| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass 09:50 - Dec 11 with 4978 views | artsbossbeard |
FYI, really:
Labour have put massive resources into 60 'winnable seats' around the south midlands, London suburbs, South west and metropolitan areas. They are polling extremely well in most of them.
They expect to lose some seats in Labour heartlands in the north, mainly eastern areas - areas where brexit is absolutely rooted into the working class vote, maybe between 6-10.
They think there will be big losses in the Tory vote in the South East where traditional Tory voters are more in line with the likes of Major and Heseltine and will absolutely not vote for Johnson.
The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated.
The 19-35 vote, they are expecting the biggest ever turnout amongst this age group (as new voter registrations have shown). This is the generation that will be affected more than any by climate and future prospects.
The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data.
SavantaComRes were the only pollster last time who got remotely close and they were around 3% out in 2017. they currently have a 6% gap.
in the last 24 hours, they also expect remainers aligned with the lib dems to move to Labour, when they realise it's the only chance to stop brexit.
Don't underestimate how big an issue the NHS is on the doorstep. The last 48 hours have kept it firmly front and centre |  |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:37 - Dec 11 with 911 views | IpswichKnight |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:33 - Dec 11 by itfcjoe |
Have the Ipswich Star declared who is winning Ipswich yet? They are never wrong and usually allow you to make a few quid at the bookies.
Until that exit poll drops we won't know anything - I've got a 3000 word assignment to do and may pull an all nighter and go to bed early Friday as Mrs out with the kids.
What time does exit poll normally drop (not aimed directly at you) |
Exit poll should drop by 22.01.
Reports from Richmond Park and North Kingston where Zac Goldsmith is defending a double digit majority are that normal Liberal voters do not want a Corbyn led administration are starting to vote for him, 2 weeks ago he had all but given up the seat now he looks like he might increase his majority. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:44 - Dec 11 with 896 views | Guthrum |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:25 - Dec 11 by StokieBlue |
I would say that date is less likely to be accurate on a countrywide basis but better on some individual constituency basis. They tend to canvass more in areas they think they can win and where they have won before. There is also the psychological element of people not wanting to be confrontational on the doorstep and saying anything.
I quite like the modelling of elections. It's not as straight-forward as it used to be. It's now based on demographics and the fact that similar people tend to vote in similar ways and thus you can extrapolate (up to a point) how similar people will vote.
SB |
A big handicap for canvassing in this election is the problem of going out door-knocking in the dark. Restricting it to daylight hours misses everybody who is out at work. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:45 - Dec 11 with 892 views | WD19 |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:15 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
I'm not 100% sure why you're saying sorry to me though.
I've merely C&P'ed something from Labour Top Brass. I can find you a Labour twitter account to write to, if that would help.
You could even back up your false statement too in reply. |
I have seen the raw data.
Not that it means anything (as others have said). |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:45 - Dec 11 with 894 views | WeWereZombies |
What none of the comments so far have taken into account is the liability of polling organisations to be 'played', either willingly or unknowingly. Which is one of the reasons polls can be so far adrift at times. And payment can take many forms, not just in types of funding but in 'grace and favour' appointments to pollsters when they hang up their score cards and so on.
As someone who gets a little too enamoured with football stats I think I have to point out the same criticism that gets made there - only one stat counts and that is the score at the end of the game. Similarly, none of the polls should affect how you vote as it is the election itself that counts. Glad to see you comment about voting with your conscience, it is what everyone should do. [Post edited 11 Dec 2019 10:56]
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:47 - Dec 11 with 885 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:26 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
I thought it of interest to provide some Labour referenceable thoughts on things and to highlight areas where they see both gains and losses.
It's no skin off my back, I've a good idea how things will pan out tomorrow but I'll still vote with my social conscious. |
The statement “ SavantaComRes were the only pollster last time who got remotely close ” is completely false. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:48 - Dec 11 with 881 views | Steve_M |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:35 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
A hung parliament, IMO, would be the best possible result for Labour BUT not for the British people as a whole.
Majority needed to get out this current malaise and impasse. |
"Majority needed to get out this current malaise and impasse."
I can't see how a Tory majority does that either. The symbolic actual leaving of the EU will happen but then there are the compromises to follow in finding the UK's - or what's left of it - place in the world.
Some honesty about trade offs is what is needed to reach a rational solution, that isn't what the blonde narcissist is promising. And so the whole sorry mess will drag on for years. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:48 - Dec 11 with 879 views | BlueBadger |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:35 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
A hung parliament, IMO, would be the best possible result for Labour BUT not for the British people as a whole.
Majority needed to get out this current malaise and impasse. |
Conversely, a Tory majority will be a disaster. Hung parliament is probably a 'least worst' outcome. [Post edited 11 Dec 2019 10:48]
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:49 - Dec 11 with 867 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:35 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
A hung parliament, IMO, would be the best possible result for Labour BUT not for the British people as a whole.
Majority needed to get out this current malaise and impasse. |
But the only party with any prospect of forming a majority are the Tories. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:49 - Dec 11 with 866 views | artsbossbeard |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:48 - Dec 11 by BlueBadger |
Conversely, a Tory majority will be a disaster. Hung parliament is probably a 'least worst' outcome. [Post edited 11 Dec 2019 10:48]
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There's the rub! | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:52 - Dec 11 with 844 views | artsbossbeard |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:49 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
But the only party with any prospect of forming a majority are the Tories. |
I understand that fully.
I don't like it but I understand that. | |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:02 - Dec 11 with 818 views | giant_stow |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:52 - Dec 11 by artsbossbeard |
I understand that fully.
