| Good on 13:55 - Dec 2 with 2464 views | ZedRodgers |
And the lead will keep shrinking |  |
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| Good on 13:58 - Dec 2 with 2443 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Good on 13:55 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
And the lead will keep shrinking |
I hope people are starting to wake up to Boris but I'm not holding my breath. |  |
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| Good on 13:59 - Dec 2 with 2433 views | itfcjoe |
| Good on 13:55 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
And the lead will keep shrinking |
Do you think there is time for it to shrink enough? Feels like election may come a week too early |  |
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| Good on 14:00 - Dec 2 with 2424 views | footers |
| Good on 13:58 - Dec 2 by BrixtonBlue |
I hope people are starting to wake up to Boris but I'm not holding my breath. |
Many women have woken up to him, many of them while he's been married. |  |
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| Good on 14:01 - Dec 2 with 2422 views | footers |
| Good on 13:59 - Dec 2 by itfcjoe |
Do you think there is time for it to shrink enough? Feels like election may come a week too early |
It is cold out. | |
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| Good on 14:05 - Dec 2 with 2392 views | itfcjoe |
| Good on 14:01 - Dec 2 by footers |
It is cold out. |
Is that good or bad though? I seem to read differing views on it | |
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| Good on 14:09 - Dec 2 with 2378 views | footers |
| Good on 14:05 - Dec 2 by itfcjoe |
Is that good or bad though? I seem to read differing views on it |
Just saying that the colder temps may help with poll shrinkage. Usually does with me anyway. | |
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| Good on 14:09 - Dec 2 with 2380 views | HARRY10 |
| Good on 13:58 - Dec 2 by BrixtonBlue |
I hope people are starting to wake up to Boris but I'm not holding my breath. |
I believe that we will see a repeat of 1997 where a number of high profile Tories are voted out byu tacvtical voting.
However their various defreats were only the icing on what was a fair certainty before the election.
A coalition of the progressive (non bigot) parties would be the best result.
Austerity, or basically cuts to public services, could then be addressed. It would ensure a much wider consensus would hold sway and we would have a government that looked to embrace the future, not cling to the past. |  | | |
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| Good on 14:15 - Dec 2 with 2346 views | ZedRodgers |
| Good on 13:59 - Dec 2 by itfcjoe |
Do you think there is time for it to shrink enough? Feels like election may come a week too early |
I'm confident of a hung parliament and optimistic of Labour being able to form a government with help from others.
The usual suspects will scoff at that but so far, it's panned out exactly how I expected it to. | |
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| Good on 14:19 - Dec 2 with 2329 views | BigManBlue |
| Good on 14:15 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
I'm confident of a hung parliament and optimistic of Labour being able to form a government with help from others.
The usual suspects will scoff at that but so far, it's panned out exactly how I expected it to. |
Hope you're right - fingers crossed the polls keep narrowing, and then on the 13th it turns out they all massively underestimated turnout from the under 40's (again). |  |
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| Good on 14:20 - Dec 2 with 2319 views | footers |
| Good on 14:15 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
I'm confident of a hung parliament and optimistic of Labour being able to form a government with help from others.
The usual suspects will scoff at that but so far, it's panned out exactly how I expected it to. |
We just have to keep positive, Zed :)
The train station was filled with Labour activists this AM handing out leaflets about the new fares and transport policy. Not sure the Tories ever do proper grassroots stuff like that, they're too complacent (read: arrogant). | |
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| Good on 14:26 - Dec 2 with 2290 views | ZedRodgers |
| Good on 14:19 - Dec 2 by BigManBlue |
Hope you're right - fingers crossed the polls keep narrowing, and then on the 13th it turns out they all massively underestimated turnout from the under 40's (again). |
That's the dream.
I think it's clear that there is a gigantic underestimation in current polling.
Kantar's model (which currently shows a +10% lead for the Tories) suggests that there will be reduced turnout from all age groups, except for 65+:
This baffles me.
YouGov and Survation's Tory lead cut to 8/9% and some other pollsters already predicting a hung parliament.
Game on. | |
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| Good on 14:28 - Dec 2 with 2273 views | chicoazul |
I can never decide if the TWTD Brains Trust think political polls are good or not. |  |
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| Good on 14:28 - Dec 2 with 2271 views | itfcjoe |
| Good on 14:26 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
That's the dream.
I think it's clear that there is a gigantic underestimation in current polling.
Kantar's model (which currently shows a +10% lead for the Tories) suggests that there will be reduced turnout from all age groups, except for 65+:
This baffles me.
YouGov and Survation's Tory lead cut to 8/9% and some other pollsters already predicting a hung parliament.
Game on. |
If that is true then the polls will be miles off - why will the 65+ vote go up by 10% in the winter? Plus 9 out of 10 getting out there and voting seems way OTT, a lot must struggle medically and a bad day would put pay to that too.
And the turnout seems so low for under 34? especially at the bottom end?
Where are these figures from? They just seem wrong | |
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| Good on 14:31 - Dec 2 with 2250 views | blueislander |
| Good on 14:28 - Dec 2 by chicoazul |
I can never decide if the TWTD Brains Trust think political polls are good or not. |
I think that depends on whether they bolster the chances of the party you support. | | | |
| Good on 14:33 - Dec 2 with 2248 views | J2BLUE |
I'll be sending my postal vote off tomorrow. For Labour. To be honest, none of my concerns about the Labour party have been answered but the Tories disgust me more by the day. I've always found it a bit odd when people claim to intensely dislike a politician but i'm beginning to understand with Johnson. He really is a c***.
