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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades 10:47 - Dec 7 with 506 viewsGeoffSentence

[Post edited 7 Dec 2019 10:51]

In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:49 - Dec 7 with 496 viewsWeWereZombies

Whatever it is I cannot see it, clip not working.

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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:51 - Dec 7 with 486 viewsGeoffSentence

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:49 - Dec 7 by WeWereZombies

Whatever it is I cannot see it, clip not working.


fixed

In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:57 - Dec 7 with 460 viewsBarneycurley

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:51 - Dec 7 by GeoffSentence

fixed


Its an Ice Age but not as we know it

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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:59 - Dec 7 with 452 viewsGeoffSentence

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:57 - Dec 7 by Barneycurley

Its an Ice Age but not as we know it


This is the Ice Age I like


In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:13 - Dec 7 with 436 viewsWeWereZombies

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:51 - Dec 7 by GeoffSentence

fixed


Ta, even got a mention in 'London Calling', didn't it?

There is still some scientific support for these theories but it must be tempered by other factors:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation#Next_glacial_period

Also worth mentioning that there are at least three major 'systems' in play here

1) Human activity contributing to Global warming by increased activity and thus greenhouse gases
1a) Human activity changing the usage of land on Earth and depleting some other species to the extent of extinctions (as well as more grazing animals contributing methane to greenhouse gases as in 1)
2) The solar cycle
3) Geological processes

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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:20 - Dec 7 with 424 viewsWeWereZombies

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 10:57 - Dec 7 by Barneycurley

Its an Ice Age but not as we know it



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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:36 - Dec 7 with 410 viewsStokieBlue

Not watched it but technically we are still in an ice age, the Holocene is just a interglacial period.

That's just being a pedant though.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:37 - Dec 7 with 407 viewsGeoffSentence

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:13 - Dec 7 by WeWereZombies

Ta, even got a mention in 'London Calling', didn't it?

There is still some scientific support for these theories but it must be tempered by other factors:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation#Next_glacial_period

Also worth mentioning that there are at least three major 'systems' in play here

1) Human activity contributing to Global warming by increased activity and thus greenhouse gases
1a) Human activity changing the usage of land on Earth and depleting some other species to the extent of extinctions (as well as more grazing animals contributing methane to greenhouse gases as in 1)
2) The solar cycle
3) Geological processes


Indeed, it is an immensely complicated field.

I just think it is fascinating that at the end of the 70s it was an ice age that was the climate worry and scientists were reporting 30 years of falling temperatures, whereas now it is the other way round.

In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:42 - Dec 7 with 389 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:37 - Dec 7 by GeoffSentence

Indeed, it is an immensely complicated field.

I just think it is fascinating that at the end of the 70s it was an ice age that was the climate worry and scientists were reporting 30 years of falling temperatures, whereas now it is the other way round.


Bloody scientists heh!!

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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:49 - Dec 7 with 382 viewsGeoffSentence

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:42 - Dec 7 by BanksterDebtSlave

Bloody scientists heh!!


Experts! One day they say one thing, the next another.

I'd like to know what Michael Gove has to say on the matter.

In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 12:11 - Dec 7 with 363 viewsgordon

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 11:37 - Dec 7 by GeoffSentence

Indeed, it is an immensely complicated field.

I just think it is fascinating that at the end of the 70s it was an ice age that was the climate worry and scientists were reporting 30 years of falling temperatures, whereas now it is the other way round.


This is complicated, but basically the premise of this thread isn't correct. In the early 70s there were some prominent scientists who calculated that the cooling effect of aerosols would outweigh the warming effect of CO2 in the atmosphere, but these were very, very early, primitive attempts to model the climate. Add in a few cold winters, and you ended up with some hyperbolic reporting like that.

Actually though, even in the late 70s there was a fairly strong consensus that the Earth was going to warm. Despite enormous limitations (compared to now) on datasets, computing power, and modelling techniques, in 1979 the Charney Report summarises the state of climate science (which had basically only existed as a discipline for a few years) - and the conclusions are strikingly consistent with what we now know (the bit about higher latitudes, particularly):

"When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and
statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling
efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes. This range reflects both uncertainties in physical understanding and inaccuracies arising from the need to reduce the mathematical problem to one that can be handled by even the fastest available electronic computers. It is significant, however, that none of the model calculations predicts negligible warming."
[Post edited 7 Dec 2019 12:12]
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 12:32 - Dec 7 with 332 viewsGeoffSentence

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 12:11 - Dec 7 by gordon

This is complicated, but basically the premise of this thread isn't correct. In the early 70s there were some prominent scientists who calculated that the cooling effect of aerosols would outweigh the warming effect of CO2 in the atmosphere, but these were very, very early, primitive attempts to model the climate. Add in a few cold winters, and you ended up with some hyperbolic reporting like that.

