| Coronavirus 07:30 - Mar 11 with 9094 views | Swailsey |
I’m aware there’s been loads of threads on this, but I was hoping to strip it back to basics if possible.
As someone with mad OCD and who is prone to hypochondria, I’ve been trying to avoid reading too much and just continuing with my standard hand washing/general OTT (by usual standards) hygiene methods. I feel as though I’m teetering on hyper-analysis on how I’m feeling every second of the day, which is ironically making me feel ill.
Can someone explain why this is being treated with such urgency, compared to say the standard flu? I’m not coming from a conspiracy angle, but to me it seems:
1) Fewer people have been infected than with the usual flu
2) Fewer people have died than with the usual flu
3) It seems to be the vulnerable (as with flu) who are dying
Have we just become complacent with the normal winter flu problem, or is it because:
1) It’s a new virus
2) It’s spreading so fast
3) There is the fear of mutation
Would be interested to hear the thoughts of people closer to it, as it’s hard for me to get an objective view.
I don’t remember this type of mass panic with swine flu or other things before. Is it social media? False rumours circulating? *
*Again, not insinuating at all that anything untoward is happening. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 7:34]
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| Coronavirus on 07:40 - Mar 11 with 3968 views | DanTheMan |
"Can someone explain why this is being treated with such urgency, compared to say the standard flu? I’m not coming from a conspiracy angle, but to me it seems:"
OK, the comparison is a train we can't stop but it's a bad comparison. This is a completely different respiratory disease.
"1) Fewer people have been infected than with the usual flu"
True, but we're nowhere near the worst of it. We're a few months away from the peak.
"2) Fewer people have died than with the usual flu"
See above, basically.
"3) It seems to be the vulnerable (as with flu) who are dying"
Again true, however some of the estimates of the mortality rate have this as ten times deadlier. Now imagine this going round every year as a seasonal virus.
Countries don't generally completely shut over hysteria.
On the complaceny:
"1) It’s a new virus"
This is one reason this is bad, it's new so we have no treatment. If you get it then best you can do is treat the symptoms.
"2) It’s spreading so fast"
Also true, this is probably going to be the first pandemic since HIV, and even that you could quite easily avoid. Going back further... probably Spanish Influenza.
"3) There is the fear of mutation"
Not sure about this. Obviously if it mutates fast enough to become seasonal that would be a problem.
I know that the media tends to hype things up, like swine flu and the like. However this is genuinely pretty serious. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 7:49]
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| Coronavirus on 07:41 - Mar 11 with 3964 views | Herbivore |
I think I saw a statistic the other day that showed there have already been more confirmed cases of coronavirus globally than there were of things like swine flu or SARS. The genie was already out of the bottle by the time measures were taken to contain coronavirus which means it is much more likely to spread widely than some of the other illnesses were. Also, I believe that because the symptoms are really quite mild for most (not even as bad as regular flu) it means many people don't know they've got it so run the risk of infecting others. That's partly why it's spread as it has. It's not that it is esepcially deadly in terms of fatality rates, it's more that it is seen as very likely to be widespread and as a result will lead to a large number of fatalities. Also, in the UK at least, we can vaccinate vulnerable people against flu in a way we can't with this. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 07:46 - Mar 11 with 3920 views | StokieBlue |
On my phone so can't go into too much depth:
1). Fewer people have been infected as it's a new disease and measures have been put into place. It's r0 (how many people are infected by each infected person) and mortally rate (percentage who die) is higher than flu (much higher in some areas and cohorts).
2). This is simply a function of less people getting it. If the same number got it as flu then far more people would die than with flu.
3). Does that matter? It's bad if anyone dies but you are right, it's worse amongst the older population.
The issue is the potential. If it gets as big as the flu the number of deaths will be large and the knock-on effects to the health services would be enormous. All the action is geared to stopping it being as big as the flu given its a more deadly disease.
Comparing it to the flu isn't helpful though, it's tending to be used to dismiss the virus when it's actually not a great comparison. For instance the mortality rate in Italy is x60 that of flu.
