| Really bad day today 16:12 - Mar 24 with 2747 views | GeoffSentence |
87 UK deaths. More than a 50% jump over the last few days. I really hope today is an outlier and we get on top of this quickly. |  |
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| Really bad day today on 16:15 - Mar 24 with 2717 views | StokieBlue |
I hope so as well but unfortunately it's basically progressing as you'd expect an exponential curve to progress. It's hard to know how effective any measures have been due to the lagging nature of the symptoms.
The overall infection numbers here seem to be progressing slower than expected though if you compare them to other comparable places. New York city alone has more cases that the entire UK. The US really is looking in quite a lot of trouble :(.
SB |  |
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| Really bad day today on 16:19 - Mar 24 with 2665 views | GeoffSentence |
| Really bad day today on 16:15 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
I hope so as well but unfortunately it's basically progressing as you'd expect an exponential curve to progress. It's hard to know how effective any measures have been due to the lagging nature of the symptoms.
The overall infection numbers here seem to be progressing slower than expected though if you compare them to other comparable places. New York city alone has more cases that the entire UK. The US really is looking in quite a lot of trouble :(.
SB |
if it does get out of control there I expect better health care to be big on the electoral agenda over there. | |
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| Really bad day today on 16:21 - Mar 24 with 2647 views | monytowbray |
| Really bad day today on 16:15 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
I hope so as well but unfortunately it's basically progressing as you'd expect an exponential curve to progress. It's hard to know how effective any measures have been due to the lagging nature of the symptoms.
The overall infection numbers here seem to be progressing slower than expected though if you compare them to other comparable places. New York city alone has more cases that the entire UK. The US really is looking in quite a lot of trouble :(.
SB |
Tell me about it, my daughter lives out there and her family have pretty much ignored it. She is more sensible thankfully but I’ve told her to keep following social distancing and hygiene at home. |  |
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| Really bad day today on 16:24 - Mar 24 with 2615 views | homer_123 |
| Really bad day today on 16:15 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
I hope so as well but unfortunately it's basically progressing as you'd expect an exponential curve to progress. It's hard to know how effective any measures have been due to the lagging nature of the symptoms.
The overall infection numbers here seem to be progressing slower than expected though if you compare them to other comparable places. New York city alone has more cases that the entire UK. The US really is looking in quite a lot of trouble :(.
SB |
Trump doesn't seem to think so.....
I posted earlier that the NY Mayor was saying they are running incredibly low on healthcare supplies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51998429 [Post edited 24 Mar 2020 16:26]
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| Really bad day today on 16:24 - Mar 24 with 2614 views | Illinoisblue |
| Really bad day today on 16:15 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
I hope so as well but unfortunately it's basically progressing as you'd expect an exponential curve to progress. It's hard to know how effective any measures have been due to the lagging nature of the symptoms.
The overall infection numbers here seem to be progressing slower than expected though if you compare them to other comparable places. New York city alone has more cases that the entire UK. The US really is looking in quite a lot of trouble :(.
SB |
Parts of the US - mostly high density population, ie big cities - are in lots of trouble. |  |
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| Really bad day today on 16:27 - Mar 24 with 2584 views | StokieBlue |
| Really bad day today on 16:21 - Mar 24 by monytowbray |
Tell me about it, my daughter lives out there and her family have pretty much ignored it. She is more sensible thankfully but I’ve told her to keep following social distancing and hygiene at home. |
When you have a big orange thing in charge of the country saying it's no worse than flu and that actually why can't they just use a flu vaccine on C-19 and then get the economy going again you know things are going to get bad.
New York state are making provisions for 140,000 hospital beds within the next 2 weeks and infections in the state are getting up near 30,000 which is nearly x4 the UK:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/troubling-and-astronomical-coronavirus-cases-inc
Keep feeding her the good advice.
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| Really bad day today on 16:28 - Mar 24 with 2571 views | StokieBlue |
| Really bad day today on 16:24 - Mar 24 by Illinoisblue |
Parts of the US - mostly high density population, ie big cities - are in lots of trouble. |
That is probably accurate for the initial wave but how many people fled the cities 10 days ago and have been spreading it all that time whilst feeling fine?
You're certainly right the bigger cities look in for a rough ride.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Really bad day today on 16:32 - Mar 24 with 2541 views | Guthrum |
| Really bad day today on 16:15 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
I hope so as well but unfortunately it's basically progressing as you'd expect an exponential curve to progress. It's hard to know how effective any measures have been due to the lagging nature of the symptoms.
The overall infection numbers here seem to be progressing slower than expected though if you compare them to other comparable places. New York city alone has more cases that the entire UK. The US really is looking in quite a lot of trouble :(.
SB |
It's not quite a steady exponential growth curve. If you look at the daily death rates, it's going up in steps. They were steady at between zero and two for nine days, then jumped to 11 - 20 for four days, then 32, 41, 33, 56, 48, 54, now having jumped again to 87.
