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Herd immunity 07:29 - Mar 13 with 19756 viewsbluelagos

Ok, so watching the newsnight interview (thx whoever suggested watching it) and it seems we are taking the approach of wanting the population to develop immunity.


A few thoughts / questions.

Is this actually our policy or was it just an opinion from an informed advisor?

If CV could kill you, why does it matter if you get it now or in say the autumn?

If there is an overall benefit from herd immunity, why are we emcouraging people of wash hands etc. We should surely be solely nessaging to isolate the vulnerable and encouraging preventative measures for those in contact with the vulnerable? (If we want herd immunity)

Thoughts?
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 7:36]

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Herd immunity on 07:39 - Mar 13 with 6217 viewsNo9

Jeremy Hunt was very critical of government last night came very close to condemning them for complacency.

Newsnight has developed into crap = poor presenters bad producers & editors
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Herd immunity on 07:41 - Mar 13 with 6203 viewssparks

Because if everyone gets it in the next 8 weeks the medical services will be utterly overwhelmed.

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Herd immunity on 07:41 - Mar 13 with 6197 viewsbluelagos

Herd immunity on 07:39 - Mar 13 by No9

Jeremy Hunt was very critical of government last night came very close to condemning them for complacency.

Newsnight has developed into crap = poor presenters bad producers & editors


You digress No. 9 :-)

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Herd immunity on 07:43 - Mar 13 with 6188 viewsDanTheMan

"Is this actually our policy or was it just an opinion from an informed advisor?"

I don't think it is official (written) policy, but they did suggest that is kind of what they are going for. A slow immunity building up through communities over the next few months.

"If CV could kill you, why does it matter if you get it now or in say the autumn?"

We don't want everyone getting it at the same time in the same place, like in Italy. You overwhelm a local health service and then they start having to make some very horrible choices.

"If there is an overall benefit from herd immunity, why are we emcouraging people of wash hands etc. We should surely be solely nessaging to isolate the vulnerable and encouraging preventative measures for those in contact with the vulnerable? (If we want herd immunity)"

To limit the spread within communities would be my guess. This is going to spread regardless, but it's about delaying that spread as long as you can to as many people as you can.

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Herd immunity on 07:45 - Mar 13 with 6169 viewsHerbivore

Our position seems to be based on fatalism and not much else.

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Herd immunity on 07:45 - Mar 13 with 6170 viewsbluelagos

Herd immunity on 07:41 - Mar 13 by sparks

Because if everyone gets it in the next 8 weeks the medical services will be utterly overwhelmed.


So we want it out there, just not too soon/ all at once. Makes sense cheers.

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Herd immunity on 07:46 - Mar 13 with 6164 viewsHerbivore

Herd immunity on 07:43 - Mar 13 by DanTheMan

"Is this actually our policy or was it just an opinion from an informed advisor?"

I don't think it is official (written) policy, but they did suggest that is kind of what they are going for. A slow immunity building up through communities over the next few months.

"If CV could kill you, why does it matter if you get it now or in say the autumn?"

We don't want everyone getting it at the same time in the same place, like in Italy. You overwhelm a local health service and then they start having to make some very horrible choices.

"If there is an overall benefit from herd immunity, why are we emcouraging people of wash hands etc. We should surely be solely nessaging to isolate the vulnerable and encouraging preventative measures for those in contact with the vulnerable? (If we want herd immunity)"

To limit the spread within communities would be my guess. This is going to spread regardless, but it's about delaying that spread as long as you can to as many people as you can.


Although we're taking very few measures to delay the spread in comparison with other countries.

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Herd immunity on 07:48 - Mar 13 with 6151 viewsbluelagos

Herd immunity on 07:43 - Mar 13 by DanTheMan

"Is this actually our policy or was it just an opinion from an informed advisor?"

I don't think it is official (written) policy, but they did suggest that is kind of what they are going for. A slow immunity building up through communities over the next few months.