The best thing to do is wash your hands and follow the government advice and try not to worry about it.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Coronavirus on 07:51 - Mar 11 with 3883 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 07:41 - Mar 11 by Herbivore |
I think I saw a statistic the other day that showed there have already been more confirmed cases of coronavirus globally than there were of things like swine flu or SARS. The genie was already out of the bottle by the time measures were taken to contain coronavirus which means it is much more likely to spread widely than some of the other illnesses were. Also, I believe that because the symptoms are really quite mild for most (not even as bad as regular flu) it means many people don't know they've got it so run the risk of infecting others. That's partly why it's spread as it has. It's not that it is esepcially deadly in terms of fatality rates, it's more that it is seen as very likely to be widespread and as a result will lead to a large number of fatalities. Also, in the UK at least, we can vaccinate vulnerable people against flu in a way we can't with this. |
It's r0 is much higher than SARS but the mortally rate is lower.
There have already been x15 the amount of cases that SARS and that's going to increase a lot more. Even though it's less deadly the fact there are more cases means it's more deadly overall. The number of deaths is already at x4 SARS and increasing.
You are right that because people can spread it without having symptoms it's hard to contain.
Mortality rates seem to vary hugely between cohort and location. For instance Italy is running at 6% whilst SK is at 1%. For the over 80s in China it's 20%. That could be genetics or simply different types of population ages, they don't know yet.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Coronavirus on 07:52 - Mar 11 with 3866 views | m14_blue |
One thing I would like to know is what the realistic best case scenario is now? |  | | |
| Coronavirus on 07:54 - Mar 11 with 3853 views | Herbivore |
| Coronavirus on 07:52 - Mar 11 by m14_blue |
One thing I would like to know is what the realistic best case scenario is now? |
That the peak hits in the summer rather than now and that infection rates can be measured in the thousands rather than the millions. | |
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| Coronavirus on 07:57 - Mar 11 with 3842 views | DanTheMan |
| Coronavirus on 07:52 - Mar 11 by m14_blue |
One thing I would like to know is what the realistic best case scenario is now? |
Best case short term is that we manage the virus in such a way that we do not overload the hospitals.
If we're extremely lucky someone finds a form of treatment so we're not just treating the symptoms. | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:02 - Mar 11 with 3806 views | m14_blue |
Cheers both. | | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:03 - Mar 11 with 3796 views | giant_stow |
As a fellow ocd bod, but ex 50 times an hour hand-washer, this is definitely all a trial on the mental front, so totally get you there mr.
The trouble I always find with ocd is the line where 'real' stops and ocd starts. How much hand washing is sensible, but when does that tip into ocd hand washing...?
I don't really have an answer unfortunately - just trying to stick to the 30-40 secs rules and no more and then not be tempted to do it again.
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| Coronavirus on 08:05 - Mar 11 with 3778 views | DanTheMan |
| Coronavirus on 08:01 - Mar 11 by Swailsey |
Thanks all, really informative.
Re. your point about treating the symptoms, is it as simple as if you’re relatively healthy, you could have it without even knowing (ie thinking it’s a bad cold) but if you’re at risk, then your symptoms are worse/potentially fatal?
Surely that makes it incredibly hard to treat as you’d need to test everyone.
For example, I had a horrendous virus at the start of Feb, completely laid me out. That was before the urgency was intensified. If that had happened now, I presumably would have to go for tests, even though I’m sure it can’t have been that? [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 8:02]
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"Re. your point about treating the symptoms, is it as simple as if you’re relatively healthy, you could have it without even knowing (ie thinking it’s a bad cold) but if you’re at risk, then your symptoms are worse/potentially fatal?"
Correct. You could show very mild symptoms and pass it on. That's one of the issues with this.
"Surely that makes it incredibly hard to treat as you’d need to test everyone."
Correct. Testing is a big issue.
"For example, I had a horrendous virus at the start of Feb, completely laid me out. That was before the urgency was intensified. If that had happened now, I presumably would have to go for tests, even though I’m sure it can’t have been that?"
Given you're fairly young (I think!) you'd either be tested or just asked to quarantine. I'm not sure how they are choosing who to test here. | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:07 - Mar 11 with 3772 views | BloomBlue |
Social media is certainly adding to the problem especially with fake news.