Possibly that reperesents iterations of the infection cycle, I don't know. |  |
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| A mutual aquaintance of ours (I believe).... on 16:32 - Mar 24 with 2535 views | Bloots |
| Really bad day today on 16:24 - Mar 24 by Illinoisblue |
Parts of the US - mostly high density population, ie big cities - are in lots of trouble. |
….is in NJ.
He's sh*tting himself |  |
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| A mutual aquaintance of ours (I believe).... on 16:34 - Mar 24 with 2527 views | homer_123 |
| A mutual aquaintance of ours (I believe).... on 16:32 - Mar 24 by Bloots |
….is in NJ.
He's sh*tting himself |
On the plus side, that'll be Norovirus. | |
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| Really bad day today on 16:34 - Mar 24 with 2527 views | BloomBlue |
| Really bad day today on 16:28 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
That is probably accurate for the initial wave but how many people fled the cities 10 days ago and have been spreading it all that time whilst feeling fine?
You're certainly right the bigger cities look in for a rough ride.
SB |
When I worked for a US company vast numbers of those who worked in NYC headed 'Up state' at weekends as that is where they had their homes and basically only rented in NYC. |  | | |
| Really bad day today on 16:36 - Mar 24 with 2507 views | StokieBlue |
| Really bad day today on 16:32 - Mar 24 by Guthrum |
It's not quite a steady exponential growth curve. If you look at the daily death rates, it's going up in steps. They were steady at between zero and two for nine days, then jumped to 11 - 20 for four days, then 32, 41, 33, 56, 48, 54, now having jumped again to 87.
Possibly that reperesents iterations of the infection cycle, I don't know. |
To be honest I hadn't looked at the exact numbers, I more meant it's not linear.
Are deaths the best way to track it though? I would have though infections followed an exponential curve whilst deaths, having a lower number in the sample size, would be affected by individual circumstances to a large degree and would thus move as you've highlighted as it's not smoothed given the lower numbers.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Really bad day today on 16:46 - Mar 24 with 2450 views | Guthrum |
| Really bad day today on 16:36 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
To be honest I hadn't looked at the exact numbers, I more meant it's not linear.
Are deaths the best way to track it though? I would have though infections followed an exponential curve whilst deaths, having a lower number in the sample size, would be affected by individual circumstances to a large degree and would thus move as you've highlighted as it's not smoothed given the lower numbers.
SB |
Infections would be, if we had a more comprehensive test programme. As it is, they only really cover hospitalisations, i.e. the most severe cases. Tho it is useful for general trends.
One thing I've been keeping an eye on is the daily proportion of positive tests out of those conducted. It climbed steadily up to just over 4% on 10th March, then was stable at just under 7% for four days. There was an erratic period up to 19th, ranging from a low of 4.47% up to 11.7%, then a massive outlier of 30.32% on 20th. Thereafter it was 17.72%, 12.04%, 17.25% and 21.98% today.
(I have a spreadsheet)  [Post edited 24 Mar 2020 16:48]
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| Really bad day today on 16:52 - Mar 24 with 2409 views | StokieBlue |
| Really bad day today on 16:46 - Mar 24 by Guthrum |
Infections would be, if we had a more comprehensive test programme. As it is, they only really cover hospitalisations, i.e. the most severe cases. Tho it is useful for general trends.
One thing I've been keeping an eye on is the daily proportion of positive tests out of those conducted. It climbed steadily up to just over 4% on 10th March, then was stable at just under 7% for four days. There was an erratic period up to 19th, ranging from a low of 4.47% up to 11.7%, then a massive outlier of 30.32% on 20th. Thereafter it was 17.72%, 12.04%, 17.25% and 21.98% today.
(I have a spreadsheet) [Post edited 24 Mar 2020 16:48]
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With the lockdown, now would seem an excellent time for you to teach yourself a bit of Python, Pandas, Numpy and Matplotlib.
Could even do some fitting and extrapolation based on your data using some ML libraries.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Really bad day today on 16:56 - Mar 24 with 2386 views | Radlett_blue |
| Really bad day today on 16:36 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
To be honest I hadn't looked at the exact numbers, I more meant it's not linear.
Are deaths the best way to track it though? I would have though infections followed an exponential curve whilst deaths, having a lower number in the sample size, would be affected by individual circumstances to a large degree and would thus move as you've highlighted as it's not smoothed given the lower numbers.
SB |
Any infections number is going to be highly dependent on (1) how many people are tested and (2) the likelihood of those tested having the disease - this will be much higher if only people showing extreme symptoms are tested than if random people are tested.
The only reliable indicator is deaths, although that is a lagging indicator and it's likely to keep rising for the next 2 weeks and only then can we try to estimate if recent measures have been slowing the spread. |  |
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| Really bad day today on 17:03 - Mar 24 with 2346 views | StokieBlue |
| Really bad day today on 16:56 - Mar 24 by Radlett_blue |
Any infections number is going to be highly dependent on (1) how many people are tested and (2) the likelihood of those tested having the disease - this will be much higher if only people showing extreme symptoms are tested than if random people are tested.
