| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 09:00 - Mar 26 with 2661 views | Guthrum |
Of the 451,355 known cases in the world, only 112,982 have recovered. Combined with the 21,152 dead, that means 70% of people who have caught Covid-19 since the start of December still have it. This is not a short or easily shaken off illness.
NB: The numbers are already higher than those quoted. |  |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:02 - Mar 26 with 2641 views | GeoffSentence |
I put that down to a reporting anomaly. Can't believe it is lingering on that way. |  |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:10 - Mar 26 with 2590 views | m14_blue |
The known cases are by their very nature the most serious cases though surely?
In the UK for instance, only those hospitalised will be counted. |  | | |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:12 - Mar 26 with 2577 views | Bent_double |
I have been wondering about what those figures actually mean.
Probably a stupid question, but do people who are confirmed with covid-19 just keep getting tested until they are negative/show no symptoms? |  |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:12 - Mar 26 with 2575 views | Guthrum |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:02 - Mar 26 by GeoffSentence |
I put that down to a reporting anomaly. Can't believe it is lingering on that way. |
Would have to be a pretty significant anomaly. In the UK (as of 24th), out of the 8,077 who have tested positive, only 145 are classified as having recovered. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:14 - Mar 26 with 2560 views | Guthrum |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:10 - Mar 26 by m14_blue |
The known cases are by their very nature the most serious cases though surely?
In the UK for instance, only those hospitalised will be counted. |
It's the only reliable figures we have to go on. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:17 - Mar 26 with 2550 views | Parsley |
Is it down to the exponential growth of the virus? So most cases occured in the last week or so and people haven't been able to recover in that time? |  | | |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:25 - Mar 26 with 2524 views | m14_blue |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:14 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
It's the only reliable figures we have to go on. |
Yes but we know the overall number of cases to be exponentially higher.
That’s beyond doubt, surely? | | | |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:25 - Mar 26 with 2523 views | Guthrum |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:17 - Mar 26 by Parsley |
Is it down to the exponential growth of the virus? So most cases occured in the last week or so and people haven't been able to recover in that time? |
The Chinese account for most of the recovered figure (about 74k). But that still leaves a very sizeable number (over 100k) who have had the disease for longer than a fortnight. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:26 - Mar 26 with 2523 views | Steve_M |
Two factors to take into account here:
1) Many countries aren't testing enough people so cases, particularly milder ones, are not being reported;
2) Given the growth is exponential, many of that 'counted' number have only been infected for less than two weeks.
The other, less positive, variable is that the recovery period will depend on hospital capacity. |  |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:30 - Mar 26 with 2496 views | GeoffSentence |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:12 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
Would have to be a pretty significant anomaly. In the UK (as of 24th), out of the 8,077 who have tested positive, only 145 are classified as having recovered. |
The reporting of 'recovered' seems to be those whose cases have been closed. So the sort of anomaly that I was referring to was simply that they have got round to completing the paperwork.
I don't know how this thing works in the NHS, but in my own environment, which is based on case work, cases typically don't get closed for ten days to two weeks after there has been a resolution, simply because we have to wait for confirmation.
It's a completely different environment but I would not be at all surprised to see a similar lag in case closure here. Maybe the Badger or someone else inside the health service could clear it up. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:30 - Mar 26 with 2492 views | Guthrum |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:25 - Mar 26 by m14_blue |
Yes but we know the overall number of cases to be exponentially higher.
That’s beyond doubt, surely? |
We don't have any way of quantifiying that number. It might be double, it might be 100 times. It's all wild guesses and statistical modelling (c.f. the Oxford numbers which came out the other day).
Currently, in the UK, around 80% of those admitted to hospital with Covid-like sypmtoms and thus being tested come out negative (as of yesterday 9am 87,490 out of 97,019). Perhaps C-19 is better contained than we think? | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:32 - Mar 26 with 2485 views | m14_blue |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:30 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
We don't have any way of quantifiying that number. It might be double, it might be 100 times. It's all wild guesses and statistical modelling (c.f. the Oxford numbers which came out the other day).