In simple terms it's a new virus which we dont have a cure for yet.
However we have to balance that with the fact we have cure for the common flu and that still kills 1000s every year. Most of those deaths are of people who already existing conditions and it seems the same with Corona.
There is definitely panic, more people are killed on the roads in China than from Corona but you dont see governments shutting down large areas of a country to prevent road deaths.
The difference with Corona is no cure yet and the feasibility it could mutate. But we've faced bigger virus dangers than this Spanish flu the perfect example.
Different Countries are trying different things nothing 100% is working 100% yet. China locked down and their rates of infection are slowing. Italy locked down the north and some experts said they locked down too early and that initial lock down didnt work and now they have had to lock down the whole country. I guess some would argue maybe they didnt lock down early enough.
But how do you completely lock down a country?
But basically based on previous viruses like SARS good personal hygiene like washing hands with help prevent the spread, it appears some locking down of people helps, but like the flu it will spread. Remember that's life our bodies are constantly fighting viruses and building up our defences it's how the human body is built and survives.
Don't panic, remember 70% of what you read on the internet is fake and listen to the NHS experts advising the Gov. As someone said on the TV at the weekend those NHS experts (chief medical advisor) "is the adult in the room" |  | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:12 - Mar 11 with 3727 views | Swailsey |
| Coronavirus on 08:03 - Mar 11 by giant_stow |
As a fellow ocd bod, but ex 50 times an hour hand-washer, this is definitely all a trial on the mental front, so totally get you there mr.
The trouble I always find with ocd is the line where 'real' stops and ocd starts. How much hand washing is sensible, but when does that tip into ocd hand washing...?
I don't really have an answer unfortunately - just trying to stick to the 30-40 secs rules and no more and then not be tempted to do it again.
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I get you completely. That’s potentially why I’ve been quite blase about it, as I know it could spiral.
I don’t know about you, but I’m finding it quite helpful to just strictly follow the guidelines, as that’s almost out of the monster’s control then.
The only thing I am doing now is washing my hands at a sink at work before making a tea, even if I’ve washed them in the bathroom - due to the 3 shared doors I have to open on the way.
Stay strong friend. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 8:21]
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| Who said: "Colin Healy made Cesc Fabregas look like Colin Healy"? | We miss you TLA |
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| Coronavirus on 08:12 - Mar 11 with 3725 views | BrianTablet |
| Coronavirus on 08:07 - Mar 11 by BloomBlue |
Social media is certainly adding to the problem especially with fake news.
In simple terms it's a new virus which we dont have a cure for yet.
However we have to balance that with the fact we have cure for the common flu and that still kills 1000s every year. Most of those deaths are of people who already existing conditions and it seems the same with Corona.
There is definitely panic, more people are killed on the roads in China than from Corona but you dont see governments shutting down large areas of a country to prevent road deaths.
The difference with Corona is no cure yet and the feasibility it could mutate. But we've faced bigger virus dangers than this Spanish flu the perfect example.
Different Countries are trying different things nothing 100% is working 100% yet. China locked down and their rates of infection are slowing. Italy locked down the north and some experts said they locked down too early and that initial lock down didnt work and now they have had to lock down the whole country. I guess some would argue maybe they didnt lock down early enough.
But how do you completely lock down a country?
But basically based on previous viruses like SARS good personal hygiene like washing hands with help prevent the spread, it appears some locking down of people helps, but like the flu it will spread. Remember that's life our bodies are constantly fighting viruses and building up our defences it's how the human body is built and survives.
Don't panic, remember 70% of what you read on the internet is fake and listen to the NHS experts advising the Gov. As someone said on the TV at the weekend those NHS experts (chief medical advisor) "is the adult in the room" |
There's a cure for common flu? Really? |  |
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| Coronavirus on 08:15 - Mar 11 with 3702 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Do you have some hand sanitised going spare? |  |
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| Coronavirus on 08:15 - Mar 11 with 3703 views | Herbivore |
| Coronavirus on 08:12 - Mar 11 by BrianTablet |
There's a cure for common flu? Really? |
I liked him railing against fake news whilst making a post that is almost entirely fake news. | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:16 - Mar 11 with 3692 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 08:05 - Mar 11 by DanTheMan |
"Re. your point about treating the symptoms, is it as simple as if you’re relatively healthy, you could have it without even knowing (ie thinking it’s a bad cold) but if you’re at risk, then your symptoms are worse/potentially fatal?"
