| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass 09:50 - Dec 11 with 4976 views | artsbossbeard |
FYI, really:
Labour have put massive resources into 60 'winnable seats' around the south midlands, London suburbs, South west and metropolitan areas. They are polling extremely well in most of them.
They expect to lose some seats in Labour heartlands in the north, mainly eastern areas - areas where brexit is absolutely rooted into the working class vote, maybe between 6-10.
They think there will be big losses in the Tory vote in the South East where traditional Tory voters are more in line with the likes of Major and Heseltine and will absolutely not vote for Johnson.
The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated.
The 19-35 vote, they are expecting the biggest ever turnout amongst this age group (as new voter registrations have shown). This is the generation that will be affected more than any by climate and future prospects.
The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data.
SavantaComRes were the only pollster last time who got remotely close and they were around 3% out in 2017. they currently have a 6% gap.
in the last 24 hours, they also expect remainers aligned with the lib dems to move to Labour, when they realise it's the only chance to stop brexit.
Don't underestimate how big an issue the NHS is on the doorstep. The last 48 hours have kept it firmly front and centre |  |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:53 - Dec 11 with 2371 views | chicoazul |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:57 - Dec 11 with 2349 views | StokieBlue |
Very interesting - thanks.
So that's what the Labour mega-doods are saying to their canvassers? Not entirely sure it's a fully independent analysis :).
Couple of things:
"The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data."
What do you mean by this? What raw data?
"The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated."
This will have a big effect but I don't think people are grasping the scale of the uncosted commitment and Labour are keen not to highlight it. It's 65% of the entire UK education budget but it will certainly be a vote winner.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:59 - Dec 11 with 2321 views | artsbossbeard |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:57 - Dec 11 by StokieBlue |
Very interesting - thanks.
So that's what the Labour mega-doods are saying to their canvassers? Not entirely sure it's a fully independent analysis :).
Couple of things:
"The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data."
What do you mean by this? What raw data?
"The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated."
This will have a big effect but I don't think people are grasping the scale of the uncosted commitment and Labour are keen not to highlight it. It's 65% of the entire UK education budget but it will certainly be a vote winner.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
SB |
Raw data Q? I've absolutely no idea!!
I just cut & pasted it directly as I thought it would be of interest to the board to see Labour's take on things a day before the election.
Agree with your waspi conclusion too. | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:01 - Dec 11 with 2315 views | Guthrum |
Similarly, a LibDem friend of mine said the canvassing in his constituency (a target seat of theirs) was showing a very different picture from polling company predictions. Much closer to their experience in the May local elections, when there was a massive swing from blue to orange in that area. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:03 - Dec 11 with 2300 views | StokieBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:59 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
Raw data Q? I've absolutely no idea!!
I just cut & pasted it directly as I thought it would be of interest to the board to see Labour's take on things a day before the election.
Agree with your waspi conclusion too. |
No worries, just seems a rather counter-intuitive statement. How can one be ahead in raw data but behind on the analysed data. It implies bias on the side of the analysis.
Thanks for posting though - it's interesting to see where Labour think they are. I actually think the first constituency to declare might give us some pointers on how the evening will go.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:08 - Dec 11 with 2266 views | chicoazul |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:57 - Dec 11 by StokieBlue |
Very interesting - thanks.
So that's what the Labour mega-doods are saying to their canvassers? Not entirely sure it's a fully independent analysis :).
Couple of things:
"The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data."
What do you mean by this? What raw data?
"The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated."
This will have a big effect but I don't think people are grasping the scale of the uncosted commitment and Labour are keen not to highlight it. It's 65% of the entire UK education budget but it will certainly be a vote winner.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
SB |
Not sure about the Waspi thing. I feel many people underestimate how tribal voting is. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:08 - Dec 11 with 2260 views | Guthrum |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:57 - Dec 11 by StokieBlue |
Very interesting - thanks.
So that's what the Labour mega-doods are saying to their canvassers? Not entirely sure it's a fully independent analysis :).
Couple of things:
"The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data."
What do you mean by this? What raw data?
"The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated."
This will have a big effect but I don't think people are grasping the scale of the uncosted commitment and Labour are keen not to highlight it. It's 65% of the entire UK education budget but it will certainly be a vote winner.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
SB |
They probably mean raw data of people spoken to on the doorstep, who are then assessed for their likely voting intention. All the parties have database systems with this kind of info, which has the advantage of being constituency-specific, rather than being mathematically modelled from random, but limited*, national samples.
