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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? 12:50 - Mar 24 with 4982 viewsThisIsMyUsername

A month? Three months? Six months?

I've just come to terms with it. Was in the process this morning of planning to meet up with a friend who lives a 5 minute walk away, at either of our places. I was trying to justify to myself why it was OK to do so: we're both young, both asymptomatic, neither of us would be going near anyone vulnerable etc.

But then the thought kicked in that what you'd be doing is ultimately irresponsible, and about what would you say you were doing if a police officer asked you etc ('I'm just going for my daily walk, Officer). So we've both accepted it's wrong and admitted defeat until the lockdown is lifted slightly.

I suppose at a time like this you just have to accept that everyone is in the same boat and it's going to be an extremely fecking boring next however long.

On a side note, does anyone else expect that things like domestic violence incidents, and mental health issues such as depression are going to skyrocket?
[Post edited 24 Mar 2020 12:51]

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 12:56 - Mar 24 with 3913 viewsAndrew4445

It still feels like any changes are optional, the list of allowed workers and reasons for leaving home are still broad enough that those who want to will carry on as before.
The best thing is to keep doing what you can to keep yourself and yours safe, that means applying the guidance as rigidly as you can - I appreciate this is very difficult for the self employed so this said without judgement there.

For what it is worth, I think you made the roght choice not to go.

Realistically we go as we are for a week and then if needed tighter controls willc ome in.
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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 12:59 - Mar 24 with 3888 viewsSarge

If neither of you are ill and neither of you are contacting anybody else then I don’t see where the harm is. I’m not saying you should do it, I’m saying that these rules are stupid without nuance but then the public has shown they can’t be trusted with that. It’s been 12 hours and the mental toll on me is far worse than any respiratory illness would be.
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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:04 - Mar 24 with 3853 viewssparks

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 12:59 - Mar 24 by Sarge

If neither of you are ill and neither of you are contacting anybody else then I don’t see where the harm is. I’m not saying you should do it, I’m saying that these rules are stupid without nuance but then the public has shown they can’t be trusted with that. It’s been 12 hours and the mental toll on me is far worse than any respiratory illness would be.


The harm is clearly that if one has picked up the virus, we will then potentially have two with it. With the exponential way this spreads, that increases the spread vastly more than just one extra person.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:06 - Mar 24 with 3840 viewsDarth_Koont

I think we'll have to see how the next 2-3 weeks goes.

And I certainly don't think a lockdown over the next 6-12 months is desirable or indeed practicable - unless it's isolating over 70s and at-risk groups. Without going all Trump (who should definitely be focusing the US and his supporters on lockdown for the next few weeks), the wider cost and risk to the world will start to catch up very quickly.

But the key to easing the restrictions is the ability to test if someone has had the virus. Until we can do that on a wider scale then there's little point in exposing the vast majority of the population, spreading the virus uncontrollably but effectively still being at square one with the overall risk and threat to healthcare resources.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:06 - Mar 24 with 3837 viewsThisIsMyUsername

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 12:56 - Mar 24 by Andrew4445

It still feels like any changes are optional, the list of allowed workers and reasons for leaving home are still broad enough that those who want to will carry on as before.
The best thing is to keep doing what you can to keep yourself and yours safe, that means applying the guidance as rigidly as you can - I appreciate this is very difficult for the self employed so this said without judgement there.

For what it is worth, I think you made the roght choice not to go.

Realistically we go as we are for a week and then if needed tighter controls willc ome in.


We're not in a big city where contact with others is hard to avoid etc. Realistically we could have done so without any consequences for us or anyone else, and I don't think it would have been at all selfish, but it just feels 'wrong'. I guess the wider lockdown has come into place because people in London etc were just carrying on and doing whatever they wanted. So those of us who live in less densely populated areas are all having to suffer, but to go against the guidance would be hypocritical.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:08 - Mar 24 with 3824 viewsSwansea_Blue

I suspect an escalation of measures over the next 2 weeks, with stricter enforcement, as people still don’t seem to grasp what’s going on. Based on other countries, we’re looking at at least 6 weeks lockdown.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:10 - Mar 24 with 3805 viewsDarth_Koont

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:04 - Mar 24 by sparks

The harm is clearly that if one has picked up the virus, we will then potentially have two with it. With the exponential way this spreads, that increases the spread vastly more than just one extra person.


Indeed. If it can be spread when you're asymptomatic then it doesn't matter how you feel or whether you yourself are at any realistic risk due to age and health.

There are no exceptions if we're controlling the spread as we are now.
[Post edited 24 Mar 2020 13:12]

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:17 - Mar 24 with 3763 viewsStokieBlue

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 12:59 - Mar 24 by Sarge

If neither of you are ill and neither of you are contacting anybody else then I don’t see where the harm is. I’m not saying you should do it, I’m saying that these rules are stupid without nuance but then the public has shown they can’t be trusted with that. It’s been 12 hours and the mental toll on me is far worse than any respiratory illness would be.


"It’s been 12 hours and the mental toll on me is far worse than any respiratory illness would be."

I agree this isn't great but the point of it is not just to stop you getting the illness it's to stop it spreading in the population to those that are much more susceptible.

SB

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:20 - Mar 24 with 3746 viewsGeoffSentence

I think Wuhan was on lockdown for about 6 weeks wasnt it?

I also reckon there will be an increase in domestic violence, but on the other hand there will be fewer incidents caused by people getting pissed up in the pub and causing bother.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:23 - Mar 24 with 3731 viewsSwansea_Blue

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:17 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue

"It’s been 12 hours and the mental toll on me is far worse than any respiratory illness would be."

I agree this isn't great but the point of it is not just to stop you getting the illness it's to stop it spreading in the population to those that are much more susceptible.