Correct. You could show very mild symptoms and pass it on. That's one of the issues with this.
"Surely that makes it incredibly hard to treat as you’d need to test everyone."
Correct. Testing is a big issue.
"For example, I had a horrendous virus at the start of Feb, completely laid me out. That was before the urgency was intensified. If that had happened now, I presumably would have to go for tests, even though I’m sure it can’t have been that?"
Given you're fairly young (I think!) you'd either be tested or just asked to quarantine. I'm not sure how they are choosing who to test here. |
You can actually show no symptoms at all and pass it on.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Coronavirus on 08:16 - Mar 11 with 3691 views | BrianTablet |
| Coronavirus on 07:40 - Mar 11 by DanTheMan |
"Can someone explain why this is being treated with such urgency, compared to say the standard flu? I’m not coming from a conspiracy angle, but to me it seems:"
OK, the comparison is a train we can't stop but it's a bad comparison. This is a completely different respiratory disease.
"1) Fewer people have been infected than with the usual flu"
True, but we're nowhere near the worst of it. We're a few months away from the peak.
"2) Fewer people have died than with the usual flu"
See above, basically.
"3) It seems to be the vulnerable (as with flu) who are dying"
Again true, however some of the estimates of the mortality rate have this as ten times deadlier. Now imagine this going round every year as a seasonal virus.
Countries don't generally completely shut over hysteria.
On the complaceny:
"1) It’s a new virus"
This is one reason this is bad, it's new so we have no treatment. If you get it then best you can do is treat the symptoms.
"2) It’s spreading so fast"
Also true, this is probably going to be the first pandemic since HIV, and even that you could quite easily avoid. Going back further... probably Spanish Influenza.
"3) There is the fear of mutation"
Not sure about this. Obviously if it mutates fast enough to become seasonal that would be a problem.
I know that the media tends to hype things up, like swine flu and the like. However this is genuinely pretty serious. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 7:49]
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That chart compares the US and China, which seems odd.
Am I missing something?
How many flu victims get tested each year? | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:16 - Mar 11 with 3688 views | DanTheMan |
| Coronavirus on 08:16 - Mar 11 by StokieBlue |
You can actually show no symptoms at all and pass it on.
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I had heard that but didn't want to put it in as I wasn't sure! | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:17 - Mar 11 with 3687 views | BrianTablet |
| Coronavirus on 08:15 - Mar 11 by Herbivore |
I liked him railing against fake news whilst making a post that is almost entirely fake news. |
I think it's the fact that we get our facts from message boards that is the real worry :-) | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:18 - Mar 11 with 3678 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 08:16 - Mar 11 by DanTheMan |
I had heard that but didn't want to put it in as I wasn't sure! |
That's why it's so hard to stop, by the time you show symptoms you might have been passing it on for up to two weeks.
That's why Greece has closed schools with only 89 cases. Very proactive attempt to stop it.
At the moment though, there is still a lot we don't know.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Coronavirus on 08:19 - Mar 11 with 3673 views | giant_stow |
| Coronavirus on 08:12 - Mar 11 by Swailsey |
I get you completely. That’s potentially why I’ve been quite blase about it, as I know it could spiral.
I don’t know about you, but I’m finding it quite helpful to just strictly follow the guidelines, as that’s almost out of the monster’s control then.
The only thing I am doing now is washing my hands at a sink at work before making a tea, even if I’ve washed them in the bathroom - due to the 3 shared doors I have to open on the way.
Stay strong friend. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 8:21]
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" That’s potentially why I’ve been quite blase about it, as I know it could spiral." = snap. Totally get you.
ocd is a real bitch, but as you say, those guidelines are keeping me sane.
Likewise fella. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 8:19]
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| Coronavirus on 08:25 - Mar 11 with 3630 views | HARRY10 |
| Coronavirus on 08:01 - Mar 11 by Swailsey |
Thanks all, really informative.