The only reliable indicator is deaths, although that is a lagging indicator and it's likely to keep rising for the next 2 weeks and only then can we try to estimate if recent measures have been slowing the spread. |
Whilst I agree on the testing being a driver in the infections statistics I am not sure that deaths are a reliable indicator either as to how it's spreading.
What if it hits a specific care home or even area that has a higher proportion of people with severe underlying conditions. Given the death figures are relatively small that could hugely skew the results as there aren't enough deaths to smooth any outliers.
I think we can agree that given the data there are many assumptions in the estimates.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Really bad day today on 17:03 - Mar 24 with 2345 views | Guthrum |
| Really bad day today on 16:52 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
With the lockdown, now would seem an excellent time for you to teach yourself a bit of Python, Pandas, Numpy and Matplotlib.
Could even do some fitting and extrapolation based on your data using some ML libraries.
SB |
Extrapolation of these figures is really tricky, as we have so few reliable datasets to match it to, with all of those available having their own peculiarities creating dissimilarities with the UK situation. We don't have an accurate picture of all the factors at play.
I was going to have a look at Python a few months back, but hadn't found the time. Used to programme in Basic a lot when I was younger - starting in the very early '80s - and was missing the ability to write little bits of script to do tasks (particularly repetitive ones). | |
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| Really bad day today on 17:05 - Mar 24 with 2334 views | StokieBlue |
| Really bad day today on 17:03 - Mar 24 by Guthrum |
Extrapolation of these figures is really tricky, as we have so few reliable datasets to match it to, with all of those available having their own peculiarities creating dissimilarities with the UK situation. We don't have an accurate picture of all the factors at play.
I was going to have a look at Python a few months back, but hadn't found the time. Used to programme in Basic a lot when I was younger - starting in the very early '80s - and was missing the ability to write little bits of script to do tasks (particularly repetitive ones). |
The extrapolation would almost certainly be total nonsense as you've pointed out but it's still a good learning experience if we all end up inside all of the time.
Happy to help if you decide to take a look.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Really bad day today on 17:10 - Mar 24 with 2301 views | Guthrum |
| Really bad day today on 17:05 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
The extrapolation would almost certainly be total nonsense as you've pointed out but it's still a good learning experience if we all end up inside all of the time.
Happy to help if you decide to take a look.
SB |
Thanks. | |
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| Really bad day today on 17:48 - Mar 24 with 2223 views | Trequartista |
I think a big jump expected as deaths per day had actually gone down in the last 2 days. Not sure if significant but the death count was correct at 1pm, thought it was 9am on previous days?
Worse news is in Italy where it has jumped up again to 743 having previously descended from 793 to 602, meaning we can't say it has peaked there. |  |
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| Really bad day today on 22:35 - Mar 24 with 1954 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Really bad day today on 16:28 - Mar 24 by StokieBlue |
That is probably accurate for the initial wave but how many people fled the cities 10 days ago and have been spreading it all that time whilst feeling fine?
You're certainly right the bigger cities look in for a rough ride.
SB |
Know a family who moved from NYC to Cleveland three weeks ago just to get out of the City. |  |
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| Really bad day today on 22:44 - Mar 24 with 1933 views | Churchman |
| Really bad day today on 16:46 - Mar 24 by Guthrum |
Infections would be, if we had a more comprehensive test programme. As it is, they only really cover hospitalisations, i.e. the most severe cases. Tho it is useful for general trends.
One thing I've been keeping an eye on is the daily proportion of positive tests out of those conducted. It climbed steadily up to just over 4% on 10th March, then was stable at just under 7% for four days. There was an erratic period up to 19th, ranging from a low of 4.47% up to 11.7%, then a massive outlier of 30.32% on 20th. Thereafter it was 17.72%, 12.04%, 17.25% and 21.98% today.
(I have a spreadsheet) [Post edited 24 Mar 2020 16:48]
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That’s interesting stats. I do like stats and trends and while informative, they are of course just indicators, especially in this case where it’s generally accepted that the numbers infected are far in excess of the known figures. % testing varies across countries enormously too.
With the poor people that have died, I am mindful that many have underlying health issues, often age related and it’s hard to know what was the final straw. In other words is C19 truly the cause of death in some instances? I raise this because when my mum died (not C19) they wound up picking a couple of things for the death certificate from a long list of problems. You can’t put ‘old age’ on a DC. This is not to play down impact of Coronavirus in any way, just thoughts on the daily stats. |  | | |
| Really bad day today on 08:05 - Mar 25 with 1750 views | GeoffSentence |
| Really bad day today on 22:28 - Mar 24 by Eireannach_gorm |
Where is harryfrombath when we need him? |
Bath? | |
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| Really bad day today on 08:37 - Mar 25 with 1688 views | Herbivore |
Very nicely played, sir. |  |
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