* The sample size for the Observer/Opinium poll - which consistently shows the largest lead for Con - is just 2,000 individuals. [Post edited 11 Dec 2019 10:15]
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:10 - Dec 11 with 2242 views | lowhouseblue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:57 - Dec 11 by StokieBlue |
Very interesting - thanks.
So that's what the Labour mega-doods are saying to their canvassers? Not entirely sure it's a fully independent analysis :).
Couple of things:
"The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data."
What do you mean by this? What raw data?
"The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated."
This will have a big effect but I don't think people are grasping the scale of the uncosted commitment and Labour are keen not to highlight it. It's 65% of the entire UK education budget but it will certainly be a vote winner.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
SB |
i assume by raw data they mean their own canvas returns.
you would expect any waspi effect to now to be built into the polling.
biggng up their chances on the final day is probably good for the mental health of the canvassers - but equally it will convince tory voters that it's still worth voting.
everyone has an incentive to say its close at this stage.
the exciting thing is that tomorrow we find out. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:12 - Dec 11 with 2231 views | WD19 |
On the face of it, your post would be very interesting.
But the bit where you say "The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data" is completely and utterly false.
Sorry. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:12 - Dec 11 with 2227 views | Guthrum |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:08 - Dec 11 by chicoazul |
Not sure about the Waspi thing. I feel many people underestimate how tribal voting is. |
They may consider LD rather than their usual Con, but are put off by the idea of making Corbyn PM as a result. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:15 - Dec 11 with 2206 views | artsbossbeard |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:12 - Dec 11 by WD19 |
On the face of it, your post would be very interesting.
But the bit where you say "The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data" is completely and utterly false.
Sorry. |
I'm not 100% sure why you're saying sorry to me though.
I've merely C&P'ed something from Labour Top Brass. I can find you a Labour twitter account to write to, if that would help.
You could even back up your false statement too in reply. | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:19 - Dec 11 with 2185 views | artsbossbeard |
No parade needs pissing on.
As stated, I've merely c&p'ed Labour HQ's views the day before an election. | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:21 - Dec 11 with 2161 views | hampstead_blue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 09:53 - Dec 11 by chicoazul |
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Brexit party doing well.... 3%.
That's 3% od wasted votes. |  |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
| | Poll: | Best Blackpool goal |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:21 - Dec 11 with 2160 views | chicoazul |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:12 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
They may consider LD rather than their usual Con, but are put off by the idea of making Corbyn PM as a result. |
Yep. It seems the Maximum Leader has proven the biggest roadblock to success for Labour despite his huge popularity amongst some. But we will find out for sure tomorrow night. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:22 - Dec 11 with 2151 views | Guthrum |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:12 - Dec 11 by WD19 |
On the face of it, your post would be very interesting.
But the bit where you say "The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data" is completely and utterly false.
Sorry. |
I'm quite interested by how the mathematics of polling companies work. How they select their sample (is it purely random, or are specific demographics targeted?) and how that is then converted into a national prediction.
How and to what extent are they able to incorporate local factors and the peculiarites of each individual election (personalities, events, issues, the Brexit divide)? Especially at a time of considerable political flux. How dynamic are they on this?
I appreciate there is often a gap between poll results and how they are reported in the media. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:23 - Dec 11 with 2144 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:19 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
No parade needs pissing on.
As stated, I've merely c&p'ed Labour HQ's views the day before an election. |
Tory HQ view the day before the election. We will get a majority, get Brexit done and have an oven ready deal ready to go in the microwave.
It’s all bollox mate. But if it helps you sleep better tonight then fair dues. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:25 - Dec 11 with 2129 views | StokieBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:08 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
They probably mean raw data of people spoken to on the doorstep, who are then assessed for their likely voting intention. All the parties have database systems with this kind of info, which has the advantage of being constituency-specific, rather than being mathematically modelled from random, but limited*, national samples.
* The sample size for the Observer/Opinium poll - which consistently shows the largest lead for Con - is just 2,000 individuals. [Post edited 11 Dec 2019 10:15]
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I would say that date is less likely to be accurate on a countrywide basis but better on some individual constituency basis. They tend to canvass more in areas they think they can win and where they have won before. There is also the psychological element of people not wanting to be confrontational on the doorstep and saying anything.
