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Trump doing his bit for world peace again 09:50 - Jan 3 with 5443 viewsSwansea_Blue

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths

Seems like things are on a bit of knife edge.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 09:58 - Jan 3 with 2475 viewsStokieBlue

Qassem Suleimani is obviously a nasty piece of work but this really isn't the way to go about things and to tweet an Amercian flag just before the announcement is something a 10 year old would do.

Nothing to do now but wait and see how the Iranians react. It's an election year don't forget so standard presidential playbook seems to have been enacted and a war never hurt any sitting presidents chances.

SB

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 09:59 - Jan 3 with 2480 viewsSteve_M

Well no-one cared too much when Iranian-backed militias were murdering hundreds of protesters in Baghdad in recent weeks. Suleimani is hardly an innocent here and yet the Trump administration has been built on loyalty rather than expertise so this is a lashing out rather than a considered response.

I think this right too:


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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:00 - Jan 3 with 2467 viewsPippin1970

Any American citizen , soldier will have to leave surrounding areas ASAP. This has definitely lit a fuse and start of a huge Middle East war..
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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:06 - Jan 3 with 2443 viewsSwansea_Blue

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:00 - Jan 3 by Pippin1970

Any American citizen , soldier will have to leave surrounding areas ASAP. This has definitely lit a fuse and start of a huge Middle East war..


Yeah, their embassy is already advising US citizens to leave. It'll be interesting, but also potentially gruesome watching to see what happens next. And also to see what stance we take.
[Post edited 3 Jan 2020 10:06]

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:11 - Jan 3 with 2419 viewshomer_123

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 09:59 - Jan 3 by Steve_M

Well no-one cared too much when Iranian-backed militias were murdering hundreds of protesters in Baghdad in recent weeks. Suleimani is hardly an innocent here and yet the Trump administration has been built on loyalty rather than expertise so this is a lashing out rather than a considered response.

I think this right too:



Did you hear the Iranian Professor on R4 this morning?

His final sentence (I think) when asked if Iran will respond was along the lines of 'it doesn't matter how you frame this....' - I think he's right.

No one comes out of this looking good but irrespective - this could well act as a major flash point (again).

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:27 - Jan 3 with 2366 viewsSteve_M

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:11 - Jan 3 by homer_123

Did you hear the Iranian Professor on R4 this morning?

His final sentence (I think) when asked if Iran will respond was along the lines of 'it doesn't matter how you frame this....' - I think he's right.

No one comes out of this looking good but irrespective - this could well act as a major flash point (again).


It doesn't necessarily need to be major flash point to be a problem. In the last year Iranian-backed forces have taken out a large part of Aramco's crude processing facilities and attacked tankers in the Gulf. We're far more likely to see continued escalation than a real war.

That seems to be Trump'#s approach to foreign policy, fire off a few missiles or sanctions and wait for enemy to agree with him. A strategy familiar to anyone who has ever spent much time with a small child.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:29 - Jan 3 with 2351 viewsGlasgowBlue

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 09:59 - Jan 3 by Steve_M

Well no-one cared too much when Iranian-backed militias were murdering hundreds of protesters in Baghdad in recent weeks. Suleimani is hardly an innocent here and yet the Trump administration has been built on loyalty rather than expertise so this is a lashing out rather than a considered response.

I think this right too:



Yes it’s quite reasonable think that Donald Trump is an complete and utter w4nker and believe that the death of an Iranian general responsible for the deaths of tens if not hundreds of thousands of innocent people is not a bad thing.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:31 - Jan 3 with 2350 viewsm14_blue

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:29 - Jan 3 by GlasgowBlue

Yes it’s quite reasonable think that Donald Trump is an complete and utter w4nker and believe that the death of an Iranian general responsible for the deaths of tens if not hundreds of thousands of innocent people is not a bad thing.


Not in isolation perhaps but it rather depends what happens now.

Iran aren't just going to pack up and go home now that Soleimani is dead.
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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:57 - Jan 3 with 2284 viewsCoco


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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:58 - Jan 3 with 2285 viewsGuthrum

The political impact of this within Iran could be quite interesting.

There may be much shouting about martyrdom, but the removal of Soleimani from the scene could strenghten the hand of Rouhani and the (relative) moderates if there is nobody as competent and dynamic to take his place.

It's a critical time. With Supreme Leader Khamenei now in his 80s, there will be a succession struggle and with it a decision on the future direction of Iran. Soleimani was a major player in all that (much more so than his nominal commander Hassan Salami (head of the Revolutionary Guard).

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:02 - Jan 3 with 2255 viewsartsbossbeard

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 09:59 - Jan 3 by Steve_M

Well no-one cared too much when Iranian-backed militias were murdering hundreds of protesters in Baghdad in recent weeks. Suleimani is hardly an innocent here and yet the Trump administration has been built on loyalty rather than expertise so this is a lashing out rather than a considered response.

I think this right too:



https://www.mediaite.com/online/guess-who-said-this-our-president-will-start-a-w

It's David Blaine type stuff too. "Watch me make my impeachment disappear with a trick of the hand and a diversion."

The man is an absolute menace to this world.

Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing.
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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:03 - Jan 3 with 2244 viewsSteve_M

This is interesting, from August 2018 on the risks of this killing:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/is-the-iranian-general-taunting-trump-on-a-us-hit-

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:07 - Jan 3 with 2224 viewsGuthrum

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:31 - Jan 3 by m14_blue

Not in isolation perhaps but it rather depends what happens now.

Iran aren't just going to pack up and go home now that Soleimani is dead.


But they have just lost their most effective operator.