"If CV could kill you, why does it matter if you get it now or in say the autumn?"

We don't want everyone getting it at the same time in the same place, like in Italy. You overwhelm a local health service and then they start having to make some very horrible choices.

"If there is an overall benefit from herd immunity, why are we emcouraging people of wash hands etc. We should surely be solely nessaging to isolate the vulnerable and encouraging preventative measures for those in contact with the vulnerable? (If we want herd immunity)"

To limit the spread within communities would be my guess. This is going to spread regardless, but it's about delaying that spread as long as you can to as many people as you can.


Cheers Dan. Makes sense.

Now if you can tell me what to do about my collapsing investments* :-)

*seems like a very minor issue considering the seriousness of what we are entering.

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Herd immunity on 07:50 - Mar 13 with 6146 viewsDanTheMan

Herd immunity on 07:48 - Mar 13 by bluelagos

Cheers Dan. Makes sense.

Now if you can tell me what to do about my collapsing investments* :-)

*seems like a very minor issue considering the seriousness of what we are entering.


"Now if you can tell me what to do about my collapsing investments* :-)"

At work the advise was "wait".

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Herd immunity on 07:52 - Mar 13 with 6137 viewsDanTheMan

Herd immunity on 07:46 - Mar 13 by Herbivore

Although we're taking very few measures to delay the spread in comparison with other countries.


Correct. And again I don't know this to be sure but from what I could tell yesterday they weren't 100% sure those measures were effective long term (e.g. for 3-6 months).

What I could gather yesterday is that if you shut everything down or most things down like say Italy, then when you reopen everything but nobody has had it still, it will just come back and you have to start over.

That's the hypothesis anyway. I can see the logic in it.

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Herd immunity on 07:56 - Mar 13 with 6118 viewsBloomBlue

Herd immunity on 07:46 - Mar 13 by Herbivore

Although we're taking very few measures to delay the spread in comparison with other countries.


Each Country will be different based on different factors but you are correct UK, Holland and Germany are taking a different approach.

I thought this article was interesting :
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantin

Especially
"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".

The point being made yesterday by the Gov is if you close the schools a lot of grandparents will have to look after the kids especially if the parents work in critical services
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Herd immunity on 08:02 - Mar 13 with 6082 viewsHerbivore

Herd immunity on 07:52 - Mar 13 by DanTheMan

Correct. And again I don't know this to be sure but from what I could tell yesterday they weren't 100% sure those measures were effective long term (e.g. for 3-6 months).

What I could gather yesterday is that if you shut everything down or most things down like say Italy, then when you reopen everything but nobody has had it still, it will just come back and you have to start over.

That's the hypothesis anyway. I can see the logic in it.


But if the purpose is to delay the peak and slow the spread then surely containment measures that work even in the short term need to be pursued? I don't think these countries think it'll just go away but containing it in the short term buys time and stops services being overwhelmed. We seem to be sleepwalking towards the kind of scenario Italy experienced.

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Herd immunity on 08:10 - Mar 13 with 6054 viewsDanTheMan

Herd immunity on 08:02 - Mar 13 by Herbivore

But if the purpose is to delay the peak and slow the spread then surely containment measures that work even in the short term need to be pursued? I don't think these countries think it'll just go away but containing it in the short term buys time and stops services being overwhelmed. We seem to be sleepwalking towards the kind of scenario Italy experienced.


I'm just basically repeating what they said yesterday in the press conference, probably in a poor way.

I'm in no real position to criticise them, none of us are really. From other (non-government) sources I've read have basically said there is no "correct" way of doing this, especially when we know relatively little about this virus.

That said, even in my local paper there are two opposing views from the same university. One, a professor in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, is saying it's sensible and another, professor of molecular virology, is saying that because most people present with just cold symptoms, self isolation should be further spread.

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Herd immunity on 08:13 - Mar 13 with 6036 viewsHerbivore

Herd immunity on 08:10 - Mar 13 by DanTheMan

I'm just basically repeating what they said yesterday in the press conference, probably in a poor way.

