with 30% of the vote and push his Brexit through even if a popular majority has voted for parties opposed to his version of Brexit or, indeed, to Brexit full stop. If the public are being asked to vote it should first be about Brexit and then have a GE to move the country forward thereafter. |
It would be good to have Brexit dribble away before a GE.
Either through the realisation that there's no possibility of anyone agreeing on how we should leave (which was always the problem with meaningless phrases like Brexit means Brexit and the Leave campaign's lie that they could support a soft Brexit).
Or failing that by having another referendum. In that scenario, it would be very interesting which Leave deal would be put against Remain. I think it's telling that a No Deal and probably Boris's deal would have little to no chance of winning.
Without us getting to grips with that mess and being truthful about where we are, a GE will become all about Brexit when the state of our society and the environment are arguably far more pressing. I accept that Brexit has an effect on them but these were issues before we went off on this nationalistic and ideological egg chase. |  |
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| Brexit today on 12:11 - Oct 21 with 2368 views | Herbivore |
| Brexit today on 12:03 - Oct 21 by Pinewoodblue |
Where do we go from here? |
I thought my thoughts on that were pretty evident? Second referendum on Johnson's deal versus remain, followed swiftly by a GE. | |
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| Brexit today on 12:17 - Oct 21 with 2346 views | TractorWood |
| Brexit today on 11:53 - Oct 21 by Herbivore |
Yep, his adversarial approach and his determination to govern for a faction of the party and its support rather than for the country has really ended up hamstringing him. He still seems somewhat blind to that though and is just quite angry that people won't simply do what he wants them to do.
I really think another GE, which would be the third in just over 4 years, is a terrible idea. The country is divided and whilst Johnson may win the most seats a majority could be out of reach and we won't be any further forward. There's also the issue that he could win a majority in FTPT with 30% of the vote and push his Brexit through even if a popular majority has voted for parties opposed to his version of Brexit or, indeed, to Brexit full stop. If the public are being asked to vote it should first be about Brexit and then have a GE to move the country forward thereafter. |
Agree. An election will achieve nothing. Apologies for the golf analogy but it's like missing a 2 foot putt on the last green to tie a tournament and then buying a new driver. |  |
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| Brexit today on 13:08 - Oct 21 with 2282 views | Guthrum |
| Brexit today on 11:53 - Oct 21 by Herbivore |
Yep, his adversarial approach and his determination to govern for a faction of the party and its support rather than for the country has really ended up hamstringing him. He still seems somewhat blind to that though and is just quite angry that people won't simply do what he wants them to do.
I really think another GE, which would be the third in just over 4 years, is a terrible idea. The country is divided and whilst Johnson may win the most seats a majority could be out of reach and we won't be any further forward. There's also the issue that he could win a majority in FTPT with 30% of the vote and push his Brexit through even if a popular majority has voted for parties opposed to his version of Brexit or, indeed, to Brexit full stop. If the public are being asked to vote it should first be about Brexit and then have a GE to move the country forward thereafter. |
The problem is, we can't really avoid having a General Election.
The Government currently does not have a majority in the House of Commons, therefore is unable to pass any legislation (even budgets or a Queen's Speech). They cannot prevent a united opposition from using SO24 to sieze control of the agenda. We effectively do not have a functioning government.
The only way to get around this without an election would be for Johnson to form a coalition/alliance/agreement with one or more other parties/independent MPs to give him the numbers. But nobody much trusts him any more, nor do very many in the House align with his policies.
A GE is the only way to potentially break the impasse. | |
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| Brexit today on 13:11 - Oct 21 with 2263 views | factual_blue |
| Brexit today on 11:34 - Oct 21 by Guthrum |
Part of the problem is that Johnson (or his advisers) do not really comprehend the British political system. Yes, it is adversarial, but you can't stir up a hornets nest and fight it from a weak position.
Hving been in existence for so long, most of the seemingly cunning procedural loopholes have been spotted and closed. Plus with the Speaker presiding, the Government does not have full control over what goes on. It's designed to quash authoritarianism (after the experiences of the 17th and early 18th centuries) and works best by constructing networks of support, not alienating as many people as possible. |
There's an article on The Independent website by an academic who specialises in game theory. Apparently cummings is a great fan of game theory, and uses it.
What the article points out in forensic detail is that cummings either doesn't understand game theory properly and/or is dreadful at applying it, and in particular he doesn't see MPs as part of the game.
Like most psychopaths, cummings is clever, but nowhere near as clever as he thinks. |  |
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| Brexit today on 13:14 - Oct 21 with 2253 views | factual_blue |
| Brexit today on 13:08 - Oct 21 by Guthrum |
The problem is, we can't really avoid having a General Election.
The Government currently does not have a majority in the House of Commons, therefore is unable to pass any legislation (even budgets or a Queen's Speech). They cannot prevent a united opposition from using SO24 to sieze control of the agenda. We effectively do not have a functioning government.
The only way to get around this without an election would be for Johnson to form a coalition/alliance/agreement with one or more other parties/independent MPs to give him the numbers. But nobody much trusts him any more, nor do very many in the House align with his policies.
A GE is the only way to potentially break the impasse. |
The downward arc of the capability of tory PMs - Cameron, May, boris - implies an absolute dunderhead like raaaab or failin' grayling next. | |
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| Brexit today on 13:22 - Oct 21 with 2222 views | factual_blue |
| Brexit today on 12:03 - Oct 21 by Pinewoodblue |
Where do we go from here? |
We become part of Denmark. | |
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| Brexit today on 13:22 - Oct 21 with 2219 views | footers |
| Brexit today on 13:22 - Oct 21 by factual_blue |
We become part of Denmark. |
Kristiansund? | |
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| Brexit today on 13:23 - Oct 21 with 2218 views | Guthrum |
| Brexit today on 13:22 - Oct 21 by factual_blue |
We become part of Denmark. |
There is, at least, precedent for that. | |
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| Brexit today on 13:26 - Oct 21 with 2205 views | factual_blue |
| Brexit today on 13:23 - Oct 21 by Guthrum |
There is, at least, precedent for that. |
Sandi Toksvig as Governor General. She's extremely bright and something like a starred first in Law from Cambridge.
And she would of course upset all the people who deserve to be upset. | |
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| Brexit today on 13:38 - Oct 21 with 2168 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Brexit today on 13:26 - Oct 21 by factual_blue |
Sandi Toksvig as Governor General. She's extremely bright and something like a starred first in Law from Cambridge.
And she would of course upset all the people who deserve to be upset. |
Dane Law, and move parliament to Mersea. | |
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