| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy 17:33 - Mar 15 with 3884 views | StokieBlue |
368 deaths in the last 24 hours - 25% increase and 1800+ in total now. Total cases ~25,000 now. Maintaining the 7% mortality rate there (although this is high as cases will have been missed).
It seems to be really escalating in Europe, Swiss cases up 50% in 24 hours, Spain heading the same way as Italy and Germany closing it's borders.
Also 30,000 Brits in French skiing resorts who need to be transported back to the UK somehow as the French closed the resorts at midnight.
SB |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:36 - Mar 15 with 3219 views | Pecker |
Terrible news. I really feel for those families effected. Hoped it had peaked in Italy, but obviously not. Sad news. |  | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:39 - Mar 15 with 3187 views | TractorCam |
So the lockdown isn't really working then?
For the 30,000 coming here, surely they should be tested upon arrival, presuming we aren't doing this already? |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:42 - Mar 15 with 3152 views | jeera |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:39 - Mar 15 by TractorCam |
So the lockdown isn't really working then?
For the 30,000 coming here, surely they should be tested upon arrival, presuming we aren't doing this already? |
It suggests the lockdown came too late.
Which obviously makes you think what are we waiting for here exactly? |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:44 - Mar 15 with 3151 views | bluelagos |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:39 - Mar 15 by TractorCam |
So the lockdown isn't really working then?
For the 30,000 coming here, surely they should be tested upon arrival, presuming we aren't doing this already? |
Given the period where you are contagious but with no symptoms, you could lockdown every person, and it would take upto 2 weeks for those infected to come through the system.
So its wrong to expect (or judge it as failing) so early on. If in 2 weeks the numbers are still rising, I'd agree. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:44 - Mar 15 with 3140 views | StokieBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:42 - Mar 15 by jeera |
It suggests the lockdown came too late.
Which obviously makes you think what are we waiting for here exactly? |
I think Italian demographics might have a lot to do with it.
Older members of the family living in the same house as the younger members. If those younger members already had it before the lockdown you are basically guaranteeing that the older members are going to get it.
I don't have evidence for the above - it's speculation.
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:45 - Mar 15 with 3122 views | Guthrum |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:39 - Mar 15 by TractorCam |
So the lockdown isn't really working then?
For the 30,000 coming here, surely they should be tested upon arrival, presuming we aren't doing this already? |
Or the lockdown is working and it could have been worse than that. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:45 - Mar 15 with 3121 views | Pecker |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:44 - Mar 15 by StokieBlue |
I think Italian demographics might have a lot to do with it.
Older members of the family living in the same house as the younger members. If those younger members already had it before the lockdown you are basically guaranteeing that the older members are going to get it.
I don't have evidence for the above - it's speculation.
SB |
Makes sense. | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:46 - Mar 15 with 3119 views | Trequartista |
One every four minutes, or three more since you posted this. Dreadful. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:47 - Mar 15 with 3099 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:36 - Mar 15 by Pecker |
Terrible news. I really feel for those families effected. Hoped it had peaked in Italy, but obviously not. Sad news. |
Took 8 weeks to peak in China. Italy has a while to go yet. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:48 - Mar 15 with 3086 views | StokieBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:47 - Mar 15 by Cheltenham_Blue |
Took 8 weeks to peak in China. Italy has a while to go yet. |
Indeed, although I think you can take the official numbers provided by the Chinese with some suspicion.
Also, we now know the first case was probably in November in Hubei Provence so it's actually more like 12 weeks or more.
SB [Post edited 15 Mar 2020 17:51]
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:50 - Mar 15 with 3066 views | TractorCam |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:47 - Mar 15 by Cheltenham_Blue |
Took 8 weeks to peak in China. Italy has a while to go yet. |
How many weeks are Italy/ UK in? | |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:54 - Mar 15 with 3026 views | Guthrum |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:50 - Mar 15 by TractorCam |
How many weeks are Italy/ UK in? |
Experts reckon the UK is between 2 and 4 weeks behind Italy. A bit early to give a fixed timeline to the outbreak, considering the altho numbers of new infections are down, the disease is still raging in Wuhan. | |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:03 - Mar 15 with 2946 views | clive_baker |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:44 - Mar 15 by bluelagos |
Given the period where you are contagious but with no symptoms, you could lockdown every person, and it would take upto 2 weeks for those infected to come through the system.
So its wrong to expect (or judge it as failing) so early on. If in 2 weeks the numbers are still rising, I'd agree. |
It's also an average time of a month between getting ill and those dying from it. So the death rate is going to increase significantly before we see it starting to come down again. Terribly sad. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:13 - Mar 15 with 2867 views | Pecker |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:54 - Mar 15 by Guthrum |
Experts reckon the UK is between 2 and 4 weeks behind Italy. A bit early to give a fixed timeline to the outbreak, considering the altho numbers of new infections are down, the disease is still raging in Wuhan. |
I thought that Wuhan was getting better. No? | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:15 - Mar 15 with 2855 views | J2BLUE |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:44 - Mar 15 by bluelagos |
Given the period where you are contagious but with no symptoms, you could lockdown every person, and it would take upto 2 weeks for those infected to come through the system.
