| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy 17:33 - Mar 15 with 4833 views | StokieBlue |
368 deaths in the last 24 hours - 25% increase and 1800+ in total now. Total cases ~25,000 now. Maintaining the 7% mortality rate there (although this is high as cases will have been missed).
It seems to be really escalating in Europe, Swiss cases up 50% in 24 hours, Spain heading the same way as Italy and Germany closing it's borders.
Also 30,000 Brits in French skiing resorts who need to be transported back to the UK somehow as the French closed the resorts at midnight.
SB |  | | |  |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:24 - Mar 15 with 677 views | StokieBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:11 - Mar 15 by TractorWood |
The mortality rates are really erratic because there is no consistent approach across the globe. There is little testing in the US as there are basically no kits, massive amounts of testing in the UK but now a policy of only testing hospitalisations.
The data generally is a real mess globally. |
The US really hasn't handled this well and still aren't on top of it. This is getting heavily criticised from Biden:
Not showing symptoms isn't really relevant, can still pass it on at that stage.
SB | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:33 - Mar 15 with 629 views | Pecker |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:24 - Mar 15 by StokieBlue |
The US really hasn't handled this well and still aren't on top of it. This is getting heavily criticised from Biden:
Not showing symptoms isn't really relevant, can still pass it on at that stage.
SB |
Crazy. Putting themselves ahead of those they are meant to be representing. Idiots. |  | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:58 - Mar 15 with 601 views | gordon |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:02 - Mar 15 by BloomBlue |
Are you sure about that data because they said the numbers were so high in Italy because they were testing so many especially at the start of the outbreak? I'm sure I read on the BBC they were even testing people who had no symptoms. |
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-south-korea-differ-tackling-coronav
Yeah, they started doing lots of testing in Italy, but basically didn't have the resources to continue, because the rest of the system got swamped, and only tested those in hospital. In Korea, they've tested an awful lot of young people with mild symptoms, got the results quickly, and got them into self-quarantine. [Post edited 15 Mar 2020 19:59]
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 20:06 - Mar 15 with 578 views | BloomBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:58 - Mar 15 by gordon |
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-south-korea-differ-tackling-coronav
Yeah, they started doing lots of testing in Italy, but basically didn't have the resources to continue, because the rest of the system got swamped, and only tested those in hospital. In Korea, they've tested an awful lot of young people with mild symptoms, got the results quickly, and got them into self-quarantine. [Post edited 15 Mar 2020 19:59]
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Yeah I remember reading somewhere, BBC I think, that Italy was testing everyone even those without symptoms and that was giving them extra high numbers, but as you say looking at that it would indicate they stopped after a while, although I guess that initial intense testing would still impact their overall numbers |  | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 20:07 - Mar 15 with 574 views | gordon |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 19:06 - Mar 15 by StokieBlue |
Thanks.
As with all statistics it's interesting to get the breakdown. Obviously it's the 5% of outliers where it incubates for 5-14 days or more that are the issue. Need to keep people isolated for whatever the longest outlier is in order to try and minimise subsequent infections.
I might have a look later to see if that's been updated given it was based on 55,000 samples and the global count is around 165,000 and rising.
SB |
At the moment the incubation period isn't that relevant to isolation policy because we aren't testing the asymptomatic, so don't know who's infected.
Even so, generally the furthest outliers wouldn't be that important. If both the mean and the distribution of the data was approximately known, then you could model outcomes with daily reinfection rates under different policy scenarios which would give you an effective R0 number. | | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 20:13 - Mar 15 with 561 views | midastouch |
It sure looks like hell in places like Italy and Spain right now. And lots of other countries in Europe sadly look to be on a similar trajectory. But I always wonder whether a government can actually resist taking advantage of a national (or in this case world) crisis and thus grab some extra power in the process. And when people are scared to hell 99% won't even stop to question it.
If they take emergency powers (which is looking almost certain) and then roll them back again once the crisis is over then fair enough. In a real crisis that's justifiable. If it saves lives then no complaints whatsoever. But we should at least pay close attention to ensure any such powers (such as arbitrary arrest and detention without trial) are eventually rolled back completely once this is all over. |  |
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| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 20:34 - Mar 15 with 447 views | Ftnfwest |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 18:52 - Mar 15 by gordon |
As well, I think by and large, in each country the ratio between deaths / recoveries stays fairly constant and is driven by the approach to testing.
In Korea for example, where they test almost everyone, the ratio is about 1:10 (1 death to every 10 recoveries).
In Italy it's about 7.5:10, because they are testing far fewer people.
In the UK (although we have fewer data) because we are doing almost no testing, our ratio is 17.5:10 (17.5 deaths to 10 recoveries).
France also has a really, really high death to recovery ratio, which doesn't bode well given how many cases they are reporting. Although Germany has even more cases, they look like having a much lower deaths to recovery ratio, suggesting more widespread testing. |
Recoveries thus far are low in Europe because the vast majority outside Italy have contracted the virus in the last 14 days. Once that period is up the numbers will start to go up, although presume it will still be arbitrary as not everyone will check in and say ‘I’m better!’ |  | | |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 21:04 - Mar 15 with 375 views | StokieBlue |
| Horrible numbers coming out of Italy on 20:07 - Mar 15 by gordon |
At the moment the incubation period isn't that relevant to isolation policy because we aren't testing the asymptomatic, so don't know who's infected.
Even so, generally the furthest outliers wouldn't be that important. If both the mean and the distribution of the data was approximately known, then you could model outcomes with daily reinfection rates under different policy scenarios which would give you an effective R0 number. |
That's not what I meant. It's relevant in that we should start to see a drop-off of cases in Italy after the mean incubation period has passed whilst everyone has been isolated. If not then something isn't right with the numbers somewhere or possibly the transmission vector (seems unlikely that would be the case though).
SB | | | |
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