| The Stats 08:24 - Mar 2 with 3458 views | itfcjoe |
Chances of getting automatic promotion...
9W 1L gives us a 54% chance of top 2
Chances of top 6
80% - 22 points from 10 games
60% - 21 points from 10 games
40% - 20 points from 10 games
20% - 19 points from 10 games
<10% - 18 points from 10 games
<2% - 17 points from 10 games.
That should hit home how much we have to do from here - we basically need somewhere between 20 and 21 points for a coin flip chance of getting in the top 6.
So realistically 6 wins, 3 draws and a defeat from the final 10 games.
The fat lady is warming up her vocal chords
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| The Stats on 08:27 - Mar 2 with 3155 views | Metal_Hacker |
I think she's already on the chorus Joe |  |
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| The Stats on 08:34 - Mar 2 with 3121 views | RegencyBlue |
Frankly I think she's done the concert and is sitting at home with her feet up! |  | | |
| The Stats on 08:34 - Mar 2 with 3121 views | IpswichKnight |
The fat lady has got dressed, warmed up, had the five minute call, she is now taking her mark on the main stage!
I can see a 1-1 tomorrow but think Coventry will turn us over. |  | | |
| The Stats on 08:42 - Mar 2 with 3091 views | Chrisd |
I love how you're clinging to this promotion hope Joe and are still talking positively.
However, our current form from our last 10 games - W3, D2 and L5 = 11 points. Says it all really about our chances. | |
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| The Stats on 08:43 - Mar 2 with 3080 views | Keaneish |
I make it W7, D2, L1 to be guaranteed. |  |
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| The Stats on 08:52 - Mar 2 with 3050 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
To be almost out of the play off race with 10 games to go is pretty sh1te. |  |
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| The Stats on 08:52 - Mar 2 with 3050 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
The amount of must win games we’ve had lately rather undermine the phrase but the next 2 really are crucial. Somehow come away with 6 points and suddenly that looks far less daunting - 15+ points from 8 probably required from a relatively favourable run
I reckon we will actually deliver tomorrow, but expect Coventry will then kill the hope on Saturday |  |
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| The Stats on 08:55 - Mar 2 with 3032 views | textbackup |
I might finger the fat lady just to cheer myself up a bit |  |
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| The Stats on 09:20 - Mar 2 with 2947 views | itfcjoe |
| The Stats on 08:42 - Mar 2 by Chrisd |
I love how you're clinging to this promotion hope Joe and are still talking positively.
However, our current form from our last 10 games - W3, D2 and L5 = 11 points. Says it all really about our chances. |
How is that talking positively? | |
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| The Stats on 09:25 - Mar 2 with 2929 views | Chrisd |
| The Stats on 09:20 - Mar 2 by itfcjoe |
How is that talking positively? |
The fact that, you've taken the time to research all that information. For example, we need this amount of points to achieve etc......that's being positive. Both you and I know we aren't going up though. | |
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| The Stats on 09:26 - Mar 2 with 2918 views | itfcjoe |
| The Stats on 09:25 - Mar 2 by Chrisd |
The fact that, you've taken the time to research all that information. For example, we need this amount of points to achieve etc......that's being positive. Both you and I know we aren't going up though. |
I've literally ended the post saying there is no chance of it happening.
I don't for a second think we can or will do - it was just to give myself and others a show of how far off it we are and what sort of run it will take. | |
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| The Stats on 09:40 - Mar 2 with 2854 views | Chrisd |
| The Stats on 09:26 - Mar 2 by itfcjoe |
I've literally ended the post saying there is no chance of it happening.
I don't for a second think we can or will do - it was just to give myself and others a show of how far off it we are and what sort of run it will take. |
Then that's on me interpreting your post incorrectly, but credit for putting in the ground work. However, I think the realists among us already knew the game was up. | |
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| The Stats on 09:45 - Mar 2 with 2833 views | r2d2 |
Lot of stats there. All irrelevant of course, as we havent a cat in hells chance. |  | | |
| The Stats on 09:46 - Mar 2 with 2831 views | SomethingBlue |
Failure to beat Fleetwood will effectively finish us. | |
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| The Stats on 09:46 - Mar 2 with 2830 views | crossyitfc |
I'm (optimistically) predicting 6W 2D 2L which still only gives us an outside chance. Depressing stuff. |  | | |
| The Stats on 10:01 - Mar 2 with 2768 views | itfcjoe |
| The Stats on 09:46 - Mar 2 by SomethingBlue |
Failure to beat Fleetwood will effectively finish us. |
Yep, a friend spoke to Joey Barton at Blackpool on Saturday, he was apparently very happy when Downes picked up his 10th booking off the season.