Plus there is a limit to what the Iranians can practically do. Attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz would immediately trigger a war which they are unlikely to win, plus it would strangle their own oil export industry (what's left of it under US sanctions). They could attack Israel, but only indirectly and with limited impact. Damaging Saudi oil installations would risk further retaliation, tho it would spread economic alarm.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:09 - Jan 3 with 2212 viewsGuthrum

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:29 - Jan 3 by GlasgowBlue

Yes it’s quite reasonable think that Donald Trump is an complete and utter w4nker and believe that the death of an Iranian general responsible for the deaths of tens if not hundreds of thousands of innocent people is not a bad thing.


That was always the dilemma over Iraq. Regime change is morally dubious, but Saddam Hussein al Tikriti was really not a very nice man.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:12 - Jan 3 with 2196 viewshampstead_blue

What a bloke. Someone nominate him for a Nobel Peace prize......

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:17 - Jan 3 with 2161 viewsStokieBlue

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:07 - Jan 3 by Guthrum

But they have just lost their most effective operator.

Plus there is a limit to what the Iranians can practically do. Attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz would immediately trigger a war which they are unlikely to win, plus it would strangle their own oil export industry (what's left of it under US sanctions). They could attack Israel, but only indirectly and with limited impact. Damaging Saudi oil installations would risk further retaliation, tho it would spread economic alarm.


This is pretty much spot on.

They can obviously wage war through terrorist attacks but in a direct confrontation they don't really have many options:

1). Attack Saudi infrastructure - doubt the US and the Saudis would let this pass a second time and would likely result in the US crippling Iranian oil infrastructure which wouldn't be hard for them.

2). Attack Israel - this isn't a confrontation that Iran can realistically "win" even if the US don't get involved. It would just be bad for everyone and seems a bit pointless.

3). Closing the Straits of Hormuz would likely end in the sinking of most of the Iranian navy by the US - it's always been stated as a red line for them.

It's entirely possible that the Iranians have overplayed their hand recently, feeling it to be stronger than it is in reality.

At the moment thought it seems pretty hard to predict what is going to happen. Ideally your initial point on the moderates gaining more influence would be nice but really hard to know.

SB

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:22 - Jan 3 with 2136 viewsfooters

Wise move not to chuck the t-shirt.


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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:24 - Jan 3 with 2118 viewsSteve_M

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:17 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue

This is pretty much spot on.

They can obviously wage war through terrorist attacks but in a direct confrontation they don't really have many options:

1). Attack Saudi infrastructure - doubt the US and the Saudis would let this pass a second time and would likely result in the US crippling Iranian oil infrastructure which wouldn't be hard for them.

2). Attack Israel - this isn't a confrontation that Iran can realistically "win" even if the US don't get involved. It would just be bad for everyone and seems a bit pointless.

3). Closing the Straits of Hormuz would likely end in the sinking of most of the Iranian navy by the US - it's always been stated as a red line for them.

It's entirely possible that the Iranians have overplayed their hand recently, feeling it to be stronger than it is in reality.

At the moment thought it seems pretty hard to predict what is going to happen. Ideally your initial point on the moderates gaining more influence would be nice but really hard to know.

SB


On that last point, this thread is interesting:



Tweets 5 and 11 notably:





Edit: I'm not sure I agree that the US response was as rational as posited here.
[Post edited 3 Jan 2020 11:25]

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:30 - Jan 3 with 2080 viewssoupytwist

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 10:58 - Jan 3 by Guthrum

The political impact of this within Iran could be quite interesting.

There may be much shouting about martyrdom, but the removal of Soleimani from the scene could strenghten the hand of Rouhani and the (relative) moderates if there is nobody as competent and dynamic to take his place.

It's a critical time. With Supreme Leader Khamenei now in his 80s, there will be a succession struggle and with it a decision on the future direction of Iran. Soleimani was a major player in all that (much more so than his nominal commander Hassan Salami (head of the Revolutionary Guard).


John Bolton clearly hopes so:

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:35 - Jan 3 with 2049 viewsGuthrum

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:30 - Jan 3 by soupytwist

John Bolton clearly hopes so:



Think he's looking at something a little more radical than what I was talking about.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:39 - Jan 3 with 2037 viewsGuthrum

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:24 - Jan 3 by Steve_M

On that last point, this thread is interesting:



Tweets 5 and 11 notably:





Edit: I'm not sure I agree that the US response was as rational as posited here.
[Post edited 3 Jan 2020 11:25]


On Tweet 5, it may spark a witch hunt for spies, which could, in itself, prove damaging to Iranian operations and morale.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:39 - Jan 3 with 2038 viewssparks

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:35 - Jan 3 by Guthrum

Think he's looking at something a little more radical than what I was talking about.


Why are people with influence and power when they have no understanding whatsoever of human reactions and psyche?

Hard to think this would result in regime change. more likely to result in people coming together and supporting their regime on principle: same as most humans do when they feel their own are under attack.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:45 - Jan 3 with 2008 viewsGuthrum

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 11:39 - Jan 3 by sparks

Why are people with influence and power when they have no understanding whatsoever of human reactions and psyche?

Hard to think this would result in regime change. more likely to result in people coming together and supporting their regime on principle: same as most humans do when they feel their own are under attack.


Possibly because they've spent too much time moving in a rarefied world of ambition, power struggles, influence and paranoia, where someone else's (or even national) misfortune is an opportunity to seize an advantage. Perhaps that gives them a better insight into the mindset of other powerful people.

Indeed, an event like this can be a useful distraction of anger from the government themselves over the current economic crisis in Iran.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 12:12 - Jan 3 with 1964 viewsGuthrum

Typical. There's a major international crisis and a Test Match while I'm trying to get my tax return done.

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Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 12:13 - Jan 3 with 1944 viewsfooters

Trump doing his bit for world peace again on 12:12 - Jan 3 by Guthrum

Typical. There's a major international crisis and a Test Match while I'm trying to get my tax return done.


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