I quite like the modelling of elections. It's not as straight-forward as it used to be. It's now based on demographics and the fact that similar people tend to vote in similar ways and thus you can extrapolate (up to a point) how similar people will vote.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:26 - Dec 11 with 2120 views | artsbossbeard |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:23 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
Tory HQ view the day before the election. We will get a majority, get Brexit done and have an oven ready deal ready to go in the microwave.
It’s all bollox mate. But if it helps you sleep better tonight then fair dues. |
I thought it of interest to provide some Labour referenceable thoughts on things and to highlight areas where they see both gains and losses.
It's no skin off my back, I've a good idea how things will pan out tomorrow but I'll still vote with my social conscious. | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:32 - Dec 11 with 2083 views | StokieBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:22 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
I'm quite interested by how the mathematics of polling companies work. How they select their sample (is it purely random, or are specific demographics targeted?) and how that is then converted into a national prediction.
How and to what extent are they able to incorporate local factors and the peculiarites of each individual election (personalities, events, issues, the Brexit divide)? Especially at a time of considerable political flux. How dynamic are they on this?
I appreciate there is often a gap between poll results and how they are reported in the media. |
It’s an interesting subject.
In the latest methodology I believe they take a pseudo-random sample of voters across the country to get their intentions. It needs to be pseudo-random as it needs to cover a wide range of demographics as they need to develop a “standard” vote for a number of different cohorts.
They then take the demographics of each constituency and apply the voting intentions of cohorts that match the percentages of each demographic in that constituency. This is done because in general, similar people tend to vote in similar ways.
You are of course correct that this would miss local things like a really good local MP who would get votes from people outside the usual demographic cohorts. I am not sure how they correct for this — I assume if there is a historical big majority which is skewed against the predicted results they assume local factors are in play and weight the predictions accordingly.
You could even model floating voters using demographics and some type of monte-carlo but I don’t think they do that and haven’t really thought about how accurate that might be.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:32 - Dec 11 with 2081 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:26 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
I thought it of interest to provide some Labour referenceable thoughts on things and to highlight areas where they see both gains and losses.
It's no skin off my back, I've a good idea how things will pan out tomorrow but I'll still vote with my social conscious. |
If Labour’s internal numbers was good then Jon Ashworth wouldn’t have been caught out saying it’s a disaster.
Zed would also be on here rallying the troops but even he seems to have given up.
Best result would be a hung parliament with the minor parties demanding the resignation of Corbyn or Johnson before doing a deal with them. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:33 - Dec 11 with 2073 views | Swansea_Blue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:21 - Dec 11 by hampstead_blue |
Brexit party doing well.... 3%.
That's 3% od wasted votes. |
Looks to me like the BP are on 43% |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:33 - Dec 11 with 2074 views | itfcjoe |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:26 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
I thought it of interest to provide some Labour referenceable thoughts on things and to highlight areas where they see both gains and losses.
It's no skin off my back, I've a good idea how things will pan out tomorrow but I'll still vote with my social conscious. |
Have the Ipswich Star declared who is winning Ipswich yet? They are never wrong and usually allow you to make a few quid at the bookies.
Until that exit poll drops we won't know anything - I've got a 3000 word assignment to do and may pull an all nighter and go to bed early Friday as Mrs out with the kids.
What time does exit poll normally drop (not aimed directly at you) |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:35 - Dec 11 with 2064 views | Pinewoodblue |
Suspect strong leave or remain constituencies will not follow the same pattern. Makes it difficult to guess the final outcome. Biggest surprise will I feel be the number of seats Conservatives retain in Scotland. Worth remembering we probably wouldn’t have had a conservative government last time if the SNP hadn’t lost so many seats to the tories. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:35 - Dec 11 with 2063 views | artsbossbeard |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:32 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
If Labour’s internal numbers was good then Jon Ashworth wouldn’t have been caught out saying it’s a disaster.
Zed would also be on here rallying the troops but even he seems to have given up.
Best result would be a hung parliament with the minor parties demanding the resignation of Corbyn or Johnson before doing a deal with them. |
A hung parliament, IMO, would be the best possible result for Labour BUT not for the British people as a whole.
Majority needed to get out this current malaise and impasse. | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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