Re. your point about treating the symptoms, is it as simple as if you’re relatively healthy, you could have it without even knowing (ie thinking it’s a bad cold) but if you’re at risk, then your symptoms are worse/potentially fatal?
Surely that makes it incredibly hard to treat as you’d need to test everyone.
For example, I had a horrendous virus at the start of Feb, completely laid me out. That was before the urgency was intensified. If that had happened now, I presumably would have to go for tests, even though I’m sure it can’t have been that? [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 8:02]
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The real point is that we do not know - despite the advice to wear garlic. walk backwards chanting of put on a dust mask.
The nearest equivilant seems to be that which was refered to in 1918 as Spanish Flu. There it slowed down but came back (mutated) a few months alter and killed verty quickly those who were yung and deemed healthy - before ending very quickly.
With that there were a fair number of variables - worse cases being moved to rear area hospiytals, a wave of untested aspirin coming onto the market and the likelyhood of thatose suffering the stresses of war having a lowering of the immune system.
The comment about medieval practices is one where people want to feel the need to have control. With OCD it can be endlessly folding towels ahveinmg a strict routine on leab=ving the house (methodically checking first) and as you say repeated hand washing.
The problem there is that alythough folk are capable of understanding those actions are not needed, the concern if they are not done is far greater than the concern over carrying out those acts. Something not understood by those not having this condition.
What we are seeing here is an exhortation by the authorities that allows folk to address theitr concerns about this virus by 'doing something' ie taking some conytrol... hand washing. That basic hygeine needs to be encouraged is another matter.
It is the benefits of providing something to do that is what is needed. As contrary to what the numpties elsewhere claim I do not or have not stated that good hygeine in regard to handwashing should not be carried out or can helpprevent the transmission of germs.
With your condition the best thing is to recognise it is a condition. Understand why certain things are done and understand that there is not something fundementally wrong with you. Work through it, try not to let it dominate your day but maybe take a 'hey ho' attitude do what you feel you have to do and try to focus on what positives there are in your life. Otherwise you have my sympathy or better my undersatnding. | | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:34 - Mar 11 with 3597 views | ElephantintheRoom |
| Coronavirus on 07:40 - Mar 11 by DanTheMan |
"Can someone explain why this is being treated with such urgency, compared to say the standard flu? I’m not coming from a conspiracy angle, but to me it seems:"
OK, the comparison is a train we can't stop but it's a bad comparison. This is a completely different respiratory disease.
"1) Fewer people have been infected than with the usual flu"
True, but we're nowhere near the worst of it. We're a few months away from the peak.
"2) Fewer people have died than with the usual flu"
See above, basically.
"3) It seems to be the vulnerable (as with flu) who are dying"
Again true, however some of the estimates of the mortality rate have this as ten times deadlier. Now imagine this going round every year as a seasonal virus.
Countries don't generally completely shut over hysteria.
On the complaceny:
"1) It’s a new virus"
This is one reason this is bad, it's new so we have no treatment. If you get it then best you can do is treat the symptoms.
"2) It’s spreading so fast"
Also true, this is probably going to be the first pandemic since HIV, and even that you could quite easily avoid. Going back further... probably Spanish Influenza.
"3) There is the fear of mutation"
Not sure about this. Obviously if it mutates fast enough to become seasonal that would be a problem.
I know that the media tends to hype things up, like swine flu and the like. However this is genuinely pretty serious. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 7:49]
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You wont get a balanced answer on this one because it all depends how you define mortality due to flu.
The 10,000 - 15,000 figure is disputed right across the medical profession as those don't die from flu - rather from underlying and other conditions by and large. They could have died 'with flu' rather than because of it.
Those who talk up the danger of flu are perhaps doing so because of a vested interest... and the market for a corona virus vaccine will be huge - and probably largely ineffectuial, just as the flu vaccines can only protect you against strains that a few worthies think might occur as opposed to the ones that do occur.
But your underlying point is a good one... at least 10,000 people have died every year since the first world war from flu... and seemingly nobody cares overmuch | |
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