I'm in no real position to criticise them, none of us are really. From other (non-government) sources I've read have basically said there is no "correct" way of doing this, especially when we know relatively little about this virus.

That said, even in my local paper there are two opposing views from the same university. One, a professor in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, is saying it's sensible and another, professor of molecular virology, is saying that because most people present with just cold symptoms, self isolation should be further spread.


I'm seeing plenty of people incredulous at the lack of action and some in support of the broad strategy. From a common sense perspective if the plan is to delay the peak and slow the spread then some containment measures are needed and we aren't really implementing any as it stands. The number of cases is going up rapidly.

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Herd immunity on 08:17 - Mar 13 with 6010 viewsDanTheMan

Herd immunity on 08:13 - Mar 13 by Herbivore

I'm seeing plenty of people incredulous at the lack of action and some in support of the broad strategy. From a common sense perspective if the plan is to delay the peak and slow the spread then some containment measures are needed and we aren't really implementing any as it stands. The number of cases is going up rapidly.


I'm not seeing many people who are scientists or doctors incredulous, personally, but maybe I've not read the same things as you. I've seen some criticise it for sure, but I've not see any who are saying are strategy is bonkers.

As they tried to explain yesterday, they are trying to account human psychology into this because it's going to be a long haul thing. They think we can't just shut down everything for 3-4 months, so we need to do the full shutdowns as we approach the peak to deal with the worst of it, with incremental measures coming to flatten the peak.

These people really don't seem like morons to me, I'm sure they've thought about this. Chris Whitty is an epidemiologist himself after all.

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Herd immunity on 08:17 - Mar 13 with 6010 viewsStokieBlue

Herd immunity on 08:13 - Mar 13 by Herbivore

I'm seeing plenty of people incredulous at the lack of action and some in support of the broad strategy. From a common sense perspective if the plan is to delay the peak and slow the spread then some containment measures are needed and we aren't really implementing any as it stands. The number of cases is going up rapidly.


The problem is we have been asking politicians and especially Boris to listen to experts for years and when he finally listens to his experts we still moan and say we should be doing something else.

I actually think it's probably impossible to level the peak like they want, exponential growth doesn't work that way but I'm not a epidemic modeller. However if I had known such a job existed 20 years ago it would have been very tempting - it's incredibly interesting and in situations like this incredibly important.

SB

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Herd immunity on 08:20 - Mar 13 with 6004 viewsDyland

I think they are damned if they do and damned if they don't re "delay" strategy.

One thing is for sure, and that's we need to rapidly increase ICU capacity. Makeshift temporary hops, now, whatever the cost. I liked some of what Bojo said in terms of the seriousness of the situation but it's hard to congratulate the Conservatives when it's their policies that have fooked health care capacity in the first place.
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 8:50]

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Herd immunity on 08:23 - Mar 13 with 5966 viewsbluelagos

Herd immunity on 08:17 - Mar 13 by StokieBlue

The problem is we have been asking politicians and especially Boris to listen to experts for years and when he finally listens to his experts we still moan and say we should be doing something else.

I actually think it's probably impossible to level the peak like they want, exponential growth doesn't work that way but I'm not a epidemic modeller. However if I had known such a job existed 20 years ago it would have been very tempting - it's incredibly interesting and in situations like this incredibly important.

SB


I actually studied / did some disease modelling at Uni 30 odd years ago. We went to Eyam and modelled the black plague, we even went round a graveyard to get the death rates each year.

Am guessing the principles are largely unchanged, albeit the computer power will be a bit more advanced than our simulations. Cant remember the statistical software we used, but I do remember we programmed using Fortran77.

Edit. Found it, this was what we used. Was pretty rubbish, or that may just have been our mainframes couldnt cope with all the data crunching. Twtd.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPSS
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 8:27]

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Herd immunity on 08:24 - Mar 13 with 5953 viewsHerbivore

Herd immunity on 08:17 - Mar 13 by StokieBlue

The problem is we have been asking politicians and especially Boris to listen to experts for years and when he finally listens to his experts we still moan and say we should be doing something else.