SB


Not to mention 12 hours on a respirator in an ICU would probably change that viewpoint!

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:24 - Mar 24 with 3718 viewshype313

Think we need to look at China and see what happens once they ease restrictions, if they do and it suddenly spikes again then we are all in this for the long haul. Obviously if a vaccine comes along then great, but that's a long way off yet too.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:32 - Mar 24 with 3666 viewsWeWereZombies

On your last sentence, I do not think that is a 'side note', there will be multiple mental health issues after this lockdown. I would hope that, once everyone else is as sensible as you have just been, the daily briefings switch from the prescriptive to a more reassuring tone and that they are given by medical and psychological experts to give comfort and a sense of light at the end of the tunnel. But that will also need the strategy to be working.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:32 - Mar 24 with 3677 viewshomer_123

We are looking at 6 to 8 weeks but even then, things won't go back to normal. The NHS are planning to be at full capacity for around 6 to 8 months.

So, even after the lock down, there will still be social distancing - it will be a phased return. And that depends on any rebound.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:39 - Mar 24 with 3639 viewsJ2BLUE

Google Michael Levitt. He's been fairly accurate on this whole thing and he thinks it will be over quicker than many others. I'm not saying he's right but it's interesting to hear another point of view.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:39 - Mar 24 with 3623 viewsBasuco

The length of time is totally dependent on how well it is observed, if a large enough group of stupid people ignore it and not complete all the precautions of 2 metres apart and hand washing, then it will be much longer.
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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:47 - Mar 24 with 3568 viewsOhDavidMcgoldrick

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:39 - Mar 24 by Basuco

The length of time is totally dependent on how well it is observed, if a large enough group of stupid people ignore it and not complete all the precautions of 2 metres apart and hand washing, then it will be much longer.


I think by September the government will be pressing themselves to get schools back on time to prevent more social disruption - but I cannot see a sporting fixture being played with big crowds again in 2020,

Trump seems to be going completely the other way and saying no economic disruption at all costs, after their lock-down ends over the next few weeks.

So all in all, my prediction would be this current state (if not worse) for until June/July,

August to slowly open non-essential shops etc, school to start in September. Big gatherings again by January.

I base this on zero expertise and rather trying to mentally prepare myself for 2020 to be a write off.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:49 - Mar 24 with 3558 viewsSamWhiteUK

Well done for making the correct responsible decision. Everyone has to follow the same rules, or we'll just end up with everyone making excuses for themselves. It's not about the individual, it's about everyone
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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:54 - Mar 24 with 3535 viewshomer_123

Just for information - Wuhan is about to see a lifting of its lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52016139

Went into lockdown late Jan (around the 20th I think).

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:57 - Mar 24 with 3503 viewshomer_123

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:39 - Mar 24 by J2BLUE

Google Michael Levitt. He's been fairly accurate on this whole thing and he thinks it will be over quicker than many others. I'm not saying he's right but it's interesting to hear another point of view.


Hasn't he stated that a lot depends on good social distancing though?

I'm not against this being over sooner rather than later!!!

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:01 - Mar 24 with 3468 viewsJ2BLUE

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:57 - Mar 24 by homer_123

Hasn't he stated that a lot depends on good social distancing though?

I'm not against this being over sooner rather than later!!!


He has but he seems quite relaxed about it and doesn't seem to suggest draconian measures.

He says Italy's numbers are improving based on his model so hopefully they'll see some good progress soon.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:06 - Mar 24 with 3438 viewsPinewoodblue

Once the necessary law is in place expect the restrictions to be tightened. When we are established on the downward slope think we can expect restrictions will be eased possible on an age related basis. First those under 35, then raise in 5 year increments.

Don’t expect schools to reopen fully before the new school year.

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:06 - Mar 24 with 3440 viewsBlueBadger

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:39 - Mar 24 by J2BLUE

Google Michael Levitt. He's been fairly accurate on this whole thing and he thinks it will be over quicker than many others. I'm not saying he's right but it's interesting to hear another point of view.


One of my consultant colleagues has been running a day-by-day '14 days after, like-for-like' graph comparing us with Italy. Yesterday saw us take a divergence from Italy. Early days tho and no graph yet today.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10159814958623747&set=a.1015133978537874

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:06 - Mar 24 with 3439 viewsFtnfwest

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:57 - Mar 24 by homer_123

Hasn't he stated that a lot depends on good social distancing though?

I'm not against this being over sooner rather than later!!!


Homie, reference your golf game the other day are courses staying open? I know up until last night they were and i would have thought still represent a potential exercise for the day option (although probably stretching it, maybe once a week acceptable). Anyway was trying to get back into it this year, which would have started with the driving range although not sure whether they are open. May have to take a bucket of balls down the local field for half an hour.
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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:08 - Mar 24 with 3438 viewsBlueBadger

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 13:32 - Mar 24 by homer_123

We are looking at 6 to 8 weeks but even then, things won't go back to normal. The NHS are planning to be at full capacity for around 6 to 8 months.

So, even after the lock down, there will still be social distancing - it will be a phased return. And that depends on any rebound.


Personally, it's the anaesthetists who are going to be on-call for Obs and Gynae late December/early January that I pity...
[Post edited 24 Mar 2020 14:40]

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So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:09 - Mar 24 with 3420 viewsITFC_Forever

So realistically how long do we expect this total social lockdown to last? on 14:06 - Mar 24 by Ftnfwest

Homie, reference your golf game the other day are courses staying open? I know up until last night they were and i would have thought still represent a potential exercise for the day option (although probably stretching it, maybe once a week acceptable). Anyway was trying to get back into it this year, which would have started with the driving range although not sure whether they are open. May have to take a bucket of balls down the local field for half an hour.


Pretty sure I read this morning all golf courses are closing....

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