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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread 09:48 - Mar 16 with 1368 viewsStokieBlue

This is a really good analysis along with visual representations which make things easier to understand:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

It highlights why many have raised concerns about the UK approach but it also has a number of caveats which are in the final paragraph and should be read and considered.

Let's hope the governments plan of not closing things and attempting to flatten the curve is right - although a lot of social distancing seems to be happening now anyway regardless of the advice.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:11 - Mar 16 with 1273 viewshampstead_blue

Thanks.

I saw this on LinkedIn, hence my post, but couldn't get past the paywall.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:21 - Mar 16 with 1248 viewshomer_123

What's interesting is that it confirms what I had been thinking - the UKs strategy must end with heavy social distancing.

Maybe not a full lock down but certainly more than just 70 year old in isolation. We are def looking at school closures and a much more widespreard isolation process.

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:31 - Mar 16 with 1200 viewshampstead_blue

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:21 - Mar 16 by homer_123

What's interesting is that it confirms what I had been thinking - the UKs strategy must end with heavy social distancing.

Maybe not a full lock down but certainly more than just 70 year old in isolation. We are def looking at school closures and a much more widespreard isolation process.


I hope not school closures. It would make working from home an utter nightmare.

Can schools not run on skeleton staff? I think they possibly could

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:34 - Mar 16 with 1175 viewsSteve_M

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:21 - Mar 16 by homer_123

What's interesting is that it confirms what I had been thinking - the UKs strategy must end with heavy social distancing.

Maybe not a full lock down but certainly more than just 70 year old in isolation. We are def looking at school closures and a much more widespreard isolation process.


My big concern here is the lack of testing. It seems very lax not to at least quantify what is happening within the country unless people die.

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:36 - Mar 16 with 1167 viewsDeano69

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:31 - Mar 16 by hampstead_blue

I hope not school closures. It would make working from home an utter nightmare.

Can schools not run on skeleton staff? I think they possibly could


and a fair proportion of medical staff have school aged children. Also don't want grandparents looking after children who may be carriers...

Tricky

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:08 - Mar 16 with 1110 viewsWestStanderLaLaLa

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:34 - Mar 16 by Steve_M

My big concern here is the lack of testing. It seems very lax not to at least quantify what is happening within the country unless people die.


Me too. Is it due to a lack of infrastructure or they don’t thinks it’s necessary?
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:15 - Mar 16 with 1084 viewstractorian

Sorry to be a pedant, but can you have "an exponential curve" with a linear scale?

With an exponential scale, this would look far less dramatic.
[Post edited 16 Mar 11:21]
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:21 - Mar 16 with 1054 viewsDarth_Koont

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:21 - Mar 16 by homer_123

What's interesting is that it confirms what I had been thinking - the UKs strategy must end with heavy social distancing.

Maybe not a full lock down but certainly more than just 70 year old in isolation. We are def looking at school closures and a much more widespreard isolation process.


Maybe, maybe not.

The extensive social distancing might well be the best way to control covid-19 and its risks. But the rising risk to the population and its wellbeing of a tanking economy and sweeping job losses will also see other health issues and deaths rise.

There's a balance there. As it stands around 1400 people die in the UK every day. 90% of these are from old age and the underlying health conditions. Clearly covid-19 will exacerbate and speed up many of these deaths. But where does the breaking point come? 50, 100 or 500 extra deaths brought on by Covid-19? And for a year or so until a vaccine can be developed and deployed.

Meanwhile we know that unemployment and recession will also kill people early and exacerbate the health conditions into old age. The long-term cost of a global economy that falls through the floor during 2020 will be massive and we'll be feeling it in the areas of health, education, social cohesion, potential war, famine ... you name it.

Harsh as it may sound and I've parents, relatives and acquaintances at risk, there's a necessary cost/benefit analysis and risk assessment needed to ensure the overall suffering is kept to a minimum.
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:32 - Mar 16 with 1024 viewsGuthrum

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:08 - Mar 16 by WestStanderLaLaLa

Me too. Is it due to a lack of infrastructure or they don’t thinks it’s necessary?


The former has quite a big bearing on it. Not like we're testing nobody at all, just nowhere near a South Korean scale.

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:50 - Mar 16 with 987 viewsgordon

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:21 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont

Maybe, maybe not.

The extensive social distancing might well be the best way to control covid-19 and its risks. But the rising risk to the population and its wellbeing of a tanking economy and sweeping job losses will also see other health issues and deaths rise.

There's a balance there. As it stands around 1400 people die in the UK every day. 90% of these are from old age and the underlying health conditions. Clearly covid-19 will exacerbate and speed up many of these deaths. But where does the breaking point come? 50, 100 or 500 extra deaths brought on by Covid-19? And for a year or so until a vaccine can be developed and deployed.

Meanwhile we know that unemployment and recession will also kill people early and exacerbate the health conditions into old age. The long-term cost of a global economy that falls through the floor during 2020 will be massive and we'll be feeling it in the areas of health, education, social cohesion, potential war, famine ... you name it.

Harsh as it may sound and I've parents, relatives and acquaintances at risk, there's a necessary cost/benefit analysis and risk assessment needed to ensure the overall suffering is kept to a minimum.


There is a balance between prioritising wellbeing and economic development, this trade-off is present in decision-making at the best and worst of times.

