| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass 09:50 - Dec 11 with 4975 views | artsbossbeard |
FYI, really:
Labour have put massive resources into 60 'winnable seats' around the south midlands, London suburbs, South west and metropolitan areas. They are polling extremely well in most of them.
They expect to lose some seats in Labour heartlands in the north, mainly eastern areas - areas where brexit is absolutely rooted into the working class vote, maybe between 6-10.
They think there will be big losses in the Tory vote in the South East where traditional Tory voters are more in line with the likes of Major and Heseltine and will absolutely not vote for Johnson.
The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated.
The 19-35 vote, they are expecting the biggest ever turnout amongst this age group (as new voter registrations have shown). This is the generation that will be affected more than any by climate and future prospects.
The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data.
SavantaComRes were the only pollster last time who got remotely close and they were around 3% out in 2017. they currently have a 6% gap.
in the last 24 hours, they also expect remainers aligned with the lib dems to move to Labour, when they realise it's the only chance to stop brexit.
Don't underestimate how big an issue the NHS is on the doorstep. The last 48 hours have kept it firmly front and centre |  |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:48 - Dec 11 with 652 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:37 - Dec 11 by Darth_Koont |
Indeed. Most Leavers think "it's gone too far with the EU" and we essentially need to get back to a former time.
It's a resolutely backwards step that ignores the modern world let alone the future and not a step the younger generation would take for that reason. |
Again you’re wrong - turnout amongst younger age groups in the referendum was 60%+, which is much higher than the usual general election turnout (including 2017)
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referen
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-42747342
And once again, the younger demographic actually outnumber the older one, so if the youth really cared that strongly they had the manpower to make a decisive difference |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 17:05 - Dec 11 with 603 views | Darth_Koont |
What am I wrong about? Turnout for a referendum like Brexit is a data point on its own so can't be compared to general elections in that way.
I'm saying young people vote more for progressive politics and turn out more for that too. As shown in the difference between 2015 and 2017. As IPSOS Mori says: "Compared with the last general election in 2015, turnout (in 2017) among the population as a whole rose by 16 points among 18-24 year olds, and by eight points among 25-34 year olds. Turnout fell slightly by three points among those aged 65+ since 2015."
67% of 18-24 voted Labour in 2017 while 27% voted Conservative. That advantage holds until a balance around the 45-54 age group but by the time we get to 65+ it's fallen off a cliff: 69% Conservative and just 25% Labour. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 21:29 - Dec 11 with 536 views | WeWereZombies |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 14:05 - Dec 11 by HARRY10 |
I am stating that he was doorstepped whilst going into a preplanned speech. R is one of those silly myths that is dragged out whenever there is a perceived proble.
My previous point about hpw voters simply coalece around opposite positions has been borne out by the polls ie voters are moving either to Labour of the Tories.
PR will not change that as every decision is either for or against and so, as with the DUP, they either fall in line or not.
The real failing is lack of engagement by voters, who then blame the system that they chose to not involve themselves in. |
'PR will not change that as every decision is either for or against and so, as with the DUP, they either fall in line or not.'
Really? Voting can be a balance between opting for a candidate who you think will make the best representative for your constituency and for the representative of the party that you think is best for the United Kingdom. I do not see it as a binary choice. And proportional representation would broaden that choice as well as giving voters an opportunity to have more say in the agenda setting. Consider how the Green Party get squeezed out at the moment but in something like the single transferable vote system in Ireland sees them win much more support as the second choice of many so that environmental issues are given due accord by other parties as well. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 23:29 - Dec 11 with 513 views | BrixtonBlue |
If Survation was the only polling company to get anywhere near the correct result in 2017, why do you so often on here cite lots of other polling companies? |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 06:59 - Dec 12 with 484 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 23:29 - Dec 11 by BrixtonBlue |
If Survation was the only polling company to get anywhere near the correct result in 2017, why do you so often on here cite lots of other polling companies? |
Because a different one will probably be closest this year? | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 07:04 - Dec 12 with 478 views | BrixtonBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 06:59 - Dec 12 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Because a different one will probably be closest this year? |
That's a lame answer.
If he's insinuating this is the most reliable one (which he is) why does he so often quote various others?
I think we both know the real reason. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 07:08 - Dec 12 with 468 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 07:04 - Dec 12 by BrixtonBlue |
That's a lame answer.
If he's insinuating this is the most reliable one (which he is) why does he so often quote various others?
I think we both know the real reason. |
I think if they want to find polls that show a big Conservative lead there’s plenty to choose from
Weird whine given that we’ll know in 24 hours if the polls were in the right ballpark or not | |
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