Edit: Added a full stop [Post edited 2 Dec 2019 14:36]
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| Good on 14:35 - Dec 2 with 2232 views | ZedRodgers |
| Good on 14:20 - Dec 2 by footers |
We just have to keep positive, Zed :)
The train station was filled with Labour activists this AM handing out leaflets about the new fares and transport policy. Not sure the Tories ever do proper grassroots stuff like that, they're too complacent (read: arrogant). |
We do indeed Mr Foot.
And what a superb policy that is. Season ticket's reduced by 33% from January (are you watching Marcus Evans), saving commuters £1k per year. Free travel for under 16s.
The best thing about it IMO is the prospect of a London-esque zonal system nationwide, applicable across all forms public transport. Fares will literally become 'fair' as well as simple and affordable.
Just as train operators announce another fare increase of 2.7%. Perfect. Your choice voters. | |
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| Good on 14:35 - Dec 2 with 2225 views | BigManBlue |
| Good on 14:28 - Dec 2 by itfcjoe |
If that is true then the polls will be miles off - why will the 65+ vote go up by 10% in the winter? Plus 9 out of 10 getting out there and voting seems way OTT, a lot must struggle medically and a bad day would put pay to that too.
And the turnout seems so low for under 34? especially at the bottom end?
Where are these figures from? They just seem wrong |
I can't quite get my head around this either. Sure, there will be some variation, but I can't see huge numbers of young people suddenly being less engaged than they were two years ago... | |
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| Good on 14:37 - Dec 2 with 2205 views | itfcjoe |
| Good on 14:28 - Dec 2 by chicoazul |
I can never decide if the TWTD Brains Trust think political polls are good or not. |
Polls obviously tell you something, but any mathematical model is open to criticism and interpretation | |
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| Good on 14:39 - Dec 2 with 2184 views | footers |
| Good on 14:35 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
We do indeed Mr Foot.
And what a superb policy that is. Season ticket's reduced by 33% from January (are you watching Marcus Evans), saving commuters £1k per year. Free travel for under 16s.
The best thing about it IMO is the prospect of a London-esque zonal system nationwide, applicable across all forms public transport. Fares will literally become 'fair' as well as simple and affordable.
Just as train operators announce another fare increase of 2.7%. Perfect. Your choice voters. |
The icing on the cake was that the station was also shut due to overcrowding. Admittedly it's half-TfL/half-National Rail there, but what a nice way of underlining the problems commuters face every day, especially in light of yet more increases come Jan. We're humans, not sardines :)
Simpler ticketing would also be a very welcome and sensible idea. Something that most of Europe seems to do with ease (wonder why?). [Post edited 2 Dec 2019 14:39]
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| Good on 14:41 - Dec 2 with 2162 views | chicoazul |
| Good on 14:37 - Dec 2 by itfcjoe |
Polls obviously tell you something, but any mathematical model is open to criticism and interpretation |
I just think it's funny, that's all. | |
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| Good on 14:51 - Dec 2 with 2117 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Good on 14:26 - Dec 2 by ZedRodgers |
That's the dream.
I think it's clear that there is a gigantic underestimation in current polling.
Kantar's model (which currently shows a +10% lead for the Tories) suggests that there will be reduced turnout from all age groups, except for 65+:
This baffles me.
YouGov and Survation's Tory lead cut to 8/9% and some other pollsters already predicting a hung parliament.
Game on. |
Rather confused by that table, where was that sourced from? Just had a bit of a trawl on Kantar’s website and couldn’t find anything on those lines - last methodology data I could see was the below that looked rather different
https://www.kantar.com/public/download/documents/302/November+19+2019+tables.pdf
Certainly intrigued - as others have pointed out it seems rather far fetched so would put an even larger asterisk against their poll than normal |  |
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| Good on 14:53 - Dec 2 with 2104 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Good on 14:31 - Dec 2 by blueislander |
I think that depends on whether they bolster the chances of the party you support. |
I wonder if the OP has ever posted rather strong views about the reliability of polls?
On a serious note I expect the gap probably is closing - think it was always likely there would be a bit of a swing back as the ‘anyone but Tories’ sentiment gets into full swing | |
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| Good on 14:54 - Dec 2 with 2095 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Good on 14:33 - Dec 2 by J2BLUE |
I'll be sending my postal vote off tomorrow. For Labour. To be honest, none of my concerns about the Labour party have been answered but the Tories disgust me more by the day. I've always found it a bit odd when people claim to intensely dislike a politician but i'm beginning to understand with Johnson. He really is a c***.
Edit: Added a full stop [Post edited 2 Dec 2019 14:36]
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I attempted to answer some of your concerns. Did nothing resonate? | |
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| Good on 14:55 - Dec 2 with 2089 views | ZedRodgers |
| Good on 14:28 - Dec 2 by itfcjoe |
If that is true then the polls will be miles off - why will the 65+ vote go up by 10% in the winter? Plus 9 out of 10 getting out there and voting seems way OTT, a lot must struggle medically and a bad day would put pay to that too.
And the turnout seems so low for under 34? especially at the bottom end?
Where are these figures from? They just seem wrong |
Crazy isn't it.
If you re-weighted it with the 2017 turnout, Kantar's Tory lead would drop from 11% to 3.7%. Hence my optimism.
The data was available on their website, but it's not very user friendly and I can no longer find a direct link to that specific sample data: https://www.kantar.com/public
I have just found this though:
Again, this baffles me. There will be a greater turnout from Tories, because... *checks notes* ...they are Tories? | |
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