Actually though, even in the late 70s there was a fairly strong consensus that the Earth was going to warm. Despite enormous limitations (compared to now) on datasets, computing power, and modelling techniques, in 1979 the Charney Report summarises the state of climate science (which had basically only existed as a discipline for a few years) - and the conclusions are strikingly consistent with what we now know (the bit about higher latitudes, particularly):

"When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and
statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling
efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes. This range reflects both uncertainties in physical understanding and inaccuracies arising from the need to reduce the mathematical problem to one that can be handled by even the fastest available electronic computers. It is significant, however, that none of the model calculations predicts negligible warming."
[Post edited 7 Dec 2019 12:12]


Thanks for that excellent and informed response.

I don't want to come across as a climate change denier, I'm not I think we are poisoning our planet in all sorts of different ways, but there are some things that I don't understand, like the statement in that documentary that scientists measured northern hemisphere temperatures had been declining for 30 years, 2 degrees of lowering temperatures in the arctic for instance. Is that science accurate?

Another one being the proxy temperature data showing a drop in temperatures over the last thirty years, the subject of the climategate 'nature trick', so given that we have proxy data diverging from real measured data, how can the archaic temperature record based on proxy data be trusted?

In the 38 games in which ALB played in goal for us, we averaged 1.53 points per game which, had they been over the course of a single season, would have seen us challenging for the play offs. This at a time when we were otherwise struggling against relegation. Oh, and didn't Mick Mills have terrific posture.
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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 13:24 - Dec 7 with 311 viewsWeWereZombies

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 12:32 - Dec 7 by GeoffSentence

Thanks for that excellent and informed response.

I don't want to come across as a climate change denier, I'm not I think we are poisoning our planet in all sorts of different ways, but there are some things that I don't understand, like the statement in that documentary that scientists measured northern hemisphere temperatures had been declining for 30 years, 2 degrees of lowering temperatures in the arctic for instance. Is that science accurate?

Another one being the proxy temperature data showing a drop in temperatures over the last thirty years, the subject of the climategate 'nature trick', so given that we have proxy data diverging from real measured data, how can the archaic temperature record based on proxy data be trusted?


It was the so called 'hockey stick trick' wasn't it? Came out of the UEA so did have a bit of Norfolk clumsiness about it but a minor infringement that was seized upon and ramped up by the deniers. I think it can be said that their line of attack is fairly unscientific and would be more acceptable if it were balanced.

The second graph on the document from a United States national agency does not seem to support the assertion of a cooling climate in the middle of the Twentieth century:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/last-1000-years

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There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 13:50 - Dec 7 with 294 viewsgordon

There has been a dramatic reversal of opinion over the last few decades on 12:32 - Dec 7 by GeoffSentence

Thanks for that excellent and informed response.

I don't want to come across as a climate change denier, I'm not I think we are poisoning our planet in all sorts of different ways, but there are some things that I don't understand, like the statement in that documentary that scientists measured northern hemisphere temperatures had been declining for 30 years, 2 degrees of lowering temperatures in the arctic for instance. Is that science accurate?

Another one being the proxy temperature data showing a drop in temperatures over the last thirty years, the subject of the climategate 'nature trick', so given that we have proxy data diverging from real measured data, how can the archaic temperature record based on proxy data be trusted?


I can't really speak to what's in that documentary because it isn't referenced, but those numbers sound too big - although there was a period from the 1940s to the 1970s when temperatures remained stable or cooled (see the graph at the second link), leading to the stuff in that documentary.

Just for interest though, here's a link to a paper written in 1972 which predicted an increase in global mean teperature of 0.6 degrees by 2000. Observed warming was actually about 0.54 degrees - the reason for the slight over-estimate was that the paper slightly overestimates how much CO2 was going to be emitted (so the model, even back then, was pretty accurate).

https://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/CLIMATE_BKGD/Sawyer_Natur


I'm not sure I follow your second paragraph, here's annual mean temperature deviation from the 20th century mean going back to 1880:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-globa
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