They are flying, and under no pressure here, it's definitely one of those car crashes you can see unfolding coming up | |
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| The Stats on 10:14 - Mar 2 with 2706 views | SamWhiteUK |
Where are these numbers from? |  | | |
| The Stats on 10:17 - Mar 2 with 2693 views | itfcjoe |
| The Stats on 10:14 - Mar 2 by SamWhiteUK |
Where are these numbers from? |
SportsClubStats.com which runs simulations
Have been simplified to an extent as may have been 82% and 58% just to make it easier for people to understand quickly | |
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| The Stats on 10:20 - Mar 2 with 2672 views | PJH |
| The Stats on 10:14 - Mar 2 by SamWhiteUK |
Where are these numbers from? |
From common sense I would think.
You generally need about 73 points to have much chance of finishing 6th so a minimum of 21 points from now on in to make that. |  | | |
| The Stats on 10:59 - Mar 2 with 2605 views | SamWhiteUK |
| The Stats on 10:20 - Mar 2 by PJH |
From common sense I would think.
You generally need about 73 points to have much chance of finishing 6th so a minimum of 21 points from now on in to make that. |
Right, but that isn't enough to form these very precise statistics, is it? Hence my question | | | |
| The Stats on 11:17 - Mar 2 with 2575 views | Guthrum |
The overture is finished and she's half-way towards the big aria. Her lover has already gone off to battle in a huff and valkyries are hunting Siegfried.
Not denigrating those teams, but if we couldn't beat 20th-placed Wimbledon or Blackpool in 14th, then it suggests we're going to struggle to get the wins we need against the lower-half teams, let alone Doncaster, Portsmouth, Fleetwood and Coventry. |  |
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| The Stats on 12:08 - Mar 2 with 2510 views | peterleeblue |
| The Stats on 11:17 - Mar 2 by Guthrum |
The overture is finished and she's half-way towards the big aria. Her lover has already gone off to battle in a huff and valkyries are hunting Siegfried.
Not denigrating those teams, but if we couldn't beat 20th-placed Wimbledon or Blackpool in 14th, then it suggests we're going to struggle to get the wins we need against the lower-half teams, let alone Doncaster, Portsmouth, Fleetwood and Coventry. |
Oh what a time to be alive.
Shouldn't grumble really i did have 78, 81, 92, 2000, 2001
Nearly 20 years of Total Sh!te |  | | |
| The Stats on 12:28 - Mar 2 with 2455 views | PJH |
| The Stats on 10:59 - Mar 2 by SamWhiteUK |
Right, but that isn't enough to form these very precise statistics, is it? Hence my question |
No but it is common sense that you probably need a minimum of 21 points from the last 10 games to have a reasonable chance and also common sense that the more points you get the better the chances are.
Granted it does not give you those precise statistics but it does not take a lot of working out to come to the conclusion that to have much chance at all we need 7 wins or 6 wins and 3 draws.
10 wins would be nice because then we might not need the playoffs. | | | |
| The Stats on 16:06 - Mar 2 with 2315 views | Swansea_Blue |
Some more stats...
We've had 16 permanent managers (excluding caretakers) since John Duncan started in 1937.
Out of those 16, Lambo is:
Points per game = 14th
Win %age = 14th
GF per game = 15th
GA per game = 7th
Av GD per game = 13th
Full stats here below if anyone wants to copy/paste into a spreadsheet. I've used the managerial stats from the stats page on here, with Lamberts updated (disclaimer - they include league games only for Lambert; I haven't had time to add in cup games, not that we've had many).