Currently, in the UK, around 80% of those admitted to hospital with Covid-like sypmtoms and thus being tested come out negative (as of yesterday 9am 87,490 out of 97,019). Perhaps C-19 is better contained than we think? |
Is it a good thing if more people than we think have had it, or better if it’s more contained? | | | |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:36 - Mar 26 with 2468 views | Guthrum |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:32 - Mar 26 by m14_blue |
Is it a good thing if more people than we think have had it, or better if it’s more contained? |
More people having it is good in that it would suggest the illness is milder than thought, plus a level of immunity could be built up in the population. But bad in that it might become endemic and keep returning.
Being more contained lowers the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed and stops a lot of people getting sick before we have treatments and vaccines coming on line. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:37 - Mar 26 with 2464 views | Guthrum |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:30 - Mar 26 by GeoffSentence |
The reporting of 'recovered' seems to be those whose cases have been closed. So the sort of anomaly that I was referring to was simply that they have got round to completing the paperwork.
I don't know how this thing works in the NHS, but in my own environment, which is based on case work, cases typically don't get closed for ten days to two weeks after there has been a resolution, simply because we have to wait for confirmation.
It's a completely different environment but I would not be at all surprised to see a similar lag in case closure here. Maybe the Badger or someone else inside the health service could clear it up. |
That would certainly account for a considerable chunk of cases. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:42 - Mar 26 with 2443 views | Pinewoodblue |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:30 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
We don't have any way of quantifiying that number. It might be double, it might be 100 times. It's all wild guesses and statistical modelling (c.f. the Oxford numbers which came out the other day).
Currently, in the UK, around 80% of those admitted to hospital with Covid-like sypmtoms and thus being tested come out negative (as of yesterday 9am 87,490 out of 97,019). Perhaps C-19 is better contained than we think? |
It is also worth remembering each country has its own way of recording. France doesn’t record cases of people who die at home or in a nursing home only those who die in hospital.
Those who are hospitalised are presumably the more serious cases. Those more likely to die.
In the early days in Washington State they were only discovering corvid-19 was present after the victim had died. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 9:44]
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:45 - Mar 26 with 2404 views | NthQldITFC |
70%?
It could be much higher, it could be much lower. There's widespread over-analysis of (inevitably) uncontrolled data going on at the moment.
We need to concentrate on the practical advice for the moment, and leave the analysis until we have properly controlled test samples and regimes, probably using a reliable antibody test.
At the moment the testing is in firefighting mode, and is thus not in any way comparable within national health systems, let alone across the world.
Edit: Tautology removed, taken out, deleted. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 9:58]
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| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:49 - Mar 26 with 2391 views | Lord_Lucan |
IMHO pretty much all of the data so far is unbelievable
Countries simply must be testing and recording statistics in different ways. |  |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:53 - Mar 26 with 2366 views | Pinewoodblue |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:49 - Mar 26 by Lord_Lucan |
IMHO pretty much all of the data so far is unbelievable
Countries simply must be testing and recording statistics in different ways. |
Suspect in some cases they are adjusting their methods of recording data to make things look better which is pointless. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:57 - Mar 26 with 2338 views | Lord_Lucan |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:45 - Mar 26 by NthQldITFC |
70%?
It could be much higher, it could be much lower. There's widespread over-analysis of (inevitably) uncontrolled data going on at the moment.
We need to concentrate on the practical advice for the moment, and leave the analysis until we have properly controlled test samples and regimes, probably using a reliable antibody test.
At the moment the testing is in firefighting mode, and is thus not in any way comparable within national health systems, let alone across the world.
Edit: Tautology removed, taken out, deleted. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 9:58]
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It's becoming like the Gulf War briefings. Everyone used to wait to see how many military installations we have blown up, now everyone is sitting in their armchairs waiting to see the latest death count.