But there's nothing wrong with questioning the government's balancing of these objectives - this is quite different from questioning the science.

The Government may have said to the Chief Medical Officer, 'we want to limit the effect on GDP to a 2% contraction, and minimise deaths within that target'.

That kind of objective setting is basically arbitrary, and absolutely isn't done scientifically by putting all the variables into a big 'maximise societal wellbeing model,' which unfortunately doesn't exist.
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:51 - Mar 16 with 983 viewshampstead_blue

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:21 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont

Maybe, maybe not.

The extensive social distancing might well be the best way to control covid-19 and its risks. But the rising risk to the population and its wellbeing of a tanking economy and sweeping job losses will also see other health issues and deaths rise.

There's a balance there. As it stands around 1400 people die in the UK every day. 90% of these are from old age and the underlying health conditions. Clearly covid-19 will exacerbate and speed up many of these deaths. But where does the breaking point come? 50, 100 or 500 extra deaths brought on by Covid-19? And for a year or so until a vaccine can be developed and deployed.

Meanwhile we know that unemployment and recession will also kill people early and exacerbate the health conditions into old age. The long-term cost of a global economy that falls through the floor during 2020 will be massive and we'll be feeling it in the areas of health, education, social cohesion, potential war, famine ... you name it.

Harsh as it may sound and I've parents, relatives and acquaintances at risk, there's a necessary cost/benefit analysis and risk assessment needed to ensure the overall suffering is kept to a minimum.


This point was skipped around on R4 this morning. One chap died but the underlying conditions were amplified due to the virus.

I'm not sure the virus will kill many who are fit and healthy, it's just going to accelerate those who are close.

Tough I know.

Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me. Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing. Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial. Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid. Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:58 - Mar 16 with 956 viewsSwansea_Blue

Hypnotic innit.

Loads of social distancing going on on top of the big events - my inbox is full of event & meeting cancellations, people without symptoms are choosing to work from home, etc. ...

It's kind of irrelevant now what the government has or hasn't said - we are carrying out social distancing at a number of different levels and scales.

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:59 - Mar 16 with 944 viewshatch

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:36 - Mar 16 by Deano69

and a fair proportion of medical staff have school aged children. Also don't want grandparents looking after children who may be carriers...

Tricky


Speaking to a teacher mate of mine who works in Bristol. He said they’re talking about running classes with fewer teachers and just for the children of parents with key roles in the likes of the NHS.

Also was a suggestion from him that a lot of learning could be delivered via web (webinars etc) but that will clearly rely on internet and laptop access at home, for example. And is also more relevant for older kids than those under 10 years old.
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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 12:04 - Mar 16 with 928 viewsNthQldITFC

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:15 - Mar 16 by tractorian

Sorry to be a pedant, but can you have "an exponential curve" with a linear scale?

With an exponential scale, this would look far less dramatic.
[Post edited 16 Mar 11:21]


You can put it on a log scale if you'd prefer to see a straight line, but they both represent the same data accurately.

Edit: ...and I expect, sadly, that the majority of viewers would struggle to understand the concept of a non-linear scale.
[Post edited 16 Mar 12:09]

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 12:15 - Mar 16 with 882 viewsStokieBlue

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:15 - Mar 16 by tractorian

Sorry to be a pedant, but can you have "an exponential curve" with a linear scale?

With an exponential scale, this would look far less dramatic.
[Post edited 16 Mar 11:21]


You can of course have an exponential curve on a linear scale.

If you had a log scale it would look less dramatic but the underlying data remains the same and just as alarming.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 12:24 - Mar 16 with 865 viewsRyorry

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:21 - Mar 16 by homer_123

What's interesting is that it confirms what I had been thinking - the UKs strategy must end with heavy social distancing.

Maybe not a full lock down but certainly more than just 70 year old in isolation. We are def looking at school closures and a much more widespreard isolation process.


Great in theory, impossible in practice. Sainsbury's delivery this morning very welcome, but had to sign driver's device & I don't have 1m long arms! It was also necessary for him to come into kitchen, as stuff was in 4 trays (they won't bag any more) which he was required to take back.

He told me that they have no more delivery slots now for the next 3 weeks.

Went on to Waitrose site to get several items missing from Sains delivery (not loo rolls!) - next available slot Sat 28th!

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 12:30 - Mar 16 with 832 viewsRyorry

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 10:36 - Mar 16 by Deano69

and a fair proportion of medical staff have school aged children. Also don't want grandparents looking after children who may be carriers...

Tricky


Belgium has what seems to me an excellent compromise system - schools are open but only to those whose parents are either key workers (medics etc), single parents, or cannot work from home. Interview featured on R4 sometime yesterday (sorry, can't remember when/which prog).

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This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 12:35 - Mar 16 with 806 viewsDeano69

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread on 11:59 - Mar 16 by hatch

Speaking to a teacher mate of mine who works in Bristol. He said they’re talking about running classes with fewer teachers and just for the children of parents with key roles in the likes of the NHS.

Also was a suggestion from him that a lot of learning could be delivered via web (webinars etc) but that will clearly rely on internet and laptop access at home, for example. And is also more relevant for older kids than those under 10 years old.


Other half works in a school and some teachers are being asked to take laptops home each even, just in case.

Webcasting could happen really easily. Most kids will have something at home they can use I would have thought (PC/Laptop/Tablet/Mobile).

But opening for 'blue light' families is a really good idea

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