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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus 20:40 - Mar 19 with 5843 viewsElderGrizzly

China was 2%. The message from Government was this was a 1% disease.

This is going to get incredibly bad if these statistics don’t ‘soften’

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:44 - Mar 19 with 3092 viewspointofblue

The mortality rate will be much lower than that because we have been predominantly testing those who have been hospitalised - in other words people who more often than not have underlying health conditions to start with. Many mild or asymptomatic cases are going under the radar.

If it really was 4% the press would be making a lot more out of it for click bait, viewers, paper purchases etc.
[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 20:44]

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:44 - Mar 19 with 3083 viewsPinewoodblue

It probably is, if we knew how many. People had contracted it.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:49 - Mar 19 with 3044 viewsStokieBlue

A few things at work here:

- We aren't testing people unless that are really bad, the denominator of the mortality rate is clearly miles off. It will move significantly when they ramp up the testing.

- No convinced you can believe any metrics coming out of China.

- Even more worrying it that Italy is up near 10% - that could again be limited testing though.

It's not a trivial disease like many were making out a few months ago - these metrics will change a lot as more testing and especially antibody testing is rolled out. You are right that if it's actually 4.4% that is horrific but it won't be.

SB

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:51 - Mar 19 with 3025 viewsJ2BLUE

Clearly you understand that if most cases are mild or going undetected then the mortality rate will be a lot lower.

Truly impaired.
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:56 - Mar 19 with 2959 viewsGluedtoBlue

It is 'facts' like this that cause panic in society. You could spin it that 96% of people hospitalised with coronavirus survive, which sounds pretty good.

If you tested everyone then it's going to be sub 1% imo but they haven't tested everyone so we'll never know.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:59 - Mar 19 with 2942 viewsElderGrizzly

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:49 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue

A few things at work here:

- We aren't testing people unless that are really bad, the denominator of the mortality rate is clearly miles off. It will move significantly when they ramp up the testing.

- No convinced you can believe any metrics coming out of China.

- Even more worrying it that Italy is up near 10% - that could again be limited testing though.

It's not a trivial disease like many were making out a few months ago - these metrics will change a lot as more testing and especially antibody testing is rolled out. You are right that if it's actually 4.4% that is horrific but it won't be.

SB


Agree, it should ‘soften’.

Medical community were estimating we had 55,000 cases here and it doubles every 4 days.
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:00 - Mar 19 with 2919 viewsMarshalls_Mullet

That's poor analysis.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:01 - Mar 19 with 2913 viewsJ2BLUE

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:59 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

Agree, it should ‘soften’.

Medical community were estimating we had 55,000 cases here and it doubles every 4 days.


If you think it should soften can you explain your thread title?

Stating something as a fact you know is almost certainly untrue and very wide of the mark.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:01 - Mar 19 with 2916 viewspointofblue

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:49 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue

A few things at work here:

- We aren't testing people unless that are really bad, the denominator of the mortality rate is clearly miles off. It will move significantly when they ramp up the testing.

- No convinced you can believe any metrics coming out of China.

- Even more worrying it that Italy is up near 10% - that could again be limited testing though.

It's not a trivial disease like many were making out a few months ago - these metrics will change a lot as more testing and especially antibody testing is rolled out. You are right that if it's actually 4.4% that is horrific but it won't be.

SB


My biggest concern is the belief we’re two weeks behind Italy. The diagnosis count there two weeks ago (5/3/20) was 769 daily cases declared, leading to a total of 3858 with 148 deaths as a result of 32362 people being tested.

We had 643 daily cases declared, leading to a total of 3269 with 144 deaths as a result of 64261 people being tested.

The daily cases, total and deaths are very close together though we have tested far more people than the Italians had at this point (ETA assuming we are two weeks behind)
[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:03]

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:02 - Mar 19 with 2899 viewsStokieBlue

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:59 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

Agree, it should ‘soften’.

Medical community were estimating we had 55,000 cases here and it doubles every 4 days.


There are lots of estimates out there - some of them are really large, like the US for instance. I don't think we are off the scale or anything, we seem right in line with most other countries.

SB

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:03 - Mar 19 with 2868 viewsElderGrizzly

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 20:51 - Mar 19 by J2BLUE

Clearly you understand that if most cases are mild or going undetected then the mortality rate will be a lot lower.


I do, but just looking at official figures from each country.

My point is, this isn’t the trivial disease it was being made out to be a few weeks ago. It is multiples times worse than the flu.

At least we aren’t lying to the World to say we have a drug to help it i guess

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:05 - Mar 19 with 2837 viewsElderGrizzly

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:01 - Mar 19 by J2BLUE

If you think it should soften can you explain your thread title?

Stating something as a fact you know is almost certainly untrue and very wide of the mark.


I’ve suggested it should soften in the OP.