Edit; I imagine people pay more attention to the death count than they do to the measures they should follow in order to reduce it. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 10:05]
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 10:06 - Mar 26 with 2300 views | NthQldITFC |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:53 - Mar 26 by Pinewoodblue |
Suspect in some cases they are adjusting their methods of recording data to make things look better which is pointless. |
There's been strong allusion to that in the media with regard to at least one country for a while now. It's not necessarily pointless though when balanced against economics and social engineering.
It's a constant balancing act really, whereas it could be strongly argued that complete transparency might result in a more shocked but also more compliant public. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 10:11 - Mar 26 with 2284 views | NthQldITFC |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:57 - Mar 26 by Lord_Lucan |
It's becoming like the Gulf War briefings. Everyone used to wait to see how many military installations we have blown up, now everyone is sitting in their armchairs waiting to see the latest death count.
Edit; I imagine people pay more attention to the death count than they do to the measures they should follow in order to reduce it. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 10:05]
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Yeah, we'd be in a much less stressed state if we were all pseudo-artists, rather than pseudo-scientists and -mathematicians.
It's 38.3% crazier than it used to be, that's for sure. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 10:54 - Mar 26 with 2196 views | Darth_Koont |
Isn't that because the vast majority of recorded cases were because they needed hospitalisation? And a lot of these are just in the past couple of weeks
2-3 weeks for a patient with severe respiratory difficulties and/or pneumonia isn't that rare.
Edit: Just saw Geoff's post re: case closure. That makes a lot of sense and probably accounts for a high proportion of these. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 10:57]
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 11:08 - Mar 26 with 2159 views | catch74 |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 10:54 - Mar 26 by Darth_Koont |
Isn't that because the vast majority of recorded cases were because they needed hospitalisation? And a lot of these are just in the past couple of weeks
2-3 weeks for a patient with severe respiratory difficulties and/or pneumonia isn't that rare.
Edit: Just saw Geoff's post re: case closure. That makes a lot of sense and probably accounts for a high proportion of these. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 10:57]
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The case closed figure is 16% mortality, assuming deaths are updated quicker than survival - otherwise, the serious cases that have been tested have a 1 in 6 mortality. Given 1/2 million now infected and rapidly rising, worldwide that would be horrendous. |  |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 11:41 - Mar 26 with 2113 views | Darth_Koont |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 11:08 - Mar 26 by catch74 |
The case closed figure is 16% mortality, assuming deaths are updated quicker than survival - otherwise, the serious cases that have been tested have a 1 in 6 mortality. Given 1/2 million now infected and rapidly rising, worldwide that would be horrendous. |
But it's predominantly the most severe cases that are being recorded so not sure of that.
In my sister's case who's a London hospital doctor recovering from it plus her husband and two daughters who are also coming through it, that's 4 cases that aren't on the list because they self-isolated and could deal with it. When the antibody test comes in a couple of weeks that shows if people have been infected and have recovered, they will be cases that can be added to the total.
The big issue that they've had looking at this pandemic is that the actual population data for the major modelling isn't there yet and they're piecing it together bit by bit. The information about who has it and has had it just isn't there. So trying to extrapolate from the very worst cases is almost impossible.
It'll claim a great many lives and needs to be taken seriously but the best case and worst case scenarios are still miles apart. | |
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| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 11:49 - Mar 26 with 2080 views | Ryorry |
| For me, probably the most alarming stat about C-19 on 09:30 - Mar 26 by GeoffSentence |
The reporting of 'recovered' seems to be those whose cases have been closed. So the sort of anomaly that I was referring to was simply that they have got round to completing the paperwork.
I don't know how this thing works in the NHS, but in my own environment, which is based on case work, cases typically don't get closed for ten days to two weeks after there has been a resolution, simply because we have to wait for confirmation.
It's a completely different environment but I would not be at all surprised to see a similar lag in case closure here. Maybe the Badger or someone else inside the health service could clear it up. |
That was my take on it too - they simply haven't yet had time to get round to dealing with the bureaucracy & updating the stats (as well as getting round to doing the testing after people are thought to have recovered). |  |
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