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So today the WHO cite the Korean model 23:28 - Mar 18 with 1297 viewsTrequartista

"A month ago, the Republic of Korea was faced with accelerating community transmission. But it didn’t surrender.

It educated, empowered and engaged communities;

It developed an innovative testing strategy and expanded lab capacity;

It rationed the use of masks;

It did exhaustive contact tracing and testing in selected areas;

And it isolated suspected cases in designated facilities rather than hospitals or at home.

As a result, cases have been declining for weeks. At the peak there were more than 800 cases, and today the report was only 90 cases.

WHO is working in solidarity with other countries with community transmission to apply the lessons learned in Korea and elsewhere, and adapt them to the local context."

Today we overtook Korea with our amount of deaths as i predicted earlier this week, and we continue along the Spain/Italy curve, Now I know we are not in the same part of the world as Japan and Korea and so all factors are not equal, but why the hell were we messing about with mathematical predictions with unknown variables when there was REAL data in countries who got this weeks before us?

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:35 - Mar 18 with 1229 viewsJ2BLUE

Today we overtook Korea with our amount of deaths as i predicted earlier this week

Got any more stunning predictions? Night will follow day perhaps or that the Titanic might sink?

Truly impaired.
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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:39 - Mar 18 with 1216 viewsTrequartista

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:35 - Mar 18 by J2BLUE

Today we overtook Korea with our amount of deaths as i predicted earlier this week

Got any more stunning predictions? Night will follow day perhaps or that the Titanic might sink?


Yes i think we will overtake the US, even though they have an idiot in charge.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:39 - Mar 18 with 1218 viewsGuthrum

The real data was coming through only days in advance of things happening to us. That's a mighty narrow window to formulate policy and pass legislation.

Also, with SK, their outbreak was initially quite geographically limited. Indeed, for a long time, the vast majority of their cases were in one tight-knit church community, in Daegu. That made it easier to isolate and contain.

But still, they had a massively high number of infections. Their peak was 8,000 cases, not 800. Their daily new case count may be down to 90, the overall number of current sufferers is still many thousand.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:49 - Mar 18 with 1181 viewsTrequartista

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:39 - Mar 18 by Guthrum

The real data was coming through only days in advance of things happening to us. That's a mighty narrow window to formulate policy and pass legislation.

Also, with SK, their outbreak was initially quite geographically limited. Indeed, for a long time, the vast majority of their cases were in one tight-knit church community, in Daegu. That made it easier to isolate and contain.

But still, they had a massively high number of infections. Their peak was 8,000 cases, not 800. Their daily new case count may be down to 90, the overall number of current sufferers is still many thousand.


The number of cases is vast because they are testing vast numbers (over 270k compared to 56k in the UK), the only accurate measurement to compare with another country is the death count.

It was only 6 days ago we were pondering herd immunity and just washing our hands, Korea's cases and deaths have been falling for 2 weeks.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:53 - Mar 18 with 1167 viewsStokieBlue

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:39 - Mar 18 by Trequartista

Yes i think we will overtake the US, even though they have an idiot in charge.


Why do you think we will overtake the US?

We are testing far more people than them and they have a far larger population - they are behind and being ridiculous.

A lot of people in the US think their infections are >50k already - they just haven't tested barely anyone.

SB

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:57 - Mar 18 with 1160 viewsmonytowbray

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:35 - Mar 18 by J2BLUE

Today we overtook Korea with our amount of deaths as i predicted earlier this week

Got any more stunning predictions? Night will follow day perhaps or that the Titanic might sink?


To be fair to him a lot of us saw that coming, but his post has strong points and merit worth addressing.

A lot of people on here RN calling for unity whilst also being unhelpful and poking. Yes, pot and kettle but I’m making all the effort I can to tread carefully despite feeling like I’m screaming into an airlock. I don’t feel like it’s worthwhile making others feel like that too.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:06 - Mar 19 with 1136 viewsJ2BLUE

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:57 - Mar 18 by monytowbray

To be fair to him a lot of us saw that coming, but his post has strong points and merit worth addressing.

A lot of people on here RN calling for unity whilst also being unhelpful and poking. Yes, pot and kettle but I’m making all the effort I can to tread carefully despite feeling like I’m screaming into an airlock. I don’t feel like it’s worthwhile making others feel like that too.


True. Undoubtedly he has a point. I don't know what the answer is. I read one thing that sounds reassuring and the next thing scares the sh1t out of me. I can't imagine what it's like to have to make decisions to minimise deaths and infections.

I actually heard the 20,000 deaths figure and felt a sense of relief. How utterly mental is that? First the worst case scenario was 500,000, then there was that report which mentioned 260,000 deaths. When I heard 20,000, while clearly only a prediction and not a promise, I was reasonable reassured. Which is insane.

Truly impaired.
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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:09 - Mar 19 with 1126 viewsTrequartista

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:53 - Mar 18 by StokieBlue

Why do you think we will overtake the US?

We are testing far more people than them and they have a far larger population - they are behind and being ridiculous.

A lot of people in the US think their infections are >50k already - they just haven't tested barely anyone.

SB


I think they are about to ramp the testing up quite considerably. We just seem to be on a steeper curve because we haven't been tough enough. We will see what happens.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:10 - Mar 19 with 1124 viewsmonytowbray

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:06 - Mar 19 by J2BLUE

True. Undoubtedly he has a point. I don't know what the answer is. I read one thing that sounds reassuring and the next thing scares the sh1t out of me. I can't imagine what it's like to have to make decisions to minimise deaths and infections.