The stats the Govt are reporting in our internal reporting is 4.4%. We have to start somewhere
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:06 - Mar 19 with 2825 viewspointofblue

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:05 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

I’ve suggested it should soften in the OP.

The stats the Govt are reporting in our internal reporting is 4.4%. We have to start somewhere


Though the starting point, wherever it is, should include context.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:08 - Mar 19 with 2796 viewsElderGrizzly

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:02 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue

There are lots of estimates out there - some of them are really large, like the US for instance. I don't think we are off the scale or anything, we seem right in line with most other countries.

SB


Even if we are in-line with other countries, if we see 40million get this, it is going to be f*cking horrendous

America are planning on 140 million contracting it this year.

This isn’t a 12 week ‘getting it controlled’ situation that Boris made it out to be earlier today.

[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:10]
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:11 - Mar 19 with 2757 viewsMarshalls_Mullet

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:08 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

Even if we are in-line with other countries, if we see 40million get this, it is going to be f*cking horrendous

America are planning on 140 million contracting it this year.

This isn’t a 12 week ‘getting it controlled’ situation that Boris made it out to be earlier today.

[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:10]


That depends.

We don't know that say 2m people haven't already got / had it.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:11 - Mar 19 with 2760 viewsBloomBlue

The Chinese included anyone with flu like symptoms in their totals which dramatically decreased their %, not that you can even trust the totals they gave especially on the final death total
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:13 - Mar 19 with 2742 viewsStokieBlue

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:08 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

Even if we are in-line with other countries, if we see 40million get this, it is going to be f*cking horrendous

America are planning on 140 million contracting it this year.

This isn’t a 12 week ‘getting it controlled’ situation that Boris made it out to be earlier today.

[Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:10]


We know how bad it could be, I've certainly been discussing it on here for a few months with regards to possible r0, mortality rates and possible numbers of infections. I spent weeks trying to stop the endless false equivalences with the flu.

You've come on tonight and acted as if nobody has been discussing this and nobody has been taking it seriously. Plenty of people have and know the scenarios.

It's very unlike you.

SB

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:16 - Mar 19 with 2713 viewssparks

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:13 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue

We know how bad it could be, I've certainly been discussing it on here for a few months with regards to possible r0, mortality rates and possible numbers of infections. I spent weeks trying to stop the endless false equivalences with the flu.

You've come on tonight and acted as if nobody has been discussing this and nobody has been taking it seriously. Plenty of people have and know the scenarios.

It's very unlike you.

SB


That tweet is dishonest. Johnson didn't say anything of the sort.

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On the other hand on 21:21 - Mar 19 with 2702 viewsGuthrum

Despite a significant increase in the number of tests (8,400 today compared with 5,779 yesterday) the number of new positive results went down, from 676 to 643.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:34 - Mar 19 with 2629 viewsElderGrizzly

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:13 - Mar 19 by StokieBlue

We know how bad it could be, I've certainly been discussing it on here for a few months with regards to possible r0, mortality rates and possible numbers of infections. I spent weeks trying to stop the endless false equivalences with the flu.

You've come on tonight and acted as if nobody has been discussing this and nobody has been taking it seriously. Plenty of people have and know the scenarios.

It's very unlike you.

SB


To be honest, I haven’t been on here a lot recently. Work is rather busy!

I’m glad there are other sensible people around still
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:37 - Mar 19 with 2613 viewsElderGrizzly

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:16 - Mar 19 by sparks

That tweet is dishonest. Johnson didn't say anything of the sort.


There are a lot of journalists reporting it, even the Tory mouthpiece

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:39 - Mar 19 with 2602 viewssparks

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:37 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

There are a lot of journalists reporting it, even the Tory mouthpiece



It's not what he said.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:41 - Mar 19 with 2594 viewsJ2BLUE

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:37 - Mar 19 by ElderGrizzly

There are a lot of journalists reporting it, even the Tory mouthpiece



They are misreporting the actual words for a headline.

He said we could 'turn the tide' which I assume means be on the downward slope of the curve. He did say send it packing but as far as I remember not within 12 weeks.

Truly impaired.
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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:44 - Mar 19 with 2575 viewsEdmundo

Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:11 - Mar 19 by Marshalls_Mullet

That depends.

We don't know that say 2m people haven't already got / had it.


With the way global travel was (until recently) and you put together both the suppression of statistics in China with the number of Chinese visitors (especially younger people, over 120000 according to BBC in January), it's highly likely Coronavirus was circulating way before it was officially picked up. It could have been here in January and been mistaken for flu, with some pneumonia complications.

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Mortality rate is 4.4% in the UK from Coronavirus on 21:49 - Mar 19 with 2556 viewsOxford_Blue

That’s of reported cases and we only report cases already in hospital.

So many cases are never reported and the true death rate is likely to be under 1%.
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