I don't like it but I understand that. |
Ta for the op - interesting read. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:06 - Dec 11 with 812 views | GaryCooper |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:21 - Dec 11 by hampstead_blue |
Brexit party doing well.... 3%.
That's 3% od wasted votes. |
Yet 3% projects 41 MPs for the Scot Nats, a little over represented I feel. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:34 - Dec 11 with 776 views | Ryorry |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:44 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
A big handicap for canvassing in this election is the problem of going out door-knocking in the dark. Restricting it to daylight hours misses everybody who is out at work. |
There's light snow & low temps forecast for tomorrow in some constituencies (incl mine) too. Rain, sometimes heavy, & 3 or 4C where it's not actually snowing will I fear reduce turnout & have an adverse impact. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:44 - Dec 11 with 763 views | itfcjoe |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:34 - Dec 11 by Ryorry |
There's light snow & low temps forecast for tomorrow in some constituencies (incl mine) too. Rain, sometimes heavy, & 3 or 4C where it's not actually snowing will I fear reduce turnout & have an adverse impact. |
Hopefully it reduces turnout of the elderly and not the young when you see their overall voting intentions - no offence Ryorry and I hope you can make it! |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:48 - Dec 11 with 757 views | Ryorry |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:44 - Dec 11 by itfcjoe |
Hopefully it reduces turnout of the elderly and not the young when you see their overall voting intentions - no offence Ryorry and I hope you can make it! |
Heh, take your point! | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:04 - Dec 11 with 730 views | britbiker |
I know a few who won't vote Labour because the thought of Corbyn's lot in charge is too scary for them but won't vote tory either as they think Boris is a liar. Be interesting to see how many don't vote, not to waste a vote, but because they don't trust any party. Could have a big impact on marginal seats. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:06 - Dec 11 with 724 views | jimmyvet |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:44 - Dec 11 by itfcjoe |
Hopefully it reduces turnout of the elderly and not the young when you see their overall voting intentions - no offence Ryorry and I hope you can make it! |
All said and done and through gritted teeth most sensible middle of the road voters will do anything to stop a JC JM government in any form I dont believe for 1 moment the Tory core silver vote will be put off by cold weather or snow. Quite the opposite it’s the snowflakes on the left who are likely to find inclement weather all to much to cope with !! | | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:12 - Dec 11 with 713 views | Lord_Lucan |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:44 - Dec 11 by itfcjoe |
Hopefully it reduces turnout of the elderly and not the young when you see their overall voting intentions - no offence Ryorry and I hope you can make it! |
I think there is more likelihood of the reverse happening. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:30 - Dec 11 with 694 views | HARRY10 |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:12 - Dec 11 by Lord_Lucan |
I think there is more likelihood of the reverse happening. |
eh ?
I will say for certain that out of the two demographis it will be the younger vote that will turn out in far higher numbers than before with the converse for the over 65 vote......if only that all current evidence points to that | | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:30 - Dec 11 with 694 views | ZedRodgers |
Survation seem to be suggesting in this poll that Labour's vote share in London will fall from 67% in 2017, to 36% (4% behind the Tories).
Would be quite a remarkable shift. Stranger things have happened but I'm happy put on record that I'll eat all of your hats if we see the Tories at +14 on Thursday evening with Labour only achieving 36% in London. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:37 - Dec 11 with 686 views | Darth_Koont |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:48 - Dec 11 by Steve_M |
"Majority needed to get out this current malaise and impasse."
I can't see how a Tory majority does that either. The symbolic actual leaving of the EU will happen but then there are the compromises to follow in finding the UK's - or what's left of it - place in the world.
Some honesty about trade offs is what is needed to reach a rational solution, that isn't what the blonde narcissist is promising. And so the whole sorry mess will drag on for years. |
You're right.
Hard to see how we're not going to be debating Brexit in the HoC or on here for a good few years' yet. In fact, Johnson's approach including silly timeline almost demands that. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:41 - Dec 11 with 678 views | Lord_Lucan |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:30 - Dec 11 by HARRY10 |
eh ?
I will say for certain that out of the two demographis it will be the younger vote that will turn out in far higher numbers than before with the converse for the over 65 vote......if only that all current evidence points to that |
I have been looking at some of your posts and I have concluded that your red scarf is so tight around your neck that it has starved your brain of oxygen. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:42 - Dec 11 with 672 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:44 - Dec 11 by itfcjoe |
Hopefully it reduces turnout of the elderly and not the young when you see their overall voting intentions - no offence Ryorry and I hope you can make it! |
Don’t you want people of all ages and persuasions to have a fair and equal chance to vote? Seems very anti democracy to hope a certain demographic is put off from ex existing their right to vote because of adverse weather. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:51 - Dec 11 with 654 views | Darth_Koont |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:42 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
Don’t you want people of all ages and persuasions to have a fair and equal chance to vote? Seems very anti democracy to hope a certain demographic is put off from ex existing their right to vote because of adverse weather. |
As they're the demographic (not individuals many of whom have very different ideas) who appear to care least about child poverty, climate change, our economy as an isolated non-EU afterthought, xenophobic and racist outlook, the NHS and even elderly care then I'll be quite happy if they're not over-represented as normal.
We look to the past far too often in the UK and without learning lessons it seems. Minimizing that tendency or certainly not over-indulging it is much needed to navigate our future. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:53 - Dec 11 with 653 views | slump |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:42 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
Don’t you want people of all ages and persuasions to have a fair and equal chance to vote? Seems very anti democracy to hope a certain demographic is put off from ex existing their right to vote because of adverse weather. |
Yes and in addition 16, & 17 year olds and resident EU nationals |  |
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