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Potentially a year with restrictions? 09:19 - Mar 17 with 1206 viewsOhDavidMcgoldrick

Sorry if discussed before but I just picked up on an interview with the CMO and the BBC, he says that cannot rule out that these restrictions could be in place for up to a year.

I appreciate that no one really knows but surely there would be a time frame in which the rise of crime/loss of businesses/reduction in mental health, actually makes restrictions worse than facing the virus?




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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:22 - Mar 17 with 1187 viewsDanTheMan

Depends, how much is a human life worth?

That's basically the game you have to play at that point.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:24 - Mar 17 with 1153 viewsmonytowbray

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:22 - Mar 17 by DanTheMan

Depends, how much is a human life worth?

That's basically the game you have to play at that point.


China are letting people back to work and the new infection rate is dropping. Much of it will be how we handle the situation. And if the Summer helps it die down.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:26 - Mar 17 with 1140 viewsNewcyBlue

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:24 - Mar 17 by monytowbray

China are letting people back to work and the new infection rate is dropping. Much of it will be how we handle the situation. And if the Summer helps it die down.


Having spent time in China I wouldn’t go by what they say...

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:27 - Mar 17 with 1144 viewsOhDavidMcgoldrick

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:24 - Mar 17 by monytowbray

China are letting people back to work and the new infection rate is dropping. Much of it will be how we handle the situation. And if the Summer helps it die down.


It is good to see, particularly in places in South Korea where their reporting is more accurate and trustworthy

In my simplistic view - surely if one person still has the virus then the same thing could happen again? As it will just keep cycling until it dies out or becomes endemic

Then a society is born that is 3 months on then 3 months of restrictions....
[Post edited 17 Mar 2020 9:27]

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:28 - Mar 17 with 1127 viewsGuthrum

Which is why major wars are often followed by an economic slump.

Part of the issue is that if this disease is not dealt with effectively, it may return in the winter and become seasonal. People think of the Black Death happening in 1348 and the Great Plague in 1665-6. However, once it had become endemic, waves of plague (albeit not so severe) kept reccurring every few years right up to the mid 18th century. Not only killing large numbers of people, but also damaging the world economy.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:29 - Mar 17 with 1119 viewsDanTheMan

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:27 - Mar 17 by OhDavidMcgoldrick

It is good to see, particularly in places in South Korea where their reporting is more accurate and trustworthy

In my simplistic view - surely if one person still has the virus then the same thing could happen again? As it will just keep cycling until it dies out or becomes endemic

Then a society is born that is 3 months on then 3 months of restrictions....
[Post edited 17 Mar 2020 9:27]


"In my simplistic view - surely if one person still has the virus then the same thing could happen again? As it will just keep cycling until it dies out or becomes endemic"

Correct, this is basically what they've been saying. We can't just shut down for a few weeks. This is going to be for the long haul, until either a vaccine or treatment is found

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:30 - Mar 17 with 1105 viewsbluelagos

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:22 - Mar 17 by DanTheMan

Depends, how much is a human life worth?

That's basically the game you have to play at that point.


Indeed. And we make that call in everything we do. When we spend money on any activity other than the NHS or say cancer research we are prioritising things other than saving lives.

Polly Toynbee's article from a hospital manager who is going to have to make life and death decisions is incredibly sobering reading, I'll let you find it if you want to.

That's why I think, if I was 70+ I'd simply carry on regardless, knowing full well my life could end prematurely. Better to live your life than to be stuck inside bored and scared.

But then I ride mororbikes, have lived and worked in some dangerous places and have a way more relaxed attitude to risk and reward than most people I guess.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:06 - Mar 17 with 1013 viewsOhDavidMcgoldrick

The exact quote from the ICL report used by Bojo

" The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package —
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission — will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) — given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:15 - Mar 17 with 966 viewsStokieBlue

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:24 - Mar 17 by monytowbray

China are letting people back to work and the new infection rate is dropping. Much of it will be how we handle the situation. And if the Summer helps it die down.


I would take those Chinese numbers with a huge amount of scepticism. I honestly do hope they are right and the infections are falling though.

Let's not forget that them trying to hide this for about a month and silence the doctors who were speaking up about it is one of the reasons we are where we are at this point.

