| A very alarming chart. 09:52 - Mar 21 with 1114 views | Mercian |
https://ibb.co/JvPwTCf
This chart shows we are on par with Italy just two weeks behind. The answer as why Italy has it so bad is that they have not. They just got it earlier. [Post edited 21 Mar 2020 9:53]
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| A very alarming chart. on 09:58 - Mar 21 with 1069 views | StokieBlue |
I agree that it's alarming but there are some caveats.
The chart is from the first known case, perhaps we were slower at finding that case? Perhaps the testing is different or the allocation of death in early cases was wrong in Italy.
It's also at the low end of the curve, most countries follow a certain curve but Italy and Spain have a much steeper one after the initial section due to more elderly people living in family houses.
I think we need to wait a few more days to see which curve we are actually on but it's not going to be good either way.
I will look for some modelling analysis between Italy, Spain and the UK later and post it up if I find anything good.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| A very alarming chart. on 09:59 - Mar 21 with 1069 views | Guthrum |
Tho while the trajectories may be superficially similar (tho with low numbers overall at the same stage) there is no inevitability about that continuing, or whether both countries will reach the same peak. |  |
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| A very alarming chart. on 10:05 - Mar 21 with 1035 views | StokieBlue |
| A very alarming chart. on 09:59 - Mar 21 by Guthrum |
Tho while the trajectories may be superficially similar (tho with low numbers overall at the same stage) there is no inevitability about that continuing, or whether both countries will reach the same peak. |
Exactly a more exponential and more linear curve look roughly the same at the beginning and with low numbers.
The sample size simply isn't big enough.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| A very alarming chart. on 10:46 - Mar 21 with 967 views | Mercian |
| A very alarming chart. on 09:58 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue |
I agree that it's alarming but there are some caveats.
The chart is from the first known case, perhaps we were slower at finding that case? Perhaps the testing is different or the allocation of death in early cases was wrong in Italy.
It's also at the low end of the curve, most countries follow a certain curve but Italy and Spain have a much steeper one after the initial section due to more elderly people living in family houses.
I think we need to wait a few more days to see which curve we are actually on but it's not going to be good either way.
I will look for some modelling analysis between Italy, Spain and the UK later and post it up if I find anything good.
SB |
I look forward to it. | | | |
| A very alarming chart. on 11:58 - Mar 21 with 868 views | badadski |
| A very alarming chart. on 10:46 - Mar 21 by Mercian |
I look forward to it. |
We will reach Italy, self isolation won’t work when some people still have go to work. Sitting 4 feet away from some one in an office makes no difference if germs are spreading through air ventilation/condition units any way. My office the windows are nailed shut so you can’t even open them. It’s like a plane so effectively just a giant Petri dish but without filters in the ventilation. | | | |
| A very alarming chart. on 12:07 - Mar 21 with 847 views | sparks |
| A very alarming chart. on 11:58 - Mar 21 by badadski |
We will reach Italy, self isolation won’t work when some people still have go to work. Sitting 4 feet away from some one in an office makes no difference if germs are spreading through air ventilation/condition units any way. My office the windows are nailed shut so you can’t even open them. It’s like a plane so effectively just a giant Petri dish but without filters in the ventilation. |
Apart from the fact that the science says this is not airborne in that way. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| A very alarming chart. on 12:09 - Mar 21 with 836 views | badadski |
| A very alarming chart. on 12:07 - Mar 21 by sparks |
Apart from the fact that the science says this is not airborne in that way. |
If so feel a little better then. | | | |
| A very alarming chart. on 12:11 - Mar 21 with 827 views | pointofblue |
| A very alarming chart. on 12:07 - Mar 21 by sparks |
Apart from the fact that the science says this is not airborne in that way. |
Isn’t it? That’s a relief and explains the actions taken at my office. | |
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| A very alarming chart. on 12:12 - Mar 21 with 823 views | sparks |
| A very alarming chart. on 12:09 - Mar 21 by badadski |
If so feel a little better then. |
Its said to be in water droplets from nose and mouth. Hence the 2m guidance. Generally speaking, they arent expecting it to spread through aircon etc. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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