Manager Date Joined Date Left Days P HW HD HL HF HA AW AD AL AF AA PTS Pts/Game GF/game GA/game GD overall Win %
Sir Alf Ramsey 01-Aug-55 01-Apr-63 2800 354 107 34 34 407 235 58 40 81 271 337 569 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 46.6%
George Burley 28-Dec-94 11-Oct-02 2843 397 110 40 47 339 195 68 53 79 252 284 627 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.3 44.8%
John Duncan 16-Jun-87 08-May-90 1057 150 43 14 18 126 67 22 15 38 88 132 224 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 43.3%
Joe Royle 28-Oct-02 11-May-06 1290 184 50 17 27 178 129 28 31 31 122 128 282 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 42.4%
Sir Bobby Robson 13-Jan-69 07-Jul-82 4923 656 184 72 68 555 291 94 91 147 370 483 997 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 42.4%
Bill McGarry 01-Oct-64 23-Nov-68 1514 192 53 28 13 199 107 27 31 40 118 159 299 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 41.7%
Scott Duncan 01-Nov-37 01-Aug-55 6481 447 127 43 53 429 263 48 58 118 240 436 626 1.4 1.5 1.6 -0.1 39.1%
Jim Magilton 05-Jun-06 22-Apr-09 1052 148 40 18 17 124 75 16 23 34 80 108 209 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.1 37.8%
Mick McCarthy 01-Nov-12 10-Apr-18 1985 279 64 41 32 197 134 41 37 64 146 201 393 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.0 37.6%
Bobby Ferguson 08-Jul-82 20-May-87 1777 251 61 30 35 189 126 31 31 63 134 186 337 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.0 36.7%
Roy Keane 23-Apr-09 07-Jan-11 624 81 16 12 10 45 41 12 13 18 53 65 109 1.3 1.2 1.3 -0.1 34.6%
Paul Jewell 13-Jan-11 24-Oct-12 649 85 17 7 18 67 67 12 11 20 54 80 105 1.2 1.4 1.7 -0.3 34.1%
John Lyall 10-May-90 05-Dec-94 1670 220 48 30 34 163 139 23 41 44 112 160 284 1.3 1.3 1.4 -0.1 32.3%
Paul Lambert 29-Oct-18 Current 490 65 9 11 11 40 38 9 9 16 31 48 74 1.1 1.1 1.3 -0.2 27.7%
Jackie Milburn 01-Apr-63 30-Sep-64 548 67 12 8 13 58 68 4 7 23 37 94 63 0.9 1.4 2.4 -1.0 23.9%
Paul Hurst 30-May-18 25-Oct-18 148 15 0 5 2 5 9 1 2 5 7 14 10 0.7 0.8 1.5 -0.7 6.7% |  |
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| The Stats on 16:16 - Mar 2 with 2291 views | itfcjoe |
| The Stats on 16:06 - Mar 2 by Swansea_Blue |
Some more stats...
We've had 16 permanent managers (excluding caretakers) since John Duncan started in 1937.
Out of those 16, Lambo is:
Points per game = 14th
Win %age = 14th
GF per game = 15th
GA per game = 7th
Av GD per game = 13th
Full stats here below if anyone wants to copy/paste into a spreadsheet. I've used the managerial stats from the stats page on here, with Lamberts updated (disclaimer - they include league games only for Lambert; I haven't had time to add in cup games, not that we've had many).
Manager Date Joined Date Left Days P HW HD HL HF HA AW AD AL AF AA PTS Pts/Game GF/game GA/game GD overall Win %
Sir Alf Ramsey 01-Aug-55 01-Apr-63 2800 354 107 34 34 407 235 58 40 81 271 337 569 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 46.6%
George Burley 28-Dec-94 11-Oct-02 2843 397 110 40 47 339 195 68 53 79 252 284 627 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.3 44.8%
John Duncan 16-Jun-87 08-May-90 1057 150 43 14 18 126 67 22 15 38 88 132 224 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 43.3%
Joe Royle 28-Oct-02 11-May-06 1290 184 50 17 27 178 129 28 31 31 122 128 282 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 42.4%
Sir Bobby Robson 13-Jan-69 07-Jul-82 4923 656 184 72 68 555 291 94 91 147 370 483 997 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 42.4%
Bill McGarry 01-Oct-64 23-Nov-68 1514 192 53 28 13 199 107 27 31 40 118 159 299 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 41.7%
Scott Duncan 01-Nov-37 01-Aug-55 6481 447 127 43 53 429 263 48 58 118 240 436 626 1.4 1.5 1.6 -0.1 39.1%
Jim Magilton 05-Jun-06 22-Apr-09 1052 148 40 18 17 124 75 16 23 34 80 108 209 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.1 37.8%
Mick McCarthy 01-Nov-12 10-Apr-18 1985 279 64 41 32 197 134 41 37 64 146 201 393 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.0 37.6%
Bobby Ferguson 08-Jul-82 20-May-87 1777 251 61 30 35 189 126 31 31 63 134 186 337 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.0 36.7%
Roy Keane 23-Apr-09 07-Jan-11 624 81 16 12 10 45 41 12 13 18 53 65 109 1.3 1.2 1.3 -0.1 34.6%
Paul Jewell 13-Jan-11 24-Oct-12 649 85 17 7 18 67 67 12 11 20 54 80 105 1.2 1.4 1.7 -0.3 34.1%
John Lyall 10-May-90 05-Dec-94 1670 220 48 30 34 163 139 23 41 44 112 160 284 1.3 1.3 1.4 -0.1 32.3%
Paul Lambert 29-Oct-18 Current 490 65 9 11 11 40 38 9 9 16 31 48 74 1.1 1.1 1.3 -0.2 27.7%
Jackie Milburn 01-Apr-63 30-Sep-64 548 67 12 8 13 58 68 4 7 23 37 94 63 0.9 1.4 2.4 -1.0 23.9%
Paul Hurst 30-May-18 25-Oct-18 148 15 0 5 2 5 9 1 2 5 7 14 10 0.7 0.8 1.5 -0.7 6.7% |
I think the Goals For average per game is the biggest problem bearing in mind the level we are now playing at | |
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