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Should the government issue guidelines, even a timetable of the level of panic required ?
The Daily Mail has jumped the gun already with warnings that not only could concerns about the virus cause cancer, but far worse could lead to a fall in house prices.
It may have been ok for previous generations to have a few 'Keep calm and carry on posters', or handwritten signs next to bombed shops saying 'business as usual' but this is the 21st century.
Is it safe to eat pot noodles, or rice ?
Should the channel tunnel be closed to stop infectious germs blowing through
Leyton Orient ? Should the ground now be closed ?
This was all predicted by Nostradamus who wrote'
a pestilence shall appear terror shall strike the land of Albion and shall take away many lives
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Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 09:26 - Feb 27 with 7288 views
When Nostrodamus was writing, outbreaks of plague considerably worse than Coronavirus-19 would strike all over Europe every few years.
There's already more panic than strictly necessary. The worst that's likely to happen is the economy collapses because everyone's had to take two weeks off isolated at home. That and raging xenophobia.
The infection patterns of Covid-19 are quite interesting. Apart from the core outbreak in Wuhan, China, the only other significant numbers are in South Korea (a large proportion belonging to a single, exclusivist church), Japan (the vast majority on one cruise ship which happens to be docked there), Italy (in the Milan area only) and Iran (having been somewhat vague about admitting the illness was present in their country). So mostly very concentrated in particular areas.
Also, the numbers worldwide are very low compared with other highly infectious diseases (e.g. Influenza), as are death rates. We're nowhere near a 1918 scenario at this stage.
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 09:57 - Feb 27 by Guthrum
The infection patterns of Covid-19 are quite interesting. Apart from the core outbreak in Wuhan, China, the only other significant numbers are in South Korea (a large proportion belonging to a single, exclusivist church), Japan (the vast majority on one cruise ship which happens to be docked there), Italy (in the Milan area only) and Iran (having been somewhat vague about admitting the illness was present in their country). So mostly very concentrated in particular areas.
Also, the numbers worldwide are very low compared with other highly infectious diseases (e.g. Influenza), as are death rates. We're nowhere near a 1918 scenario at this stage.
You are of course correct we are not at that stage yet but as a civilisation we need to be diligent. Currently seasonal flu is clearly a bigger killer but the whole point of trying to stop Covid19 now is that if we don't it's another virus out there, possibly permanently given it's ability to mutate and that is essentially like adding another flu to the current status quo.
The concentration point is interesting but likely to become less common going forward, it seems to have escaped the nets laid out for it and cases could go up exponentially. Not all countries will do what China did and many will lie (Iran for instance).
A few other points:
- it's got a higher r0 than influenza (~1.3 whereas Covid19 is between 1.5 and 3.5)
- it's got a higher mortality rate than seasonal flu hence if it does get established, when that is added to the higher r0 infection rate it could be pretty bad. Even a small mortality rate is bad if there are huge numbers of infections.
- hopefully Iran are lying about the number of cases they have as the current number of deaths there implies a mortality rate of ~15% which is massively higher than what it was in China and would be extremely bad.
You are totally correct we aren't anywhere near 1918 at the moment and likely won't be.
SB
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Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 10:20 - Feb 27 with 7121 views
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 09:57 - Feb 27 by Guthrum
The infection patterns of Covid-19 are quite interesting. Apart from the core outbreak in Wuhan, China, the only other significant numbers are in South Korea (a large proportion belonging to a single, exclusivist church), Japan (the vast majority on one cruise ship which happens to be docked there), Italy (in the Milan area only) and Iran (having been somewhat vague about admitting the illness was present in their country). So mostly very concentrated in particular areas.
Also, the numbers worldwide are very low compared with other highly infectious diseases (e.g. Influenza), as are death rates. We're nowhere near a 1918 scenario at this stage.
But what level of panic should we be at ?
ranging from
last orders being called at the local social club right up to a black family moving into a Daily Mail reading neighbourhood.
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Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 10:22 - Feb 27 with 7114 views
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 10:11 - Feb 27 by StokieBlue
You are of course correct we are not at that stage yet but as a civilisation we need to be diligent. Currently seasonal flu is clearly a bigger killer but the whole point of trying to stop Covid19 now is that if we don't it's another virus out there, possibly permanently given it's ability to mutate and that is essentially like adding another flu to the current status quo.