So its wrong to expect (or judge it as failing) so early on. If in 2 weeks the numbers are still rising, I'd agree. |
5.2 days is the average period and includes 95% of cases. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:20 - Mar 15 with 2817 views | StokieBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:15 - Mar 15 by J2BLUE |
5.2 days is the average period and includes 95% of cases. |
Interesting - where did you get that from?
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:24 - Mar 15 with 2800 views | Guthrum |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:13 - Mar 15 by Pecker |
I thought that Wuhan was getting better. No? |
Numbers of new cases are coming down, but many people still have the illness.
Plus when the lockdown is removed, there is the danger of a second wave of infection coming in from outside (possibly other strains, to which the locals have not yet been exposed). | |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:32 - Mar 15 with 2751 views | Pecker |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:24 - Mar 15 by Guthrum |
Numbers of new cases are coming down, but many people still have the illness.
Plus when the lockdown is removed, there is the danger of a second wave of infection coming in from outside (possibly other strains, to which the locals have not yet been exposed). |
Thanks for that. God knows when these terrible times will be over. (I know he doesn't) | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:40 - Mar 15 with 2705 views | gordon |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:20 - Mar 15 by StokieBlue |
Interesting - where did you get that from?
SB |
This is from WHO, I think, I've seen that figure too. |  | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:44 - Mar 15 with 2673 views | J2BLUE |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:20 - Mar 15 by StokieBlue |
Interesting - where did you get that from?
SB |
Apologies, I can't seem to find the source. I will keep looking. For now though, the closest I can find is from Darth's link earlier:
'How long is the incubation period of COVID-19?
The WHO writes “people with COVID-19 generally develop signs and symptoms, including mild respiratory symptoms and fever, on an average of 5-6 days after infection.”22
While the mean incubation period is 5 to 6 days, the WHO adds that the incubation period can vary in a wide range of between 1 to 14 days.23
This is based on the 55,924 confirmed cases in China. There are reports of cases with longer incubation periods in the media (a case of 27 days is reported here).'
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus | |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:48 - Mar 15 with 2629 views | BloomBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 17:39 - Mar 15 by TractorCam |
So the lockdown isn't really working then?
For the 30,000 coming here, surely they should be tested upon arrival, presuming we aren't doing this already? |
One of the problems is when you lockdown you force a family into one house / close proximity and it spreads easily, bit of a catch 22 and it seems from the data Italy as a country has a lot of older people living at home |  | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:52 - Mar 15 with 2611 views | gordon |
As well, I think by and large, in each country the ratio between deaths / recoveries stays fairly constant and is driven by the approach to testing.
In Korea for example, where they test almost everyone, the ratio is about 1:10 (1 death to every 10 recoveries).
In Italy it's about 7.5:10, because they are testing far fewer people.
In the UK (although we have fewer data) because we are doing almost no testing, our ratio is 17.5:10 (17.5 deaths to 10 recoveries).
France also has a really, really high death to recovery ratio, which doesn't bode well given how many cases they are reporting. Although Germany has even more cases, they look like having a much lower deaths to recovery ratio, suggesting more widespread testing. | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:02 - Mar 15 with 2538 views | BloomBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:52 - Mar 15 by gordon |
As well, I think by and large, in each country the ratio between deaths / recoveries stays fairly constant and is driven by the approach to testing.
In Korea for example, where they test almost everyone, the ratio is about 1:10 (1 death to every 10 recoveries).
In Italy it's about 7.5:10, because they are testing far fewer people.
In the UK (although we have fewer data) because we are doing almost no testing, our ratio is 17.5:10 (17.5 deaths to 10 recoveries).
France also has a really, really high death to recovery ratio, which doesn't bode well given how many cases they are reporting. Although Germany has even more cases, they look like having a much lower deaths to recovery ratio, suggesting more widespread testing. |
Are you sure about that data because they said the numbers were so high in Italy because they were testing so many especially at the start of the outbreak? I'm sure I read on the BBC they were even testing people who had no symptoms. | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:06 - Mar 15 with 2507 views | StokieBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:44 - Mar 15 by J2BLUE |
Apologies, I can't seem to find the source. I will keep looking. For now though, the closest I can find is from Darth's link earlier:
'How long is the incubation period of COVID-19?
The WHO writes “people with COVID-19 generally develop signs and symptoms, including mild respiratory symptoms and fever, on an average of 5-6 days after infection.”22
While the mean incubation period is 5 to 6 days, the WHO adds that the incubation period can vary in a wide range of between 1 to 14 days.23
This is based on the 55,924 confirmed cases in China. There are reports of cases with longer incubation periods in the media (a case of 27 days is reported here).'
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus |
Thanks.
As with all statistics it's interesting to get the breakdown. Obviously it's the 5% of outliers where it incubates for 5-14 days or more that are the issue. Need to keep people isolated for whatever the longest outlier is in order to try and minimise subsequent infections.
I might have a look later to see if that's been updated given it was based on 55,000 samples and the global count is around 165,000 and rising.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:11 - Mar 15 with 2479 views | TractorWood |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:02 - Mar 15 by BloomBlue |
Are you sure about that data because they said the numbers were so high in Italy because they were testing so many especially at the start of the outbreak? I'm sure I read on the BBC they were even testing people who had no symptoms. |
The mortality rates are really erratic because there is no consistent approach across the globe. There is little testing in the US as there are basically no kits, massive amounts of testing in the UK but now a policy of only testing hospitalisations.
The data generally is a real mess globally. |  |
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