SB
[Post edited 17 Mar 2020 10:15]

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:16 - Mar 17 with 958 viewsmonytowbray

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:15 - Mar 17 by StokieBlue

I would take those Chinese numbers with a huge amount of scepticism. I honestly do hope they are right and the infections are falling though.

Let's not forget that them trying to hide this for about a month and silence the doctors who were speaking up about it is one of the reasons we are where we are at this point.

SB
[Post edited 17 Mar 2020 10:15]


As someone else said above though, other nations are also seeing declines in new cases already.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:18 - Mar 17 with 937 viewsWeWereZombies

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 09:28 - Mar 17 by Guthrum

Which is why major wars are often followed by an economic slump.

Part of the issue is that if this disease is not dealt with effectively, it may return in the winter and become seasonal. People think of the Black Death happening in 1348 and the Great Plague in 1665-6. However, once it had become endemic, waves of plague (albeit not so severe) kept reccurring every few years right up to the mid 18th century. Not only killing large numbers of people, but also damaging the world economy.


Well thanks for cheering us up.

Actually having this historic account is something of a cause for optimism, in the middle ages authoritarian religion suppressed much of the wisdom of the past, especially what came down from those pantheistic, infanticidal and slave owning Greeks. Except we don't know the full story about the ancient Greeks as Islam and Catholicism either hid away or burnt some of the best stuff. Also, trade was not global in the sense it is today and agriculture had much lower yields.

So an economic downturn does not have to become a slump, I doubt it will be a blip though.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:59 - Mar 17 with 873 viewsGuthrum

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 10:18 - Mar 17 by WeWereZombies

Well thanks for cheering us up.

Actually having this historic account is something of a cause for optimism, in the middle ages authoritarian religion suppressed much of the wisdom of the past, especially what came down from those pantheistic, infanticidal and slave owning Greeks. Except we don't know the full story about the ancient Greeks as Islam and Catholicism either hid away or burnt some of the best stuff. Also, trade was not global in the sense it is today and agriculture had much lower yields.

So an economic downturn does not have to become a slump, I doubt it will be a blip though.


Altho religious organisations and scholars, both Christian and Islamic, were also responsible for a lot of the preservation and dissemination of ancient knowlege. The Romano-Gaullish families who went from local government to being senior clergy after the Frankish takeover, the monks with their transcriptions, the muslim medics and scientists. The intellectual exchange between the two sides during and after the Crusades (especially Spain up to the 1400s and southern Italy).

I'd say the fire at Ashburnham House in 1731 was as damaging to the survival of ancient (and Medieval) knowlege as the burning of the Great Library at Alexandria (which mostly incinerated retellings of Homer's epics).

Trade was surprisingly global even in the mid 14th century (that was partly how the plague spread), plus a mainly rural, localised basic economy was more robust when it came to interruptions of supply.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:05 - Mar 17 with 864 viewsStokieBlue

Nobody seems to be taking the advice at the moment. Just had a quick cycle and loads of people about and still people in cafes etc.

SB

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:06 - Mar 17 with 856 viewsmonytowbray

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:05 - Mar 17 by StokieBlue

Nobody seems to be taking the advice at the moment. Just had a quick cycle and loads of people about and still people in cafes etc.

SB



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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:09 - Mar 17 with 850 viewsOhDavidMcgoldrick

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:05 - Mar 17 by StokieBlue

Nobody seems to be taking the advice at the moment. Just had a quick cycle and loads of people about and still people in cafes etc.

SB


This is issue occurred in France where people did not heed soft warnings and now they are on a permit basis to be outside otherwise will be fined.

Boris is trying to cut the fine line between imposing these restrictions or just kindly asking people to be wary.

From the look of London this morning, a fair few are able to work from home and are taking that advice.

The construction industry will be hit very hard if forced to close as the trades cannot work from home.

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Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:12 - Mar 17 with 822 viewsGuthrum

Potentially a year with restrictions? on 11:09 - Mar 17 by OhDavidMcgoldrick

This is issue occurred in France where people did not heed soft warnings and now they are on a permit basis to be outside otherwise will be fined.

Boris is trying to cut the fine line between imposing these restrictions or just kindly asking people to be wary.

From the look of London this morning, a fair few are able to work from home and are taking that advice.

The construction industry will be hit very hard if forced to close as the trades cannot work from home.


I've just got a nice job where I can work on my own in an empty building for a couple of weeks. However, if the builders' merchants all shut, I'm still stuffed.

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