The concentration point is interesting but likely to become less common going forward, it seems to have escaped the nets laid out for it and cases could go up exponentially. Not all countries will do what China did and many will lie (Iran for instance).
A few other points:
- it's got a higher r0 than influenza (~1.3 whereas Covid19 is between 1.5 and 3.5)
- it's got a higher mortality rate than seasonal flu hence if it does get established, when that is added to the higher r0 infection rate it could be pretty bad. Even a small mortality rate is bad if there are huge numbers of infections.
- hopefully Iran are lying about the number of cases they have as the current number of deaths there implies a mortality rate of ~15% which is massively higher than what it was in China and would be extremely bad.
You are totally correct we aren't anywhere near 1918 at the moment and likely won't be.
SB
I'm suspecting that about Iran, too. Altho the overall numbers are still quite low, so that may represent a rash of deaths among the most vulnerable before the illness was acknowleged/treated properly.
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 10:22 - Feb 27 by Guthrum
I'm suspecting that about Iran, too. Altho the overall numbers are still quite low, so that may represent a rash of deaths among the most vulnerable before the illness was acknowleged/treated properly.
Just seen this as well, interesting and potentially worrying:
Chinese health officials say that about 14% of patients in Guangdong province who had the coronavirus but recovered and were discharged from hospital have tested positive for the virus again.
Health officials admit they're still learning about the new coronavirus and how it operates within the human body.
The same phenomenon has been reported in Japan, when a woman in her 40s who had recovered and tested negative for the virus then tested positive more than three weeks later.
The authorities in both countries have pledged to continue tracking former patients, even after they've been discharged from hospital.
Being reported by the BBC and Guardian.
SB
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Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 10:48 - Feb 27 with 7056 views
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 09:57 - Feb 27 by Guthrum
The infection patterns of Covid-19 are quite interesting. Apart from the core outbreak in Wuhan, China, the only other significant numbers are in South Korea (a large proportion belonging to a single, exclusivist church), Japan (the vast majority on one cruise ship which happens to be docked there), Italy (in the Milan area only) and Iran (having been somewhat vague about admitting the illness was present in their country). So mostly very concentrated in particular areas.
Also, the numbers worldwide are very low compared with other highly infectious diseases (e.g. Influenza), as are death rates. We're nowhere near a 1918 scenario at this stage.
I may be proved wrong but I think it's being overblown.
When I came back from China I was really ill and the doctor told me to self quarantine for 5 days and my wife and RKD also couldn't see my daughter or grandson during that time for fear of passing on the bug. This was all about a week before Coronavirus hit the news and when it did the city I had been staying in was put into lock down.
If the virus had been in the news when I saw the quack he would have transported me out in a pod. It is currently killing about 2%, and that's of the reported cases, I'm pretty sure they may have counted me as a case if they had known about it then. It is no way like SARS and as you say it isn't reaching flu like figures yet***
***The above may of course be completely inaccurate, I have zero medical training and I can imagine a GP reading this and banging his head on the desk.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 11:40 - Feb 27 by Lord_Lucan
I may be proved wrong but I think it's being overblown.
When I came back from China I was really ill and the doctor told me to self quarantine for 5 days and my wife and RKD also couldn't see my daughter or grandson during that time for fear of passing on the bug. This was all about a week before Coronavirus hit the news and when it did the city I had been staying in was put into lock down.
If the virus had been in the news when I saw the quack he would have transported me out in a pod. It is currently killing about 2%, and that's of the reported cases, I'm pretty sure they may have counted me as a case if they had known about it then. It is no way like SARS and as you say it isn't reaching flu like figures yet***
***The above may of course be completely inaccurate, I have zero medical training and I can imagine a GP reading this and banging his head on the desk.
You're right, it's not like SARS but that doesn't mean it can't be much worse.
SARS was lower in the lungs and thus whilst it had a higher mortality rate it was much harder to pass on. This is why there were only 9000 cases or so over a 9 month period.
Covid19 is higher in the lungs and thus it's easier to pass on to others in human-to-human transfer. It's got a lower mortality rate as it's not as deep in the lungs but that doesn't really matter if it infects 100 times the number of people - it will kill far more. It's already infected more than 10 times the number of people in only 3 months and killed nearly 1000 more than SARS.
