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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? 19:07 - Mar 16 with 1449 viewsTheBoyBlue

Not just here, but worldwide. This isn't a criticism as its clear we have to do all we can to slow the growth of it. But surely eventually everything and everyone is going to have to come out of isolation and aren't we just going to be met with the same risk? There isn't likely to be a vaccine until next year, so this isolation won't eradicate it.

Is it just that once enough people have had it and become self-immune (as I understand it) that it would be easier to control. Surely we can't go on like this until a vaccine?

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 19:32 - Mar 16 with 1387 viewsSteve_M

Spreading the same number of cases over a much longer time-scale reduces the strain on hospitals and medical staff. Having fewer people active with an infection helps slow the number of cases.

Stokey linked to a really good Washington Post article earlier. Hang on....

Edit: here

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread by StokieBlue 16 Mar 2020 9:48
This is a really good analysis along with visual representations which make things easier to understand:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

It highlights why many have raised concerns about the UK approach but it also has a number of caveats which are in the final paragraph and should be read and considered.

Let's hope the governments plan of not closing things and attempting to flatten the curve is right - although a lot of social distancing seems to be happening now anyway regardless of the advice.

SB



[Post edited 16 Mar 2020 19:34]

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 20:06 - Mar 16 with 1310 viewsTrequartista

What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 19:32 - Mar 16 by Steve_M

Spreading the same number of cases over a much longer time-scale reduces the strain on hospitals and medical staff. Having fewer people active with an infection helps slow the number of cases.

Stokey linked to a really good Washington Post article earlier. Hang on....

Edit: here

This is an excellent analysis on virus spread by StokieBlue 16 Mar 2020 9:48
This is a really good analysis along with visual representations which make things easier to understand:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

It highlights why many have raised concerns about the UK approach but it also has a number of caveats which are in the final paragraph and should be read and considered.

Let's hope the governments plan of not closing things and attempting to flatten the curve is right - although a lot of social distancing seems to be happening now anyway regardless of the advice.

SB



[Post edited 16 Mar 2020 19:34]


How does introducing more draconian measures step by step over a longer period of time, rather than introduce them all immediately, slow the spread. Logically, wouldn't cases multiply quicker?

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 20:07 - Mar 16 with 1305 viewssparks

What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 20:06 - Mar 16 by Trequartista

How does introducing more draconian measures step by step over a longer period of time, rather than introduce them all immediately, slow the spread. Logically, wouldn't cases multiply quicker?


Yes- but equally- the problems with logisitics, finance, boredom, anger etc build less swiftly. There is a lot of behavioural science in their modelling, I suspect.

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 01:34 - Mar 17 with 1165 viewsArnieM

It’s been known / Expected for some time that a pandemic WOULD happen. So WHY is there no National contingency plans in place for dealing with it, when it did arise? Crass incompetence by the Government ( of any political persuasion) !

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 06:45 - Mar 17 with 1104 viewsEly_Blue

What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 20:07 - Mar 16 by sparks

Yes- but equally- the problems with logisitics, finance, boredom, anger etc build less swiftly. There is a lot of behavioural science in their modelling, I suspect.


This exactly. If you had put the country and people on lockdown the moment we got our first cases in this country then great nobody dies or gets sick...... for now

Then we wait for the spread to slow down, remove the measures and bang half the population gets it within weeks and we’re back to square 1, however you then can’t try and quarantine people for a 2nd time, that’s been said and proven

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 06:52 - Mar 17 with 1084 viewsDanTheMan

Playing for time essentially

Should be able to find a few links to the ICL report, but the newer research suggested the previous model could end up with 250,000 deaths.

So now we've gone for a model that doesn't overwhelm the NHS, but does mean we all have to get used to a new way of living whilst we hope they can find a vaccine or at least treatment faster than usual.

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 07:17 - Mar 17 with 1038 viewsSteve_M

What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 20:06 - Mar 16 by Trequartista

How does introducing more draconian measures step by step over a longer period of time, rather than introduce them all immediately, slow the spread. Logically, wouldn't cases multiply quicker?


There was a theoretical worry about people becoming bored if stuck at home for too long but the UK government's strategy looks piecemeal and reactive so far.

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 07:36 - Mar 17 with 1016 viewsElephantintheRoom

Fooling the public essentially.

The UK approach, now quietly ended was to stick our collective heads in the sand and send everyone who may or may not have had it home. Avoid testing at all costs.... wave everybody in fron Italy and China and ask them to self isolate as they brought the virus in... and give it to everyone in their socail circle.

In a country with a health care system that cannot cope with even a normal winter, this was cynical and callous - relatively sensible.... after all 99.99% will have a mild flu symptoms for 3 days then get better. And all being well will then be immune.

It also allows you to lie about the figures quite effectively.

Alas it ignores the fact that the virus will spread anyway. The only credible way to fight a virus transmission like this is to test everyone and isolate anyone showing symptoms.... as countries in the Far East have shown this can be effective.

But in reality the only end to this is when people begin to treat it like flu.... lots of vulnerable patients die, perhaps needlessly - and nobody cares overmuch. Thern the football can start again.

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What's the ultimate aim with all these measures? on 07:53 - Mar 17 with 995 viewsPinewoodblue

The current plan is designed to stop the NHS brung overwhelmed. To try and reduce the numbers of thr old and/ or infirmed from catching it as they are the group, statistically, more likely to need hospitalisation.

Making the best of a bad job and cover up for the unreasonable pressures imposed on the NHS by austerity.

My wife, although not yet 70, falls into the category of those who will get a personal letter from the NHS with specific instructions. This is likely to include 12 weeks lockdown. The biggest issue with lockdown is that there are approaching 3million, aged over 70, who live at home. There is a significant risk of mental issues, issues the NHS is not in a position to deal with.

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