I actually heard the 20,000 deaths figure and felt a sense of relief. How utterly mental is that? First the worst case scenario was 500,000, then there was that report which mentioned 260,000 deaths. When I heard 20,000, while clearly only a prediction and not a promise, I was reasonable reassured. Which is insane.


That doesn’t reassure me much when you consider the hospital beds we’ll need. Or compare us to other nations. This is either about to escalate fast from late and lax instructions on public behaviour of it’s going to be a mess for a long time.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:15 - Mar 19 with 1105 viewsTrequartista

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:06 - Mar 19 by J2BLUE

True. Undoubtedly he has a point. I don't know what the answer is. I read one thing that sounds reassuring and the next thing scares the sh1t out of me. I can't imagine what it's like to have to make decisions to minimise deaths and infections.

I actually heard the 20,000 deaths figure and felt a sense of relief. How utterly mental is that? First the worst case scenario was 500,000, then there was that report which mentioned 260,000 deaths. When I heard 20,000, while clearly only a prediction and not a promise, I was reasonable reassured. Which is insane.


I don't know either, i'm a mere punter. I'm not trying to contradict experts, but when experts contradict each other, and the WHO (who i previously gently mocked for stating the obvious) make bold statements like that it is so frustrating to watch our numbers rise so quickly.

20,000 deaths also sounds a relief when you consider flu kills 17,000 a year on average even though it has a vaccine (of sorts).
[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 0:17]

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:30 - Mar 19 with 1063 viewsmonytowbray

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:09 - Mar 19 by Trequartista

I think they are about to ramp the testing up quite considerably. We just seem to be on a steeper curve because we haven't been tough enough. We will see what happens.


Just seen this, more evidence that testing and isolation is likely the answer. Very similar to Korea but smaller scale.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-itali

I sure hope our science is the best in the f*cking world and we have the secret sauce as we seem to be doing close to the opposite.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:31 - Mar 19 with 1065 viewsStokieBlue

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:09 - Mar 19 by Trequartista

I think they are about to ramp the testing up quite considerably. We just seem to be on a steeper curve because we haven't been tough enough. We will see what happens.


But the UK have ramped up the testing as well - the levels predicted will be around the same as China in their peak.

I don't understand how if the US are ramping up testing it means we get more infections - you'll need to explain that to me.

SB

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:31 - Mar 19 with 1064 viewsGuthrum

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 23:49 - Mar 18 by Trequartista

The number of cases is vast because they are testing vast numbers (over 270k compared to 56k in the UK), the only accurate measurement to compare with another country is the death count.

It was only 6 days ago we were pondering herd immunity and just washing our hands, Korea's cases and deaths have been falling for 2 weeks.


I don't want to take anything away the South Koreans, because they did a great job of dealing with the situation as it manifested in their country. But neither is it useful to turn that into a stick to beat the UK authorities.

Our circumstances have been markedly different. No concentrated centre of the outbreak which we can go after with intensive testing (62% of SK's known cases were in that one church). Six days ago, the number of cases in the UK was moderate (560) and increasing at a steady (not yet explosive) rate. Given the different circumstances, there was no certainty things would follow the same path (or will do going forward). They were able to lock down one specific region, we are looking at needing to do the whole country.

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:34 - Mar 19 with 1059 viewsStokieBlue

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:06 - Mar 19 by J2BLUE

True. Undoubtedly he has a point. I don't know what the answer is. I read one thing that sounds reassuring and the next thing scares the sh1t out of me. I can't imagine what it's like to have to make decisions to minimise deaths and infections.

I actually heard the 20,000 deaths figure and felt a sense of relief. How utterly mental is that? First the worst case scenario was 500,000, then there was that report which mentioned 260,000 deaths. When I heard 20,000, while clearly only a prediction and not a promise, I was reasonable reassured. Which is insane.


There is no reason at the moment to believe it will be worse here than anywhere else. In fact, given the demographics and cross-generation living in Italy it's likely to be not as bad as there.

Lets not forget though, it's horrible everywhere and it could end up being worse here - there just isn't anything to really support that at the moment.

SB

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:56 - Mar 19 with 1011 viewsSpruceMoose

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:09 - Mar 19 by Trequartista

I think they are about to ramp the testing up quite considerably. We just seem to be on a steeper curve because we haven't been tough enough. We will see what happens.


I've seen no evidence of that. I guess if Trump can monetise it for him and his family somehow then there's a chance!
[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 0:57]

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So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 07:51 - Mar 19 with 767 viewshomer_123

So today the WHO cite the Korean model on 00:10 - Mar 19 by monytowbray

That doesn’t reassure me much when you consider the hospital beds we’ll need. Or compare us to other nations. This is either about to escalate fast from late and lax instructions on public behaviour of it’s going to be a mess for a long time.


Dude, this was never going to something that can be quickly and easily resolved.

There are no right or wrong answers here - you do understand that this is 'unprecedented' right? People are making decisions and giving advice based on an ever changing landscape and information.

There can be no reassurance - you'll just need to roll with it. No one can possibly know if it's weeks or months before a semblance of normality returns - even China that was hit first isn't anywhere near back to normal. Yes, there has been relaxes and people are going back to work and manufacturing is starting again but we have 'no idea' if they'll get a rebound or whether it's now OK.

What on earth do you think anyone can 'actually' do? You are looking for certainty where this is none.

This truly, is life, sometimes it f*cking sucks and it's no ones fault.

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