There are also worrying outliers like Iran with 15% mortality but I suspect this is just them not being very honest about the number of infections.
SB
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Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 12:04 - Feb 27 with 6824 views
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 11:55 - Feb 27 by StokieBlue
You're right, it's not like SARS but that doesn't mean it can't be much worse.
SARS was lower in the lungs and thus whilst it had a higher mortality rate it was much harder to pass on. This is why there were only 9000 cases or so over a 9 month period.
Covid19 is higher in the lungs and thus it's easier to pass on to others in human-to-human transfer. It's got a lower mortality rate as it's not as deep in the lungs but that doesn't really matter if it infects 100 times the number of people - it will kill far more. It's already infected more than 10 times the number of people in only 3 months and killed nearly 1000 more than SARS.
There are also worrying outliers like Iran with 15% mortality but I suspect this is just them not being very honest about the number of infections.
SB
How does it compare - in number of deaths - to the 'regular flu' that doesn't make the newspapers?
"......Paul Mariner......John Wark...... Brian Tablet...errrrrrr Talbot"
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 12:04 - Feb 27 by BrianTablet
How does it compare - in number of deaths - to the 'regular flu' that doesn't make the newspapers?
Nobody has said that seasonal flu isn't bad. The usual amount of deaths attributed to it in the UK each year is around 600, some years like 2013 there are spikes with a lot more deaths.
That doesn't mean that people shouldn't be concerned and Covid19 shouldn't try and be stopped. Ignoring it will just mean that it becomes a regular virus that is always circulating and we then have deaths from flu and covid 19 every year.
It could very easily pass flu, it's more infectious with a higher r0. I really don't understand the whatabouterry with comparing the two though - flu is here to stay, surely it's best to try and make sure that isn't the case with Covid 19 as well?
SB
[Post edited 27 Feb 2020 12:13]
Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula
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Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 12:12 - Feb 27 with 6787 views
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 12:10 - Feb 27 by StokieBlue
Nobody has said that seasonal flu isn't bad. The usual amount of deaths attributed to it in the UK each year is around 600, some years like 2013 there are spikes with a lot more deaths.
That doesn't mean that people shouldn't be concerned and Covid19 shouldn't try and be stopped. Ignoring it will just mean that it becomes a regular virus that is always circulating and we then have deaths from flu and covid 19 every year.
It could very easily pass flu, it's more infectious with a higher r0. I really don't understand the whatabouterry with comparing the two though - flu is here to stay, surely it's best to try and make sure that isn't the case with Covid 19 as well?
What do you suggest to stop it? Everyone stay at home? The only advice seems to be to wash your hands a lot.
There is a difference between prudence and panicking.
Washing your hands is the best advice at present given there isn't a vaccine and there is unlikely to be one which is usable and in enough numbers until next year. The cases could be huge by then so experts are doing the best they can with their recommendations.
SARS wasn't beaten by a vaccine (there still isn't a vaccine for SARS) - it was beaten using the techniques they are using now and the fact that it wasn't as contagious as Covid 19.
SB
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0
Coronavirus - is it time to panic ? on 12:36 - Feb 27 with 6684 views
What do you suggest to stop it? Everyone stay at home? The only advice seems to be to wash your hands a lot.
The advice is more than 'wash you hands a lot' although it is basic good hygiene. Here goes:
Wash your hands with soap and warm water after coughing, sneezing, going to the toilet or touching your facial area (which you should avoid as much as possible - touching your facial area that is, not going to the toilet).
Try and catch cough and sneezes in a paper hankie if possible (and dispose of that hankie appropriately and as soon as possible afterwards), if you don't have a hankie you will have to use your hand but wash your hands (as above) as soon as possible. Wear a face mask if you must but they are largely ineffective, especially if not used according to the elaborate instructions.
Lead a healthy lifestyle, plenty of fresh food and exercise. The over-eighties are the most vulnerable but also people with long term respiratory illness, heart conditions, diabetes and so on.
And in reply to your earlier post influenza accounts for over a third of a million deaths worldwide each year - it would be less if more people had access to better food, shelter, water and healthcare.
What do you suggest to stop it? Everyone stay at home? The only advice seems to be to wash your hands a lot.
Vaccine specialist on R5l last night was saying that working on producing one for Corovirus19 might achieve a result in a few months' time - or perhaps never ... no-one knows.
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