I actually think it's probably impossible to level the peak like they want, exponential growth doesn't work that way but I'm not a epidemic modeller. However if I had known such a job existed 20 years ago it would have been very tempting - it's incredibly interesting and in situations like this incredibly important.

SB


You can still pick and choose which experts to listen to. I'm sure other countries are listening to experts and are taking a very different approach. We'll see how things pan out, but it seems to me like we're sitting on our hands too much.

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Herd immunity on 08:24 - Mar 13 with 5956 viewsStokieBlue

There is clearly a benefit from herd immunity - it's how vaccines work and why people were getting annoyed at others not having measles jabs.

If they achieve herd immunity then that would prevent vulnerable people getting it because it's not circulating in the population.

Washing hands is still better though because that stops the virus being passed on. Herd immunity means someone has to have had the virus, it's own body has to then learn how to kill it and if it gets it again it kills it off before it can be passed on. That's not as good as not getting it in the first place but possibly better for the long term if it's with us for years and a vaccine takes a while.

I don't think it's a zero sum game at the moment and the UK experts do seem to have a differing school of thought to some others around the world.

SB

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Herd immunity on 08:25 - Mar 13 with 5945 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

Herd immunity on 07:41 - Mar 13 by sparks

Because if everyone gets it in the next 8 weeks the medical services will be utterly overwhelmed.


So close the schools?
Or are children acting as virus transmitters towards herd immunity?

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Herd immunity on 08:25 - Mar 13 with 5943 viewsDanTheMan

Herd immunity on 08:23 - Mar 13 by bluelagos

I actually studied / did some disease modelling at Uni 30 odd years ago. We went to Eyam and modelled the black plague, we even went round a graveyard to get the death rates each year.

Am guessing the principles are largely unchanged, albeit the computer power will be a bit more advanced than our simulations. Cant remember the statistical software we used, but I do remember we programmed using Fortran77.

Edit. Found it, this was what we used. Was pretty rubbish, or that may just have been our mainframes couldnt cope with all the data crunching. Twtd.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPSS
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 8:27]


"we programmed using Fortran77"

You poor bastard.

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Herd immunity on 08:27 - Mar 13 with 5926 viewsBloomBlue

Herd immunity on 08:20 - Mar 13 by Dyland

I think they are damned if they do and damned if they don't re "delay" strategy.

One thing is for sure, and that's we need to rapidly increase ICU capacity. Makeshift temporary hops, now, whatever the cost. I liked some of what Bojo said in terms of the seriousness of the situation but it's hard to congratulate the Conservatives when it's their policies that have fooked health care capacity in the first place.
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 8:50]


But there are 60 million people in this country you would never have enough ICU capacity if 50% of the population required them irrelevant of which party had been in power for the last 20 years
Yes you can argue there should be more, but how many more?
Stop making political arguments out of a rare unique situation.
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Herd immunity on 08:28 - Mar 13 with 5905 viewsunstableblue

I recommended the Newsnight piece.

I can't see how it is not our strategy given we are going in a different direction to the rest of the world.

I can see merit, but huge risk.

Some background:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-uk-coronavirus-robert-peston

Robert Peston on ITV is reporting that Herd is the direction.

Interesting times indeed.

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Herd immunity on 08:28 - Mar 13 with 5906 viewsHerbivore

Herd immunity on 08:27 - Mar 13 by BloomBlue

But there are 60 million people in this country you would never have enough ICU capacity if 50% of the population required them irrelevant of which party had been in power for the last 20 years
Yes you can argue there should be more, but how many more?
Stop making political arguments out of a rare unique situation.


We don't have enough bed space to cope with a regular winter due to years of underfunding. It won't take much for the NHS to reach breaking point. Stop using the pandemic to shut down legitimate criticism of the government.

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